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The Applications of Z-numbers in the Delphi Method

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Information and Software Technologies (ICIST 2021)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 1486))

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Abstract

In many areas of life, we are dealing with predicting the value of certain phenomena and processes. One of the methods that allow for long-term prediction is the Delphi method. It uses aggregated expert knowledge, which is available future for experts in subsequent rounds. One of the Delphi method variations is the method that uses Z-numbers, that is, ordered pairs of fuzzy numbers as prediction values. Such a variant of the Delphi method proposed in the literature does not directly use Z-numbers’ calculus. Still, it reduces them in an appropriate way to fuzzy numbers, significantly simplifying the calculations but, at the same time, losing a certain amount of information. This article proposes a different approach to the Z-number-based Delphi method. This modification uses simple Z-number calculations. Only in the last step of the experts’ round, it is converted to a fuzzy number so that finally, after going through all the rounds, the prediction value is crisp. The analysis of this aspect is critical in the case of complex decision-making processes in which the loss of information may result in a wrong decision. The Delphi method’s proposed variant is illustrated by the example of determining the price of a product and combined with previous work of authors presents the new approach.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics Applications and Methods for Artificial Intelligence, Silesian University of Technology, Kaszubska 23, 44-100, Gliwice, Poland

    Marcin Lawnik & Arkadiusz Banasik

Authors
  1. Marcin Lawnik
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  2. Arkadiusz Banasik
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Correspondence to Arkadiusz Banasik .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Kaunas University of Technology, Kaunas, Lithuania

    Audrius Lopata

  2. Kaunas University of Technology, Kaunas, Lithuania

    Daina Gudonienė

  3. Kaunas University of Technology, Kaunas, Lithuania

    Rita Butkienė

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Lawnik, M., Banasik, A. (2021). The Applications of Z-numbers in the Delphi Method. In: Lopata, A., Gudonienė, D., Butkienė, R. (eds) Information and Software Technologies. ICIST 2021. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1486. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-88304-1_19

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-88304-1_19

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  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-88304-1

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