The paper examines the role of jihadist thought and war theory on Hamas October 7, 2023, attacks.... more The paper examines the role of jihadist thought and war theory on Hamas October 7, 2023, attacks. It argues contrary to most view of Hamas, the organization's ideology and war doctrine has striking similarity to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. As such, defining the group as a purely nationalist jihadi network is misplaced.
The 2019 Easter Islamic State (IS) attacks on Sri Lankan churches is seen by the government as re... more The 2019 Easter Islamic State (IS) attacks on Sri Lankan churches is seen by the government as retribution for a white nationalist attack on Christchurch New Zealand mosques. This article analyses the synergy between white nationalist and jihadi violence. It examines the growth of the Western extremist right as a response to economic globalization and the cultural-religious transformation of European and North American society. In part right-wing terrorism is a response to past jihadi attacks in the West and radicalized minority sub-communities within Europe's large Muslim Diaspora population. Much like the left-right terrorist violence that convulsed Europe in the 1970's we may be facing a destabilizing future of revenge attacks by jihadists and their far-right antagonists that target religious institutions and celebrations. This process results in a synergistic level of violence in which Jews are at the greatest risk for attacks.
The essay presents this jihadi ideological evolution in four parts. Firstly, it provides an overv... more The essay presents this jihadi ideological evolution in four parts. Firstly, it provides an overview of jihadism"s three major adversaries the near (Muslim apostate), far (Western and other non-Muslim civilizations) and sectarian (Shi"ite and other heterodox Muslims) enemies. Secondly, the paper examines why jihadi groups prioritized attacks against the near enemy during the Cold War only to see most Islamist insurgencies beaten back by Muslim apostate regimes. Thirdly, the paper analyses how these failures invited debate within the jihadist movement leading to a refocus on fighting the non-Muslim far enemy. Fourthly, having failed to weaken near and far enemies, the paper argues that the global jihadi movement has radicalized further by resorting to conspiratorial and eschatological arguments that link near, far and sectarian enemies.
The article explores the radicalization of the Post 9-11 jihadist movement by comparing the far e... more The article explores the radicalization of the Post 9-11 jihadist movement by comparing the far enemy strategy of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Progressively the jihadist movement has pursued a total war strategy that fuses near, far and sectarian enemies. Unlike Al Qaeda the Islamic State has pursued a Eurocentric far enemy strategy driven by sectarian animus toward Europe's Christian and secular traditions
The article looks at American, Russian and Iranian use of hybrid warfare in Syria noting patters ... more The article looks at American, Russian and Iranian use of hybrid warfare in Syria noting patters of cooperation and conflict.
The paper looks at the Islamic States terror campaign in the West noting differences in terrorist... more The paper looks at the Islamic States terror campaign in the West noting differences in terrorist activity between Europe and North America.
The article examines the intersection of sectarian conflict and state failure in the Mideast and ... more The article examines the intersection of sectarian conflict and state failure in the Mideast and relates it to the radicalization of Sunni jihadist movements. These pressures have been building in the region for over a generation and can be seen being played out in Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
" Likewise we renew our call to the muwahhidin in Europe and the disbelieving West and elsewhere,... more " Likewise we renew our call to the muwahhidin in Europe and the disbelieving West and elsewhere, to target the crusaders in their own lands and wherever they are found. We will argue before Allah against any Muslim who has the ability to shed a single drop of crusader blood but does not do so, whether with an explosive device, a bullet, a knife, a car, a rock, or even a boot or a fist. " 1 Late IS Spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani " .
This paper looks at the failings of the current anti-ISIS war strategy and its dysfunctional coal... more This paper looks at the failings of the current anti-ISIS war strategy and its dysfunctional coalitional and containment strategy. It then proceeds to analyze the strategic vulnerabilities of ISIS caliphate and develops a war strategy to exploit these weaknesses.
The paper is a comparative analysis of the Islamic State and its Sudanese Mahdiyyah predecessor. ... more The paper is a comparative analysis of the Islamic State and its Sudanese Mahdiyyah predecessor. It looks at these two millenarian movements comparing their position with the Sunni apocalyptic tradition, their respective world views and whether Britain's defeat of the Mahdiyyah in the 19th century offers a path of how to deal with the Islamic State
Attached is an overview of the key graduate programs associated with the work of ASU's Department... more Attached is an overview of the key graduate programs associated with the work of ASU's Department of Security Studies and Criminal Justice Program including areas in security studies, border security, criminal justice and intelligence analysis. I work in the Mideast and terrorism areas of the security studies program.
The paper looks at ISIS campaigns in Egypt and Libya and the evolution of the caliphate's wilayat... more The paper looks at ISIS campaigns in Egypt and Libya and the evolution of the caliphate's wilayat or provinces policy. It argues that both countries offer IS opportunities for expansion, but the growth of IS' Egyptian and Libyan wilayats is likely to be limited by multiple adversaries. Ultimately the success of IS's wilayat policy is dependent upon its Iraqi-Syrian base to withstand the international military campaign aimed at degrading and destroying its organization,
Based on Jeffery Kaplan's theory of fifth wave terrorism, the essay applies the theory to Boko Ha... more Based on Jeffery Kaplan's theory of fifth wave terrorism, the essay applies the theory to Boko Haram and the Islamic State and argues that some Islamist especially takfirist groups do have fifth wave tendencies.
The paper presents this jihadi ideological evolution in four parts. Firstly, it provides an overv... more The paper presents this jihadi ideological evolution in four parts. Firstly, it provides an overview of jihadism’s three major adversaries the near (Muslim apostate), far (Western and other non-Muslim civilizations) and sectarian (Shi’ite and other heterodox Muslims) enemies. Secondly, the paper examines why jihadi groups prioritized attacks against the near enemy during the Cold War only to see most Islamist insurgencies beaten back by Muslim apostate regimes. Thirdly, the paper analyses how these failures invited debate within the jihadist movement leading to a refocus on fighting the non-Muslim far enemy. Fourthly, having failed to weaken near and far enemies, the paper argues that the global jihadi movement has radicalized further by resorting to conspiratorial and eschatological arguments that link near, far and sectarian enemies.
The paper argues that the Media's emphasis on U.S. President Donald Trump's language to explain t... more The paper argues that the Media's emphasis on U.S. President Donald Trump's language to explain the upsurge in white nationalist violence is simplistic and misleading. Instead, the rise in right wing violent extremism has been building for over a generation and is a anti-globalization reactionary movement hostile to the vast changes in the West's economy and social structure. It is also a response to jihadist violence in the West and the radicalization of minority sub-populations in Muslim Diaspora populations living the West. Today we run the risk of Islamist and right wing revenge attacks that could set off a new wave of terrorism in the West.
The essay explores the connections between extremism, failure and resilience in three sections. F... more The essay explores the connections between extremism, failure and resilience in three sections. First, it examines the forces that lead to jihadist failure and resilience. Second, it employs case studies linking failure and resilience to regenerative waves of jihadi violence. Third, it argues that when jihadists form a nascent state its extremism often invites destructive external intervention. It concludes that takfirism and extremist violence paradoxically generate destructive and regenerative forces.
This paper examines jihadism’s radicalized evolution in three stages. First, it discusses its tak... more This paper examines jihadism’s radicalized evolution in three stages. First, it discusses its takfirist political and religious foundations. Second, it analyses specific intra-jihadi debates that propelled more extremist visions. Third, it examines the social and political forces contributing to this ideological trajectory. The essay concludes the Islamic State’s takfirist, apocalyptic vision and caliphate centric strategy reflects these trends.
The paper examines the role of jihadist thought and war theory on Hamas October 7, 2023, attacks.... more The paper examines the role of jihadist thought and war theory on Hamas October 7, 2023, attacks. It argues contrary to most view of Hamas, the organization's ideology and war doctrine has striking similarity to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. As such, defining the group as a purely nationalist jihadi network is misplaced.
The 2019 Easter Islamic State (IS) attacks on Sri Lankan churches is seen by the government as re... more The 2019 Easter Islamic State (IS) attacks on Sri Lankan churches is seen by the government as retribution for a white nationalist attack on Christchurch New Zealand mosques. This article analyses the synergy between white nationalist and jihadi violence. It examines the growth of the Western extremist right as a response to economic globalization and the cultural-religious transformation of European and North American society. In part right-wing terrorism is a response to past jihadi attacks in the West and radicalized minority sub-communities within Europe's large Muslim Diaspora population. Much like the left-right terrorist violence that convulsed Europe in the 1970's we may be facing a destabilizing future of revenge attacks by jihadists and their far-right antagonists that target religious institutions and celebrations. This process results in a synergistic level of violence in which Jews are at the greatest risk for attacks.
The essay presents this jihadi ideological evolution in four parts. Firstly, it provides an overv... more The essay presents this jihadi ideological evolution in four parts. Firstly, it provides an overview of jihadism"s three major adversaries the near (Muslim apostate), far (Western and other non-Muslim civilizations) and sectarian (Shi"ite and other heterodox Muslims) enemies. Secondly, the paper examines why jihadi groups prioritized attacks against the near enemy during the Cold War only to see most Islamist insurgencies beaten back by Muslim apostate regimes. Thirdly, the paper analyses how these failures invited debate within the jihadist movement leading to a refocus on fighting the non-Muslim far enemy. Fourthly, having failed to weaken near and far enemies, the paper argues that the global jihadi movement has radicalized further by resorting to conspiratorial and eschatological arguments that link near, far and sectarian enemies.
The article explores the radicalization of the Post 9-11 jihadist movement by comparing the far e... more The article explores the radicalization of the Post 9-11 jihadist movement by comparing the far enemy strategy of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Progressively the jihadist movement has pursued a total war strategy that fuses near, far and sectarian enemies. Unlike Al Qaeda the Islamic State has pursued a Eurocentric far enemy strategy driven by sectarian animus toward Europe's Christian and secular traditions
The article looks at American, Russian and Iranian use of hybrid warfare in Syria noting patters ... more The article looks at American, Russian and Iranian use of hybrid warfare in Syria noting patters of cooperation and conflict.
The paper looks at the Islamic States terror campaign in the West noting differences in terrorist... more The paper looks at the Islamic States terror campaign in the West noting differences in terrorist activity between Europe and North America.
The article examines the intersection of sectarian conflict and state failure in the Mideast and ... more The article examines the intersection of sectarian conflict and state failure in the Mideast and relates it to the radicalization of Sunni jihadist movements. These pressures have been building in the region for over a generation and can be seen being played out in Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
" Likewise we renew our call to the muwahhidin in Europe and the disbelieving West and elsewhere,... more " Likewise we renew our call to the muwahhidin in Europe and the disbelieving West and elsewhere, to target the crusaders in their own lands and wherever they are found. We will argue before Allah against any Muslim who has the ability to shed a single drop of crusader blood but does not do so, whether with an explosive device, a bullet, a knife, a car, a rock, or even a boot or a fist. " 1 Late IS Spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani " .
This paper looks at the failings of the current anti-ISIS war strategy and its dysfunctional coal... more This paper looks at the failings of the current anti-ISIS war strategy and its dysfunctional coalitional and containment strategy. It then proceeds to analyze the strategic vulnerabilities of ISIS caliphate and develops a war strategy to exploit these weaknesses.
The paper is a comparative analysis of the Islamic State and its Sudanese Mahdiyyah predecessor. ... more The paper is a comparative analysis of the Islamic State and its Sudanese Mahdiyyah predecessor. It looks at these two millenarian movements comparing their position with the Sunni apocalyptic tradition, their respective world views and whether Britain's defeat of the Mahdiyyah in the 19th century offers a path of how to deal with the Islamic State
Attached is an overview of the key graduate programs associated with the work of ASU's Department... more Attached is an overview of the key graduate programs associated with the work of ASU's Department of Security Studies and Criminal Justice Program including areas in security studies, border security, criminal justice and intelligence analysis. I work in the Mideast and terrorism areas of the security studies program.
The paper looks at ISIS campaigns in Egypt and Libya and the evolution of the caliphate's wilayat... more The paper looks at ISIS campaigns in Egypt and Libya and the evolution of the caliphate's wilayat or provinces policy. It argues that both countries offer IS opportunities for expansion, but the growth of IS' Egyptian and Libyan wilayats is likely to be limited by multiple adversaries. Ultimately the success of IS's wilayat policy is dependent upon its Iraqi-Syrian base to withstand the international military campaign aimed at degrading and destroying its organization,
Based on Jeffery Kaplan's theory of fifth wave terrorism, the essay applies the theory to Boko Ha... more Based on Jeffery Kaplan's theory of fifth wave terrorism, the essay applies the theory to Boko Haram and the Islamic State and argues that some Islamist especially takfirist groups do have fifth wave tendencies.
The paper presents this jihadi ideological evolution in four parts. Firstly, it provides an overv... more The paper presents this jihadi ideological evolution in four parts. Firstly, it provides an overview of jihadism’s three major adversaries the near (Muslim apostate), far (Western and other non-Muslim civilizations) and sectarian (Shi’ite and other heterodox Muslims) enemies. Secondly, the paper examines why jihadi groups prioritized attacks against the near enemy during the Cold War only to see most Islamist insurgencies beaten back by Muslim apostate regimes. Thirdly, the paper analyses how these failures invited debate within the jihadist movement leading to a refocus on fighting the non-Muslim far enemy. Fourthly, having failed to weaken near and far enemies, the paper argues that the global jihadi movement has radicalized further by resorting to conspiratorial and eschatological arguments that link near, far and sectarian enemies.
The paper argues that the Media's emphasis on U.S. President Donald Trump's language to explain t... more The paper argues that the Media's emphasis on U.S. President Donald Trump's language to explain the upsurge in white nationalist violence is simplistic and misleading. Instead, the rise in right wing violent extremism has been building for over a generation and is a anti-globalization reactionary movement hostile to the vast changes in the West's economy and social structure. It is also a response to jihadist violence in the West and the radicalization of minority sub-populations in Muslim Diaspora populations living the West. Today we run the risk of Islamist and right wing revenge attacks that could set off a new wave of terrorism in the West.
The essay explores the connections between extremism, failure and resilience in three sections. F... more The essay explores the connections between extremism, failure and resilience in three sections. First, it examines the forces that lead to jihadist failure and resilience. Second, it employs case studies linking failure and resilience to regenerative waves of jihadi violence. Third, it argues that when jihadists form a nascent state its extremism often invites destructive external intervention. It concludes that takfirism and extremist violence paradoxically generate destructive and regenerative forces.
This paper examines jihadism’s radicalized evolution in three stages. First, it discusses its tak... more This paper examines jihadism’s radicalized evolution in three stages. First, it discusses its takfirist political and religious foundations. Second, it analyses specific intra-jihadi debates that propelled more extremist visions. Third, it examines the social and political forces contributing to this ideological trajectory. The essay concludes the Islamic State’s takfirist, apocalyptic vision and caliphate centric strategy reflects these trends.
The book examines the emergence of the Islamic State within the context of past jihadist insurgen... more The book examines the emergence of the Islamic State within the context of past jihadist insurgencies. It argues that failed Islamist revolts against the apostate near enemy has led to more brutal jihadist tactics and doctrines that have culminated in the rise and fall of the Islamic State. Given past trends the development of an even more brutal jihadist movement is likely.
Uploads
Papers by Anthony Celso
Drafts by Anthony Celso