Abstract
Stock forecasting research, which aims to predict the future price movement of stocks, has been the focus of investors and scholars. This is important for practical applications related to human-centric computing and information sciences. Previous research has generally only considered market information other than the relationship between stocks, and it is challenging to learn a better representation of stock characteristics by considering the relationship between stocks. In the existing methods of combining market information with stock relationship modeling, most of them use predefined industry relationships to construct stock relationship diagrams, which inevitably ignores the potential interactions between stocks, especially the hidden relationships between stock groups. To this end, a new dual-graph attention model (MF-DAT) based on multisource information fusion is designed. Specifically, first, multiple features are fused by the LMF module, then the long-term and short-term state characteristics of stocks are learned through the first layer of the graph attention layer, and finally the node representation of the stock relationship network constructed by the mining stock cluster structure through community detection is updated. Our model takes into account both stock time-series information and potential relationships between stocks. Experiments on the S &P 500 and NASDAQ datasets show that our MF-DAT has better performance than the 8 SOTA methods that are now more popular.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
No datasets were generated or analyzed during the current study.
Change history
15 June 2024
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00530-024-01376-y
References
Ali, U., Hirshleifer, D.: Shared analyst coverage: Unifying momentum spillover effects. J. Financ. Econ. 136(3), 649–675 (2020)
Chaudhari, K., Thakkar, A.: Neural network systems with an integrated coefficient of variation-based feature selection for stock price and trend prediction. Expert Systems with Applications p 119527 (2023)
Chen, Q., Robert, C.Y.: Graph-based learning for stock movement prediction with textual and relational data. The Journal of Financial Data Science 4(4), 152–166 (2022)
Chen, W., Jiang, M., Zhang, W.G., et al.: A novel graph convolutional feature based convolutional neural network for stock trend prediction. Inf. Sci. 556, 67–94 (2021)
Chen, Y., Wei, Z., Huang, X.: Incorporating corporation relationship via graph convolutional neural networks for stock price prediction. In: Proceedings of the 27th ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, pp 1655–1658 (2018)
Cheng, D., Yang, F., Xiang, S., et al.: Financial time series forecasting with multi-modality graph neural network. Pattern Recogn. 121, 108218 (2022)
Cheng, R., Li, Q.: Modeling the momentum spillover effect for stock prediction via attribute-driven graph attention networks. In: Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on artificial intelligence, pp 55–62 (2021)
Chmielewski, L., Amin, R., Wannaphaschaiyong, A., et al.: Network analysis of technology stocks using market correlation. In: 2020 IEEE International Conference on Knowledge Graph (ICKG), IEEE, pp 267–274 (2020)
Feng, F., Chen, H., He, X., et al.: Enhancing stock movement prediction with adversarial training. In Proceedings of the 28th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2018)
Feng, F., He, X., Wang, X., et al.: Temporal relational ranking for stock prediction. ACM Transactions on Information Systems (TOIS) 37(2), 1–30 (2019)
Feng, S., Xu, C., Zuo, Y., et al.: Relation-aware dynamic attributed graph attention network for stocks recommendation. Pattern Recogn. 121, 108119 (2022)
Gao, J., Xu, C.: Learning video moment retrieval without a single annotated video. IEEE Trans. Circuits Syst. Video Technol. 32(3), 1646–1657 (2021)
Gao, J., Zhang, T., Xu, C.: Learning to model relationships for zero-shot video classification. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 43(10), 3476–3491 (2020)
Hoseinzade, E., Haratizadeh, S.: Cnnpred: Cnn-based stock market prediction using a diverse set of variables. Expert Syst. Appl. 129, 273–285 (2019)
Hsu, Y.L., Tsai, Y.C., Li, C.T.: Fingat: Financial graph attention networks for recommending top-\(k\) k profitable stocks. IEEE Trans. Knowl. Data Eng. 35(1), 469–481 (2021)
Huang, K., Li, X., Liu, F., et al.: Ml-gat: A multilevel graph attention model for stock prediction. IEEE Access 10, 86408–86422 (2022)
Huang, W.C., Chen, C.T., Lee, C., et al.: Attentive gated graph sequence neural network-based time-series information fusion for financial trading. Information Fusion 91, 261–276 (2023)
Kim, R., So, C.H., Jeong, M., et al.: Hats: A hierarchical graph attention network for stock movement prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:1908.07999 (2019)
Li, H., An, H., Fang, W., et al.: Global energy investment structure from the energy stock market perspective based on a heterogeneous complex network model. Appl. Energy 194, 648–657 (2017)
Li, S., Wu, J., Jiang, X., et al.: Chart gcn: Learning chart information with a graph convolutional network for stock movement prediction. Knowl.-Based Syst. 248, 108842 (2022)
Li, W., Bao, R., Harimoto, K., et al.: Modeling the stock relation with graph network for overnight stock movement prediction. In: Proceedings of the twenty-ninth international conference on international joint conferences on artificial intelligence, pp 4541–4547 (2021)
Li, X., Jia, H., Cheng, X., et al.: Stock market volatility prediction method based on improved genetic algorithm and graph neural network. Journal of Computer Applications 42(5), 1624 (2022)
Lin, H., Zhou, D., Liu, W., et al.: Learning multiple stock trading patterns with temporal routing adaptor and optimal transport. In: Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining, pp 1017–1026 (2021)
Liu, G., Mao, Y., Sun, Q., et al.: Multi-scale two-way deep neural network for stock trend prediction. In: IJCAI, pp 4555–4561 (2020)
Liu, Z., Shen, Y., Lakshminarasimhan, V. B., et al.: Efficient low-rank multimodal fusion with modality-specific factors. arXiv preprint arXiv:1806.00064 (2018)
Lu, Y., Shi, C., Hu, L., et al.: Relation structure-aware heterogeneous information network embedding. In: Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp 4456–4463 (2019)
Ma, Y., Mao, R., Lin, Q., et al.: Multi-source aggregated classification for stock price movement prediction. Information Fusion 91, 515–528 (2023)
MacMahon, M., Garlaschelli, D.: Community detection for correlation matrices. arXiv preprint arXiv:1311.1924 (2013)
Purqon, A., et al.: Community detection of dynamic complex networks in stock markets using hybrid methods (rmt-cn-lpam+ and rmt-bdm-sa). Frontiers in Physics 8, 492 (2021)
Sawhney, R., Agarwal, S., Wadhwa, A., et al.: Stock selection via spatiotemporal hypergraph attention network: A learning to rank approach. In: Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp 497–504 (2021)
Schlichtkrull, M., Kipf, T.N., Bloem, P., et al.: Modeling relational data with graph convolutional networks. In: The Semantic Web: 15th International Conference, ESWC 2018, Heraklion, Crete, Greece, June 3–7, 2018, Proceedings 15, Springer, pp 593–607 (2018)
Tang, J., Deng, C., Huang, G.B.: Extreme learning machine for multilayer perceptron. IEEE transactions on neural networks and learning systems 27(4), 809–821 (2015)
Wang, G., Cao, L., Zhao, H., et al.: Coupling macro-sector-micro financial indicators for learning stock representations with less uncertainty. In: Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp 4418–4426 (2021)
Wang, G.J., Xie, C., Stanley, H.E.: Correlation structure and evolution of world stock markets: Evidence from pearson and partial correlation-based networks. Comput. Econ. 51, 607–635 (2018)
Wang, H., Li, S., Wang, T., et al.: Hierarchical adaptive temporal-relational modeling for stock trend prediction. In: IJCAI, pp 3691–3698 (2021)
Wang, J., Hu, Y., Jiang, T.X., et al.: Essential tensor learning for multimodal information-driven stock movement prediction. Knowledge-Based Systems p 110262 (2023)
Wu, Z., Pan, S., Long, G., et al.: Connecting the dots: Multivariate time series forecasting with graph neural networks. In: Proceedings of the 26th ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery & data mining, pp 753–763 (2020)
Xu, C., Huang, H., Ying, X., et al.: Hgnn: Hierarchical graph neural network for predicting the classification of price-limit-hitting stocks. Inf. Sci. 607, 783–798 (2022)
Yang, J., Xiong, N., Vasilakos, A.V., et al.: A fingerprint recognition scheme based on assembling invariant moments for cloud computing communications. IEEE Syst. J. 5(4), 574–583 (2011)
Yang, X., Loua, M.A., Wu, M., et al.: Multi-granularity stock prediction with sequential three-way decisions. Inf. Sci. 621, 524–544 (2023)
Zhang, Q., Yang, L., Zhou, F.: Attention enhanced long short-term memory network with multi-source heterogeneous information fusion: An application to bgi genomics. Inf. Sci. 553, 305–330 (2021)
Zhao, Y., Du, H., Liu, Y., et al.: Stock movement prediction based on bi-typed hybrid-relational market knowledge graph via dual attention networks. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering (2022)
Zhong, T., Peng, Q., Wang, X., et al.: Novel indexes based on network structure to indicate financial market. Phys. A 443, 583–594 (2016)
Zhou, J., Cui, G., Hu, S., et al.: Graph neural networks: A review of methods and applications. AI open 1, 57–81 (2020)
Acknowledgements
This work was supported in part by the Key R &D program of Zhejiang Province (2022C01083), the National Science Foundation of China (62102262), the Development Project of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps 12th (no. SR202103), the Practice Conditions and Practice Base Construction of Ministry of Education (no.SR202102624032).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Kun Huang: conceptualization, methodology, writing—original draft. Xiaoming Li: validation, software. Yihe Yang: visualization, writing—reviewing and editing. Neal Xiong: supervision, data curation, investigation, formal analysis.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Communicated by J. Gao.
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
The original online version of this article was revised: copyright was changed.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Huang, K., Li, X., Xiong, N. et al. MF-DAT: a stock trend prediction of the double-graph attention network based on multisource information fusion. Multimedia Systems 30, 136 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00530-024-01333-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00530-024-01333-9