Multifractal Analysis of Market Efficiency across Structural Breaks: Implications for the Adaptive Market Hypothesis
<p>Visualization of the data.</p> "> Figure 2
<p>BIC and residual sum of squares.</p> "> Figure 3
<p>Visualization of segment-wise structural breaks.</p> "> Figure 4
<p>Whole data price, volume, and price-volume cross-correlation spectrum.</p> "> Figure 5
<p>Segment 1 price, volume, and price-volume cross-correlation spectrum.</p> "> Figure 6
<p>Segment 2 price, volume, and price-volume cross-correlation spectrum.</p> "> Figure 7
<p>Segment 3 price, volume, and price-volume cross-correlation spectrum.</p> "> Figure 8
<p>Segment 4 price, volume, and price-volume cross-correlation spectrum.</p> "> Figure 9
<p>Segment 5 price, volume, and price-volume cross-correlation spectrum.</p> ">
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- To assess the impact of structural breaks on the long-memory in the price, volume, and price-volume relationship;
- To detect the possible change in the price-volume relationship among these breaks.
2. Literature Review
2.1. Multifractality and Price-Volume Relationship
2.2. MFDCCA and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis
3. Methodology
3.1. Structural Breaks
3.2. Detrended Fluctuation Analysis
3.3. MFDFA
- a
- The detrended residuals are calculated using the following equation:
- b
- The fluctuation function is calculated as the RMS of the detrended residuals:
- c
- The order of the fluctuation function is calculated for a given value of q.
- d
- The power law relation is then described by the equation:
3.4. MFDCCA
4. Data and Analysis
4.1. Data
4.2. Analysis of Structural Breaks
4.3. Multifractal Analysis
Interpretation of the Graphs
5. Results and Discussion
5.1. Entire Data
5.2. Segment 1–Segment 5
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
AMH | Adaptive Market Hypothesis |
BIC | Bayesian Information Criteria |
EMH | Efficient Market Hypothesis |
MFDFA | Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis |
MFDCCA | Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis |
MDM | Mixture of Distribution Model |
RSS | Residual Sum of Squares |
SIF | Sequential arrival of Information Flow |
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Price | Volume | Return | volChange | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Number of observations | 5957 | 5957 | 5957 | 5957 |
Minimum | 2600.12 | 423 | −0.11 | −5.68 |
Maximum | 40,267.6 | 1,166,709 | 0.17 | 5.29 |
Median | 13,156.7 | 148,410 | 0 | 0 |
Mean | 14,153.1 | 167,683 | 0 | 0 |
SE of mean | 136.58 | 1513.21 | 0 | 0 |
CI of mean 0.95 | 267.74 | 2966.44 | 0 | 0.01 |
Standard deviation | 10,541.3 | 116,792 | 0.01 | 0.29 |
Price Segments | [1995-07-17, 2002-07-10] | [2002-07-10, 2006-01-25] | [2006-01-25, 2009-09-07] | [2009-09-07, 2014-05-30] | [2014-05-30, 2019-08-06] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of observations | 1710 | 893 | 895 | 1178 | 1280 |
Minimum | 2600.12 | 2834.41 | 8160.4 | 15,175.1 | 22,951.83 |
Maximum | 5933.56 | 9648.08 | 20,873.3 | 24,716.9 | 40,267.62 |
Median | 3575.04 | 5358.35 | 13,799.5 | 18,342 | 28,798.47 |
Mean | 3742.69 | 5341.6 | 13,614.1 | 18,536.4 | 30,533.3 |
SE of mean | 15.11 | 60.62 | 98.07 | 49.89 | 124.99 |
CI of mean 0.95 | 29.64 | 118.97 | 192.47 | 97.89 | 245.22 |
Standard deviation | 624.87 | 1811.44 | 2933.86 | 1712.46 | 4471.93 |
Segment | Fluctuation Type | Price Is Persistent | Volume Is Persistent | Price-Volume |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cross-Correlation | ||||
Is Persistent | ||||
Entire Data | Large fluctuations | No | No | No |
Small fluctuations | Yes | No | No | |
1 | Large fluctuations | No | No | No |
Small fluctuations | Yes | No | No | |
2 | Large fluctuations | No | No | No |
Small fluctuations | Yes | No | No | |
3 | Large fluctuations | No | No | No |
Small fluctuations | Yes | No | No | |
4 | Large fluctuations | No | No | No |
Small fluctuations | Yes | No | No | |
5 | Large fluctuations | No | No | No |
Small fluctuations | Yes | No | No |
Segment | Multifractal Strength | Intensity and Complexity | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Price | Volume | Price-Volume Correlation | Price | Volume | Price-Volume Correlation | |
All Data | 0.322 | 0.714 | 0.493 | 0.506 | 0.991 | 0.752 |
1 | 0.518 | 0.749 | 0.273 | 0.749 | 1.030 | 0.430 |
2 | 0.412 | 0.430 | 0.238 | 0.601 | 0.597 | 0.387 |
3 | 0.367 | 0.811 | 0.527 | 0.548 | 1.063 | 0.710 |
4 | 0.363 | 0.550 | 0.231 | 0.518 | 0.717 | 0.356 |
5 | 0.212 | 0.426 | 0.251 | 0.354 | 0.617 | 0.416 |
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Patil, A.C.; Rastogi, S. Multifractal Analysis of Market Efficiency across Structural Breaks: Implications for the Adaptive Market Hypothesis. J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13, 248. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13100248
Patil AC, Rastogi S. Multifractal Analysis of Market Efficiency across Structural Breaks: Implications for the Adaptive Market Hypothesis. Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 2020; 13(10):248. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13100248
Chicago/Turabian StylePatil, Ashok Chanabasangouda, and Shailesh Rastogi. 2020. "Multifractal Analysis of Market Efficiency across Structural Breaks: Implications for the Adaptive Market Hypothesis" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 13, no. 10: 248. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13100248
APA StylePatil, A. C., & Rastogi, S. (2020). Multifractal Analysis of Market Efficiency across Structural Breaks: Implications for the Adaptive Market Hypothesis. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(10), 248. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13100248