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Monetary Policy Transmission in a Model with Animal Spirits and House Price Booms and Busts

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  • Bofinger, Peter
  • Mayer, Eric
  • Gareis, Johannes
  • ,
Abstract
Can monetary policy trigger pronounced boom-bust cycles in house prices and create persistent business cycles? We address this question by building heuristics into an otherwise standard DSGE model. As a result, monetary policy sets off waves of optimism and pessimism ('animal spirits') that drive house prices, which, in turn, have strong repercussions on the business cycle. We compare our findings to a standard model with rational expectations by means of impulse responses. We suggest that a standard Taylor rule is not well-suited to maintain macroeconomic stability. Instead, an augmented rule that incorporates house prices is shown to be superior.

Suggested Citation

  • Bofinger, Peter & Mayer, Eric & Gareis, Johannes & ,, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission in a Model with Animal Spirits and House Price Booms and Busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 8804, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8804
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    2. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2017. "Modeling consumer confidence and its role for expectation formation: A horse race," Economics Working Papers 2017-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    3. Orlando Gomes, 2017. "Heterogeneous wage setting and endogenous macro volatility," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(1), pages 27-57, April.
    4. Engelbert Stockhammer & Christina Wolf, 2019. "Building blocks for the macroeconomics and political economy of housing," Japanese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1-2), pages 43-67, April.
    5. Domenico Delli Gatti & Gabriele Iannotta, 2022. "Behavioural Credit Cycles," CESifo Working Paper Series 9954, CESifo.
    6. Bas Aarle & Cindy Moons, 2017. "Sentiment and Uncertainty Fluctuations and Their Effects on the Euro Area Business Cycle," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 225-251, November.
    7. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2015. "Current account dynamics and the housing boom and bust cycle in Spain," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 94, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis, 2023. "Debt-GDP cycles in historical perspective: the case of the USA (1889–2014)," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 317-335.
    9. Tan, Zhengxun & Tang, Qianqian & Meng, Juan, 2022. "The effect of monetary policy on China’s housing prices before and after 2017: A dynamic analysis in DSGE model," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Dajčman Silvo, 2020. "Economic policy and confidence of economic agents – a causal relationship?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(4), pages 471-484, December.
    11. Jump, Robert Calvert & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Behavioural New Keynesian models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-77.
    12. Filippo Gusella & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2021. "Testing fundamentalist–momentum trader financial cycles: An empirical analysis via the Kalman filter," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 758-797, November.
    13. Filippo Gusella, 2019. "Modelling Minskyan financial cycles with fundamentalist and extrapolative price strategies: An empirical analysis via the Kalman filter approach," Working Papers - Economics wp2019_24.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    14. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten & Cavallero, Julian, 2019. "Short and medium term financial-real cycles: An empirical assessment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 81-96.
    15. Orlando Gomes, 2015. "Sentiment Cyclicality," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 104-134, December.
    16. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2021. "Forecast heuristics, consumer expectations, and New-Keynesian macroeconomics: A Horse race," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 493-511.
    17. Stefan Ederer & Miriam Rehm, 2018. "Making sense of Piketty’s ‘fundamental laws’ in a Post-Keynesian framework," Working Papers PKWP1808, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    18. Markus Demary, 2017. "Yield curve responses to market sentiments and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(2), pages 309-344, July.
    19. Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2014. "Towards a consumer sentiment channel of monetary policy," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 91, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    20. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    21. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik, 2020. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices - How Strong is the Transmission?," Working Papers 2020/14, Czech National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Animal spirits; Housing markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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