A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects
<p>Procedure to obtain priority weights of criteria based on D numbers extended consistent fuzzy preference relation.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>A hierarchical construction project risk breakdown structure.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Network structure among construction risk dimensions and criteria.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>D numbers based Multi-Attributive Border Approximation area Comparison (D-MABAC) in risk mitigation strategy selection.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Sensivity analysis of the alternative ranking through different scenarios.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- Categorise and describe proper risk issues concerning various socio-economic, technical, and geo-political based sectors correlated to construction projects.
- Develop a logical structure incorporating a D-CFPR based ANP model for risk prioritisation during construction.
- Identify and prioritise risk response factors in the construction industry based on the D-MABAC methodology.
2. Risks in Construction Projects
2.1. An Overview
2.2. Previous Studies on Risk Assessment in Construction Projects
3. Preliminaries
3.1. Dempster–Shafer (D–S) Evidence Theory
3.2. D Numbers Theory
- Firstly, D numbers with nonexclusive hypothesis in each element of the frame of discernment is more applicable for linguistic assessment.
- Secondly, in an evidence theory, a normal BPA must be complete, implying that the sum of all focal length elements in BPA is 1. D numbers allows the experts to input incomplete and uncertain information to the framework resulting in an incomplete BPA, thus releasing the completeness constraint. Thus, if the information is said to be complete, and for the information is said to be incomplete.
4. Methodology
4.1. D-CFPR: D Numbers Extended CFPR
- For the elements satisfying
- ○
- If then
- ○
- If then .
- When
- ○
- If then
- ○
- If then .
- when
- ○
- If ,
- ○
- If then .
- First, sum up each row of the matrix and determine the row number with maximum value.
- Then, assuming the obtained row number is k, delete the k-th row and k-th column in the matrix.
- Replicate the two procedures above until the matrix is empty.
4.2. Evaluating the Risk Criteria Weight Using D-ANP
- In the first step, the D-CFPR matrix , is constructed for n criteria, by considering the system as an input using Equations (9)–(12).
- The D-CFPR matrix formed , is converted to a crisp matrix , using the integration representation of D number, shown in Equation (13).
- The probability matrix is then constructed based on the derived crisp matrix using Equation (14), and it satisfies a set of rules in Step 3 of Section 4.1.
- In the next step, using Equation (15), triangularisation is applied to the probability matrix using local information that contains the preference relations of pairwise criteria.
- Lastly, applying Equations (16)–(19), the crisp based triangular matrix , is obtained, and relative priority weights of each criteria , based on clusters (dimensions) are calculated, thereby checking its inconsistency as per Equation (21).
4.3. D-MABAC for Ranking Alternatives
5. Numerical Example: Risk Assessment in a Construction Project
5.1. Identification of Construction Projects Risk Indicators and Their Mitigation Strategies
5.2. Calculating Risk Based Criteria Weight Using D-ANP Framework
5.3. Determination of Final Alternative Ranking by D-MABAC
6. Results and Discussion
6.1. Comparison of Alternative Ranking Using Different MCDM Methods
6.2. Sensitivity Analysis
- Analysis of the alternative ranking through eight scenarios (Table 18) showed that alternative A1 retained its rank in five scenarios (best-ranked alternative), while, in the remaining two scenarios , it was ranked second, and third in scenario .
- The worst-ranked alternative A5 retained its rank in six scenarios , while in two scenarios , it was ranked second worst. Therefore, changing the criteria weights through different scenarios resulted in changes to the ranks of the remaining alternatives.
- In addition, from Table 17 and Table 18, it is clear that prioritising criteria C9 has less of an effect on ranking position of alternatives. However, prioritising criteria set {C4, C6, and C7} in scenario S7, {C2, C6, and C8} in scenario S1, along with {C4, C6, and C8} in scenario S6, all altered the positions of risk response alternatives .
- The prioritising of criteria weight in scenarios has no effect on ranking of best or worst risk response alternative A1 and A5, respectively, but it does have an effect on the ranking of the second best risk response alternative A2.
7. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Characteristics | Frequency | Percentage (%) | |
---|---|---|---|
Age group | 21–31 | 2 | 20 |
31–39 | 4 | 40 | |
39–45 | 3 | 30 | |
45–58 | 1 | 10 | |
Gender | Female | 4 | 40 |
Male | 6 | 60 | |
Level of Education | Bachelor’s degree | 4 | 40 |
Master’s degree | 5 | 50 | |
Higher | 1 | 10 | |
Role of respondents | Chief personal officer | 1 | 10 |
Manager or general manager | 2 | 20 | |
Staff or assistant manager | 1 | 10 | |
Project risks analyst | 2 | 20 | |
Purchasing manager | 1 | 10 | |
Construction site engineer | 3 | 30 | |
Years of experience in construction sector | Above 15 years | 2 | 20 |
10 years~15 years | 4 | 40 | |
5 years~10 years | 3 | 30 | |
Less than 5 years | 1 | 10 | |
Total available number | 10 |
Risk Indicators in Project Based Construction Management | References |
---|---|
Environmental risk; political, social and economic risk; contractual agreement risk; financial risk; construction risk; project design risk; market risk. | [1] |
Safety risk, quality risk, environmental risk, political risk, project site risk, project complexity risk. | [53] |
Quality risks, personnel risks, cost risks, deadline risks, strategic decision risks, external risks. | [17] |
Operational risk, economic risk, political risk, financial risk, legal risk, currency and inflation risk, corruption risk, tendering procedures. | [3] |
Political risks, economic risk, social risk, weather risk, cost, quality risk, technical risk, construction risk, resources risk, project member risk, information risk, construction site risks. | [23] |
Resources risk, inexperience of project members, lack of motivational approach, design errors risk, efficiency risk, technical risk, quality risk. | [21] |
Inflation risk, Payment security risk, Programme overrun risk, subcontractor pricing risk. | [56] |
Political risk, economic risk, natural risk, legal risk, contractor risk, financial risk, management risk, equipment risk, designer risk. | [25] |
Management risk, project risk, design risk, financial risk, operational risk, external risk. | [14] |
Information risk, cost risks, lack of coordination, project schedule risk, lack of professional planning, legal dispute risk. | [15] |
Designing risk, time risk, budget risk, labour risk, political risk. | [16] |
Design risk, payment delay risk, funding risk, quality risk, labour dispute risks, natural disaster risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, political instability, site condition risks, insurance inadequacy risk. | [9] |
Technical risks, organisational risks, socio-political risks, environmental risks, financial risks. | [6] |
Inflation (economic) risk, environmental and geological risk, design risk, construction delay risk, inadequate managerial skills risk, resource risk. | [29] |
Risk Dimension | Risk Criteria * | Brief Descriptions of Causes of the Mentioned Criteria Risks |
---|---|---|
External risks (D1) | Political instability (C1) | Frequent changes in government due to disputes among political parties, change in law due to local government’s unpredictable new regulations, needless influence by local government on court proceedings regarding project disputes. |
Economic risk (C2) | Fluctuation in currency exchange rate, unpredictable inflation due to immature banking systems, payment delays due to poor funding for project, inadequate forecasting about market demand. | |
Social risk (C3) | Racial tension and differences in work culture and language between foreign and local partners. | |
Project risk (D2) | Technological risk (C4) | Risk of insufficient technology, improper design, unexpected design changes; inadequate site investigation; change in construction procedures and insufficient resource availability. |
Work quality risk (C5) | Corruption, including bribery, at sites; obsolete technology and practices by the local partner; low local workforce labor productivity due to poor skills or inadequate supervision; improper quality control; local partner tolerance of defects and inferior quality. | |
Time and cost risk (C6) | Delays due to disputes with contractors, natural disasters, and lack of availability of utilities; risk of labor disputes and strikes; insufficient cash flow, improper measurements, ill planned schedules, and delays in payment; lack of proper benchmarking and monitoring of construction activities. | |
Internal risks (D3) | Resource risk (C7) | Difficulty in hiring suitable skilled employees; risk of defective material from suppliers; risk of labor, materials, and equipment availability; poor competence and productivity of labor *. |
Documents and information risk (C8) | Intellectual property protection risk from former local employees, partners, and third parties; corporate fraud including unexpected increases in turnover, unexpected resignations of financial advisers, intentional or unintentional negligence by auditors, bankers, or creditors. | |
Stakeholder’s risk (C9) | Local partner’s creditworthiness: Information on local partner’s accounts lucidity, financial soundness, foreign exchange liquidity, staff reliability. Termination of joint ventures (JV): unfair dividends, e.g., assets, shares, and benefits, to foreign firms by local partner upon termination of JV contract. |
Alternative (s) | Preventive Management Techniques | References |
---|---|---|
A1 | Proper scheduling for getting updated project information. | [9] |
A2 | Adjust plans for scope of work and estimates to counter risk implications. | [2] |
A3 | Get information about local partner’s credibility from present and past business partners. | [4] |
A4 | Transfer or share risks to/with other parties. | [6] |
A5 | Merger and diversification of projects. | [23] |
External Risk (D1) | Project Risk (D2) | Internal Risk (D3) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | C7 | C8 | C9 | ||
External risk (D1) | C1 | 0.000 | 0.576 | 0.589 | 0.315 | 0.386 | 0.373 | 0.332 | 0.353 | 0.395 |
C2 | 0.525 | 0.000 | 0.411 | 0.357 | 0.351 | 0.347 | 0.336 | 0.321 | 0.327 | |
C3 | 0.475 | 0.424 | 0.000 | 0.327 | 0.264 | 0.280 | 0.332 | 0.326 | 0.278 | |
Project risk (D2) | C4 | 0.288 | 0.355 | 0.354 | 0.000 | 0.461 | 0.510 | 0.348 | 0.346 | 0.340 |
C5 | 0.416 | 0.320 | 0.338 | 0.481 | 0.000 | 0.490 | 0.334 | 0.361 | 0.363 | |
C6 | 0.296 | 0.326 | 0.308 | 0.519 | 0.539 | 0.000 | 0.318 | 0.293 | 0.298 | |
Internal risk (D3) | C7 | 0.332 | 0.324 | 0.357 | 0.364 | 0.313 | 0.370 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
C8 | 0.351 | 0.369 | 0.351 | 0.343 | 0.371 | 0.351 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | |
C9 | 0.316 | 0.308 | 0.292 | 0.293 | 0.315 | 0.279 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Dimensions | |||
---|---|---|---|
External Risk | Project Risk | Internal Risk | |
External risk | 1 | 0.518 | 0.503 |
Project risk | 0.537 | 1 | 0.496 |
Internal risk | 0.462 | 0.482 | 1 |
External Risk | Project Risk | Internal Risk | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | C7 | C8 | C9 | ||
External risk | C1 | 0.000 | 0.576 | 0.589 | 0.163 | 0.200 | 0.193 | 0.167 | 0.178 | 0.199 |
C2 | 0.525 | 0.000 | 0.411 | 0.185 | 0.182 | 0.180 | 0.169 | 0.162 | 0.165 | |
C3 | 0.475 | 0.424 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.137 | 0.145 | 0.167 | 0.164 | 0.140 | |
Project risk | C4 | 0.155 | 0.191 | 0.191 | 0.000 | 0.461 | 0.510 | 0.173 | 0.172 | 0.169 |
C5 | 0.223 | 0.172 | 0.182 | 0.481 | 0.000 | 0.490 | 0.166 | 0.179 | 0.180 | |
C6 | 0.159 | 0.175 | 0.165 | 0.519 | 0.539 | 0.000 | 0.158 | 0.146 | 0.148 | |
Internal risk | C7 | 0.154 | 0.150 | 0.165 | 0.176 | 0.151 | 0.178 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
C8 | 0.162 | 0.171 | 0.162 | 0.165 | 0.179 | 0.169 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | |
C9 | 0.146 | 0.142 | 0.135 | 0.141 | 0.152 | 0.134 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 |
External Risk | Project Risk | Internal Risk | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | C7 | C8 | C9 | ||
External risk | C1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.294 | 0.082 | 0.100 | 0.097 | 0.056 | 0.059 | 0.066 |
C2 | 0.263 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.093 | 0.091 | 0.090 | 0.056 | 0.054 | 0.055 | |
C3 | 0.238 | 0.212 | 0.000 | 0.085 | 0.068 | 0.073 | 0.056 | 0.055 | 0.047 | |
Project risk | C4 | 0.078 | 0.095 | 0.095 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.255 | 0.058 | 0.057 | 0.056 |
C5 | 0.112 | 0.086 | 0.091 | 0.241 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.055 | 0.060 | 0.060 | |
C6 | 0.079 | 0.088 | 0.083 | 0.260 | 0.270 | 0.000 | 0.053 | 0.049 | 0.049 | |
Internal risk | C7 | 0.077 | 0.075 | 0.083 | 0.088 | 0.075 | 0.089 | 0.000 | 0.333 | 0.333 |
C8 | 0.081 | 0.085 | 0.081 | 0.083 | 0.090 | 0.085 | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.333 | |
C9 | 0.073 | 0.071 | 0.068 | 0.071 | 0.076 | 0.067 | 0.333 | 0.333 | 0.000 |
External Risk | Project Risk | Disruption Risk | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | C7 | C8 | C9 | ||
External risk | C1 | 0.1062 | 0.1062 | 0.1062 | 0.1062 | 0.1062 | 0.1062 | 0.1062 | 0.1062 | 0.1062 |
C2 | 0.0958 | 0.0958 | 0.0958 | 0.0958 | 0.0958 | 0.0958 | 0.0958 | 0.0958 | 0.0958 | |
C3 | 0.0894 | 0.0894 | 0.0894 | 0.0894 | 0.0894 | 0.0894 | 0.0894 | 0.0894 | 0.0894 | |
Project risk | C4 | 0.0972 | 0.0972 | 0.0972 | 0.0972 | 0.0972 | 0.0972 | 0.0972 | 0.0972 | 0.0972 |
C5 | 0.0996 | 0.0996 | 0.0996 | 0.0996 | 0.0996 | 0.0996 | 0.0996 | 0.0996 | 0.0996 | |
C6 | 0.0971 | 0.0971 | 0.0971 | 0.0971 | 0.0971 | 0.0971 | 0.0971 | 0.0971 | 0.0971 | |
Internal risk | C7 | 0.1392 | 0.1392 | 0.1392 | 0.1392 | 0.1392 | 0.1392 | 0.1392 | 0.1392 | 0.1392 |
C8 | 0.1406 | 0.1406 | 0.1406 | 0.1406 | 0.1406 | 0.1406 | 0.1406 | 0.1406 | 0.1406 | |
C9 | 0.1349 | 0.1349 | 0.1349 | 0.1349 | 0.1349 | 0.1349 | 0.1349 | 0.1349 | 0.1349 |
Dimensions | Risk Criteria | Ranking |
---|---|---|
External risk (D1) | Political instability (C1) | 4 |
Economic risk (C2) | 8 | |
Social risk (C3) | 9 | |
Project risk (D2) | Technological risk (C4) | 6 |
Work quality risk (C5) | 5 | |
Time and cost risk (C6) | 7 | |
Internal risk (D3) | Resource risk (C7) | 2 |
Document and information risk (C8) | 1 | |
Stakeholder’s risk (C9) | 3 |
C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | C7 | C8 | C9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A1 | (0.62, 0.5) | (0.72, 0.4), (0.48, 0.6) | (0.53, 0.4) | (0.58, 0.5) | (0.72, 0.6) | (0.48, 0.6), (0.64, 0.4) | (0.66, 0.6) | (0.38, 0.9) | (0.84, 0.2) |
A2 | (0.68, 0.4) | (0.44, 0.8) | (0.64, 0.6), (0.32, 0.3) | (0.44,.9) | (0.82, 0.9) | (0.88, 0.6) | (0.56, 0.8) | (0.92, 0.8) | (0.69, 0.4) |
A3 | (0.54, 0.8), (0.68, 0.2) | (0.68, 0.3) | (0.47, 0.9) | (0.78, 0.8) | (0.38, 0.7), (0.59, 0.3) | (0.68, 0.5) | (0.29, 0.6), (0.39, 0.4) | (0.28, 0.6) | (0.34, 0.6) |
A4 | (0.72, 0.9) | (0.49, 0.7) | (0.78, 0.4) | (0.86, 0.4) | (0.88, 0.4) | (0.47, 0.7) | (0.64, 0.2) | (0.62, 1) | (0.56, 0.7) |
A5 | (0.48, 1) | (0.56, 0.9) | (0.82, 0.7) | (0.36, 1) | (0.78, 0.7) | (0.59, 0.9) | (0.78, 0.7) | (0.68, 0.3), (0.49, 0.6) | (0.44, 0.8) |
C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | C7 | C8 | C9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A1 | 0.8989 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.7927 | 0 | 0.3589 | 0.5846 | 1 |
A2 | 1 | 0.6022 | 0.2597 | 0.6826 | 0 | 0.0744 | 0.2344 | 0 | 0.5179 |
A3 | 0.2128 | 1 | 0.4171 | 0 | 0.7642 | 0.9488 | 0.5167 | 0.8427 | 0.8393 |
A4 | 0 | 0.6263 | 0.7238 | 0.8383 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
A5 | 0.4468 | 0.1935 | 0 | 0.7904 | 0.4974 | 0.0605 | 0 | 0.3531 | 0.1786 |
C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | C7 | C8 | C9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A1 | 0.2017 | 0.1916 | 0.1788 | 0.1944 | 0.1786 | 0.0971 | 0.1892 | 0.2381 | 0.2698 |
A2 | 0.2124 | 0.1304 | 0.1126 | 0.1636 | 0.0996 | 0.1043 | 0.1718 | 0.1406 | 0.2048 |
A3 | 0.1288 | 0.1641 | 0.1267 | 0.0972 | 0.1757 | 0.1892 | 0.2111 | 0.2812 | 0.2481 |
A4 | 0.1062 | 0.1324 | 0.1541 | 0.1787 | 0.1992 | 0.1942 | 0.2784 | 0.1693 | 0.1349 |
A5 | 0.1537 | 0.0958 | 0.0894 | 0.1740 | 0.1491 | 0.1030 | 0.1392 | 0.1995 | 0.1590 |
Alternative Risk Responses | Q | Rank | |
---|---|---|---|
Risk response (A1) | Proper scheduling for getting updated project information. | 0.2830 | 1 |
Risk response (A2) | Adjust plans for scope of work and estimates to counter risk implications. | −0.1161 | 4 |
Risk response (A3) | Get information about local partner’s credibility from its present and past business partners. | 0.1660 | 2 |
Risk response (A4) | Transfer or share risks to/with other parties. | 0.0913 | 3 |
Risk response (A5) | Merger and diversification of projects. | −0.1935 | 5 |
Alternative Risk Responses | D-MABAC | D-TOPSIS | D-COPRAS | D-ARAS |
---|---|---|---|---|
A1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
A2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
A3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
A4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
A5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Spearman’s Coefficient | D-MABAC | D-TOPSIS | D-COPRAS | D-ARAS |
---|---|---|---|---|
- | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Scenarios * | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Criteria | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | S7 | S8 |
C1 | 0.0113 | 0.1482 | 0.0226 | 0.2674 | 0.1944 | 0.0795 | 0.0081 | 0.1602 |
C2 | 0.1578 | 0.1121 | 0.1204 | 0.1178 | 0.0914 | 0.0632 | 0.0962 | 0.0537 |
C3 | 0.0576 | 0.1789 | 0.2946 | 0.0001 | 0.1853 | 0.0577 | 0.0308 | 0.1054 |
C4 | 0.0904 | 0.1118 | 0.2655 | 0.1556 | 0.2219 | 0.0519 | 0.2032 | 0.0958 |
C5 | 0.1172 | 0.0033 | 0.0478 | 0.0598 | 0.0603 | 0.0703 | 0.0875 | 0.1805 |
C6 | 0.2016 | 0.0233 | 0.0496 | 0.0631 | 0.0322 | 0.3311 | 0.1958 | 0.0218 |
C7 | 0.0894 | 0.1663 | 0.0352 | 0.0937 | 0.056 | 0.0055 | 0.1485 | 0.0223 |
C8 | 0.2103 | 0.0933 | 0.003 | 0.0276 | 0.0871 | 0.332 | 0.1191 | 0.0539 |
C9 | 0.0645 | 0.1628 | 0.1613 | 0.215 | 0.0714 | 0.0089 | 0.1107 | 0.3063 |
Alternative Risk Responses | Scenarios | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | S7 | S8 | |
A1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
A2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
A3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
A4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
A5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
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Chatterjee, K.; Zavadskas, E.K.; Tamošaitienė, J.; Adhikary, K.; Kar, S. A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects. Symmetry 2018, 10, 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym10020046
Chatterjee K, Zavadskas EK, Tamošaitienė J, Adhikary K, Kar S. A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects. Symmetry. 2018; 10(2):46. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym10020046
Chicago/Turabian StyleChatterjee, Kajal, Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas, Jolanta Tamošaitienė, Krishnendu Adhikary, and Samarjit Kar. 2018. "A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects" Symmetry 10, no. 2: 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym10020046
APA StyleChatterjee, K., Zavadskas, E. K., Tamošaitienė, J., Adhikary, K., & Kar, S. (2018). A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects. Symmetry, 10(2), 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym10020046