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Dynamic analysis of an Ebola epidemic model incorporating limited medical resources and immunity loss

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Abstract

In this paper, we establish an Ebola epidemic model incorporating limited medical resources and immunity loss, and also consider the tracking and quarantining of susceptible individuals. Meanwhile the stability of the disease-free equilibrium is proved. Furthermore, we deduce the existence of multiple endemic equilibria and the occurrence of bifurcation. And then, using the partial ranking correlation coefficient (PRCC), it is found that the control reproduction number is most correlated with the parameter \(\rho \) (incineration or burial rate of dead bodies). Additionally, based on the data of the Ebola epidemic in Uganda in 2022, the fitted curve of accumulated infectious cases stabilizes at 143, which is eventually consistent with the actual data. Finally, numerical simulation results indicate that the peak value of infectious individuals decreases by 52.3% when the maximum treatment recovery rate changes from 20% to 40%. And while the hospital bed-population ratio increases by 10%, the peak value of the infectious decreases by 29.1%. Simultaneously, when the rate of immune loss decreasing from 60% to 20%, the peak value of the infectious decreases by 13.2%. While enhancing the tracking and quarantining of susceptible individuals have significant impact on the prevention and control of Ebola.

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Acknowledgements

This research is supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 12071445, 11901027), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2021M703426), the Pyramid Talent Training Project of BUCEA (No. JDYC20200327), the BUCEA Post Graduate Education Teaching Quality Improvement Project (J2023021) and the BUCEA Post Graduate Innovation Project (No. PG2023145). We thank all the individuals who provided support and guidance to this study.

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  1. School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, 102616, People’s Republic of China

    Xiaojing Wang, Jiahui Li, Songbai Guo & Maoxing Liu

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  1. Xiaojing Wang
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Correspondence to Maoxing Liu.

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Wang, X., Li, J., Guo, S. et al. Dynamic analysis of an Ebola epidemic model incorporating limited medical resources and immunity loss. J. Appl. Math. Comput. 69, 4229–4242 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12190-023-01923-2

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