Attenuating the forward guidance puzzle: implications for optimal monetary policy

Taisuke Nakata, Ryota Ogaki, Sebastian Schmidt and Paul Yoo

No 2220, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: We examine the implications of less powerful forward guidance for optimal policy using a sticky-price model with an effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates as well as a discounted Euler equation and Phillips curve. When the private-sector agents discount future economic conditions more in making their decisions today, an announced cut in future interest rates becomes less effective in stimulating current economic activity. While the implication of such discounting for optimal policy depends on its degree, we find that, under a wide range of plausible degrees of discounting, it is optimal for the central bank to compensate for the reduced effect of a future rate cut by keeping the policy rate at the ELB for longer. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E61

Keywords: discounted euler equation; discounted phillips curve; effective lower bound; forward guidance; optimal policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
Note: 2179645
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (31)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Attenuating the forward guidance puzzle: Implications for optimal monetary policy (2019)
Working Paper: Attenuating the Forward Guidance Puzzle: Implications for Optimal Monetary Policy (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192220

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