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Statistical modelling of Europe-wide landslide susceptibility using limited landslide inventory data

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Abstract

In many regions, the absence of a landslide inventory hampers the production of susceptibility or hazard maps. Therefore, a method combining a procedure for sampling of landslide-affected and landslide-free grid cells from a limited landslide inventory and logistic regression modelling was tested for susceptibility mapping of slide- and flow-type landslides on a European scale. Landslide inventories were available for Norway, Campania (Italy), and the Barcelonnette Basin (France), and from each inventory, a random subsample was extracted. In addition, a landslide dataset was produced from the analysis of Google Earth images in combination with the extraction of landslide locations reported in scientific publications. Attention was paid to have a representative distribution of landslides over Europe. In total, the landslide-affected sample contained 1,340 landslides. Then a procedure to select landslide-free grid cells was designed taking account of the incompleteness of the landslide inventory and the high proportion of flat areas in Europe. Using stepwise logistic regression, a model including slope gradient, standard deviation of slope gradient, lithology, soil, and land cover type was calibrated. The classified susceptibility map produced from the model was then validated by visual comparison with national landslide inventory or susceptibility maps available from literature. A quantitative validation was only possible for Norway, Spain, and two regions in Italy. The first results are promising and suggest that, with regard to preparedness for and response to landslide disasters, the method can be used for urgently required landslide susceptibility mapping in regions where currently only sparse landslide inventory data are available.

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Acknowledgements

This study has been carried out in the framework of the EU-FP7 project SafeLand: Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies (Grant Agreement 226479; http://www.safeland-fp7.eu/). The authors thank all the project partners that have contributed to the collection of the thematic data. Special thanks go to Kari Sletten (Norwegian Geological Survey) and prof. Luciano Picarelli and Tonino Santo (AMRA S.c.a.r.l., Naples, Italy) for providing landslide inventory data for Norway and the Campania region respectively. The reviewer and editor are thanked for helpful comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, 21027, Ispra, Italy

    M. Van Den Eeckhaut, J. Hervás & L. Montanarella

  2. Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), International Centre for Geohazards (ICG), NO-0806, Oslo, Norway

    C. Jaedicke & F. Nadim

  3. Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg, CNRS UMR 7516, Université de Strasbourg / EOST, 67084, Strasbourg Cedex, France

    J.-P. Malet

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  1. M. Van Den Eeckhaut
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Correspondence to M. Van Den Eeckhaut.

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Van Den Eeckhaut, M., Hervás, J., Jaedicke, C. et al. Statistical modelling of Europe-wide landslide susceptibility using limited landslide inventory data. Landslides 9, 357–369 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-011-0299-z

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