- 2. Klasen (2010), among others, has noted that these results probably overestimate poverty rates in China and India because they are driven in part by the recalculation of the 2005 PPP data.
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- 3. However, the recent Ravallion and Chen (March 2010) estimate for the impact of the economic crisis on MDG 1 at US$1.25/day was to add 65 million more poor people in 2009 and 2010. The World Bank (2010: 115) estimates are that if recovery from the current economic recession is rapid there will be an estimated 918 million poor people in 2015. If recovery is weak there will be 1.132 billion poor people in 2015. In either case about 40 per cent of the worldâs poor will live in sub-Saharan Africa. 4. The World Bank uses such estimates for operational purposes and for lending as a measure of poverty on which to base IDA credit allocations; to distinguish more advanced countries that should receive IBRD loans; and for countries where preference is granted to domestic civil works contractors.
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- 5. Collierâs focus on the poorest countries (LICs and âfragile statesâ) has been acted upon by a number of donors such as Britainâs Department for International Development (DFID) and the World Bank, for instance in terms of priorities chosen and programmes funded. Take, as one example, DFIDâs (2009: 71,129) White Paper, which allocated half of all new bilateral country funding to fragile states and noted the closing of nine country offices between 2007 and 2010, thus echoing Collier that development agencies should stop aid to countries on a path to sustained growth and focus on the core problem of the bottom billion.
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- 6. For example, The Lancet estimated just six countries account for 50 per cent of under-five mortality (U5M) (over 5 million children). These are a mix of fragile and non-fragile populous countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Pakistan and China (and 42 countries account for 90 per cent of U5M: Bryce et al., 2005). Similarly, maternal deaths are concentrated in 11 countries, which account for 65 per cent of all maternal deaths (348,400 women). Again, many are fragile states but some are not: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Niger, Tanzania and Angola (WHO/UNICEF/UNFPA/World Bank, 2007). Both sets of estimates were recently and contentiously revised (see Hogan et al., 2010; You et al., 2010).
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- 7. When Harttgen and Klasen (2010) assessed the usefulness of the concept of âfragilityâ and how lists differ, they concluded that the heterogeneity of countries under various FCAS classifications is so great it is not useful to treat them as a group because the problems they face and the solutions differ greatly. 8. We could take these proportions and extrapolate the millions of poor people based on the proportions of the worldâs poor. However, here we simply list actual data in millions for countries with data in our dataset. 9. See http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications/a-short-history.
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- Alkire, S. and M. Santos (2010). âAcute Multi-dimensional Poverty Index: A New Index for Developing Countriesâ, OHPI Working Paper 38. Oxford, OHPI.
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Barder, O. (2009). What is Poverty Reduction?, CGD Working Paper 170, Washington, DC, CGD.
Barder, O. (2010). âBeyond Planning: Markets and Networks for Better Aidâ, CGD Working Paper 185. Washington, DC, CGD.
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Fischer, A. (2009). âPutting Aid in Its Place: Insights from Early Structuralists on Aid and Balance of Payments and Lessons for Contemporary Aid Debatesâ, Journal of International Development 21 (6), 856â67.
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Harris, D., M. Moore and H. Schmitz (2009). âCountry Classifications for a Changing Worldâ, IDS Working Paper 326. Brighton, IDS.
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- Ravallion, M. and Chen, S. (2010). The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Worldâs Poorest (original, April 2009; updated April 2010), original published at www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3520.
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- Severino, J-M. and O. Ray (2009). âThe End of ODA: Death and Rebirth of a Global Public Policyâ, CGD Working Paper 167. Washington, DC, CGD.
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- Severino, J-M. and O. Ray, O. (2010). âThe End of ODA (II): The Birth of Hypercollective Actionâ, CGD Working Paper 218. Washington, DC, CGD.
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- UNESCO (2010). Education for All: Global Monitoring Report. Paris, UNESCO.
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- You, D. et al. (2010). âLevels and Trends in Under-Five Mortality, 1990â2008â, The Lancet 375 (9709), 100â3. NOTES 1. The author would like to thank in particular Ricardo Santos for research assistance and the following people for comments and discussion on earlier drafts: Simon Maxwell, Stephan Klasen, Terry McKinley, Andrew Fischer, Andrew Rogerson, Jon Lomoy, Richard Manning, Richard Jolly, Jeni Klugman, Peter Edwards, Alan Winters, Nick Dyer, Jo McCrae and Chris Pyecroft.
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