On the likely extent of falls in Irish house prices

Open Access publications from School of Economics, University College Dublin

Abstract: Looking at house price cycles across the OECD since 1970, we find a strong relationship between the size of the initial rise in price and its subsequent fall. Were this relationship to hold for Ireland, it would predict falls of real house prices of 40 to 60 per cent over a period of 8 to 9 years. The unusually large size of the Irish house building industry suggest that any significant house price fall that does occur could impose a difficult adjustment on the economy.

Keywords: Housing prices; Regression analysis; Macroeconomics; Economic impact; Housing--Prices--Ireland; Ireland--Economic conditions; Regression analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 14 pages
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Published in: Quarterly Economic Commentary, (Summer 2007) 2007

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http://hdl.handle.net/10197/908 Open Access version, 2007 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: On the likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices (2007)
Working Paper: On the likely extent of falls in Irish house prices (2007)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/908

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