Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012
The Missouri gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, following a primary on August 7, 2012.
Jay Nixon (D)
Dave Spence (R)
Jim Higgins (L)
Incumbent Jay Nixon (D) won a second term as Governor of Missouri on November 6, 2012.[1]
Nixon won the August 7th Democratic primary election and defeated Republican Dave Spence and Libertarian Jim Higgins in the general election.[2]
Spence, a businessman from St. Louis, officially announced his candidacy on November 15, 2011. The move was a surprise to many Republicans, as Spence had previously said he would only run if current Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, believed to be the preferred GOP candidate, did not.[3] Three days after Spence's announcement, Kinder said he would not be seeking the nomination for governor, but would seek another term as lieutenant governor instead.[4] Spence went on to defeat Bill Randles, Fred Sauer and John Weiler in the Republican primary.[5]
In the months leading up to the general election, polls consistently showed Nixon leading by a comfortable margin over his Republican challenger, and campaign finance reports further indicated a likely victory for the incumbent. Despite his diminishing threat to Nixon's re-election, as of October, Spence's determination to unseat Nixon only intensified, with a stream of profile-raising TV spots and massive eleventh-hour donations from the Republican Governors Association to match Nixon's million dollar infusion from his party's counterpart organization.[6] According to campaign finance reports filed with the Missouri Ethics Commission, Spence threw an additional $500,000 of his own money into his campaign on October 24th, bringing his tab for the election cycle up to that point to a hefty $5 million.[7]
The negative advertising campaigns on both sides culminated on October 12th when Spence filed a defamation lawsuit against Nixon in Cole County Circuit Court for an advertisement claiming Spence used his position as a bank board member to arrange an "insider loan" of federal bailout money to buy a vacation home. Spence firmly denied any link between the loan and the $40 million in bailout money the bank received in 2009, before he joined the board, and said he was not present when the other board officials made their decision to approve the $1.1 million loan.[8]
Partly in reaction to the banker ads, Spence told the press days before filing suit that Nixon had "sold his soul to the devil" trying to win re-election.[8]
Nixon's campaign manager refused requests to take down the ad, where it was then airing in markets across Missouri. "You see a lot of crazy stunts during the course of a campaign, but this frivolous lawsuit is misguided and desperate," he said.[8]
Results
General Election
| Governor of Missouri General Election, 2012 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic |  Jay Nixon Incumbent |
54.8% | 1,494,056 | |
| Republican | Dave Spence | 42.5% | 1,160,265 | |
| Libertarian | Jim Higgins | 2.7% | 73,509 | |
| Total Votes | 2,727,830 | |||
| Election results via Missouri Secretary of State | ||||
Primary Election
| Missouri Governor Democratic Primary, 2012 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
| Jay Nixon Incumbent |
86% | 270,140 | ||
| William B. Campbell | 8.2% | 25,775 | ||
| Clay Thunderhawk | 5.8% | 18,243 | ||
| Total Votes | 314,158 | |||
| Election results via Missouri Secretary of State. | ||||
| Missouri Governor Republican Primary, 2012 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
| Dave Spence |
59.9% | 333,682 | ||
| Bill Randles | 16.3% | 90,686 | ||
| Fred Sauer | 15.1% | 84,019 | ||
| John D. Weiler | 8.8% | 49,019 | ||
| Total Votes | 557,406 | |||
| Election results via Missouri Secretary of State. | ||||
Background
Key Dates
| Deadline | Event |
|---|---|
| Feb. 28 - Mar. 27 | Primary election candidate filing period |
| July 11 | Voter registration for primary election |
| Aug. 7 | Primary election |
| July 17 - Aug. 21 | General election candidate filing period |
| Oct. 10 | Voter registration for general election |
| Nov. 6 | General election |
Race tracking
| 2012 Race Rankings - Missouri Governor | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race Tracker | Race Rating | |||
| The Cook Political Report[9] | Lean Democratic | |||
| Governing Politics[10] | Lean Democratic | |||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Likely Democrat | |||
| Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[12] | No prediction yet | |||
| The Rothenberg Political Report[13] | Lean Democrat | |||
| Overall Call | ||||
Race background
Early in 2011, it looked to be an uphill battle for Nixon in his bid. In March 2011, he received a 61 percent approval rating in a poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican consulting firm. The governor's "strong" approval rating, however, was 13 percent, the same as where Nixon tested in February 2009, according to Neil Newhouse, partner and co-founder of the polling firm. The score was "extremely low," Newhouse said. "Generally, an incumbent governor's 'strong' job approval score should be about half of his overall approval score, meaning that Nixon's should have been around 30 percent."[14]
Nixon continued to lead by 45 percent to 38 percent over Missouri Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R), who was expected to run against Nixon for the state's top political spot in 2012. Nixon had above average approval numbers, with 47 percent of voters happy with the job he was doing to 31 percent who disapproved, according to Public Policy Polling, which conducts polls mostly for Democrats. Nixon had almost as many Republicans -- 32 percent -- who approved of his performance as there were who were unhappy -- 40 percent -- according to the analysis by PPP. "It's rare to see any politician come that close to breaking even across party lines," PPP concluded.[15] While Nixon's fate appeared up in the air, his candidacy received a boost in November when Kinder, following a controversy where he was photographed with an ex-stripper in a bar, announced he would not be running.[16]
Candidates
General election
Jay Nixon (D)
Dave Spence (R)
Jim Higgins (L)
Primary election
Democratic primary candidates
- Jay Nixon (Incumbent)
- Clay Thunderhawk
- William Campbell
Republican primary candidates
- Dave Spence, a St. Louis businessman
- Bill Randles
- John Weiler
- Fred Sauer
Libertarian Party candidates
Withdrawn candidates
- Leonard Steinman (withdrew on April 27, 2012)[17]
Polls
General election
| Missouri Governor Race | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Jay Nixon (D) | Dave Spence (R) | Jim Higgins (L) **Poll#2,7 only** | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| Survey USA Poll (Oct. 28-Nov. 3, 2012) | 48% | 39% | 5% | 8% | +/-4.1 | 589 | |||||||||||||
| Kiley & Company Poll (October 24-26, 2012) | 55% | 33% | 0% | 12% | +/-3.5 | 600 | |||||||||||||
| Post-Dispatch/ Mason-Dixon poll (October 23-25, 2012) | 48% | 42% | 1% | 9% | +/-4.0 | 625 | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Poll (October 19-21, 2012) | 51% | 40% | 0% | 8% | +/-4.1 | 582 | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Poll (October 1-3, 2012) | 54% | 35% | 0% | 12% | +/-3.7 | 700 | |||||||||||||
| YouGov Poll (September 7-14, 2012) | 51% | 33% | 0% | 16% | +/-4.0 | 758 | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Poll (August 20-23, 2012) | 46% | 37% | 0% | 16% | +/-4.4 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| Survey USA Poll (August 12, 2012) | 51% | 37% | 5% | 6% | +/-4.1 | 585 | |||||||||||||
| Chilenski Strategies Poll (August 8, 2012) | 52.7% | 38.5% | 0% | 8.8% | +/-3.8 | 663 | |||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 50.74% | 37.17% | 1.22% | 10.64% | +/-3.97 | 622.44 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Primary election
Between May 24th and 27th, Public Policy Polling surveyed 430 Republican primary voters in Missouri. The respondents were give hypothetical match-ups between Jay Nixon and the two most popular Republican candidates, and asked which of the two candidates they would vote for.[18]
| Hypothetical match-ups for Governor of Missouri | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Randles | Dave Spence | ||||||||
| Percent of the vote | 32% | 34% | |||||||
| Jay Nixon's percent of the vote | 46% | 45% | |||||||
| Republican primary candidates | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Bill Randles | Fred Sauer | Dave Spence | John Weiler | Another candidate | Not sure/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling May 24-27, 2012 | 11% | 4% | 32% | 1% | 10% | 43% | +/-4.7 | 430 | |||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling* January 27-29, 2012 | 15% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 74% | +/-4.1 | 574 | |||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 13% | 8% | 16% | 0.5% | 5% | 58.5% | +/-4.4 | 502 | |||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
* The January poll was conducted before Missouri's candidate filing deadline (March 27th) and did not include Fred Sauer or John Weiler.
Campaign finance
Due dates for reports
The Missouri Ethics Commission administers campaign finance law and maintains all records online.
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For the primary election:
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For the general election:
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Candidates
Jay Nixon
| Jay Nixon Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[19] | April 16, 2012 | $8,150,553.85 | $1,713,610.88 | $(570,111.15) | $6,130,704.05 | ||||
| July Quarterly[20] | July 16, 2012 | $6,130,704.05 | $2,092,322.27 | $(585,637.26) | $7,603,044.49 | ||||
| Post-Primary | September 6, 2012 | $7,099,790.34 | $981,935.27 | $(1,728,436.78) | $6,304,788.83 | ||||
| General Election First Report[21] | October 15, 2012 | $6,304,788.83 | $704,979.31 | $(2,071,971.31) | $4,937,796.48 | ||||
| Pre-General[22] | October 29, 2012 | $4,937,796.48 | $1,425,717.60 | $(4,769,683.77) | $1,593,830.31 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $6,918,565.33 | $(9,725,840.27) | ||||||||
Dave Spence
| Dave Spence Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[23] | April 16, 2012 | $2,307,576.95 | $843,372.83 | $(1,362,318.80) | $1,744,137.88 | ||||
| July Quarterly[24] | July 16, 2012 | $1,744,137.88 | $1,027,706.49 | $(1,576,327.31) | $1,171,538.32 | ||||
| Post-Primary | September 7, 2012 | $244,993.14 | $1,537,700.00 | $(311,874.99) | $1,446,510.88 | ||||
| General Election First Report[25] | October 15, 2012 | $1,446,510.88 | $1,411,451.00 | $(1,341,522.53) | $1,516,439.35 | ||||
| Pre-General[26] | October 29, 2012 | $1,516,439.35 | $2,524,581.55 | $(3,755,204.39) | $285,816.51 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $7,344,811.87 | $(8,347,248.02) | ||||||||
Jim Higgins
| Jim Higgins Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| July Quarterly[27] | July 30, 2012 | $0.00 | $1,709.00 | $(1,144.00) | $565.00 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $1,709 | $(1,144) | ||||||||
Former candidates
Clay Thunderhawk
Thunderhawk did not file any campaign finance information by the April 16, 2012 quarterly deadline.[28]
William Campbell
William Campbell submitted a Statement of Exemption for the first filing deadline. To qualify for a waiver a candidate must not have:
- Received more than five hundred dollars in total contributions
- Made total expenditures of more than five hundred dollars[29]
Republican
John Weiler
John Weiler submitted a Statement of Exemption for the first filing deadline. To qualify for a waiver a candidate must not have:
- Received more than five hundred dollars in total contributions
- Made total expenditures of more than five hundred dollars[30]
For the second filing deadline, he submitted a limited activity report in which he certified "that neither the aggregate amount of contributions received nor the aggregate amount of expenditures made by the committee exceeded five hundred dollars."[31]
Bill Randles
| Bill Randles Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[32] | April 16, 2012 | $5,176.53 | $35,170.94 | $(34,982.71) | $5,364.76 | ||||
| July Quarterly[33] | July 16, 2012 | $5,364.76 | $49,395.14 | $(48,797.77) | $1,787.19 | ||||
| Post-Primary | September 7, 2012 | $13,079.89 | $15,360.33 | $(24,358.61) | $4,081.61 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $99,926.41 | $(108,139.09) | ||||||||
Fred Sauer
| Fred Sauer Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| July Quarterly[34] | July 16, 2012 | $0.00 | $230,940.61 | $(141,977.06) | $82,752.94 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $230,940.61 | $(141,977.06) | ||||||||
Sauer did not file any campaign finance information by the April 16, 2012 quarterly deadline.[35]
Libertarian
Jim Higgins
| Jim Higgins Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| July Quarterly[36] | July 11, 2012 | $0.00 | $1,709.00 | $(1,144.00) | $565.00 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $1,709 | $(1,144) | ||||||||
Higgins did not file any campaign finance information for the April 16, 2012 quarterly deadline or the 30 day post-primary report deadline.[37]
Leonard Steinman
Steinman did not file any campaign finance information during the 2012 election cycle.[38]
Endorsements
Democratic primary endorsements
Jay Nixon
- Missouri Corn Growers Association[39]
- The Kansas City Star[40]
- The Democratic Governors Assocation[6]
- Missouri Association of School Administrators[41]
- Mayor of Neosho Richard Davidson (R)[42]
Republican primary endorsements
Dave Spence
- The Kansas City Star[40]
- Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie[43]
- The Republican Governors Assocation[6]
- Missouri Corrections Officers Assocation[44]
- Missouri Chamber of Commerce PAC[44]
- Missouri Farm Bureau Farm PAC[44]
Campaign sites and media
Campaign sites
Nixon
Spence
Higgins
Former candidates
Campaign advertisements
Jay Nixon
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Dave Spence
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News
- Election aftermath: Two suspenseful races marked Missouri's state executive primaries August 8
- Election preview: Five state executive seats on tomorrow's primary ballot in Missouri August 6
- Election preview: Strong showing from third party candidates in Missouri's five executive races March 28
- Show Me the gubernatorial candidates! April 2
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Missouri Secretary of State, "November 6, 2012 General Election Results," accessed November 7, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Secretary of State, "Election Night Reporting: Unofficial primary results," accessed August 8, 2012
- ↑ St. Louis Post Dispatch, "David Spence to enter Republican primary for governor," November 16, 2011
- ↑ KY3, "Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder won't run for governor," November 18, 2011
- ↑ AP Election Results-Campaign 2012, "Missouri-Summary Vote Results," August 7, 2012
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 St Louis Post-Dispatch, "Missouri Republican Spence gets $950k from GOP governors group," October 9, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Dave Spence Pre-General Election Campaign Finance Report," accessed October 30, 2012
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 The Columbia Tribune, "Spence files defamation suit," October 13, 2012
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, “Governors: Race Ratings”
- ↑ Governing Politics, “Looking Ahead: The 2011-2012 Gubernatorial Landscape”, December 2, 2010
- ↑ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “2011 Governor Ratings”
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
- ↑ Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
- ↑ "Nixon may face tough re-election, pollster says," Missouri Watchdog, March 9, 2011
- ↑ "Nixon holds modest lead over Kinder, poll finds," Missouri Watchdog, March 11, 2011
- ↑ St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "Peter Kinder drops out of governor's race," November 19, 2011
- ↑ Missouri Secretary of State, "Certified candidate list," accessed June 29, 2012
- ↑ Public Policy Polling, "Nixon leads Spence, Randles by big but shrinking margins," May 31, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Jay Nixon: April Quarterly Report," April 16, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Jay Nixon: July Quarterly Report," July 16, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Jay Nixon Campaign Finance Reports," October 15, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Jay Nixon Campaign Finance Reports," accessed October 29, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission," Spence for Governor: Committee disclosure report," accessed April 19, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission," Spence for Governor: Committee disclosure report," July 16, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Dave Spence Campaign Finance Reports," October 15, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Dave Spence Campaign Finance Reports," accessed October 29, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission," Jim Higgins July Quarterly Report, accessed October 16 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Registered candidates and candidate committees," accessed April 19, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "William Campbell: Statement of Exemption, filed April 4, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "John Weiler: Statement of Exemption, filed April 6, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "John D Weiler Committee: July quarterly report - Limited activity," July 10, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Missourians for Randles: Committee disclosure report," accessed April 19, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Missourians for Randles: Committee disclosure report," July 16, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, Fred Sauer Governor: Committee disclosure report cover page," July 16, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Registered candidates and candidate committees," accessed April 19, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Jim Higgins for Governor: Committee disclosure report," July 11, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Registered candidates and candidate committees," accessed April 19, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Ethics Commission, "Registered candidates and candidate committees," accessed April 19, 2012
- ↑ The Republic.com, "Mo. corn growers endorse Democratic Gov. Nixon's re-election campaign," July 25, 2012
- ↑ 40.0 40.1 Kansas City Star, "The Star's recommendations: The top candidates for state offices in Missouri," July 27, 2012
- ↑ Missouri Association of School Administrators, "MASA Endorses Gov. Jay Nixon for Re-Election: Governor’s Experienced Leadership Strengthens Schools & Communities," October 6, 2012
- ↑ Four States Home Page, "Neosho Mayor Supports Nixon's Re-election," October 9, 2012 (dead link)
- ↑ KSPR.com, "GOP heavyweight Gov. Chris Christie stumps for Dave Spence," September 23, 2012
- ↑ 44.0 44.1 44.2 Official Campaign Website Press Release, "Missouri Corrections Officers Association Endorses Dave Spence for Governor"
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