Abstract
The chapter reports the results of research whose objective involved the analysis of the time-frequency waveforms representing variables affecting the residential construction market. The investigation of the time and frequency characteristics of the time series provides the identification of subannual, seasonal and interannual components in them with the purpose of defining variables describing the stages of the construction process, i.e. variables expressing the number of building permits issued, the number of dwellings under construction and the number of new dwellings completed. The adequate determination of periodic characteristics offers the simultaneous parameterization of subannual, seasonal and long-term variabilities of the resulting waveforms. The proposed algorithm uses combination of FFT, inverse FFT method and subannual spectra peak model. The identification provides adequate analysis of the residential construction market, and at the same time contributes to reducing the information gap in the decision-making process in the field of the housing market for the subjects that operate on the demand and supply sides of this market.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
- 1.
Forms: individual, cooperative ownership, built for sale or rent, intended for rent, communal.
References
Bengtsson, E., Grothe, M., Lepers, E.: Home, safe home: cross-country monitoring framework for vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector. J. Bank. Financ. 112, 105268 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.12.006
Chan, S., Han, G., Zhang, W.: How strong are the linkages between real estate and other sectors in China? Res. Int. Bus. Financ. 36, 52–72 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.09.018
Coombs, W.T., Laufer, D.: Global crisis management – current research and future directions. J. Int. Manag. 24, 199–203 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intman.2017.12.003
Degl’Innocenti, M., Grant, K., Šević, A., Tzeremes, N.G.: Financial stability, competitiveness and banks’ innovation capacity: evidence from the Global Financial Crisis. Int. Rev. Financ. Anal. 59, 35–46 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.07.009
Deng, Y., Zeng, Y., Li, Z.: Real estate prices and systemic banking crises. Econ. Model. 80, 111–120 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.09.032
Devaney, S., Xiao, Q.: Cyclical co-movements of private real estate, public real estate and equity markets: a cross-continental spectrum. J. Multinatl. Financ. Manag. 42–43, 132–151 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mulfin.2017.10.002
Escobari, D., Jafarinejad, M.: Date stamping bubbles in real estate investment trusts. Q. Rev. Econ. Financ. 60, 224–230 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2015.10.003
Fan, Y., Yang, Z., Yavas, A.: Understanding real estate price dynamics: the case of housing prices in five major cities of China✰. J. Hous. Econ. 43, 37–55 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2018.09.003
Fernández Muñoz, S., Collado Cueto, L.: What has happened in Spain? The real estate bubble, corruption and housing development: a view from the local level. Geoforum 85, 206–213 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2017.08.002
Gabauer, D., Gupta, R.: Spillovers across macroeconomic, financial and real estate uncertainties: a time-varying approach. Struct. Chang. Econ. Dyn. 52, 167–173 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.09.009
Gallegati, M., Delli Gatti, D.: Macrofinancial imbalances in historical perspective: a global crisis index. J. Econ. Dyn. Control 91, 190–205 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.026
Gong, P., Zou, D., Wang, J.: Pricing and simulation for real estate index options: radial basis point interpolation. Phys. A Stat. Mech. Appl. 500, 177–188 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.135
Hartzell, J.C., Sun, L., Titman, S.: Institutional investors as monitors of corporate diversification decisions: evidence from real estate investment trusts. J. Corp. Financ. 25, 61–72 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2013.10.006
He, Y., Xia, F.: Heterogeneous traders, house prices and healthy urban housing market: a DSGE model based on behavioral economics. Habitat Int. 96, 102085 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2019.102085
Hei-Ling Lam, C., Chi-Man Hui, E.: How does investor sentiment predict the future real estate returns of residential property in Hong Kong? Habitat Int. 75, 1–1 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2018.02.009
Hofman, A., Aalbers, M.B.: A finance-and real estate-driven regime in the United Kingdom. Geoforum 100, 89–100 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2019.02.014
Lee, H.S., Lee, W.S.: Cross-regional connectedness in the Korean housing market. J. Hous. Econ. 46, 101654 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2019.101654
Liow, K.H., Newell, G.: Real estate global beta and spillovers: an international study. Econ. Model. 59, 297–313 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.08.001
Mach, Ł: Prices of accommodation rental as functioning on the basis of a sharing economy in the capitals of cee states. Argumenta Oeconomica 45, 141–162 (2020). https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2020.2.06
Mach, Ł: Measuring and assessing the impact of the global economic crisis on European real property market. J. Bus. Econ. Manag. 20, 1189–1209 (2019). https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2019.11234
Mach, Ł, Zmarzły, D., Dąbrowski, I., Frącz, P.: Identification and parametrization of polycyclicity in the primary housing market. J. Hous. Built Environ. (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-020-09817-6
Mach, Ł, Zmarzły, D., Dąbrowski, I., Frącz, P.: comparison on subannual seasonality of building construction in European countries. Eur. Res. Stud. J. 23, 241–257 (2020a)
Mach, Ł., Zmarzły, D., Dąbrowski, I., Frącz, P.: A time-frequency analysis of the housing construction time as the basis for making decisions (the case study of poland). Pr. Nauk. Uniw. Ekon. we Wrocławiu 64, 54–71 (2020b). https://doi.org/10.15611/pn.2020.8.05
Mach, Ł., Zmarzły, D., Dąbrowski, I., Frącz, P.: Identification of harmonic models based on fourier transforms as a tool for parameterization of the dwelling construction market. In: Khalid, S. (ed.) Education Excellence and Innovation Management: A 2025 Vision to Sustain Economic Development during Global Challenges. Proceedings of the 35th International Business Information Management Association Conference (IBIMA), pp. 11295–11316. International Business Information Management Association (2020c)
Makin, A.J.: Lessons for macroeconomic policy from the Global Financial Crisis. Econ. Anal. Policy 64, 13–25 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2019.07.008
Martins, A.M., Serra, A.P., Stevenson, S.: Determinants of real estate bank profitability. Res. Int. Bus. Financ. 49, 282–300 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.04.004
Phasuphan, W., Praphairaksit, N., Imyim, A.: Removal of ibuprofen, diclofenac, and naproxen from water using chitosan-modified waste tire crumb rubber. J. Mol. Liq. 294, 111554 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.molliq.2019.111554
Rokita-Poskart, D., Mach, Ł: Selected meso-economic consequences of the changing number of students in academic towns and cities (a case study of Poland). Sustainability 11(7), 1901 (2019). https://doi.org/10.3390/su11071901
Manjunath, S.V., Baghel, R.S., Kumar, M.: Performance evaluation of cement–carbon composite for adsorptive removal of acidic and basic dyes from single and multi-component systems. Environ. Technol. Innov. 16, 100478 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eti.2019.100478
Seok, S.I., Cho, H., Ryu, D.: The information content of funds from operations and net income in real estate investment trusts. North Am. J. Econ. Financ. 51, 101063 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2019.101063
Silva, M.E.A., da Nóbrega Besarria, C., Baerlocher, D.: Aggregate shocks and the Brazilian housing market dynamics. Economia 20, 121–137 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2019.08.001
Tupenaite, L., Kanapeckiene, L., Naimaviciene, J.: Determinants of housing market fluctuations: case study of Lithuania. Procedia Eng. 172, 1169–1175 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.02.136
Wang, L., Li, S., Wang, J., Meng, Y.: Real estate bubbles in a bank-real estate loan network model integrating economic cycle and macro-prudential stress testing. Phys. A Stat. Mech. Appl. 542, 122576 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.122576
Wright, D., Yanotti, M.B.: Home advantage: the preference for local residential real estate investment. Pacific Basin Financ. J. 57, 101167 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2019.06.014
Yépez, C.A.: Financial intermediation and real estate prices impact on business cycles: a Bayesian analysis. North Am. J. Econ. Financ. 45, 138–160 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2018.02.006
Zhao, S.X.B., Zhan, H., Jiang, Y., Pan, W.: How big is China’s real estate bubble and why hasn’t it burst yet? Land Use Policy 64, 153–162 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.02.024
Acknowledgement
The paper presents the personal opinions of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the Narodowy Bank Polski.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2021 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Mach, L., Paszkiel, S., Grubiak, M. (2021). Subannual, Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Data on Residential Construction Market - Case Study for Poland. In: Paszkiel, S. (eds) Control, Computer Engineering and Neuroscience. ICBCI 2021. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 1362. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72254-8_30
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72254-8_30
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-72253-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-72254-8
eBook Packages: Intelligent Technologies and RoboticsIntelligent Technologies and Robotics (R0)