A Cholesky-MIDAS model for predicting stock portfolio volatility

Ralf Becker, Adam Clements and Robert O'Neill

Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series from Economics, The University of Manchester

Abstract: This paper presents a simple forecasting technique for variance covariance matrices. It relies significantly on the contribution of Chiriac and Voev (2010) who propose to forecast elements of the Cholesky decomposition which recombine to form a positive definite forecast for the variance covariance matrix. The method proposed here combines this methodology with advances made in the MIDAS literature to produce a forecasting methodology that is flexible, scales easily with the size of the portfolio and produces superior forecasts in simulation experiments and an empirical application.

Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2010
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets, nep-fmk, nep-for and nep-rmg
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Working Paper: A Cholesky-MIDAS model for predicting stock portfolio volatility (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:man:cgbcrp:149

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