Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
Skip to main content

Advertisement

Springer Nature Link
Log in

A critical analysis of the effect of projected temperature and rainfall for differential sowing of maize cultivars under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios for Punjab

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

    We’re sorry, something doesn't seem to be working properly.

    Please try refreshing the page. If that doesn't work, please contact support so we can address the problem.

Abstract

A simulation study was conducted for two maize cultivars (PMH1 and PMH2) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in four agroclimatic zones of Punjab state of India where climate change depicts a consistent rise in temperature and variability in rainfall. The temperature and rainfall varied from location to location so agroclimatic zone II (Ballowal Saunkhri), zone III (Ludhiana, Amritsar, and Patiala), zone IV (Bathinda), and zone V (Abohar and Faridkot) were selected for the study. The bias-corrected ensemble model data from seventeen global circulation models (GCMs) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 was used to simulate maize yield for a period of 70 years (2025–2095) using calibrated and validated CERES-Maize model. The simulated yield trend in Punjab under current dates of sowing indicated a strong negative correlation between the yield and the weather parameters under the two scenarios. Agroclimatic zones II, III, and V (Faridkot) observed an increase in temperature by 1 °C over the 70 years’ time period which led to lowering of the maize yield from high yield category (> 5000 kg/ha) to low (< 3000 kg/ha). The cv PMH1 was able to compensate these effects and performed better in agroclimatic zones II, III, and V (Faridkot). In agroclimatic zones IV (Bathinda) and V (Abohar), an increase in temperature by 2 °C is observed, which led to decline of yield categories from medium yield years to low yield years. Though the rainfall in the region was higher for low yield years, but the rainfall amount was insufficient to mitigate the impact of temperature. Under the future stabilization scenarios, amongst the current sowing dates, mid-June was found suitable in agroclimatic zones II and III and in agroclimatic zone V (Faridkot) both early and mid-June sowing dates performed well. Considering the suitable sowing dates under current farming practices, it would be easy to determine the future sowing window for maize cultivars in Punjab.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this published article (and its supplementary information files).

Code availability

The software (DSSAT) applied is available on the DSSAT site (DSSAT.net—Official Home of the DSSAT Cropping Systems Model), and after registration of the first author, the latest version (4.7.5) of the model was downloaded and employed.

References

  • Allen MR, Dube OP, Solecki WA, Aragón-Durand F, Cramer W, Humphreys S, Kainuma M, Kala J, Mahowald N, Mulugetta Y, Perez R, Wairiu M, Zickfeld K (2018) Framing and context. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Portner H-O, Roberts D, Skea J, Shukla PR, Pirani A, Moufouma-Okia W, Péan C, Pidcock R, Connors S, Matthews JBR, Chen Y, Zhou X, Gomis MI, Lonnoy E, Maycock T, Tignor M, Waterfield T (eds) Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva, p 84

  • Awais M, Wajid A, Saleem MF (2018) Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 25:13719–13730

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bale JS, Masters GJ, Hodkinson ID, Awmack C, Bezemer TM, Brown VK, Butterfield J, Buse A, Coulson JC, Farrar J, Good JEG, Harrington R, Hartley S, Jones TH, Lindroth RL, Press MC, Symrnioudis I, Watt AD, Whittaker JB (2002) Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperatures on insect herbivores. Global Change Biol 8:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00451.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bannayan M, Paymard P, Ashraf B (2016) Vulnerability of maize production under future climate change: possible adaptation strategies. J Sci Food Agric 96(13):4465–4474

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Byjesh K, Naresh KS, Aggarwal PK (2010) Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 15:413–431

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chartzoulakis K, Psarras G (2005) Global change effects on crop photosynthesis and production in Mediterranean: the case of Crete, Greece. Agric Ecosyst Environ 106:147–157

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen G, Liu H, Zhang J, Liu P, Dong S (2012) Factors affecting summer maize yield under climate change in Shandong Province in the Huanghuaihai Region of China. Int J Biometeorol 56:621–629. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0460-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chisanga Charles B, Phiri E, Chinene Vernon RN, Chabala Lydia M (2020) Projecting maize yield under local-scale climate change scenarios using crop models: sensitivity to sowing dates, cultivar, and nitrogen fertilizer rates. Food Energy Secur 9:e231. https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne JL, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Gao X, Gutowski WJ, Johns T, Krinner G, Shongwe M, Tebaldi C, Weaver AJ, Wehner M (2013) Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Dar MUD, Aggarwal R, Kaur S (2019) Climate predictions for Ludhiana District of Indian Punjab under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Int J Environ Clim Chang 9(2):128–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han Z, Zhang B, Yang L, He C (2021) Assessment of the impact of future climate change on maize yield and water use efficiency in agro-pastoral ecotone of Northwestern China. Agro Crop Sci 207:317–331

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hatfield JL, Boote KJ, Kimball BA, Ziska LH, Izaurralde RC, Ort D, Thomson AM, Wolfe D (2011) Climate impacts on agriculture: implications for crop production. Agron J 103:351–370

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holden NM, Brereton AJ (2006) Adaptation of water and nitrogen management of spring barley and potato as a response to possible climate change in Ireland. Agric Water Manage 82:297–317

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Working group II contribution to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Technical Report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK/New York, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Kang Y, Khan S, Ma X (2009) Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security – a review. Prog Nat Sci 19:1665–1674. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pnsc.2009.08.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaur J (2020) Analysing uncertainties in prediction of climate change by general circulation models in Punjab PhD dissertation. Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, India

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaur N, Prabhjyot-Kaur, (2019) Maize yield projection under climate change scenarios in Punjab. J Agrometeoro 21(2):154–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaur N, Kaur S, Kaur P, Aggarwal R (2021) Impact of climate change on groundwater levels in Sirhind Canal Tract of Punjab India. Groundw Sustain Dev 15:100670. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2021.100670

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kijne JW, Barker R, Molden D (2003) Improving water productivity in agriculture: editors’ overview. In: Kijne JW, Barker R, Molden D (eds) Water productivity in agriculture: limits and opportunities for improvement. CABI Publishing, Wallingford UK, pp xi–xix

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Kogo BK, Kumar L, Koech R, Langat P (2019) Modelling impacts of climate change on maize (Zea mays L.) growth and productivity: a review of models, outputs and limitations. J Geosci Environ Prot 7:76–95. https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2019.78006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kothiyal S, Kaur P, Sandhu SS (2021) Determination of sowing window for kharif maize in Punjab, India using sensitized, calibrated and validated CERES-Maize model. Maydica 66(3):M29

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Ganaseelan C, Sanjay J, Swapna P, Dhara C, Sabin TP, Jadhav J, Sandeep N, Choudhary AD, Singh M, Mujumdar M, Parekh A, Tewari A, Mehajan R, Chopra R, Joshi A, Nagarajan A, Nivsarkar M, Rajeevan M, Collins M, Niyogi D (2020) Introduction to climate change over the Indian region. In: Krishnan R, Sanjay J, Gnanaseelan C, Mujumdar M, Kulkarni A, Chakraborty S (eds) Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2_1

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Li F, Liu Y, Yan W, Zhao Y, Jiang R (2020) Effects of future climate change on summer maize growth in Shijin Irrigation District. Theor Appl Climatol 139:33–44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02956-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Burke MB (2010) On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change. Agric Forest Metero 150:1443–1452

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616–620

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobells DB, Burke MB, Tabaidi C, Mastrandrea MD, Falcon WP, Naylor RL (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation need for food security in 2030. Science 319:607–610

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mall RK, Lal M, Bhatia VS, Rathore LS, Singh R (2004) Mitigating climate change impact on soybean productivity in India: a simulation study. Agric Meteorol 121:113–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Reto K, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper S, Watterson IG, Andrew W, Zong-Ci Z (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change: the physical science basis Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 749–844

    Google Scholar 

  • Naveenkumar KL, Sen D, Khanna VK (2018) Effect of maize production in a changing climate: its impacts, adaptation, and mitigation strategies through breeding. J Oncol Med 2(4):OAJOM.MS.ID.000142

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Neill T (2007) National geographic magazine. National Geography Society October 2007, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Petzoldt C, Seaman A (2005) Climate change effects on insects and pathogens. Clim Chang Agric: Promot Pract Profitable Responses III:6–16

    Google Scholar 

  • Popova Z, Kercheva M (2005) CERES model application for increasing preparedness to climate variability in agricultural planning-risk analyses. Phys Chem Earth 30:117–124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Porter JH, Parry ML, Carter TR (1991) The potential effects of climatic change on agricultural insect pests. Agric Forest Meteor 57:221–240

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prabhjyot-Kaur, Sandhu SS, Kaur J, Singh J, Dhir A (2020) Climate change projections for Punjab during 21st century. Punjab Agricultural University Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Ludhiana, Punjab, p 11

  • Pu L, Zhang S, Yang J, Chang L, Xiao X (2020) Assessing the impact of climate changes on the potential yields of maize and paddy rice in Northeast China by 2050. Theor Appl Climatol 140:167–182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03081-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahimi-Moghaddam S, Kambouzia J, Deihimfard R (2018) Adaptation strategies to lessen negative impact of climate change on grain maize under hot climatic conditions: a model-based assessment. Agric Forest Meteor 253–254:1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saddique Q, Khan MI, Rahman MH, Jiatun X, Waseem M, Gaiser T, Waqas MM, Ahmad I, Chong L, Huanje C (2020) Effects of elevated air temperature and CO2 on maize production and water use efficiency under future climate change scenarios in Shaanxi Province. China Atmosphere 11:843. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080843

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schoper JB, Lambert RJ, Vasilas BL (1987) Pollen viability, pollen shedding, and combining ability for tassel heat tolerance in maize. Crop Sci 27(1):27–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sidhu BS, Sharda R, Singh S (2020) A study of availability and utilization of water resources in Punjab. Curr World Environ 15(3):544–559. https://doi.org/10.12944/CWE.15.3.8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh S, Kattarkandi B, Deka S, Choudhary R (2010) Impact of climatic variability and climate change on maize productivity in north India. Curr Adv Agric Sci 2(1):5–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Sinha Nishant K, Mohanty M, Somasundaram J, Chaudhary RS, Patra H, Hati KM, Singh RP, Thakur JK, Kumar J, Kumar D, Rani A, Singh AB, Bal SK, Sammi RK, Prabhakar M (2021) Maize productivity analysis in response to climate change under different nitrogen management strategies. J Agrometeor 23(3):279–285

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Srivastava RK, Panda RK, Chakraborty A (2021) Assessment of climate change impact on maize yield and yield attributes under different climate change scenarios in eastern India. Ecol Indic 120:1068812

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stevens T, Madani K (2016) Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi. Sci Rep 6:36241. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep36241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stone P (2001) The effects of heat stress on cereal yield and quality. In: Basara AS (ed) Crop Responses and Adaptations to Temperature Stress. Food Products Press, Binghamton, New York, USA, pp 243–291

    Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Yokozawa M, Hayashi Y, Lin E (2003) Changes in soil moisture in China over the last half-century and their effects on agricultural production. Agric for Meteorol 118:251–261

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Yokozawa M, Hayashi Y, Lin E (2003) Future climate change, the agricultural water cycle, and agricultural productions in China. Agric Ecosyst Environ 95:203–215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomson LM (1966) Weather variability, climate change and grain production. Science 188(4188):535–541

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang JC, Zhang JH (2006) Grain filling of cereals under soil drying. New Phytol 169:223–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The simulated GCM data used in the study was obtained from the website http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/ at daily interval under RCP scenarios for stations in Punjab state.

Funding

The funding received from Science and Engineering Research Board, New Delhi through Core Grant project funding no. CRG/2019/002856: Optimizing cereal productivity under RCP projected climatic scenarios by mid and end of the twenty-first century in Punjab is duly acknowledged. Dr. Prabhjyot-Kaur has received this support.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, 141004, India

    Shivani Kothiyal,  Prabhjyot-Kaur & Jatinder Kaur

Authors
  1. Shivani Kothiyal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Prabhjyot-Kaur
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jatinder Kaur
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Prabhjyot Kaur and Jatinder Kaur, Shivani Kothiyal, and Shivani Kothiyal. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Shivani Kothiyal, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shivani Kothiyal.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval

Not applicable.

Consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Competing Interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Kothiyal, S., Prabhjyot-Kaur & Kaur, J. A critical analysis of the effect of projected temperature and rainfall for differential sowing of maize cultivars under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios for Punjab. Theor Appl Climatol 151, 329–354 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04291-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04291-2

Search

Navigation