An Alternative Trend-Cycle Decomposition using a State Space Model with Mixtures of Normals: Specifications and Applications to International Data

Tatsuma Wada and Pierre Perron

No WP2005-43, Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series from Boston University - Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper first generalizes the trend-cycle decomposition framework of Perron and Wada (2005) based on an unobserved components models with innovations having a mixtures of Normals distribution, which is able to handle sudden level and slope changes to the trend function as well as outliers. We investigate how important are the differences in the implied trend and cycle compared to the popular decomposition based on the Hodrick and Prescott (HP) (1997) filter. Our results show important qualitative and quantitative differences in the implied cycles for both real GDP and consumption series for the G7 countries. Most of the differences can be ascribed to the fact that the HP filter does not handle well slope changes, level shifts and outliers, while our method does so. Third, we assess how such different cycles affect some socalled “stylized facts” about the relative variability of consumption and output across countries. Our results show again important differences. In particular, the crosscountry consumption correlations are generally higher than the output correlations, except for the period from 1975 to 1985, provided Canada is excluded. Our results therefore provide a partial solution to this puzzle. The evidence is particularly strong for the most recent period.

Keywords: Trend-Cycle Decomposition; Unobserved Components Model; International Business Cycle; Non Gaussian Filter. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2005-10
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Working Paper: An Alternative Trend-Cycle Decomposition using a State Space Model with Mixtures of Normals: Specifications and Applications to International Data (2005)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2005-43

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series from Boston University - Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Program Coordinator ().