Yeah. I probably should've clarified that in the video. I'm not exactly sure what's going on... Hopefully AP can clarify that. It does appear that you have an unusually high percent chance of hitting 3/5 twice, an unusually low chance of hitting 3/5 three times, and an extremely low (maybe 0?) chance of doing better than that (i.e. 4/5, 5/5, or four or more 3/5s). In my trials, I lost money because of the occasional (roughly 4%) time that I hit 3/5 only once. If that never happened, the house wouldn't have an edge.

I was just annoyed because I hit a ~4%er that made the situation less clear while I was making the vid and because I lost $0.50 because of it .

yeah.
you don't have a clue.

cheers.

don't see how I don't have a clue, perhaps you disagree with me and believe that Stars lack of rakeback for recreational players is insignificant or irrelevant but that hardly means I am clueless. please enlighten me good sir

I'd start with this post which is horrible in pretty much every way:

cant even get to the game, every time I get a general failure, session identifier duplicated, or some other error msg... any ideas?

on my first try it went all 10 rounds with no hits.



on the next 10, rounds 2 and 5 hit 3/5

on the next 10, rounds 5, 7 and 9 hit 3/5

its doing nothing like your results whatsoever? gonna keep trying.

its fixed imo, no patterns now.

Indeed, the pattern is gone.

shame, wanted to exploit this.

LOL, this was at a slot machines forum. I obv did nothing of the sort (just quote posted OP in their correct forum). I was logging in to respond to a PM from a guy who is a poker dealer asking about being a poker player. There is a ton of misguided gamblers there.

Obv casinomeister is the only place to go for any complaints, don't know why I didn't think of them first. Probably cause I don't play any games of chance. Anyway, lesson learned and glad there's places out there like CM.

Since we haven't heard from AP on this yet publicly, has anyone contacted their live support or emailed them?

Yes we have. No comment yet.

Yeah, now we all want to know.

[I play on Bodog a lot, and really want to know. Please.]

The rakeback argument is weak because of the higher rake you pay there...

e.g. paying a $1000 in rake and getting (45%) $450 back is not as good as paying $600 in rake and getting (15%) $90 back.

You other argument that the games are softer is sound and I can't argue that.

Personally I believe that as online poker is at a critical stage in terms of it's legality, I don't want to support a site that can only hurt pokers chances of getting favorable legislation. Otherwise I might have to become a professional keno player (just remembered what thread this was sorry)

Nice work OP!

LOL if anyone thinks AP have 10x micro players b/c no stars rakeback

Wow fixed just like that. So sketchy. I wonder what the new pattern is?
Also I don't think this was likely exploitable as it was rigged for you to lose.
Probably not much different than alot of casino sites.

We have found over the years that there are some very questionable poker sites but I would guess there are many more rigged casino sites. Casino games are much easier to rig imo. Probably just stating the obvoius but...

I used to do some casino game development.

Many of the casual games (like Keno) perform as the OP suggested. They perform one call to determine if the player wins and how much. They then make another call to a table which brings back the 'game play'.

Since someone already determined that the .swf makes one call for the 10 games, and that this patterns appeared to happen with free money but not real money leads me to the following conclusion.

The free money gameplay table was very small and thus, you would predictably get the same games over and over, generating a pattern. Since this wasn't observed in real money (unless I misread this thread), the lookup table was likely much larger for real money play.

They probably 'fixed' this by adding more results to the play money gameplay table.

I have never played on Cereus so no bias. Just a casual observation.

Great find by the OP but likely not anything really wrong with the system.

AP should really disclaim exactly how the game works and that all results are pre-determined prior to gameplay. The site I used to work for was required to disclaim these types of things.

It happened with real money too, and it happened as well when you had 2:1 odds (happening exactly once every 2 games, except one every now and then for the house edge). So, it is very unlikely that it was simply due to having too few "results", since that would not have given such a consistent pattern for any odds.

It looks like there was deterministic results (ie not random) for each individual user that was playing. In other words, a single user's results was independant of other users playing the game at the same time.

I would imagine that there are still deterministic results (ie not random), but that these determined results are now shared amongnst the entire concurrent playing pool.

So if one were to be able to play the game at a time when no one else was playing the game I would posit that the pattern would still be visible.

^ can someone comment if this is more "assumption" or "plausible" i really have no idea, could it be possible they "fixed" the problem rather?

If you're referring to my post, it is completely an assumption on my part.

It is of course possible that they fixed the problem in such a way that the game is truly random now, I just seriously doubt that based on the track record of this POS company.

I grind MTT's and SNGs on AP so the Rake structure is identical to Stars... also if you play a lot and bug AP support for free money they will give it to you, which is more than what Stars or FTP will do for their tilted regs

Yo bro, I understand you, I also play MTTs at AP. But please keep your AP advertisements out of this thread.

funny aruba_rob named himself after one of UB's finest hours

if they can argue w me seems absurd i can't defend my psoition... censorship on an internet message board? as long as no one quotes me I'm done w this thread

ah k, fair enough. stars does have that battle of the planets thing for sng's which can equal quite a significant 'rakeback' % at the lower stakes, I'm pretty sure I have close to 100% rakeback in the under $10 sngs I play because of BOP prizes.