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Economic Crises and Migration: Learning from the Past and the Present

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  • Tim Green
  • L. Alan Winters
Abstract
This article considers the effects of past economic crises and cycles on migration with a view predicting the effects of the crisis of 2008–10. It then uses very recent data to test these as hypotheses. It examines the great migration to the New World in the nineteenth century (including in response to the Irish potato blight) in some detail because this was largely unhampered by changes in migration policy. It then more briefly looks at twentieth‐century experience – the 1930s, the 1970s and Asia in 1997–98. The hypotheses tested are that migration is reduced by downturns in destination countries but hardly affected by the cycle in home countries; that such downturns also lead to some return migration; that existing migrants suffer the effects of downturns more severely than natives and that although downturns may affect the timing of migration policy changes, the latter owe more to underlying secular forces than to short‐term shocks. Data from 2008–09 suggest support for each of these hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Green & L. Alan Winters, 2010. "Economic Crises and Migration: Learning from the Past and the Present," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9), pages 1053-1072, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:33:y:2010:i:9:p:1053-1072
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01313.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert E.B. Lucas, 2005. "International Migration and Economic Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3826.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Nowotny, 2011. "Welfare Magnets, Taxation and the Location Decisions of Migrants to the EU," WIFO Working Papers 393, WIFO.
    2. Nikolova, Milena & Graham, Carol, 2015. "In transit: The well-being of migrants from transition and post-transition countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 164-186.
    3. Klaus Nowotny, 2011. "AFLA – Arbeitskräftemobilität und Fachkräftebedarf nach der Liberalisierung des österreichischen Arbeitsmarktes. Migrations- und Pendelpotentiale nach Ende der Übergangsfristen für die Arbeitskräftefr," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41563, April.
    4. Tim Hatton, 2013. "The Slump and Immigration Policy in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 686, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    5. Vincent Fromentin & Olivier Damette & Benteng Zou, 2017. "The Global Economic Crisis and The Effect of Immigrant Workers on Native-born Employment in Europe," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 1068-1088, June.
    6. Alberto Posso & Nicholas Bodanac & Facundo Palermo, 2023. "The impact of economic hardships on the intent to migrate: Micro‐level evidence from Venezuela," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 653-680, March.
    7. Ibrahim Sirkeci & Jeffrey H. Cohen & Dilip Ratha, 2012. "Migration and Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13092.
    8. Philip Anglewicz & Tyler W. Myroniuk, 2018. "Shocks and migration in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(14), pages 321-334.
    9. Vincent Fromentin & Olivier Damette & Benteng Zou, 2014. "The global economic crisis and the effect of immigration on the employment of native-born workers in Europe," DEM Discussion Paper Series 14-22, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.

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