Duration dependence, lagged duration dependence, and occurrence dependence in individual employment histories

Markus Niedergesäss

No 26, University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics from University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics

Abstract: This paper investigates the form and magnitude of a variety of state dependence effects for prime-aged men in Germany. I differentiate between three labor market states: employment, unemployment, and out of labor force. Results indicate that all forms of state dependence are present in the data, in particular, there is strong duration dependence in employment and unemployment. Furthermore, past unemployment experiences are scarring and make future unemployment more likely while past employment experiences help to find new employment, but do not help to remain employed. Simulations are conducted in order to investigate the effects of possible interventions in the labor market.

Keywords: state dependence; transition data; event history analysis; unobserved heterogeneity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 C41 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:tuewef:26

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