Michigan's 4th Congressional District election, 2018

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General election
General election for U.S. House Michigan District 4

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Moolenaar
John Moolenaar (R)
 
62.6
 
178,510
Image of Jerry Hilliard
Jerry Hilliard (D)
 
37.4
 
106,540

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 285,050
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Michigan's 4th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 24, 2018
Primary: August 7, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
John Moolenaar (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Michigan
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+10
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Michigan's 4th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 13th (special)
Michigan elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Michigan, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was John Moolenaar (R), who was first elected in 2014.

Michigan's 4th Congressional District is located in the central region of the lower peninsula of Michigan. It includes the counties of Clare, Clinton, Gladwin, Gratiot, Isabella, Mecosta, Midland, Missaukee, Ogemaw, Osceola, Roscommon, Shiawassee, and Wexford. It also includes portions of Montcalm and Saginaw counties.[1]




Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 4

Incumbent John Moolenaar defeated Jerry Hilliard in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Moolenaar
John Moolenaar (R)
 
62.6
 
178,510
Image of Jerry Hilliard
Jerry Hilliard (D)
 
37.4
 
106,540

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 285,050
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 4

Jerry Hilliard defeated Zigmond Kozicki in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 4 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jerry Hilliard
Jerry Hilliard
 
66.5
 
32,263
Image of Zigmond Kozicki
Zigmond Kozicki
 
33.5
 
16,261

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 48,524
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 4

Incumbent John Moolenaar advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 4 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Moolenaar
John Moolenaar
 
100.0
 
80,290

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 80,290
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+10, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 10 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Michigan's 4th Congressional District the 132nd most Republican nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.12. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.12 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
John Moolenaar Republican Party $1,172,131 $1,091,060 $118,694 As of December 31, 2018
Jerry Hilliard Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: Michigan's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent John Moolenaar (R) defeated Leonard Schwartz (L), Jordan Salvi (G), George Zimmer (U.S. Taxpayers), Keith Butkovich (Natural Law), and Debra Wirth (D write-in) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[4][5][6][7]

U.S. House, Michigan District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Moolenaar Incumbent 61.6% 194,572
     Democratic Debra Wirth 32.1% 101,277
     Libertarian Leonard Schwartz 2.7% 8,516
     U.S. Taxpayers George Zimmer 1.8% 5,595
     Green Jordan Salvi 1.3% 3,953
     Natural Law Keith Butkovich 0.6% 1,838
Total Votes 315,751
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

2014

See also: Michigan's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Michigan held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. John Moolenaar (R) defeated Jeff Holmes (D), George Zimmer (I) and Will Tyler White (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Michigan District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Moolenaar 56.5% 123,962
     Democratic Jeff Holmes 39.1% 85,777
     Libertarian Will Tyler White 2.1% 4,694
     U.S. Tax Payers Party Georgia M. Zimmer 2.3% 4,990
Total Votes 219,423
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Twelve of 83 Michigan counties—14 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Bay County, Michigan 12.55% 5.56% 15.31%
Calhoun County, Michigan 12.46% 1.60% 9.36%
Eaton County, Michigan 4.72% 3.13% 8.40%
Gogebic County, Michigan 14.80% 8.10% 17.27%
Isabella County, Michigan 3.66% 9.28% 19.26%
Lake County, Michigan 22.77% 5.01% 12.28%
Macomb County, Michigan 11.53% 3.99% 8.62%
Manistee County, Michigan 15.29% 5.93% 13.26%
Monroe County, Michigan 21.97% 0.98% 4.35%
Saginaw County, Michigan 1.13% 11.89% 17.34%
Shiawassee County, Michigan 19.59% 3.67% 8.59%
Van Buren County, Michigan 13.92% 0.45% 8.78%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Michigan with 47.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1836 and 2016, Michigan voted Republican 60.8 percent of the time and Democratic 34.7 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Michigan voted Democratic four out of the five elections.[8]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Michigan. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[9][10]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 53 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 37.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 43 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 39.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 57 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 12.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 67 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. Trump won eight districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Michigan heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Michigan State Legislature. They had a 63-46 majority in the state House and a 27-10 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Michigan elections, 2018

Michigan held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Michigan
 MichiganU.S.
Total population:9,917,715316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):56,5393,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:79%73.6%
Black/African American:14%12.6%
Asian:2.7%5.1%
Native American:0.5%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.6%3%
Hispanic/Latino:4.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.6%86.7%
College graduation rate:26.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$49,576$53,889
Persons below poverty level:20%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Michigan.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Michigan's three largest cities were Detroit (pop. est. 673,000), Grand Rapids (pop. est. 199,000), and Warren (pop. est. 135,000).[11]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Michigan from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Michigan Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Michigan every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Michigan 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 47.5% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.3% 0.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 54.2% Republican Party Mitt Romney 44.7% 9.5%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 57.4% Republican Party John McCain 41.0% 16.4%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 51.2% Republican Party George W. Bush 47.8% 3.4%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 51.3% Republican Party George W. Bush 46.2% 5.1%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Michigan from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Michigan 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Gary Peters 54.6% Republican Party Terri Lynn Land 41.3% 13.3%
2012 Democratic Party Debbie Stabenow 58.8% Republican Party Pete Hoekstra 38.0% 20.8%
2008 Democratic Party Carl Levin 62.7% Republican Party Jack Hoogendyk, Jr. 33.9% 28.8%
2006 Democratic Party Debbie Stabenow 56.9% Republican Party Michael Bouchard 41.3% 15.6%
2002 Democratic Party Carl Levin 60.6% Republican Party Rocky Raczkowski 37.9% 22.7%
2000 Democratic Party Debbie Stabenow 49.5% Republican Party Spence Abraham 47.9% 1.6%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Michigan.

Election results (Governor), Michigan 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Rick Snyder 50.9% Democratic Party Mark Schauer 46.9% 4.0%
2010 Republican Party Rick Snyder 58.1% Democratic Party Virg Bernero 39.9% 18.2%
2006 Democratic Party Jennifer Granholm 56.4% Republican Party Dick DeVos 42.3% 14.1%
2002 Democratic Party Jennifer Granholm 51.4% Republican Party Dick Posthumus 47.4% 4.0%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Michigan in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Michigan 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 9 64.3% Democratic Party 5 35.7% R+4
2014 Republican Party 9 64.3% Democratic Party 5 35.7% R+4
2012 Republican Party 9 64.3% Democratic Party 5 35.7% R+4
2010 Republican Party 9 60.0% Democratic Party 6 40.0% R+3
2008 Republican Party 7 46.7% Democratic Party 8 53.3% D+1
2006 Republican Party 8 53.3% Democratic Party 7 46.7% R+1
2004 Republican Party 9 60.0% Democratic Party 6 40.0% R+3
2002 Republican Party 9 60.0% Democratic Party 6 40.0% R+3
2000 Republican Party 7 43.75% Democratic Party 9 56.25% D+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Michigan Party Control: 1992-2024
Two years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D
House D S S R R D D R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed April 20, 2016
  5. ↑ Politico, "Michigan House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  6. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed September 6, 2016
  7. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
  8. ↑ 270towin.com, "Michigan," accessed June 29, 2017
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  10. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  11. ↑ Michigan Demographics, "Michigan Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2018
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Michigan's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Gary Peters (D)
Debbie Stabenow (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Democratic Party (9)
Republican Party (6)

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