Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 10, 2020

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Published on August 28, 2020

Last updated on February 4, 2022[1]
2020 State Legislative Competitiveness
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Ballotpedia's 10th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzes all 5,875 state legislative elections that took place in November 2020.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to analyze the competitiveness of a state's legislative elections: how many incumbents filed for re-election, how many incumbents have contested primaries, and how many seats are contested between a Democratic and a Republican candidate in the general election.

State legislative competitiveness in 2020 was below average compared to all even-year elections since 2010. Competitiveness decreased from 2018, but was higher than 2016, the most recent presidential election year.

The number of major party candidates running for state legislatures was down 8.5% this year compared to 2018, accompanied by a 3.2% decrease in seats up for election. 12,363 candidates sought 5,875 state legislative seats in 2020, a 1,026-candidate and 198-seat decrease from 13,389 candidates seeking 6,073 seats in 2018, returning to levels similar to the 2016 elections.

Key findings of this analysis include:

HIGHLIGHTS
  • 85.1% of incumbents sought re-election, the highest percentage in a decade and an increase from 80.6% in 2018.
  • 79.7% of incumbents advanced to the general election without a primary challenge, an increase from 78.1% in 2018.
  • 34.9% of state legislative seats were contested by only one major party candidate, an increase from 33.2% in 2018.[2]

    • This report is organized into four sections. They are:

    Decade overview

    See also: Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections

    From 2010 to 2020, competitiveness in state legislative elections decreased overall. Elections in 2010 saw the decade's highest level of competitiveness, which declined over the following years reaching a decade-low in 2014. Competitiveness increased in 2016 and 2018, reaching levels similar to 2010 before declining again in 2020. The average Competitiveness Index for the decade was 34.2.

    State legislative competitiveness in 2020 was below the decade average.

    The table below shows the Competitiveness Index and three factors used to calculate the index for each of the even-year elections between 2010 and 2020 as well as decade averages. Indices range from 0 to 100 with higher numbers indicating a more competitive electoral field and lower numbers indicating the opposite. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

    The 2010 and 2018 election cycles, both midterms, saw the highest Competitiveness Indices driven by higher-than-average numbers of general elections with major party competition. These increases in major party competition saw partisan peaks as well: in 2010, the first midterm following the election of Barack Obama (D), Republicans contested 84.6% of all seats, more than at any other point in the decade. In 2018, the first midterm following the election of Donald Trump (R), Democrats contested 88% of all seats, the highest rate for that party during the decade. Regarding major party competition, elections in 2020 saw the highest levels relative to the preceding two presidential election cycles indicating either an outlier or a trend towards higher levels of major party competition.

    Decade comparison
    2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 DECADE
    Competitiveness Index 36.2 35.8 31.4 32.1 36.0 33.5 34.2
    % Open seats 18.6% 21.2% 17.0% 17.6% 19.4% 14.9% 18.1%
    % Inc in contested primaries 22.7% 24.6% 20.1% 20.6% 21.9% 20.3% 21.7%
    % Seats with major party competition 67.4% 61.7% 57.0% 58.2% 66.8% 65.1% 62.7%

    2020 state-by-state comparison

    Each state is given a composite score, made up of the average between the percentage of open seats, incumbents in contested primaries, and seats with major party competition. A higher composite score indicates a more competitive state legislative electoral field.

    The five states with the highest composite scores in 2020 were:

    1. Michigan (50.4)
    2. West Virginia (50.0)
    3. New Hampshire (48.0)
    4. California (47.0)
    5. Florida (41.9)

    The five states with the lowest composite scores in 2020 were:

    44. Massachusetts (13.1)
    43. Arkansas (19.4)
    42. Rhode Island (21.6)
    41. Delaware (23.3)
    40. Tennessee (23.6)


    Click [show] on the table below to see Competitiveness Index data for all states with state legislative elections in 2020. Columns can be sorted to view overall state-by-state ranks for each of the three competitiveness factors.


    Incumbents not seeking re-election

    See also: Open seats in the 2020 state legislative elections

    In districts where the incumbent legislator does not run for re-election, the seat is guaranteed to a newcomer.

    • 85.1% of incumbents (5,001) sought re-election, the highest percentage in a decade.
    • 14.9% of incumbents (877) did not run for re-election, meaning newcomers were guaranteed to win those seats.[3]
    • 394 Democratic state legislators (44.9% of the total) did not seek re-election.
    • 477 Republican state legislators (54.4% of the total) did not seek re-election.
    • Six minor-party or independent state legislators (0.7% of the total) did not seek re-election.

    Click [show] on the table header below for complete, state-by-state information on open seats and guaranteed newcomers.

    Historical comparison


    To read more about incumbents not seeking re-election in 2020, and guaranteed newcomers, click here.

    Impact of term limits

    See also: Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2020

    At the time of the Nov. 3 elections, fifteen states used term limits for state legislators. All of them had elections in 2020 except for Louisiana.

    • Term limits impacted 211 state legislators in 2020, a decrease from 253 in 2016, the previous presidential-year election cycle.
    • There were fewer term-limited legislators in 2020 than in any Ballotpedia had tracked since 2010.
    • By party, 122 Republicans, 82 Democrats, and seven third party or independent incumbents were term-limited.
    • The Missouri Senate and House of Representatives had the highest percentage of term-limited legislators in 2020. In the Missouri Senate, 47% of the incumbents up for election were term-limited, while 21% of the Missouri House were term-limited.

    Term limits create open seats. This tends to draw more competitors than when an incumbent runs for re-election because incumbents in state legislative elections have a high re-election rate. For example, between 1972 and 2014, the state legislative incumbency win rate never fell below 90%, with the exception of 1974 when 88% of incumbents won re-election.

    The table below shows 2020's term-limited legislators and gives a breakdown of the totals for each legislative chamber.

    Senate

    Term limits impacted 60 state senators in 13 state Senates: 21 Democrats, 33 Republicans, and six third party or independent senators. The Democratic Party was the majority party in four of the 13 term-limited state Senates with elections in 2020, while the Republican Party held the majority in nine.

    In 2016, 67 state Senators in 13 states were term-limited: 29 Democrats, 26 Republicans, and 12 third party or independent senators. In 2012, 83 state Senators in 13 states were term-limited: 35 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and eight third party or independent senators.

    House

    Term limits impacted 151 state representatives in 13 state Houses: 61 Democrats, 89 Republicans, and one independent. The Democratic Party was the majority party in four of the 13 term-limited state Houses, while the Republican Party held the majority in nine.

    In 2016, 186 state Representatives in 13 states were term-limited: 84 Democrats and 102 Republicans. In 2012, 172 state Representatives in 13 states were term-limited: 87 Democrats and 85 Republicans.

    To read more about the effect of term limits on state legislative elections in 2020, click here.

    Competitiveness in primary elections

    See also: 2020 primary election competitiveness in state and federal government

    As the charts below show, there were 1,135 fewer primary candidates in 2020 than in 2018, reaching levels similar to 2016 and 2014. 2020 saw the lowest number of open seats, meaning more incumbents seeking re-election, compared to the previous three even-year elections. The number of incumbents facing primaries was roughly similar to 2016 and 2014, but less than 2018. There were fewer total primaries in 2020 compared to 2018 and 2016, but more than there were in 2014.



    To read more about the competitiveness of state legislative primary elections in 2020, click here.

    Incumbents in contested primaries

    See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2020

    In 2020, 4,994 incumbents sought re-election.[23] 20.4% (1,017) had a contested primary. 79.6% (3,977) advanced to the general election without a primary challenge.

    • 79.6% of incumbents seeking re-election in 2020 advanced to the general election without a primary.
    • 20.4% (1,107) of incumbents had a contested primary in 2020. This included 20.6% of Democratic incumbents (497) and 20.3% of Republican incumbents (519).
    • Wyoming was the only state where over 50% of incumbents seeking re-election had a contested primary.
    • In seven states, less than 10% of incumbents seeking re-election had a contested primary.

    The five states with the highest percentages of incumbents in contested primaries included:

    1. Wyoming
    2. West Virginia
    3. California
    4. Alaska
    5. Arizona


    The five states with the lowest percentages of incumbents in contested primaries included:

    44. Connecticut
    43. Maine
    42. Iowa
    41. Colorado
    41. North Dakota


    Click [show] on the table below to see details regarding incumbents in contested primaries in each state.


    To read more about the incumbents in contested primaries in 2020, click here.

    Seats without major party competition

    See also: Major party candidates with major party competition in the November 2020 state legislative elections[2]

    In 2020, 2,048 state legislative seats, 34.9% of all seats up for election, did not have major party competition. When a candidate from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties runs for a state legislative seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party.

    • Democrats contested 82.7% of all state legislative seats. 1,019 state legislative seats (17.3% of all state legislative seats) did not feature a Democratic candidate and were likely to be won by a Republican.
    • Republicans contested 82.4% of all state legislative seats. 1,032 seats (17.6% of all state legislative seats) did not feature a Republican candidate and were likely to be won by a Democrat.
    • In 11 states, more than half of all seats did not have major party competition.
    • In four states, more than 90% of all candidates had major party competition.


    The five states with the most major party competition in the general election were:

    1. Michigan
    2. Minnesota
    3. New Hampshire
    4. North Carolina
    5. Colorado


    The five states with the least major party competition in the general election were:

    44. Massachusetts
    43. Wyoming
    42. Rhode Island
    41. Oklahoma
    40. Arkansas


    Click [show] on the table below to see details of seats up for election without major party competition in each state.


    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows historical major party competition data for all even-year election cycles since 2010.

    A greater percentage of state legislative seats did not have major party competition in 2020 (34.9%) compared to 2018 (33.2%). Democrats and Republicans contested a nearly-equal number of seats, the closest since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2010, with a 13-seat difference between the two.

    The 2020 cycle was the first in a decade where Democrats contested fewer race and Republicans contested more. Democrats ran for 5% fewer seats this year than in 2018. Republicans ran for 3% more seats than in 2018.

    Reading the chart below, the red bar shows that Democrats did not field a candidate for 1,019 seats (17.3% of all seats). This means that Democrats ran for 4,856 seats (82.7%). The blue bar shows that Republicans did not field a candidate for 1,032 seats (17.6%), meaning Republicans ran for 4,843 seats (82.1%). The slight number discrepancy reflects the fact that four races (0.1%) had no major party competition, meaning a third party or independent candidate was guaranteed victory.


    Click [show] on the table header below for 2010-2020 major party competition data including percentages comparing the numbers seats with no major party competition to the total number of seats up for election, which, in 2020, was 5,875.


    To read more about seats without major party competition in 2020 state legislative elections, click here.

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The numbers reflected here are subject to change by the time of the general election. Additionally, Ballotpedia is currently conducting a decade-wide audit of all state legislative elections in order to standardized data from previous years.
    2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 In this analysis, a race without major party competition is defined as a race for an office where at no point in the election cycle a Republican appears on the ballot with a Democrat or vice versa. In most instances, this would be the general election ballot. In the case of top-two primary states, that primary would also be taken into consideration even if two candidates from the same party eventually advance to the general election. This definition differs from elsewhere on Ballotpedia and therefore numbers for this metric on other pages might not equal what is included here. Ballotpedia is in the process of updating competitiveness data from 2010 to 2020 and bringing this section in line with the definition used elsewhere will be part of that process.
    3. ↑ This number includes legislators who did not file for re-election or who filed to run for re-election but withdrew before the primary. This number does not includes legislators who advanced past the primary and then withdrew or otherwise did not appear on the general election ballot.
    4. ↑ Arizona utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 4 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    5. ↑ Arkansas utilizes term limits: 16 year cumulative total, in either chamber or both
    6. ↑ California utilizes term limits: 12 years cumulative total, in either chamber or both
    7. ↑ Colorado utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    8. ↑ Florida utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    9. ↑ Maine utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 4 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    10. ↑ In 2020, one seat in Maine was left open by a third party or independent candidate reflected in the totals shown here.
    11. ↑ Michigan utilizes term limits: 3 terms (6 years) in the House, 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    12. ↑ Missouri utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    13. ↑ Montana utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    14. ↑ Nebraska utilizes term limits: 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    15. ↑ In 2020, one seat in Nebraska was left open by a third party or independent candidate reflected in the totals shown here.
    16. ↑ Nevada utilizes term limits: 6 terms (12 years) in the House, 3 terms (12 years) in the Senate
    17. ↑ Ohio utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 2 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    18. ↑ Oklahoma utilizes term limits: 12 years cumulative total, in either chamber or both
    19. ↑ South Dakota utilizes term limits: 4 terms (8 years) in the House, 4 terms (8 years) in the Senate
    20. ↑ In 2020, three seats in Vermont were left open by third party or independent candidates reflected in the totals shown here.
    21. ↑ In 2020, one seat in West Virginia was left open by a third party or independent candidate reflected in the totals shown here.
    22. ↑ In 2020, six seats were left open by third party or independent candidates reflected in the totals shown here.
    23. ↑ This number includes any incumbent who filed to run for re-election in 2020 and remained filed at the time of the primary. This number does not include incumbents who filed to run for re-election but officially withdrew before the primary.
    24. ↑ Six states did not hold any regularly-scheduled state legislative elections in 2020. Those states were Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.
    25. ↑ One independent incumbent in the California Assembly had a primary challenge. That number is included in the total number of incumbents with primaries in both California and in the overall total.
    26. ↑ Six states did not hold any regularly-scheduled state legislative elections in 2020. Those states were Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.
    27. ↑ Nebraska has an officially nonpartisan Senate. The party data collected here came from Ballotpedia research into the party registration of candidates, endorsements from major political parties, and reports from local media.
    28. ↑ Total does not include the four seats where an independent or third party candidate faced no major party competition: Alaska (1), New Mexico (1), Vermont (2)
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