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Forecasting Canadian Elections Using Twitter

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Advances in Artificial Intelligence (Canadian AI 2016)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNAI,volume 9673))

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Abstract

Experiments forecasting Canadian elections with Twitter are presented. A methodology for creating a representative Twitter sample is described and validated against census data. This sample and election polls are input into a VARX forecast model. The model covariance error monitors the forecast accuracy, measuring forecast confidence before the election occurs. The model is tested on several Canadian elections.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Microsoft’s Bing Maps, https://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ff701713.aspx.

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Correspondence to Kenton White .

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White, K. (2016). Forecasting Canadian Elections Using Twitter. In: Khoury, R., Drummond, C. (eds) Advances in Artificial Intelligence. Canadian AI 2016. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 9673. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-34111-8_24

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-34111-8_24

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-34110-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-34111-8

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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