Abstract
Two successive landslides within a month started in October 11, 2018, and dammed twice the Jinsha River at the border between Sichuan Province and Tibet in China. Both events had potential to cause catastrophic flooding that would have disrupted lives of millions and induced significant economic losses. Fortunately, prompt action by local authorities supported by the deployment of a real-time landslide early warning system allowed for quick and safe construction of a spillway to drain the dammed lake. It averted the worst scenario without loss of life and property at least one order of magnitude less to what would have been observed without quick intervention. Particularly, the early warning system was able to predict the second large-scale slope failure 24 h in advance, along with minor rock falls during the spillway construction, avoiding false alerts. This paper presents the main characteristics of both slope collapses and damming processes, and introduces the successful landslide early warning system. Furthermore, we found that the slope endured cumulative creeping displacements of > 40 m in the past decade before the first event. Twenty-five meter displacement occurred in the year immediately before. The deformation was measured by the visual interpretation of multitemporal satellite images, which agrees with the interferometry synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurement. If these had been done before the emergency, economic losses could have been reduced further. Therefore, our findings strengthen the case for the deployment of systematic monitoring of potential landslide sites by integrating earth observation methods (i.e., multitemporal satellite or UAV images) and in situ monitoring system as a way to reduce risk. It is expected that this success story can be replicated worldwide, contributing to make our society more resilient to landslide events.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alfaro P, Delgado J, Garcia Tortosa F, Lenti L, Lopez J, Lopez-Casado C, Martino C (2012) Widespread landslides induced by the Mw 5.1 earthquake of 11 May in Lorca, SE Spain. Eng Geol 137-138:40–52
Ambraseys N, Douglas J (2004) Magnitude calibration of north Indian earthquakes. Geophys J Int 159:165–206
Cascini L, Fornaro G, Peduto D (2009) Analysis at medium scale of low-resolution DInSAR data in slow-moving landslide-affected areas. ISPRS J Photogramm Remote Sens 64:598–611. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2009.05.003
Chai H, Liu H, Zhang Z (2000) The temporal-spatial distribution of damming landslides in China. J Mt Sci 18(Suppl):51–54
Cui P, Zhu Y, Han Y et al (2009) The 12 May Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide lakes: distribution and preliminary risk evaluation. Landslides 6:209–223. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-009-0160-9
Dal Sasso SF, Sole A, Pascale S et al (2014) Assessment methodology for the prediction of landslide dam hazard. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14:557–567. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-557-2014
Dong J, Tung Y, Chen C, Liao J, Pan Y (2011) Logistic regression model for predicting the failure probability of landslide dam. Eng Geol 117(1–2):52:61
Ermini I, Casagli N (2003) Prediction of behaviour of landslide dams using a geomorphological dimensionless index. Earth Surf Process Landf 28(1):31–47
Fan X, Tang CX, van Westen CJ, Alkema D (2012a) Simulating dam-breach flood scenarios of the Tangjiashan landslide dam induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:3031–3044. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3031-2012
Fan X, van Westen CJ, Korup O et al (2012b) Transient water and sediment storage of the decaying landslide dams induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China. Geomorphology 171–172:58–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2012.05.003
Fan X, van Westen CJ, Xu Q et al (2012c) Analysis of landslide dams induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. J Asian Earth Sci 57:25–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2012.06.002
Fan X, Xu Q, Scaringi G et al (2017) Failure mechanism and kinematics of the deadly June 24th 2017 Xinmo landslide, Maoxian, Sichuan, China. Landslides 14:2129–2146. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0907-7
Fan X, Zhan W, Dong X et al (2018a) Analyzing successive landslide dam formation by different triggering mechanisms: the case of the Tangjiawan landslide, Sichuan, China. Eng Geol 243:128–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.06.016
Fan X, Xu Q, Scaringi G (2018b) Brief communication: post-seismic landslides, the tough lesson of a catastrophe. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 18:397–403. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-397-2018
Farina P, Colombo D, Fumagalli A et al (2006) Permanent Scatterers for landslide investigations: outcomes from the ESA-SLAM project. Eng Geol 88:200–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2006.09.007
Guzzetti F, Manunta M, Ardizzone F et al (2009) Analysis of ground deformation detected using the SBAS-DInSAR technique in Umbria, Central Italy. Pure Appl Geophys 166:1425–1459. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-009-0491-4
Huang R (2012) Mechanisms of large-scale landslides in China. Bull Eng Geol Environ 71:161–170. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-011-0403-6
Huang R, Huang J, Ju N et al (2013) WebGIS-based information management system for landslides triggered by Wenchuan earthquake. Nat Hazards 65:1507–1517. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0424-x
Huang J, Huang R, Ju N et al (2015) 3D WebGIS-based platform for debris flow early warning: a case study. Eng Geol 197:57–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.08.013
Intrieri E, Gigli G, Mugnai F et al (2012) Design and implementation of a landslide early warning system. Eng Geol 147–148:124–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.07.017
Korup O (2004) Geomorphometric characteristics of New Zealand landslide dams. Eng Geol 73:13–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2003.11.003
Lee P (2012) Bayesian statistics, an introduction, 4th edn. Wiley, Hoboken
Liu C, Li W, Wu H et al (2013) Susceptibility evaluation and mapping of China’s landslides based on multi-source data. Nat Hazards 69:1477–1495. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0759-y
Manconi A, Giordan D (2015) Landslide early warning based on failure forecast models: the example of the Mt. de La Saxe rockslide, northern Italy. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 15:1639–1644. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1639-2015
Monserrat O, Crosetto M, Luzi G (2014) A review of ground-based SAR interferometry for deformation measurement. ISPRS J Photogramm Remote Sens 93:40–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2014.04.001
Nappi R, Alessio G, Gaudiosi G, Nave R, Marotta E, Siniscalchi V, Civico R, PIzzimenti L, Peluso R, Belviso P, Porfido S (2018) The 21 August Md = 4.0 Casamicciola earthquake: first evidence of coseismic normal surface faulting at the Ischia Volcanic Island. Seismol Res Lett 89(4):1323–1334
Peteley D (2018) A dangerous valley—blocking landslide in Jomda County Tibet. American Geophysical Union, Landslides Blog. https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2018/11/12/jomda-county-landslide-2/. November 12th, 2018
Peterman V (2015) Landslide activity monitoring with the help of unmanned aerial vehicle. ISPRS - Int Arch Photogramm Remote Sens Spat Inf Sci XL-1/W4:215–218. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprsarchives-XL-1-W4-215-2015
Ren Z, Zhang Z, Yin J (2017) Erosion associated with seismically-induced landslides in the middle Longmen Shan region, eastern Tibetan plateau, China. Remote Sens 9:864. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9080864
Schlögel R, Doubre C, Malet J-P, Masson F (2015) Landslide deformation monitoring with ALOS/PALSAR imagery: a D-InSAR geomorphological interpretation method. Geomorphology 231:314–330. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.11.031
Sijing W, Guohe L, Qiang Z, Chaoli L (2010) Engineering geological study of the active tectonic region for hydropower development on the Jinsha River, upstream of the Yangtze River. Acta Geol Sin English Ed 74:353–361. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-6724.2000.tb00474.x
Storchak D, Di Giacomo D, Bondar I, Engdahl E, Harris J, Lee W, Villasenor A, Bormann P (2013) Public release of the ISC-GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue (1900-2009). Seismol Res Lett 84(5):810–815
Stumpf A, Malet J-P, Delacourt C (2017) Correlation of satellite image time-series for the detection and monitoring of slow-moving landslides. Remote Sens Environ 189:40–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2016.11.007
Tacconi Stefanelli C, Segoni S, Casagli N, Catani F (2016) Geomorphic indexing of landslide dams evolution. Eng Geol 208:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2016.04.024
Tian B, Li Z, Zhang M et al (2017) Mapping thermokarst lakes on the Qinghai–Tibet plateau using nonlocal active contours in Chinese GaoFen-2 multispectral imagery. IEEE J Select Top Appl Earth Observ Remote Sens 10:1687–1700. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2017.2666787
Türk T (2018) Determination of mass movements in slow-motion landslides by the Cosi-Corr method. Geomat Nat Haz Risk 9:325–336. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2018.1435564
Turner D, Lucieer A, de Jong S (2015) Time series analysis of landslide dynamics using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). Remote Sens 7:1736–1757. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70201736
US Geological Survey (2018) Earthquake Catalog. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/. Accessed 24 Dec 2018
Wang SJ, Li GH, Zhang Q, Lan CL (2000) Engineering geological study of the active tectonic region for hydropower development on the Jinsha River, upstream of the Yangtze River. Acta Geol Sin Ed 74:353–361
Wells DL, Coppersmith KJ (1994) New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84(4):974–1002
Wu LZ, Zhou Y, Sun P, Shi JS, Liu GG, Bai LY (2017) Laboratory characterization of rainfall-induced loess slope failure. Catena 150:1–8
Xu Q, Zeng Y, Qian J et al (2009a) Study on a improved tangential angle and the corresponding landslide pre-warning criteria. Geol Bull China 28(4):501–505
Xu Q, Fan X-M, Huang R-Q, Westen CV (2009b) Landslide dams triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, Sichuan Province, south west China. Bull Eng Geol Environ 68:373–386. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-009-0214-1
Xu Q, Yuan Y, Zeng Y, Hack R (2011) Some new pre-warning criteria for creep slope failure. SCIENCE CHINA Technol Sci 54:210–220. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-011-4640-5
Zhang D, Wang G, Yang T et al (2013) Satellite remote sensing-based detection of the deformation of a reservoir bank slope in Laxiwa Hydropower Station, China. Landslides 10:231–238. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-012-0378-9
Zinqun M (1995) Chinese historical catalogue from 2300 B.C to 1911 A.D. Seismological press, Beijing (In Chinese)
Acknowledgments
We want to thank the contribution of Jie Liu, Cheng Zhao, Zetao Feng, Fan Yang, Lanxin Dai, and Xiangyang Dou for supporting in data collection and field investigation.
Funding
This research is financially supported by the National Science Fund for Outstanding Young Scholars of China (Grant No. 41622206), the Funds for Creative Research Groups of China (Grant No. 41521002), the Fund for International Cooperation (NSFC-RCUK_NERC), Resilience to Earthquake-induced landslide risk in China (Grant No. 41661134010), and the fund for Team Project of Independent Research of SKLGP (Grant Nos. SKLGP2016Z001 and SKLGP2016Z002).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Highlights
• Twin large landslides dammed the same river twice, potentially leading to catastrophic flooding that could have impacted millions downstream.
• First account of site conditions, long-term observed slope displacement, chain of events, deployed early warning system and emergency response, showing how quick and integrated action by local authorities and scientists averted a major disaster.
• The historical deformation trends of the landslide are found using satellite images taken along decades and interferometry of SAR data.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Fan, X., Xu, Q., Alonso-Rodriguez, A. et al. Successive landsliding and damming of the Jinsha River in eastern Tibet, China: prime investigation, early warning, and emergency response. Landslides 16, 1003–1020 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01159-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01159-x