Anchoring in Project Duration Estimation

Matej Lorko, Maroš Servátka and Le Zhang

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The success of a business project often relies on the accuracy of its project duration estimates. Inaccurate and overoptimistic project schedules can result in significant project failures. In this paper, we explore whether the presence of anchors, such as relatively uninformed suggestions or expectations of the duration of project tasks, play a role in the project estimating and planning process. We conduct a controlled laboratory experiment to test the effect of anchors on task duration estimates. We find strong anchoring effects and systematic estimation biases that do not vanish even after the task is repeatedly estimated and performed. We also find that such persisting biases can be caused by not only externally provided anchors, but also by the planner’s own initial task duration estimate.

Keywords: Project management; project planning; time management; anchors; anchoring effect; task duration; duration estimation; time estimation; anchoring bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C91 D83 D92 O21 O22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-08-13
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe, nep-exp and nep-ppm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Anchoring in project duration estimation (2019)
Working Paper: Anchoring in Project Duration Estimation (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:88456

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