Search Results (293)

The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate 2 (COSMIC-2) collects data covering latitudes primarily between 40 degrees north and south, providing abundant data for tropical cyclone (TC) research. The radio occultation data provide valuable information on the boundary layer. However, quality control of the data within the boundary layer remains a challenging issue. The aim of this study is to obtain a more accurate COSMIC-2 radio occultation (RO) dataset through quality control (QC) and use this dataset to validate warm core structures and explore the planetary boundary layer (PBL) structures of TCs. In this study, COSMIC-2 data are used to analyze the distribution of the relative local spectral width (LSW) and the confidence parameter characterizing the random error of the bending angle. An LSW less than 20% is set as a data QC threshold, and the warm core and PBL composite structures of TCs at three intensities in the Northwest Pacific Ocean are investigated. We reproduce the warm core intensity and warm core height characteristics of TCs. In the radial direction of the typhoon eyewall, the impact height of the PBL increases from 3.45 km to 4 km, with the tropopause ranging from 160 hPa to 100 hPa. At the bottom of the troposphere, the variations in the positive and negative bias between the RO-detected and background field bending angles correspond well to the PBL heights, and the variations in the positive bias between the RO-detected and background field refractivity reach 14%. This research provides an effective QC method and reveals that the bending angle is sensitive to the PBL height. Full article

Surface air temperature (SAT) variability is investigated for advancing our understanding of the climate patterns over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). SAT variability reveals significant warming trends, particularly from 1994 onward, as demonstrated by nonlinear and linear trend analysis. This warming is linked to global climate patterns, which serve as significant indicators for studying the effects of climate change on surface air temperature patterns across the KSA. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method is employed for analyzing SAT due to its effectiveness in extracting dominant patterns of variability during the winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. The first mode (EOF1) for both seasons shows positive variability across the KSA, explaining more than 45% of the variance. The second mode (EOF2) indicates negative variability in central and northern regions. The third mode (EOF3) describes positive variability but with lower variance over time. PC1 is used to describe the physical mechanism of SAT variability and correlations with global sea surface temperature (SST). The physical mechanism shows that the variability in Mediterranean troughs during the winter season and high pressure over the Indian Ocean and central Asia controls SAT variability over the KSA. The correlation coefficients (CCs) were calculated during the winter and summer season between the SAT of the KSA and six teleconnection indices, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), Pacific Warm Pool (PWP), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST for the period from 1994 to 2022. ENSO shifts from positive to negative correlations with SAT from winter to summer. IOD shows a diminished correlation with SAT due to the absence of upper air dynamics. PWP consistently enhances surface warming in both seasons through upper air convergence during both seasons. AMM and NAO have a non-significant impact on SAT; however, TNA contributes warming over central and northern parts during winter and summer seasons. The seasonal SAT variations emphasize the significant role of ENSO, PWP, and TNA across the seasons. The findings of this study can be helpful for seasonal predictability in the KSA. Full article

Understanding how ocean currents influence larval dispersal and measuring its magnitude is critical for conservation and sustainable exploitation, especially in the Tropical Eastern Pacific (TEP), where the larval transport of rocky reef fish remains untested. For this reason, a lagrangian simulation model was implemented to estimate larval transport pathways in Northwestern Mexico and TEP. Particle trajectories were simulated with data from the Hybrid Ocean Coordinate Model, focusing on three simulation scenarios: (1) using the occurrence records of Lutjanus peru and L. argentiventris as release sites; (2) considering a continuous distribution along the study area, and (3) taking the reproduction seasonality into account in both species. It was found that the continuous distribution scenario largely explained the genetic structure previously found in both species (genetic brakes between central and southern Mexico and Central America), confirming that the ocean currents play a significant role as predictors of genetic differentiation and gene flow in Northwestern Mexico and the TEP. Due to the oceanography of the area, the southern localities supply larvae from the northern localities; therefore, disturbances in any southern localities could affect the surrounding areas and have impacts that spread beyond their political boundaries. Full article

Some predatory fishes may exhibit opportunistic feeding behaviour by exploiting potential prey that is distracted, displaced, or exposed by the activities of a third party that acts as a ‘nuclear’ species. Other fishes mostly perform the role of ‘nuclear’ species, but benthic invertebrates, such as octopuses, have also been reported. Crabs are rarely observed in this role, with only a few records from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Here, we report the temporary association between two specimens of the flowery flounder, Bothus mancus (family Bothidae), and a box crab, Calappa hepatica (family Calappidae), from the Philippines, representing the first record of a crab–fish feeding association in the Indo-Pacific region. Full article

The Omura’s whale (Balaenoptera omurai) is one of the most recently described species of baleen whale. Initially known only from stranding and whaling specimens, it has now been identified in all ocean basins excluding the central and eastern Pacific. Unlike most baleen whales that migrate between the poles and the equator seasonally, the Omura’s whale is known to inhabit tropical to sub-tropical waters year-round. In Australian waters, there remain fewer than 30 confirmed visual sightings over the past decade. However, based on acoustic records, the Omura’s whale has been detected off areas of the northwest coast of Australia year-round. This study utilises passive acoustic recordings from 41 locations around Australia from 2005 to 2023 to assess the distribution and seasonality of the Omura’s whale. The seasonal presence of Omura’s whale vocalisations varied by location, with higher presence at lower latitudes. Vocalisations were detected year-round in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf in the Timor Sea, and near Browse Island and Scott Reef, in the Kimberley region. In the Pilbara region, acoustic presence mostly peaked from February to April and no acoustic presence was consistently observed from July to September across all sites. The most southerly occurrence of Omura’s whale vocalisations was recorded off the North West Cape in the Gascoyne region. Vocalisations similar but not identical to those of the Omura’s whale were detected in the Great Barrier Reef. The identified seasonal distribution provides valuable information to assess environmental and anthropogenic pressures on the Omura’s whale and to aid in creating management and conservation policies for the species in Australia. Full article

A major challenge for climate system models in simulating the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variations of East Asian rainfall anomalies is the wide inter-model spread of outputs, which causes considerable uncertainty in physical mechanism understanding and short-term climate prediction. This study investigates the fidelity of 40 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the impacts of ENSO on South China Spring Rainfall (SCSR) during the ENSO decaying spring. The response of SCSR to ENSO, as well as the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), is quite different among the models; some models even simulate opposite SCSR anomalies compared to the observations. However, the models capturing the ENSO-related warm SSTAs over TIO tend to simulate a better SCSR-ENSO relationship, which is much closer to observation. Therefore, models are grouped based on the simulated TIO SSTAs to explore the modulating processes of the TIO SSTAs in ENSO affecting SCSR anomalies. Comparing analysis suggests that the warm TIO SSTA can force the equatorial north–south antisymmetric circulation in the lower troposphere, which is conducive to the westward extension and maintenance of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC). In addition, the TIO SSTA enhances the upper tropospheric East Asian subtropical westerly jet, leading to anomalous divergence over South China. Thus, the westward extension and strengthening of WNPAC can transport sufficient water vapor for South China, which is associated with the ascending motion caused by the upper tropospheric divergence, leading to the abnormal SCSR. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive analysis on the variations in the tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies during 1980–2021, including the linear trends, periodicities, and their variabilities on both global and basin-wise scales. An increasing trend in the annual number of global TCs is identified, with a significant rising trend in the numbers of tropical storms (maximum sustained wind $35 \mathrm{k}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{s}\le U_{max}<64 \mathrm{k}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{s}$) and intense typhoons ($U_{max}\ge 96 \mathrm{k}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{s}$) and a deceasing trend for weak typhoons ($64 \mathrm{k}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{s}\le U_{max}<96 \mathrm{k}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{s}$). There is no statistically significant trend shown in the global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). On a regional scale, the Western North Pacific (WNP) and Eastern North Pacific (ENP) are the regions of the first- and second-largest numbers of TCs, respectively, while the increased TC activity in the North Atlantic (NA) contributes the most to the global increase in TCs. It is revealed in the wavelet transformation for periodicity analysis that the variations in the annual number of TCs with different intensities mostly show an inter-annual period of 3–7 years and an inter-decadal one of 10–13 years. The inter-annual and inter-decadal periods are consistent with those in the ENSO-related ocean drivers (via the Niño 3.4 index), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The inter-decadal variation in 10–13 years is also observed in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, on the other hand, present the same inter-annual period of 7–10 years as that in the frequencies of all the named TCs in the NA. Further, the correlations between TC frequencies and ocean drivers are also quantified using the Pearson correlation coefficient. These findings contribute to an enhanced understanding of TC activity, thereby facilitating efforts to predict particular TC activity and mitigate the inflicted damage. Full article

Estimating the ocean’s subsurface thermohaline information from satellite measurements is essential for understanding ocean dynamics and the El Niño phenomenon. This paper proposes an improved double-output residual neural network (DO-ResNet) model to concurrently estimate the subsurface temperature (ST) and subsurface salinity (SS) in the tropical Western Pacific using multi-source remote sensing data, including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface wind (SSW), and geographical information (including longitude and latitude). In the model experiment, Argo data were used to train and validate the model, and the root mean square error (RMSE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²) were employed to evaluate the model’s performance. The results showed that the sea surface parameters selected in this study have a positive effect on the estimation process, and the average RMSE and R² values for estimating ST (SS) by the proposed model are 0.34 °C (0.05 psu) and 0.91 (0.95), respectively. Under the data conditions considered in this study, DO-ResNet demonstrates superior performance relative to the extreme gradient boosting model, random forest model, and artificial neural network model. Additionally, this study evaluates the model’s accuracy by comparing its estimations of ST and SS across different depths with Argo data, demonstrating the model’s ability to effectively capture the most spatial features, and by comparing NRMSE across different depths and seasons, the model demonstrates strong adaptability to seasonal variations. In conclusion, this research introduces a novel artificial intelligence technique for estimating ST and SS in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean. Full article

The analysis of rainfall patterns in the Indonesian region utilized the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method to identify spatial and temporal variations. The study evaluated the dynamic influence of the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO) on Indonesian rainfall using monthly data from the Southeast Asian Climate Assessment and Dataset (SACA&D) spanning from January 1981 to December 2016 and encompassing three extreme El Niño events in 1982/1983, 1997/1998 and 2015/2016. Using combined reanalysis and gridded-observation data, this study evaluates the potential impact of the two primary modes in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, namely the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Indonesian rainfall. The analysis using the EOF method revealed two main modes with variances of 35.23% and 13.07%, respectively. Moreover, the results indicated that rainfall in Indonesia is highly sensitive to sea surface temperatures (SST) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and the central Pacific Ocean (Niño3.4 and Niño3 areas), suggesting that changes in SST could significantly alter rainfall patterns in the region. This research is useful for informing government policies related to anticipating changes in rainfall variability as part of Indonesia’s preparedness for hydrometeorological disasters. Full article

This study analyzed the change in and mechanisms of summer extreme precipitation in Southwest China (SWC) during 1979–2021. The trend in summer extreme precipitation showed an evident interdecadal mutation in the late 1990s; it decreased during 1979–1996 (P1) and increased during 1997–2021 (P2). It is observed that the moisture flux in SWC is more abundant in P2 than in P1. The South Asian high (SAH) and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) contributed to the change in extreme precipitation in SWC. Both the SAH and WPSH weakened in 1979–1996 and enhanced in 1997–2021. The enhanced SAH and WPSH are conducive to forming updrafts in SWC and transporting moisture from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and South China Sea (SCS) into SWC. Further research found that the causes for the interdecadal variation of the SAH and WPSH are the anomalies of sensible heat flux (SSH) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical western Pacific–Indian Oceans. The SSH is the main energy source of troposphere air and an essential component of the surface heat balance because it can maintain the intensity and influence range of the SAH. The increasing SST stimulated strong upward motion and thus maintained the strength of the WPSH, which also made the WPSH extend westward into mainland China. This study also summarized local human adaptation to climate change. The use of advanced science and technology to improve monitoring and forecasting ability is an important measure for human society to adapt to climate change. At the same time, increasing the participation of individuals and social organizations is also an indispensable way to increase human resilience to climate change. Full article

Currently, the “spring predictability barrier” (SPB) is still a controversial problem in many atmosphere–ocean coupled models and has significant impacts on degrading the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions across the boreal spring. In this study, unlike previous studies that viewed the SPB issue from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST), based on the Bjerknes feedback theory and the decadal variations in Walker circulation over the tropical Pacific, a new perspective of the SPB is revealed by the seasonal variations in the observed zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient, which can reflect the stability and variability of the atmosphere–ocean interactions during the ENSO’s evolution. More importantly, a significant decadal variation of SPB strength (SPBS) is exhibited in the last 3 decades, from 1991 to 2020, which is strongly controlled by the dominant patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and Walker circulation, and associated with the background mean atmosphere–ocean states. That is to say, the atmosphere–ocean interaction pattern over the tropical Pacific has undergone decadal variations over the past 3 decades which determine the decadal variations in SPBS. International Research Institute for Climate and Society/Climate Prediction Center (IRI/CPC) multi-models show stronger SPBS during 2001–2010 than during 2011–2020, indicating that the decadal variations in SPBS from statistical analysis also exist in actual model predictions, which further confirms the rationality of this perspective of SPB based on the zonal SLP gradient. Full article

Investigating the physical mechanism behind the formation of summer heat-drought weather (HDW) in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) holds significant importance for predicting summer precipitation and temperature patterns in the region as well as disaster mitigation and prevention. This study focuses on spatiotemporal patterns of July–August (JA) HDW in the YRB from 1979 to 2022, which is linked partially to the preceding May–June (MJ) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Key findings are summarized as follows: (1) The MJ AAO displays a marked positive correlation with the JA HDW index (HDWI) in the southern part of upper YRB (UYRB), while showing a negative correlation in the area extending from the Han River to the western lower reaches of the YRB (LYRB); (2) The signal of MJ AAO persists into late JA through a specific pattern of Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the Southern Ocean (SOSST). This, in turn, modulates the atmospheric circulation over East Asia; (3) The SST anomalies in the South Atlantic initiate Rossby waves that cross the equator, splitting into two branches. One branch propagates from the Somali-Tropical Indian Ocean, maintaining a negative-phased East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern. This enhances the moisture flow from the Pacific towards the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MYRB-LYRB). The other branch propagates northward, crossing the Somali region, and induces a positive geopotential height anomaly over Urals-West Asia. This reduces the southwesterlies towards the UYRB, thereby contributing to HDW variabilities in the region. (4) Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) demonstrated predictive capability for JA HDW in the YRB for 2022, based on Southern Ocean SST. Full article

The summer Asian westerly jet (AWJ)’s shifting in latitudes is one important characteristic of its variability and has great impact on the East Asian summer climate. Based on the observed and reanalyzed datasets from the Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST), the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55), and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5), this study investigates the relationship between the spring tripole North Atlantic SST (TNAT) anomalies and the summer meridional shift of the AWJ (MSJ) for the period of 1958–2020. Through the method of correlation analysis and regression analysis, we show that the ‘+ - +’ TNAT anomalies in spring could induce a northward shift of the AWJ in the following summer. However, such a climatic effect of the spring TNAT anomalies on the MSJ is unstable, exhibiting an evident interdecadal strengthening since the early 1990s. Further analysis reveals that this is related to a strengthened intensity of the spring TNAT anomalies in the most recent three decades. Compared to the early epoch (1958–1993), the stronger spring TNAT anomalies in the post epoch (1994–2020) could cause a stronger pan-tropical climate response until the following summer through a series of ocean–atmosphere interactions. Through Gill responses, the resultant more prominent cooling in the central Pacific in response to the ‘+ - +’ TNAT anomalies induces a pan-tropical cooling in the upper troposphere, which weakens the poleward gradient of the tropospheric temperature over subtropical Asia. As a result, the AWJ shifts northward via a thermal wind effect. By contrast, in the early epoch, the spring TNAT anomalies are relatively weaker, inducing weaker pan-tropical ocean–atmosphere interactions and thus less change in the meridional shit of the summer AWJ. Our results highlight a strengthened lagged effect of the spring TNAT anomalies on the following summer MSJ and have important implications for the seasonal climate predictability over Asia. Full article

A large amount of thermal energy is stored in the oceans between the tropics, available for conversion into electrical energy using OTEC technology. The aim of this study was to determine the annual and seasonal variability of the oceanic thermal resource in Mexico. Using the WOA18 database, we mapped surface temperature at a 10 m depth, deep cold water (<5 °C), vertical temperature difference (18 and 20 °C), and temperature anomalies. From the results, four areas were analyzed as being suitable for the installation of OTEC technology: Pacific (A), Los Cabos (B), Caribbean (C), and Gulf of Mexico (G). The optimal thermal resource (≥20 °C) was found between a 400 and 1000 m depth in all seasons in A and C, in spring, summer, and autumn in G, and only in summer and autumn in B. The suboptimal thermal resource (between 18 and 20 °C) was present between 400 and 800 m in all seasons in A, C, and G, and in summer and autumn in B. These results provide new information of utmost importance for future location and design considerations of OTEC plants on Mexican coasts, and the methodology can be used in other areas where there is a lack of field data and the development of OTEC technology is being considered. Full article

Heavy rainfall under the conditions of the changing climate has recently garnered considerable attention. The statistics on heavy daily rainfall offer vital information for assessing present and future extreme events and for clarifying the impacts of global climate variability and change, working to form a favorable background. By analyzing a set of large-ensemble simulations using a global atmospheric model, this study demonstrated that two different physical processes in global climate variability control the interannual fluctuations in the 99th- and 90th-percentile values of summertime daily rainfall (i.e., the potential amounts) on Kyushu Island in western Japan. The 90th-percentile values were closely related to large-scale horizontal moisture transport anomalies due to changes in the subtropical high in the northwestern Pacific, which was usually accompanied by basin-scale warming in the Indian Ocean subsequent to the wintertime El Niño events. The contributions of the sea surface temperatures over the northern Indian Ocean and the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean showed low-frequency modulations, mainly due to the influences of the global warming tendency and the interdecadal variability in the climate system, respectively. In contrast, tropical cyclone activity played a major role in changing the 99th-percentile value. The potentials of both the tropical cyclone intensity and the existence density fluctuated, largely owing to the summertime sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific, which can be modulated by the El Niño diversity on interdecadal timescales. Full article