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Hydrological impacts of climate change on a data-scarce Greek catchment

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Abstract

This paper demonstrates a climate change impact study on the hydrological process of a data-scarce Greek watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and, particularly, the ArcSWAT interface was used for the watershed simulation. The ERA-Interim reanalysis climate data regarding the period from 1981 to 2000 were used for the historical simulation of the watershed. The ArcSWAT simulated data were evaluated against the observed discharge data for the periods with the available data. The statistical evaluation confirmed the ArcSWAT model’s capability in simulating the hydrological process of the research area. The climate change consequences on the hydrological components of the research area until the end of the twenty-first century were estimated by driving the ArcSWAT model with the Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) forcing data under the extreme RCP 8.5 scenario, namely the simulations of the MPI and HadGEM2 general circulation models (GCMs), resulted from the spatio-temporal kriging approach. Based on the results, the increase in the minimum and the maximum temperature contributed to an increase in the actual evapotranspiration and the surface runoff. In contrast, the temperature increase caused a reduction in the infiltration. An increase (reduction) in the precipitation led to an increase (reduction) in the hydrological components. The climate change impact analysis of the Greek watershed showed that not only the precipitation changes but the temperature changes as well directly influence the water balance components of the research area and particularly the infiltration.

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Funding

This research has been financially supported by General Secretariat for Research and Technology (GSRT) and the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (HFRI) (Scholarship Code 174, 95543).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology, Laboratory of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124, Thessaloniki, Greece

    P. Venetsanou & K. Voudouris

  2. Department of Geology, Laboratory of Meteorology and Climatology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124, Thessaloniki, Greece

    C. Anagnostopoulou

  3. Department of Rural and Surveying Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124, Thessaloniki, Greece

    A. Loukas

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  1. P. Venetsanou
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  2. C. Anagnostopoulou
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Correspondence to C. Anagnostopoulou.

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Venetsanou, P., Anagnostopoulou, C., Loukas, A. et al. Hydrological impacts of climate change on a data-scarce Greek catchment. Theor Appl Climatol 140, 1017–1030 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03130-6

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