Crunch time in the Ladies’ Singles
Both Men’s and Ladies’ Singles competitions are down to the final four at Wimbledon 2024, and so crunch time has arrived. In the first of the men’s semifinals – both of which take place on Centre Court on Friday – last year’s winner, Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz takes on Russia’s Daniil Medvedev, and in the second semi, Lorenzo Musetti meets Novak Djokovic.
the semifinals take place on Centre Court on Thursday afternoon for the women
Both of the semifinals take place on Centre Court on Thursday afternoon for the women. First up, Croatia’s Donna Vekic plays Italy’s Jasmine Paolini, and in the second semifinal, Barbora Krejcikova of the Czech Republic plays Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan.
Below we preview the ladies’ semifinals and examine the potential for some value bets.
Semi-final 1: Donna Vekic (unseeded) v Jasmine Paolini (7)
Paolini has been one of the success stories of this Wimbledon and the smiling Italian is -190 favorite to beat her Croatian opponent who is a +150 outsider. But is the plus-money outsider worth a bet?
To start with, the fact she is unseeded is no barrier to winning the tournament as we discovered last year. In lifting the famous Venus Rosewater Dish in 2023, Czech Marketa Vondrousova became the first unseeded ladies’ champion in Wimbledon history, so Vekic need look no further for inspiration.
Vekic will also take inspiration from a thrilling quarterfinal win over qualifier Lulu Sun under the closed roof of No. 1 Court. After making a slow start and losing the first set, the 28-year-old Croatian settled in the second and won it 6-4 off the back of a single break. And she was able to take the momentum from winning the second set into the third and, thanks to a double break, sealed a 5-7 6-4 6-1 victory. So, while Paolini starts favorite, this is by no means a foregone conclusion.
established her place in the world group of elite players
But Paolini will be a tough opponent after having had the summer of her life. Only a few weeks ago, she appeared in her first-ever Grand Slam final when, on her favored clay, she made it to the final of the French Open at Roland-Garros. Despite losing 6-2, 6-1 to Poland’s Iga Swiatek it established her place in the world group of elite players and she has been able to bring that same positive energy to Wimbledon.
Despite never before winning a game on the grass of Wimbledon, the Italian arrived in SW19 with confidence, which has proved to be justified. Playing in her usual energetic style, Paolini has reeled off five consecutive victories, the latest being a comfortable 6-2, 6-1 quarterfinal win over the US’s Emma Navarro under the closed roof of Centre Court. She is the first Italian woman to reach the Wimbledon semi-finals.
PICK: Paolini to win (-190)
Semi-final 2: Barbora Krejcikova (31) v Elena Rybakina (4)
Despite being seeded 31, Barbora Krejcikova has never lost to Elena Rybakina but still starts as a +350 outsider. Rybakina is the massive -450 favorite.
Both players successfully negotiated their quarterfinal ties in straight sets. Rybakina eased past two-time semi-finalist Elina Svitolina 6-3 6-2 while Krejcikova, in a titanic clash between two former French Open champions, beat Latvia’s Jelena Ostapenko 6-4 7-6.
Worth noting is that prior to Krejcikova’s straight sets win over Ostapenko, the Latvian had gone through five rounds at this year’s Wimbledon without dropping a single set and had a 5-2 lead in their previous seven meetings. That win says a lot about the form Krejcikova is in right now.
For much of her career, Krejcikova was seen as a doubles specialist – she is a ten-time Grand Slam doubles champion – but the 28-year-old has successfully transferred those skills to the singles court and won the French Open in 2021. While she is seen as the outsider here, she is capable of winning.
But in Rybakina, she comes up against a Wimbledon specialist. Despite winning just one title in SW19, in 2022, the Kazak has proven herself to be a consistent performer in this tournament, even when she has struggled for form on other surfaces.
comfortably lived up to her No. 4 seeding
Rybakina, who was a quarter-finalist last year, had won 14 out of her 16 Wimbledon matches coming into this tournament, but that record now reads 19 wins from 21. She has comfortably lived up to her No. 4 seeding and, in what was expected to be a tough quarterfinal, she comfortably dispatched her Ukrainian opponent in two sets.
But her losing record against Krejcikova makes this a fascinating contest and a much more even one than the odds suggest. Much will depend on which player can handle the occasion and who can settle into their rhythm first. Don’t be surprised if this one goes to three sets.
PICK: Krejcikova to win (+350)