predictability

From predict +‎ -ability.

• IPA^(key): /pɹəˌdɪktəˈbɪlɪti/

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predictability (plural predictabilities)

1. The characteristic of being predictable.
   • 2013, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, “Trendspotting in Asset Markets (Prize in Economic Sciences / Popular Science Background)”, in nobelprize.org‎^[1], retrieved 2013-10-20:

     There are several ways to approach predictability. One way is to investigate whether asset prices over the past few days or weeks can be used to predict tomorrow’s price. The answer is no. Following a large amount of careful statistical work by Fama in the 1960s, researchers now agree that past prices are of very little use in predicting returns over the immediate future. [...] An implication of the excessive swings in stock prices is that a high ratio of price relative to dividends in one year will tend to be followed by a fall in prices relative to dividends over subsequent years, and vice versa. This means that returns follow a predictable pattern in the longer run. Shiller and his collaborators demonstrated such predictability in stock markets as well as bond markets, and other researchers have later confirmed this finding in many other markets.

   • 2023 September 12, Phil McNulty, “Scotland 1-3 England: 'Complete package' Jude Bellingham puts concluding flourish on world-class performance”, in BBC Sport‎^[2]:

     England's fans responded by loudly rallying to Maguire's cause but there was a grim predictability about what happened in the 67th minute, the defender lazily sticking out a leg to divert Robertson's cross past helpless keeper Aaron Ramsdale.