Lockdown Fatigue: The Diminishing Effects of Quarantines on the Spread of COVID-19

Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Patricio Goldstein and Luca Sartorio
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Patricio Goldstein: Center for International Development at Harvard University

No 170, Growth Lab Working Papers from Harvard's Growth Lab

Abstract: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) have been for most countries the key policy instrument utilized to contain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of these policies on the virus’ transmission and death toll, for a panel of 152 countries, from the start of the pandemic through December 31, 2020. We find that lockdowns tend to significantly reduce the spread of the virus and the number of related deaths. We also show that this benign impact declines over time: after four months of strict lockdown, NPIs have a significantly weaker contribution in terms of their effect in reducing COVID-19 related fatalities. Part of the fading effect of quarantines could be attributed to an increasing non-compliance with mobility restrictions, as reflected in our estimates of a declining effect of lockdowns on measures of actual mobility. However, we additionally find that a reduction in de facto mobility also exhibits a diminishing effect on health outcomes, which suggests that lockdown fatigues may have introduce broader hurdles to containment policies.

Keywords: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions; COVID-19; lockdowns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-02
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Working Paper: Lockdown fatigue: The diminishing effects of quarantines on the spread of COVID-19 (2021)
Working Paper: Lockdown Fatigue: The Diminishing Effects of Quarantines on the Spread of COVID-19 (2021)
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