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Keywords = ECB’s balance sheet

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20 pages, 1347 KiB  
Article
Assessing the Impact of the ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policy on the European Stock Markets
by Carlos J. Rincon and Anastasiia V. Petrova
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(9), 425; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17090425 - 23 Sep 2024
Viewed by 865
Abstract
This study assesses the effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on the prices of selected European stock market indices during the European sovereign debt (2010–2012) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022) crises interventions. This research employs the instrumental variables [...] Read more.
This study assesses the effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on the prices of selected European stock market indices during the European sovereign debt (2010–2012) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022) crises interventions. This research employs the instrumental variables (IV) two-stage least squares (2SLS) model approach to evaluate the effects of changes in the size of the ECB’s balance sheet on the pricing of key equity market indices in Europe. The results of this study suggest that the ECB’s asset value expansion had the opposite statistically significant effects on the European stock market indices’ prices between the interventions. That is, an increase in the ECB’s balance sheet size was associated with a decrease in the prices of the indices during the sovereign debt crisis and with a rise during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research pinpoints the price sensitivity of each of the European equity indices to the ECB’s UMP and determines the different outcomes of the ECB’s quantitative easing policy between the interventions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Valuation and Econometrics)
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<p>ECB’s balance sheet, German 10-year government bond yield, and European short-term rate.</p>
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<p>Major European stock market indices’ prices.</p>
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20 pages, 599 KiB  
Article
The Effect of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy on Firms’ Performance during the Global Financial Crisis
by Charalampos Basdekis, Apostolos Christopoulos, Evgenios Gakias and Ioannis Katsampoxakis
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(5), 258; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16050258 - 27 Apr 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2211
Abstract
This study aims to analyse and investigate the most important factors affecting the performance of listed firms in the Athens Stock Exchange, emphasising capital structure, size and sovereign debt rate as a proxy for firms’ borrowing rate. Yet, the most remarkable factor taken [...] Read more.
This study aims to analyse and investigate the most important factors affecting the performance of listed firms in the Athens Stock Exchange, emphasising capital structure, size and sovereign debt rate as a proxy for firms’ borrowing rate. Yet, the most remarkable factor taken into consideration to affect firms’ profitability is the delta of ECB assets as a proxy of the ECB’s strategy during the financial crisis. Indeed, the examination of the ECB’s delta is innovative for such analysis and differentiates this study from previous ones. The survey was conducted for the period 2005–2019, and the sample consisted of 49 firms from all sectors of the economic activity, except for the financial sector, as its companies’ capital structure is subject to supervisory restrictions. Thus, the financial sector’s inclusion in the sample would affect its homogeneity. The sample is divided into two sub periods, based on the statement of ECB’s president Mario Draghi “Whatever it takes,” in 2012, expressing the ECB’s strategy for backing and boosting the Eurozone economy. The empirical approach of our analysis is based on a panel data analysis, which allows the combination of both cross-section and time series data. In addition, we develop, test and analyse four specifications of our main model, each one with a different dependent variable as a proxy for profitability. These variables are EPS (earnings per share), ROE (return on equity), ROA (return on assets) and TOBIN’s Q. Our findings lead to some very interesting conclusions, which in most cases are consistent for the specification of all the examined models. More specifically, the results show a negative influence of debt-to-equity ratio and 10-year Greek yield bond on firms’ profitability regardless of the proxy used (EPS, ROE or TOBIN’s Q), while there is a positive impact of firms’ size and the delta of ECB’s total assets on firms’ profitability. However, the soundest outcome of this study shows that the expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet and the unconventional policy does contribute to the improvement of firms’ performance and economic stability. The findings become even more impressive, considering the turning of ECB’s strategy after the implementation of the unconventional policy in 2012. Our findings are useful for policymakers of international institutions and government authorities as we propose strategies favouring economic stability and economic activity but also for managers and stakeholders who can identify the factors which determine firms’ performance in order to apply the best policies for financing, investments and growth. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Global Trends and Challenges in Economics and Finance)
3720 KiB  
Article
The ECB’s Fight against Low Inflation: On the Effects of Ultra-Low Interest Rates
by Ad Van Riet
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2017, 5(2), 12; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs5020012 - 7 Apr 2017
Cited by 13 | Viewed by 9719
Abstract
Starting in June 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) stepped up its monetary accommodation in order to counter a too prolonged period of low inflation in the euro area. This article offers a narrative of the monetary policy measures taken up to December [...] Read more.
Starting in June 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) stepped up its monetary accommodation in order to counter a too prolonged period of low inflation in the euro area. This article offers a narrative of the monetary policy measures taken up to December 2016 and a review of the effects of ultra-low interest rates. The exceptional monetary stimulus transmitted to the economy broadly as intended. Moreover, it enhanced the financial capacity of economic agents to bear risks. At the same time, the ECB and the European micro- and macro-prudential authorities remained watchful of the unintended side-effects of an extended period of very low or negative interest rates for financial intermediation, financial stability and market discipline and took preventive or corrective measures as appropriate. A joint plan of action carried out by the 19 member countries with the aim to speed up balance sheet repair, accelerate the economic recovery and achieve higher productivity growth could have contributed to a more effective euro area macroeconomic and financial policy mix. Full article
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<p>Consumer price inflation in the euro area (annual percentage changes). Source: Eurostat. Latest observation: December 2016. Note: HICP = Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices.</p>
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<p>ECB key interest rates and the euro overnight interest rate (daily data, percentages per annum). Source: ECB, Thomson Reuters. ECB key interest rates at 31 December 2016: marginal lending rate = 0.25%; main refinancing rate = 0.0%; deposit facility rate = −0.4%.</p>
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<p>ECB monetary policy operations and excess liquidity (billions of euro). Source: ECB. Latest observation: 31 December 2016. Note: Tender operations include main, longer term and targeted longer term refinancing operations against eligible collateral; outright portfolios include public and private sector asset purchases in the market.</p>
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<p>Composite bank interest rates for new loans to non-financial corporations (percentages per annum). Source: ECB. Latest observation: December 2016. Note: The composite cost of bank lending combines short- and long-term rates on new loans using a 24-month moving average of new business volumes as weights. The cross-country dispersion displays the minimum and maximum range over a fixed sample of 12 euro area countries.</p>
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<p>Euro area average government bond yield curve (synthetic yields in percentages per annum and maturity in years). Source: Bloomberg, ECB.</p>
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<p>Asset price changes and the impact of ECB monetary easing (changes in basis points for bond yields, in percent for exchange rates and stock prices). Source: Bloomberg, ECB calculations. Note: The impact of monetary easing measures from June 2014 to March 2016 is estimated with econometric event studies, news analyses and model-based counterfactual exercises with a focus on announcement effects. See also (<a href="#B3-ijfs-05-00012" class="html-bibr">Altavilla et al. 2015</a>) and (<a href="#B20-ijfs-05-00012" class="html-bibr">De Santis 2016</a>). EA, DE, FR, IT and ES = Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, respectively; NFC = non-financial corporations; USD/EUR = nominal euro exchange rate to the U.S. dollar; NEER = nominal effective exchange rate of the euro; Euro Stoxx = Dow Jones Euro Stoxx (broad) index.</p>
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<p>Broad monetary aggregate M3 and bank lending to the non-financial private sector (annual percentage changes). Source: ECB. Latest observation: December 2016. Note: Bank loans are adjusted for loan sales, securitization and notional cash pooling.</p>
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<p>Distribution of deposit rates for non-financial corporations and households across euro area banks (x-axis: deposit rates in percentages per annum; y-axis: frequencies in percentages). Source: ECB. Observations refer to October 2016. Note: Deposit rates on new business as reported by individual banks. The dotted lines show the weighted averages of deposit rates.</p>
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<p>Change in net income of euro area significant banking groups (decomposition of change in net income between 2014 and 2015 in billions of euro). Source: SNL Financial and ECB calculations. Note: Based on data for a sample of 83 euro area significant banking groups.</p>
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<p>Government debt securities issued by euro area governments, average yield (x-axis: yield on debt securities issued over the last 12 months in December 2016 compared to May 2014; y-axis: yield on the stock of debt securities in December 2016 compared to May 2014; percentages per annum). Source: ECB. Note: National data exclude Greece, Cyprus, Estonia and Luxembourg. The deviating pattern for Austria may be related to the downgrade of its credit rating from AAA to AA and its issuance of two relatively expensive bonds with an ultra-long maturity of 30 and 70 years.</p>
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