Abstract
The forecast of regional tourism demand is a complicated system. The developmental change possesses the dual trend of increasing and fluctuation. So it is very difficult to forecast. Based on the data feature of regional tourism demand, three forecast models are adopted , namely the exponential smoothing prediction , the gray prediction and the exponential smoothing prediction. Combined the characteristics of three forecast methods, a forecast model with weight-varying combination is proposed. The exactness of the combination forecast model is validated through the contrast and analysis with practical cases. Estimated results show that the weight-varying combination forecast model can overmatch the single forecast model. The weight-varying combination model is valuable for the forecast of regional tourism demand with the uncertainty system.
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Liu, L. (2012). Demand Forecast of Regional Tourism Based on Variable Weight Combination Model. In: Liu, C., Wang, L., Yang, A. (eds) Information Computing and Applications. ICICA 2012. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 308. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34041-3_92
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-34041-3_92
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