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Spatial assessment of drought features over different climates and seasons across Iran

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Abstract

Drought is one of the most complex phenomena in the world; so, proper management is very important in monitoring and reducing its damage. For this purpose, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) indices were used to analyze the intensity and frequency of drought in the coastal wet, mountain, semi-mountain, semi-desert, desert, and coastal desert climates of Iran in four seasons, separately: autumn, winter, spring, and summer. Forty-three synoptic stations with a common statistical period of 50 years (1969–2019) were selected. The results showed that the trend of drought in winter and summer is increasing in all studied climates. The comparison of the results in the trend analysis of the drought showed the same trend, but the SPEI index compared to the other indicators showed a quicker response to changes in drier climates. The highest correlation (0.80–0.99) between SPI-RDI and SPEI-RDI indices in coastal desert, mountain, and semi-mountain climates and the lowest correlation (0.34) between SPI-SPEI and SPEI-RDI indices in semi-desert, desert, and coastal desert climates were obtained. SPI-RDI variations showed similar values in colder climates. The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multi-scalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability in the drought assessment. Thus, SPEI is recommended as a suitable index for studying and identifying the effect of climate change on drought conditions.

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Data availability

All data used in this paper for Iran were extracted from metrological stations’ data and can also be requested from the corresponding author.

Code availability

Not applicable.

Abbreviations

CP:

changing point

\(\widehat{\sigma }\) :

Standard deviation of the values of Yk

\(\overline{Y }\) :

Arithmetic mean of the values of Yk

\({\overline{a} }_{k}\) :

Values follow the normal log distribution Yk is equal to \({lna}_{k}\)

\(\alpha\), \(\beta\) and \(\gamma\) :

Yk The scale, shape and principal parameters for the values of Di

Aut.:

Autumn

Di :

Water balance

DOY:

Day format of the year

ea :

Actual vapor pressure

ED:

Extremely Drought

es :

Saturation vapor pressure (kPa)

ETref :

Reference evapotranspiration

EW:

Extremely wet

FAO:

Food and Agriculture Organization

G:

Soil heat flux density (MJ m−2 d−1)

MD:

Moderately Drought

MW:

Moderately Wet

PM-FAO56 :

Penman–Monteith equation based on FAO 56

RDI:

Reconnaissance Drought Index

RDIn:

Normalized RDI values

RDIst:

Standardized RDI

Rn :

Net radiation (MJ m−2 d−1)

SD:

Severe Drought

SPEI:

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

SPI:

Standard Precipitation Index

Spr.:

Spring

Sum.:

Summer

Ta :

Average air temperature (°C)

Tmax :

Maximum temperature

Tmean :

Average temperature

Tmin :

Minimum temperature

u2 :

Average wind speed at 2 m height (m s−1)

VW:

Severely wet

Win.:

Winter

γ:

Psychometric constant (kPa °C)

Δ:

The slope of the saturation vapor pressure function (kPa °C)

μ1 :

Mutation 1

μ2 :

Mutation 2

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Arak University, Arak, Iran

    Saeed Sharafi

  2. Department of Water Science and Engineering, Arak University, Arak, Iran

    Mehdi Mohammadi Ghaleni

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  1. Saeed Sharafi
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S.S. and M.M.G. prepared data and performed model runs, designed the study, interpreted the results, and wrote the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Saeed Sharafi.

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Sharafi, S., Ghaleni, M.M. Spatial assessment of drought features over different climates and seasons across Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 147, 941–957 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03853-0

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