Abstract
Agent-based models (ABM) for policy design need to be grounded in empirical data. While many ABMs rely on quantitative data such as surveys, much empirical research in the social sciences is based on qualitative research methods such as interviews or observations that are hard to translate into a set of quantitative rules, leading to a gap in the phenomena that ABM can explain. As such, there is a lack of a clear methodology to systematically develop ABMs for policy design on the basis of qualitative empirical research. In this paper, a two-stage methodology is proposed that takes an exploratory approach to the development of ABMs in socio-technical systems based on qualitative data. First, a conceptual framework centered on a particular policy design problem is developed based on empirical insights from one or more case studies. Second, the framework is used to guide the development of an ABM. This step is sensitive to the purpose of the model, which can be theoretical or empirical. The proposed methodology is illustrated by an application for disaster information management in Jakarta, resulting in an empirical descriptive ABM.
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Notes
- 1.
Empirical models have a direct relationships with a specific case study. Descriptions, explanations and predictions are examples of empirical modelling purposes. Theoretical models do not have a direct relationship with any case study. Illustrations and theoretical expositions are examples of theoretical modelling purposes [10].
- 2.
With this distinction, the authors do not imply that theoretical models cannot be used in practical settings. However, theoretical model can be applied in practice only if their micro assumptions and macro implications have been empirically tested [14].
- 3.
New criteria or more detailed criteria may be introduced at this stage compared to those presented in the framework.
- 4.
Two of the most affected communities in the city were considered: Marunda and Kampung Melayu.
- 5.
For instance, the conceptualization of the environment in a crisis as a series of cascading shocks producing information needs was introduced as in [21].
- 6.
Omitted in this article for brevity.
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Nespeca, V., Comes, T., Brazier, F. (2022). A Methodology to Develop Agent-Based Models for Policy Design in Socio-Technical Systems Based on Qualitative Inquiry. In: Czupryna, M., Kamiński, B. (eds) Advances in Social Simulation. Springer Proceedings in Complexity. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-92843-8_34
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