Impairing Globalization: The Russo-Ukrainian War, Western Economic Sanctions and Asset Seizures
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Economic Sanctions
3. Russo-Ukrainian War
4. Universal Substitution and Non-Substitution
5. Russian Trade Dependency
6. Technological Progress
7. Russian Adjustment
8. Global Adjustment
9. Third Party Asset Collateralization and Impoundment
10. Reparations
11. Secondary Sanctions
12. Escalation
13. Conclusions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
1 | If the Pareto efficiency standard is discarded, then any politician can claim that the existing trade regime is best from their geopolitical perspective. |
2 | Sanctions prohibit adversaries from importing goods and services from the embargoing nations and selling their domestic outputs abroad. For a full assessment of economic sanctions, see (Morgan et al. 2023). SWIFT is a messaging service that facilitates information exchange between banks and other financial institutions. It connects more than 11,000 entities worldwide. |
3 | Zero marginal rates of factor substitution occur when isoquants are rectangular. Leontief input–output tables are constructed with rectangular isoquants. Domestic manufacturers in multiproduct firms producing import substitutes and embargoed export goods can increase output by reallocating variable factors from embargoed exports to import substitutes, despite the strong restriction non-substitution places on single-product firms. The West embargoes Russian imports and exports. The export embargo does not directly affect domestic consumption in the strong non-substitution case. The West’s import embargo prevents Russian consumption of foreign goods. This is a deadweight loss, given strong non-substitution because, under strong non-substitution, domestic substitutes cannot replace embargoed imports. |
4 | The export embargo affects domestic employment and derivative demand for imports. |
5 | Intra-multiproduct firm, inter-enterprise, inter-sectoral and inter-distributional factor mobility and substitution normally will differ across activities. Embargo-imposed forced demand substitution and moderate factor substitution and mobility will shift production downward from the production possibility frontier and alter the product mix. The precise effects of these adjustments are computable in principle, given perfect information. See (Rosefielde et al. 1985). |
6 | The effect on consumer or other sovereign utility is assessable with a Bergson social welfare function. See (Bergson 1938, 1954, 1976; Kahneman 2011; Rosefielde 2023). Bergson’s social welfare function transforms outputs into consumer utilities, expressed cardinally in national currencies. Exact utilitarian calculation is impossible (Rosefielde and Pfouts 2014). The sovereign decides the appropriate policy action on whatever decision criteria they prefer. |
7 | This adjustment assumes that Russia receives technology transfer from non-Western suppliers and leakage from the West. The figure is conjecture. |
8 | The West does not acknowledge that failure to pay interest on securities owned by Russia is a “default”, claiming Western governments have the right to expropriate interest payments on frozen securities held by custodians like Euroclear. The West, in its view, is not defaulting. It is impounding interest. The US Treasury stills pay interests on Russian-owned debt. It is Congress that confiscates it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine (accessed on 31 August 2024) |
9 | “Imposing sanctions and trade restrictions on China would be as disruptive as sanctions have been on Russia’s auto industry, with dramatic implications for the world economy”. |
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Rosefielde, S. Impairing Globalization: The Russo-Ukrainian War, Western Economic Sanctions and Asset Seizures. J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17, 402. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17090402
Rosefielde S. Impairing Globalization: The Russo-Ukrainian War, Western Economic Sanctions and Asset Seizures. Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 2024; 17(9):402. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17090402
Chicago/Turabian StyleRosefielde, Steven. 2024. "Impairing Globalization: The Russo-Ukrainian War, Western Economic Sanctions and Asset Seizures" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 17, no. 9: 402. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17090402
APA StyleRosefielde, S. (2024). Impairing Globalization: The Russo-Ukrainian War, Western Economic Sanctions and Asset Seizures. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 17(9), 402. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17090402