Bullets and Votes: Violence and Electoral Participation in Mexico

Kugeln und Wahlen: Gewalt und Wahlbeteiligung in Mexiko
Balas y votos: Violencia y participación electoral en México
[journal article]

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the effect of criminal violence on electoral participation in Mexico. Many scholars have studied the origins of criminal violence, as well as the success or failure of contemporary regimes in dealing with it. However, few have studied how it affects vote... view more

In this paper we analyze the effect of criminal violence on electoral participation in Mexico. Many scholars have studied the origins of criminal violence, as well as the success or failure of contemporary regimes in dealing with it. However, few have studied how it affects voter turnout. Following recent findings in the behavioral subfield, we hypothesize that as criminal violence increases, citizens abandon public channels of participation and take refuge in their private spheres. Using longitudinal and geostatistical tools to analyze Mexican municipalities in the last decade, we find that the level of electoral turnout is lower in the most violent regions of the country. In the final section, we use survey data to confirm that citizens exposed to high levels of criminal violence are less likely to vote.... view less

En este artículo, analizamos el efecto de la violencia criminal sobre la participación electoral en México. Muchos investigadores estudiaron las causas de la violencia criminal y la respuesta de los diferentes gobiernos frente a este problema. Sin embargo, pocos estudios analiza... view more

En este artículo, analizamos el efecto de la violencia criminal sobre la participación electoral en México. Muchos investigadores estudiaron las causas de la violencia criminal y la respuesta de los diferentes gobiernos frente a este problema. Sin embargo, pocos estudios analizan el impacto de la violencia criminal sobre la participación en las elecciones. Siguiendo algunos hallazgos recientes en la literatura de comportamiento político, argumentamos que cuando la violencia criminal aumenta, los ciudadanos abandonan espacios públicos de participación y se refugian en la esfera privada. Usando métodos geoestadísticos para analizar las municipalidades en México en la ultima década, demostramos que la participación electoral es más baja en las regiones más violentas del país. En la última sección, usamos datos de una encuesta reciente para confirmar que ciudadanos expuestos a niveles altos de criminalidad tienen menos probabilidades de votar.... view less

Keywords
voter turnout; crime fighting; Latin America; anxiety; criminality; historical development; Central America; Mexico; confidence; homicide; election; violence; politics; drug-related crime; developing country

Classification
General History
Social Problems

Method
theory application; applied research; empirical; quantitative empirical; historical

Document language
English

Publication Year
2012

Page/Pages
p. 89-123

Journal
Journal of Politics in Latin America, 4 (2012) 2

ISSN
1868-4890

Status
Published Version; peer reviewed

Licence
Creative Commons - Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works