The data provided in this paper can be used as input data to develop an energy system model for Colombia. As an illustration, these data were used to develop an energy system model using the cost-optimization tool OSeMOSYS for the period 2015-2050. For reference, that model is described in Appendix A and its datafiles are available as Supplementary Materials. Appendix figure A3 for Colombia is repeated below. This is purely illustrative. It shows a zero-order model of the production of electricity by technology over the period 2020 to 2050 for a least cost energy future. Using the data described in this article, the analyst can reproduce this, as well as many other scenarios, such as net-zero by 2050, in a variety of energy planning toolkits.
The data provided were collected from publicly available sources, including the reports of international organizations, journal articles and existing model databases. The dataset includes the techno-economic parameters of supply-side technologies, installed capacities, emissions factors and final electricity demands. Below shows the different items and their description, in order of appearance, presented in this article.
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Item
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Description of Content
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Table 1
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A table showing the estimated installed capacity of different power plant types in Colombia for 2015-2018
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Table 2
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A table showing techno-economic parameters for electricity generation technologies
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Table 3
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A table showing capital cost projections for renewable energy technologies up to 2050
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Figure 2
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A graph showing capital cost projections for renewable energy technologies from 2015-2050
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Table 4
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A table showing cost and performance parameters for power transmission and distribution technologies
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Table 5
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A table showing cost and performance data for refinery technologies
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Table 6
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A table showing fuel price projections up to 2050
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Figure 3
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A graph showing fuel price projections from 2015-2050
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Table 7
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A table showing carbon dioxide emissions factors by fuel
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Table 8
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A table showing estimated renewable energy potential in Colombia
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Table 9
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A table showing estimated fossil fuel reserves in Colombia
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Figure 4
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A graph showing a final electricity demand projection for Colombia from 2015-2050
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1.1 Existing Electricity Supply System
The total power generation capacity in Colombia is estimated at 15881.81 MW in 2018 [3,4,5,6]. The estimated existing power generation capacity is detailed in Table 1 below [3,4,5,6]. The methods used to calculate these estimates are described in more detail in Section 2.1.
Table 1: Installed Power Plants Capacity in Colombia [3,4,5,6]
|
Electricity Generation Technology
|
Estimated Installed Capacity (MW)
|
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
|
Biomass Power Plant
|
240.0
|
240.0
|
240.0
|
240.0
|
|
Coal Power Plant
|
1121.9
|
1121.9
|
775.9
|
775.9
|
|
Oil Fired Gas Turbine (SCGT)
|
188.0
|
188.0
|
188.0
|
188.0
|
|
Gas Power Plant (CCGT)
|
3151.06
|
3151.06
|
3151.06
|
3151.06
|
|
Large Hydropower Plant (Dam) (>100MW)
|
11434.0
|
11434.0
|
11434.0
|
11434.0
|
|
Medium Hydropower Plant (10-100MW)
|
66.0
|
66.0
|
66.0
|
66.0
|
|
Onshore Wind
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
|
Off-grid Solar PV
|
1.46
|
1.52
|
1.52
|
1.53
|
|
Off-grid Hydropower
|
0.32
|
0.32
|
5.32
|
5.32
|
|
Total Capacity
|
16222.74
|
16222.8
|
15881.8
|
15881.81
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1.2 Techno-economic Data for Electricity Generation Technologies
The techno-economic parameters of electricity generation technologies are presented in Table 2, including costs, operational lives, efficiencies and average capacity factors. Cost (capital and fixed), operational life and efficiency data are based on the data used in the South America Model Base [7] and are applicable to South America. Projected cost reductions for renewable energy technologies were estimated by applying the cost reduction trends from a 2021 IRENA report focussing on Africa [8] to these South America-specific current cost estimates. These projections are presented in Table 3. Where technologies were not included in SAMBA, namely diesel generation technologies, medium hydropower plants and decentralised solar PV with storage, costs were estimated based on values from other reports by the IRENA [8,9]. The cost and performance of parameters of fossil electricity generation technologies are assumed constant over the modelling period. Country-specific capacity factors for solar PV, wind and hydropower technologies in Colombia were sourced from Renewables Ninja and the PLEXOS-World 2015 Model Dataset [3,10,11], as well as an NREL dataset [12]. Capacity factors for other technologies were sourced from SAMBA [7] and are applicable to South America. Average capacity factors were calculated for each technology and presented in the table below, with daytime (6am - 6pm) averages presented for solar PV technologies. For more information on the capacity factor data, refer to Section 2.1.
Table 2: Techno-economic parameters of electricity generation technologies [3,7,8,9,10,11,12]
|
Technology
|
Capital Cost ($/kW in 2020)
|
Fixed Cost ($/kW/yr in 2020)
|
Operational Life (years)
|
Efficiency
|
Average Capacity Factor
|
|
Biomass Power Plant
|
1905.0
|
13.0
|
25
|
0.35
|
0.66
|
|
Coal Power Plant
|
2500.0
|
40.0
|
40
|
0.43
|
0.85
|
|
Geothermal Power Plant
|
3796.47
|
100.0
|
20
|
0.11
|
0.85
|
|
Light Fuel Oil Power Plant
|
1200.0
|
15.0
|
25
|
0.35
|
0.85
|
|
Oil Fired Gas Turbine (SCGT)
|
1400.0
|
25.0
|
25
|
0.35
|
0.85
|
|
Gas Power Plant (CCGT)
|
1260.0
|
20.0
|
30
|
0.57
|
0.85
|
|
Gas Power Plant (SCGT)
|
583.0
|
10.0
|
30
|
0.38
|
0.85
|
|
Solar PV (Utility)
|
1791.02
|
23.28
|
25
|
1.0
|
0.24
|
|
CSP with Storage
|
5797.0
|
57.97
|
40
|
0.35
|
0.4
|
|
Large Hydropower Plant (Dam) (>100MW)
|
2939.0
|
88.17
|
60
|
1.0
|
0.5
|
|
Medium Hydropower Plant (10-100MW)
|
2500.0
|
75.0
|
60
|
1.0
|
0.5
|
|
Small Hydropower Plant (<10MW)
|
3499.0
|
104.97
|
60
|
1.0
|
0.5
|
|
Onshore Wind
|
1582.33
|
63.29
|
30
|
1.0
|
0.41
|
|
Offshore Wind
|
3928.19
|
157.13
|
25
|
1.0
|
0.27
|
|
Nuclear Power Plant
|
6318.0
|
189.54
|
40
|
0.35
|
0.85
|
|
Light Fuel Oil Standalone Generator (1kW)
|
750.0
|
23.0
|
20
|
0.42
|
0.4
|
|
Solar PV (Distributed with Storage)
|
4320.0
|
86.4
|
24
|
1.0
|
0.24
|
Table 3: Projected costs of renewable energy technologies for selected years to 2050. [7,8,9]
|
Renewable Energy Technology
|
Capital Cost ($/kW)
|
|
2015
|
2020
|
2025
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|
Biomass Power Plant
|
1905.0
|
1905.0
|
1905.0
|
1905.0
|
1905.0
|
1905.0
|
|
Solar PV (Utility)
|
1898.79
|
1791.02
|
1683.26
|
1575.49
|
1359.96
|
1144.43
|
|
CSP with Storage
|
8652.93
|
5797.0
|
4670.0
|
3763.0
|
3660.0
|
3660.0
|
|
Large Hydropower Plant (Dam) (>100MW)
|
2939.0
|
2939.0
|
2939.0
|
2939.0
|
2939.0
|
2939.0
|
|
Medium Hydropower Plant (10-100MW)
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
2500.0
|
|
Small Hydropower Plant (<10MW)
|
3499.0
|
3499.0
|
3499.0
|
3499.0
|
3499.0
|
3499.0
|
|
Onshore Wind
|
1620.0
|
1582.33
|
1544.65
|
1506.98
|
1431.63
|
1356.28
|
|
Offshore Wind
|
4104.0
|
3928.19
|
3752.37
|
3576.56
|
3224.93
|
2873.3
|
|
Solar PV (Distributed with Storage)
|
6840.0
|
4320.0
|
3415.0
|
2700.0
|
2091.0
|
2091.0
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1.3 Techno-economic Data for Power Transmission and Distribution
The efficiency of power transmission and distribution were taken from the SAMBA dataset [7], which gives estimated efficiencies by country, including projected efficiencies to 2063. The efficiencies of transmission and distribution in Colombia are therefore assumed to reach 96.0% and 94.0% in 2030 and 96.0% and 96.0% in 2050 respectively. The costs and operational life of transmission and distribution technologies were also taken from SAMBA, which gives estimates relevant to South America, including future projections.
Table 4: Techno-economic parameters for transmission and distribution [7]
|
Technology
|
Capital Cost ($/kW in 2020)
|
Operational Life (years)
|
Efficiency (2020)
|
Efficiency (2030)
|
Efficiency (2050)
|
|
Electricity Transmission
|
746
|
60
|
0.95
|
0.96
|
0.96
|
|
Electricity Distribution
|
1491
|
60
|
0.93
|
0.94
|
0.96
|
1.4 Techno-economic Data for Refineries
Colombia has an estimated 403kb/d domestic refinery capacity [13]. In the OSeMOSYS model, two oil refinery technologies were made available for investment in the future, each with different output activity ratios for Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and Light Fuel Oil (LFO). The technoeconomic data for these technologies are shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Techno-economic parameters for refinery technologies [13,14]
|
Technology
|
Capital Cost ($/PJ in 2020)
|
Variable Cost ($/GJ in 2020)
|
Operational Life (years)
|
Output Ratio
|
|
Crude Oil Refinery Option 1
|
24.1
|
0.71775
|
35
|
0.9 LFO : 0.1 HFO
|
|
Crude Oil Refinery Option 2
|
24.1
|
0.71775
|
35
|
0.8 LFO : 0.2 HFO
|
1.5 Fuel Prices
Assumed costs are provided for both imported and domestically-extracted fuels. The fuel price projections until 2050 are presented below. These are estimates based on an international oil price forecast [15] for oil and oil products, the SAMBA dataset [7] for natural gas, and a report on international biomass markets [16]. More detail is provided in Section 2.2.
Table 6: Fuel price projections to 2050 [7,15,16]
|
Commodity
|
Fuel Price ($/GJ)
|
|
2015
|
2020
|
2025
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|
Crude Oil Imports
|
13.14
|
12.2
|
12.76
|
14.27
|
16.9
|
19.52
|
|
Crude Oil Extraction
|
11.95
|
11.09
|
11.6
|
12.97
|
15.36
|
17.75
|
|
Biomass Imports
|
6.16
|
6.16
|
6.16
|
6.16
|
6.16
|
6.16
|
|
Biomass Extraction
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
|
Coal Imports
|
3.2
|
3.55
|
3.64
|
3.73
|
3.9
|
4.26
|
|
Coal Extraction
|
2.91
|
3.23
|
3.31
|
3.39
|
3.55
|
3.87
|
|
Light Fuel Oil Imports
|
15.89
|
14.75
|
15.43
|
17.25
|
20.43
|
23.61
|
|
Heavy Fuel Oil Imports
|
9.56
|
8.87
|
9.28
|
10.38
|
12.29
|
14.2
|
|
Natural Gas Imports
|
3.76
|
4.65
|
5.54
|
6.43
|
8.22
|
10.01
|
|
Natural Gas Extraction
|
3.41
|
4.22
|
5.04
|
5.85
|
7.48
|
9.1
|
1.6 Emission Factors
Fossil fuel technologies emit several greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides throughout their operational lifetime. In this analysis, only carbon dioxide emissions are considered. These are accounted for using carbon dioxide emission factors assigned to each fuel, rather than each power generation technology. The assumed emission factors are presented in Table 7.
Table 7: Fuel-specific CO2 Emission Factors [17]
|
Fuel
|
CO2 Emission Factor (kg CO2/GJ)
|
|
Crude oil
|
73.3
|
|
Biomass
|
100
|
|
Coal
|
94.6
|
|
Light Fuel Oil
|
69.3
|
|
Heavy Fuel Oil
|
77.4
|
|
Natural Gas
|
56.1
|
1.7 Renewable and Fossil Fuel Reserves
Tables 8 and 9 show estimated domestic renewable energy potentials and fossil fuel reserves respectively in Colombia.
Table 8: Estimated Renewable Energy Potentials [12,18,19,20]
|
|
Unit
|
Estimated Renewable Energy Potential
|
|
Solar Resource
|
TWh/yr
|
2888
|
|
Onshore Wind
|
TWh/yr
|
1496.16
|
|
Offshore Wind
|
TWh/yr
|
537.6
|
|
Medium & Large Hydropower
|
MW
|
68000
|
|
Small Hydropower (<10 MW)
|
MW
|
25000
|
|
Geothermal
|
MW
|
2210
|
Table 9: Estimated Fossil Fuel Reserves [7,21]
|
|
Proven Reserves
|
|
Coal (million tonnes)
|
7400.0
|
|
Crude Oil (billion barrels)
|
2.4
|
|
Natural Gas (trillion cubic metres)
|
3.7
|
1.8 Electricity Demand Projection
An electricity demand projection was calculated based on the Current Policy Scenario regional demand projections of the OLADE Energy Outlook 2019 [22], which were divided by country based on historic consumption data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) [23]. Final electricity demand in Colombia was estimated at 216.65PJ in 2016 and is forecasted to reach 375.39PJ by 2030 and 665.92PJ by 2050. For more information on the final electricity demand projection, see section 2. Figure 4 below shows the final electricity demand projection.