Integrating Scientific and Stakeholder-Based Knowledge to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Kurunegala and Galle, Sri Lanka

The promotion of sustainability and resilience within urban environments is widely recognized as an essential approach to educating urban communities through innovative strategies and tools. This paper presents a process for integrating stakeholders into urban growth simulation, thereby enhancing sustainable decision-making. Currently, most urban growth models fail to incorporate the perspectives of diverse stakeholders, leading to reduced equitable participation in the decision-making process. To achieve long-term sustainability, it is imperative to include the input and viewpoints of stakeholders. This study follows a four-step approach: identifying relevant stakeholders, developing the framework, evaluating its effectiveness, and documenting lessons learned. The framework involves key steps, including initial participatory modeling, analysis of development pressures and suitability with stakeholders, and technical urban growth modeling. A unique combination of modeling tools and an innovative approach was employed, incorporating the default FUTURES (GRASS-GIS) model alongside the CA-Markov Chain, Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) (NetLogo), the Cellular-Automata-based Python model, and MOLUSCE-QGIS. This integrated approach facilitates the inclusion of stakeholder-based knowledge into conventional urban growth modeling, providing novel local lessons in science, technology, and innovation initiatives. Validation was conducted through both technical and stakeholder mechanisms, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed framework.