Abstract
The boreal summer Asian monsoon has been evaluated in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and 22 CMIP3 GCM simulations of the late twentieth Century. Diagnostics and skill metrics have been calculated to assess the time-mean, climatological annual cycle, interannual variability, and intraseasonal variability. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects of the monsoon, though there is no single model that best represents all of these aspects of the monsoon. The CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM) is more skillful than the CMIP3 MMM for all diagnostics in terms of the skill of simulating pattern correlations with respect to observations. Additionally, for rainfall/convection the MMM outperforms the individual models for the time mean, the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon, and intraseasonal variability. The pattern correlation of the time (pentad) of monsoon peak and withdrawal is better simulated than that of monsoon onset. The onset of the monsoon over India is typically too late in the models. The extension of the monsoon over eastern China, Korea, and Japan is underestimated, while it is overestimated over the subtropical western/central Pacific Ocean. The anti-correlation between anomalies of all-India rainfall and Niño3.4 sea surface temperature is overly strong in CMIP3 and typically too weak in CMIP5. For both the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection and the East Asian zonal wind-rainfall teleconnection, the MMM interannual rainfall anomalies are weak compared to observations. Though simulation of intraseasonal variability remains problematic, several models show improved skill at representing the northward propagation of convection and the development of the tilted band of convection that extends from India to the equatorial west Pacific. The MMM also well represents the space–time evolution of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies. Caution is necessary when using GPCP and CMAP rainfall to validate (1) the time-mean rainfall, as there are systematic differences over ocean and land between these two data sets, and (2) the timing of monsoon withdrawal over India, where the smooth southward progression seen in India Meteorological Department data is better realized in CMAP data compared to GPCP data.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Achuthavarier D, Krishnamurty V, Kirtman BP, Huang B (2012) Role of the Indian Ocean in the ENSO–Indian Summer Monsoon Teleconnection in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J Clim 25:2490–2508. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00111.1
Annamalai H, Sperber KR (2005) Regional heat sources and the active and break phases of boreal summer intraseasonal (30–50 day) variability. J Atmos Sci 62:2726–2748
Annamalai H, Slingo JM, Sperber KR, Hodges K (1999) The mean evolution and variability of the Asian summer monsoon: comparison of ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. Mon Weather Rev 127:1157–1186
Annamalai H, Hamilton K, Sperber KR (2007) The south Asian summer monsoon and its relationship to ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. J Clim 20:1071–1092. doi:10.1175/JCLI4035.1
Annamalai H, Hafner J, Sooraj KP, Pillai P (2012a) Global warming shifts monsoon circulation, drying South Asia. J Clim (in press)
Annamalai H, Mehari M, Sperber KR (2012b) A recipe for ENSO-monsoon diagnostics in CMIP5 models. J Clim (in preparation)
Arkin PA, Ardanuy PE (1989) Estimating climatic-scale precipitation from space: a review. J Clim 2:1229–1238
Blanford HF (1884) On the connection of the Himalaya snowfall with dry winds and seasons of drought in India. Proc R Soc Lond 37:3–22
Bollasina M, Nigam S (2009) Indian Ocean SST, evaporation, and precipitation during the South Asian summer monsoon in IPCC AR4 coupled simulations. Clim Dyn 33:1017–1032. doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0477-4
Boo K-O, Martin G, Sellar A, Senior C, Byun Y-H (2011) Evaluating the East Asian monsoon simulation in climate models. J Geophys Res 116:D01109. doi:10.1029/2010JD014737
Boschat G, Terray P, Masson S (2012) Robustness of SST teleconnections and precursory patterns associated with the Indian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 38:2143–2165. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1100-7
Charney J, Shukla J (1981) Predictability of monsoons. In: Lighthill J, Pearce RP (eds) Monsoon Dynamics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 99–109
Chen H, Zhou T, Neale RB, Wu X, Zhang GJ (2010) Performance of the new NCAR CAM3.5 in East Asian summer monsoon simulations: sensitivity to modifications of the convection scheme. J Clim 23:3657–3675
Findlater J (1970) A major low-level air current near the Indian Ocean during northern summer: interhemispheric transport of air in the lower troposphere over the western Indian Ocean. Q J R Meteorol Soc 96:551–554
Gadgil S, Sajani S (1998) Monsoon precipitation in the AMIP runs. Clim Dyn 14:659–689
Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106:447–462
Hoskins BJ, Rodwell MJ (1995) A model of the Asian summer monsoon. Part 1: the global scale. J Atmos Sci 52:1329–1340
Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Morrissey MM, Bolvin DT, Curtis S, Joyce R, McGavock B, Susskind J (2001) Global precipitation at one-degree daily resolution from multisatellite observations. J Hydrometeorol 2:36–50
Joseph S, Sahai AK, Goswami BN, Terray P, Masson S, Luo J–J (2012) Possible role of warm SST bias in the simulation of boreal summer monsoon in SINTEX-F2 coupled model. Clim Dyn 38:1561–1567. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1264-1
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelweski C, Wang J, Leetma A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471
Krishna Kumar K, Rajagopalan, Hoerling M, Bates G, Cane M (2006) Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Nino. Science 314:115–119. doi:10.1126science.1131152
Lau KM, Peng L (1990) Origin of low-frequency (intraseasonal) oscillations in the tropical atmosphere. Part III: monsoon dynamics. J Atmos Sci 47:1443–1462
Lau N-C, Nath MJ (2012) A model study of the air-sea interaction associated with the climatological aspects of interannual variability of the South Asian summer monsoon development. J Clim 25:839–857. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00035.1
Li C, Yanai M (1996) The onset and interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon in relation to land sea thermal contrast. J Clim 9:358–375
Li B, Zhou T (2011) ENSO-related principal interannual variability modes of early and late summer rainfall over East Asia in SST-driven AGCM simulations. J Geophys Res 116:D14118. doi:10.1029/2011JD015691
Liebmann B, Smith CA (1996) Description of a complete (interpolated) OLR dataset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:1275–1277
Lin J-L, Weickmann KM, Kiladis GN, Mapes BE, Schubert SD, Suarez MJ, Bacmeister JT, Lee M-I (2008) Subseasonal variability associated with the Asian Summer monsoon simulated by 14 IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs. J Clim 21:4541–4567. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI1816.1
LinHo, Wang B (2002) The time-space structure of the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon: a fast annual cycle view. J Clim 15:3206–3221
Liu X, Zhou T, Zhang L, Zou L, Wu B, Li Z (2011) The western North Pacific summer monsoon simulated by GAMIL1.0: influence of the parameterization of wind gustiness. Chin J Atmos Sci 35:871–884 (In Chinese)
Ma D, Kuang Z (2011) Modulation of radiative heating by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively coupled Kelvin waves as observed by CloudSat. Geophs Res Lett 38:L21813. doi:10.1029/2011GL049734
Mason D, Knutti R (2011) Climate model geneology. Geophys Res Lett 38:L08703. doi:10.1029/2011GL046864
Matsumoto J (1997) Seasonal transition of summer rainy season over Indochina and adjacent monsoon regions. Adv Atmos Sci 14:231–245
Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1383–1394
Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Caron JM, Annamalai H, Jochum M, Chakraborty A, Murtugudde R (2012) Monsoon regimes and processes in CCSM4, part 1: then Asian-Australian monsoon. J Clim 25:2583–2608. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00184.1
Mizuta R, Yoshimura H, Murakami H, Matsueda M, Endo H, Ose T, Kamiguchi K, Hosaka M, Sugi M, Yukimoto S, Kusunoki S, Kitoh A (2012) Climate simulations using MRI-AGCM3.2 with 20-km grid. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 90A:233–258. doi:10.2151/jmsj.2012-A12
Nakazawa T (1986) Intraseasonal variations of OLR in the tropics during the FGGE year. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 64:17–34
Onogi K, Tsutsui J, Koide H, Sakamoto M, Kobayashi S, Hatsushika H, Matsumoto T, Yamazaki N, Kamahori H, Takahashi K, Kadokura S, Wada K, Kato K, Oyama R, Ose T, Mannoji N, Taira R (2007) The JRA-25 reanalysis. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 85:369–432
Pearce RP, Mohanty UC (1984) Onsets of the Asian summer monsoon 1979–82. J Atmos Sci 41:1610–1639
Prasanna V, Annamalai H (2012) Moist dynamics of extended monsoon breaks over South Asia. J Clim 25:3810–3831. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00459.1
Rajeevan M, Najundiah RS (2009) Coupled model simulations of twentieth century climate of the Indian summer monsoon. In: Mukunda N (ed) Current trends in science, Indian Academy of Sciences, India, pp 537–567. http://www.ias.ac.in/academy/pjubilee/book.html
Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Kale JD, Lal B (2006) High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: analysis of break and active monsoon spells. Curr Sci 91:296–306
Rajeevan M, Unnikrishnan CK, Preethi B (2012) Evaluation of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon variability. Clim Dyn 38:2257–2274. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1061-x
Santer BD, Taylor KE, Gleckler PJ, Bonfils C, Barnett TP, Pierce DW, Wigley TML, Mears C, Wentz FJ, Bruggemann W, Gillet NP, Klein SA, Solomon S, Stott PA, Wehner MF (2009) Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution. Proc Nat Acad Sci 106:14778–14783
Slingo J, Annamalai H (2000) 1997: The El Niño of the century and the response of the Indian summer monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 128:1778–1797
Sperber KR, Annamamlai H (2008) Coupled model simulations of boreal summer intraseasonal (30–50 day) variability, part 1: systematic errors and caution on use of metrics. Clim Dyn 31:345–372. doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0367-9
Sperber KR, Palmer TN (1996) Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the atmospheric model intercomparison project. J Clim 9:2727–2750
Sperber KR, Slingo JM, Annamalai H (2000) Predictability and the relationship between subseasonal and interannual variability during the Asian summer monsoon. Q J R Meteorol Soc 126:2545–2574
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Turner AG, Annamalai H (2012) Climate change and the south Asian summer monsoon. Nature Clim Change 2:1–9. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1495
Turner AG, Sperber KR, Slingo J, Meehl G, Mechoso CR, Kimoto M, Giannini A (2011) Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behavior. In: Chang C-P, Ding Y, Lau N-C, Johnson RH, Wang B, Yasunari T (eds) The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast, 2nd edn. World Scientific Publishing Co., Singapore, pp 421–454
Uppala SM, Kallberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, Bechtold VD, Fiorino M, Gibson JK, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly GA, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan RP, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda MA, Beljaars ACM, Van De Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Holm E, Hoskins BJ, Isaksen L, Janssen P, Jenne R, McNally AP, Mahfouf JF, Morcrette JJ, Rayner NA, Saunders RW, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth KE, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131:2961–3012
Waliser DE, Jin K, Kang I-S, Stern WF, Schubert SD, Wu MLC, Lau K-M, Lee M-I, Krishnamurty V, Kitoh A, Meehl GA, Galin VY, Satyan V, Mandke SK, Wu G, Liu Y, Park C-K (2003) AGCM simulations of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 21:423–446. doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0337-1
Walker GT (1924) Correlation in seasonal variations of weather, IV, A further study of world weather. Mem Indian Meteorol Dept 24:275–332
Wang B (ed) (2006) The Asian monsoon. Springer, Berlin
Wang B, Fan Z (1999) Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80:629–638
Wang B, LinHo (2002) Rainy season of the Asian-Pacific Summer Monsoon. J Clim 15:386–398
Wang B, Xie X (1997) A model for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J Atmos Sci 54:72–86
Wang B, Kang I-S, Lee J-Y (2004) Ensemble simulations of Asian-Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs. J Clim 17:803–818
Wang B, Wu Z, Li J, Liu J, Chang C-P, Ding Y, Wu G (2008) How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 21:4449–4463
Watanabe M, Suzuki T, O’ishi R, Komuro Y, Watanabe S, Emori S, Takemura T, Chikira M, Ogura T, Sekiguchi M, Takata K, Yamazaki D, Yokohata T, Nozawa T, Hasumi H, Tatebe H, Kimoto M (2010) Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J Clim 23:6312–6335. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1
WCRP (1992) Simulation of interannual and intraseasonal monsoon variability. Rept. of Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA, 21–24 Oct 1991. WCRP-68, WMP/TD-470, WCRP, Geneva, Switzerland
WCRP (1993) Simulation and prediction of monsoons: recent results (TOGA/WGNE Monsoon). Numerical Experimentation Group, New Delhi, India, 12–14 Jan 1993. WCRP-80, WMP/TD-546, WCRP, Geneva, Switzerland
Webster PJ, Jian J (2011) Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world. Philos Trans R Soc A 369:4768–4797. doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0160
Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Thomas RA, Yanai M, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 103:14451–14510
Wilks DS (1995) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic Press, San Diego, CA
Wittenberg AT (2009) Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophys Res Lett 36:L12702. doi:10.1029/2009GL038710
Wu B, Zhou T (2012) Relationships between East Asian-western North Pacific monsoon and ENSO simulated by FGOALS-s2. Adv Atmos Sci (accepted)
Wu G, Gan Y, Liu Y, Yan J, Mao J (2012) Air–sea interaction and formation of the Asian summer monsoon onset vortex over the Bay of Bengal. Clim Dyn 38:261–279. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0978-9
Xie PP, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2539–2558
Zhou T, Li Z (2002) Simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon by using a variable resolution atmospheric GCM. Clim Dyn 19:167–180
Zhou T, Yu R-C (2005) Atmospheric water vapor transport associated with typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China. J Geophys Res 110:D08104. doi:10.1029/2004JD005413
Zhou T, Zou L (2010) Understanding the predictability of East Asian summer monsoon from the reproduction of land-sea thermal contrast change in AMIP-type simulation. J Clim 23:6009–6026. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3546.1
Zhou T, Wu B, Wang B (2009a) How well do atmospheric general circulation models capture the leading modes of the interannual variability of the Asian–Australian monsoon? J Clim 22:1159–1173
Zhou T, Gong D, Li J, Li B (2009b) Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon—Recent progress and state of affairs. Meteorol Z 18:455–467
Zhou T, Wu B, Scaife AA, Bronnimann S, Cherchi A, Fereday D, Fischer AM, Folland CK, Jin KE, Kinter J, Knight JR, Kucharski F, Kusunoki S, Lau N-C, Li L, Nath MJ, Nakaegawa T, Navarra A, Pegion P, Rozanov E, Schubert S, Sporyshev P, Voldoire A, Wen X, Yoon JH, Zeng N (2009c) The CLIVAR C20C Project: which components of the Asian-Australian Monsoon circulation variations are forced and reproducible? Clim Dyn 33:1051–1068. doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0501-8
Zhou T, Hsu H-H, Matsumoto J (2011) Summer monsoons in East Asian Indochina, and the western North Pacific. In: Chang C-P, Ding Y, Lau N-C, Johnson RH, Wang B, Yasunari T (eds) The Global Monsoon System, Research and Forecast, 2nd edn. World Scientific Publishing Co, Singapore, pp 43–72
Acknowledgments
We thank the CLIVAR AAMP and other invited experts for helpful comments and encouragement during the course of this work. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. K. R. Sperber was supported by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy through Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. H. Annamalai was supported by the Office of Science (BER) U.S. Department of Energy, Grant DEFG02-07ER6445, and also by three institutional grants (JAMSTEC, NOAA and NASA) of the International Pacific Research Center. In-Sik Kang was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2009-C1AAA001-2009-0093042). Aurel Moise was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program, funded jointly by the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. A. G. Turner is supported by a NERC Fellowship reference number NE/H015655/1. B. Wang was supported by US NSF award #AGS-1005599.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sperber, K.R., Annamalai, H., Kang, IS. et al. The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century. Clim Dyn 41, 2711–2744 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6