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The interaction between microblog sentiment and stock returns: an empirical examination

Published: 01 September 2018 Publication History

Abstract

Opinion mining of microblog messages has become a popular application of business analytics in recent times. Opinions reflected in microblogs have provided businesses with great opportunities to acquire insights into their operating environments in real time. In particular, the relationship between microblog sentiment and stock returns is of great interest to investment professionals and academic researchers across multiple disciplines. We empirically test this complex relationship in a comprehensive study. We perform vector autoregression on a data set containing close to 18 million microblog messages spanning 4 years at the market and the individual stock levels, and at the daily and the hourly frequencies. The results show that the influence of microblog sentiment on stock returns is both statistically and economically significant at the hour level. Microblog sentiment is also largely driven by movements in the market. Moreover, stock returns have a stronger influence on negative sentiment than on positive sentiment. These findings have important implications for both research and practice.

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    cover image MIS Quarterly
    MIS Quarterly  Volume 42, Issue 3
    September 2018
    468 pages
    ISSN:0276-7783
    • Editors:
    • Arun Rai,
    • Ashley Bush
    Issue’s Table of Contents

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    Society for Information Management and The Management Information Systems Research Center

    United States

    Publication History

    Published: 01 September 2018

    Author Tags

    1. big data
    2. microblog
    3. sentiment analysis
    4. social media
    5. stock returns
    6. vector autoregression

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