Research Paper:
Population Aging, Housing Price, and Household Consumption
Yong Wang*,**, and Tingting Sun**
*Key Laboratory of Data Science in Finance and Economics, Jiangxi Economic Forecasting and Decision Research Center, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics
No.169 Shuanggang East Street, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013, China
**School of Statistics and Data Science, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics
No.169 Shuanggang East Street, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013, China
Corresponding author
Population aging and housing price can affect household consumption, and population aging can indirectly affect household consumption through housing price. This study uses panel data from 31 provinces and cities in China between 2001 and 2018 to construct a panel vector autoregression model for analyzing the impact of population aging and housing price on household consumption level. We determine that population aging and housing price positively impact household consumption level, and population aging also has a positive effect on housing price. The mediating effect model using time series data from 2001 to 2018, with housing price as the mediating variable reveals that population aging directly increases household consumption level, and indirectly increases it through housing price. Finally, this study proposes suggestions such as optimizing the population structure, improving the housing system, and advancing the development of the older adult industry.
- [1] Y. Wang, “The Impact of Population Aging on Urban Household’s Consumption Behavior in China,” Chinese J. of Population Science, No.1, pp. 64-73, 2011 (in Chinese).
- [2] J. Wang, “Research on the Influence of Population Aging on the Consumption Disparity of Chinese Rural and Urban Residents – Based on the Empirical Analysis of Provincial Dynamic Panel Data,” Modern Economic Science, No.5, pp. 109-115, 2015 (in Chinese).
- [3] J. Dai and C. Shu, “Empirical Test of Influence of Population Aging on Consumer Behavior,” Statistics and Decision, No.21, pp. 82-86, 2017 (in Chinese).
- [4] C. Chen, “The Impact of Population Aging on Consumption: Based on the LCH,” J. of Central University of Finance & Economics, No.6, pp. 50-57, 2013 (in Chinese).
- [5] R. Bottazzi, T. Jappelli, and M. Padula, “Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms, and Their Impact on Private Wealth Accumulation,” J. of Public Economics, Vol.90, Issue 12, pp. 2187-2212, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2006.03.005
- [6] X. Liu and Y. Ge, “Research on the Influence of Demographic Change on Real Estate Industry Under the Background of the Second Child Policy: Analysis Based on OLG Model,” Industrial Economics Research, No.5, pp. 115-126, 2019 (in Chinese).
- [7] M. Hu, H. Nong, and J. Cheng, “A New Test on the Relationship Between Population Aging and Housing Price in China: From the Perspective of Housing Reform Dividend Affect,” J. of East China Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), Vol.49, Issue 3, pp. 132-144, 2017 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2017.03.016
- [8] X. Wang and Y. Wu, “Population Aging, Birth Rate and Housing Price: Based on the Regional Characteristics of the Real Estate Market,” J. of East China Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), Vol.49, Issue 3, pp. 145-154, 2017 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2017.03.017
- [9] J. Hu and J. Gu, “On the Regional Differences of the Impact of Population Aging on Housing Price: An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of 31 Provinces in China,” J. of East China Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), Vol.49, Issue 3, pp. 155-160, 2017 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5579.2017.03.018
- [10] E. Takáts, “Aging and House Prices,” J. of Housing Economics, Vol.21, Issue 2, pp. 131-141, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2012.04.001
- [11] Q. Fang and F. Hu, “Urban Housing Price and Households’ Consumption Expenditure: An Empirical Study Based on the Data of CFPS,” J. of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, No.4, pp. 33-42, 2018 (in Chinese).
- [12] J. Zhong, L. Wang, and Z. Wang, “Study on Impact of House Prices on the Level of the Residents’ Consumption: Based on the Analysis of Liaoning Province,” Canadian Social Science, Vol.8, No.1, pp. 25-28, 2012. http://doi.org/10.3968/j.css.1923669720120801.1130
- [13] D. Holtz-Eakin, W. Newey, and H. Rosen, “Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data,” Econometrica, Vol.56, No.6, pp. 1371-1395, 1988. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913103
- [14] M. Arellano and S. Bond, “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol.58, No.2, pp. 277-297, 1991. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
- [15] I. Love and L. Zicchino, “Financial Development and Dynamic Investment Behavior: Evidence from Panel VAR,” The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol.46, Issue 2, pp. 190-210, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2005.11.007
- [16] Y. Lian, “Research on Investment Efficiency of Chinese Listed Companies,” Economy & Management Publishing House, 2009 (in Chinese).
This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationa License.