Современные международные отношения в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе: продвинутый курс

The literature review: why is it largely theoretical? Area studies and international relations: are they complementary or mutually conflicting? Why is there no Asian international relations theory? Realism: main discourses and arguments relevant to the Asia-Pacific region. The contribution of realism to the understanding of international dynamics. The key shortcomings of realism: the institutional dimension and the logic of balancing. The fundamental contradiction of realism and its relevance to the Asia-Pacific specificity. Liberalism and its Asia-Pacific dimension: arguments and counter-arguments. The interdependence through the supply-production chains and the Asian paradox. The “democratic peace” theory and liberal institutionalism: to extent of their applicability to the Asia-Pacific practice. Constructivism in the Asia-Pacific intellectual narrative. The Asia-Pacific regionalism in the constructivist intellectual paradigm. The European and the Asia-Pacific regionalisms: main lines of differentiation. The main academic “value-added” and the shortcomings of regionalism: why is it so popular among the Asia-Pacific foreign policy experts?

The stages of institution-building in Southeast Asia. The Association of Southeast Asia and MAFILINDO as multilateral projects: the key reasons for failure. Changes in international relations in Southeast Asia in the early-mid 1960s: the Indonesia, the Vietnam and the China factors and their implications for regionalism in Southeast Asia. Mid-1960s: the main motives of the “ASEAN-5” to establish a multilateral dialogue platform. The Bangkok Declaration and its main provisions. The “dynamic-changing” contribution of the establishment of ASEAN to international relations in Southeast Asia. New nuances in major powers’ approaches to Southeast Asia in the late-1960s – mid 1970s and the ASEAN response. The ZOPFAN Declaration and its assessment. The ASEAN Bali Summit (February 1976) and its key outcomes. The specificity of the ASEAN Way. Relations between ASEAN and the communist states of Indochina in the mid- late 1970s. The Cambodian issue in the ASEAN policy: stages, directions and outcomes. The Kuantan formulae and Coalition Government of Democratic Kampuchea in the ASEAN’s approach. The specificity of resolving the issue and the assessment of the ASEAN’s contribution. Main repercussion of the ASEAN’s Cold War experience for the further development of economic and political-security regionalism in Southeast Asia.

The post-Cold war international milieu and the ASEAN’s response. Trade and investment liberalization as multilateral projects. The ASEAN’s expansions and its main aftereffects for regionalism in Southeast Asia. “ASEAN Vision-2020” and its main provisions. The decisions of the ASEAN Summits in Bali, Cebu and Singapore and their outcomes. Blueprints for the ASEAN Economic, Political-Security and Sociocultural Community: vision vs results. Main imbalances and contradictions between the ASEAN’s prospective plans and the results obtained. ASEAN as a “diplomatic community”: is a “shallow integration” enough? The ASEAN Community-2025: the key differences from the ASEAN Community- 2015. ASEAN Community: between the emerging Indo-Pacific region and the Belt and Road Initiative. ASEAN amid the forthcoming Fourth Industrial Revolution: issues, solutions and tasks ahead. ASEAN in the global politics and economy: new resources and a new role.

ASEAN and the Asia-Pacific security regionalism. The establishment of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF): key reasons and implications. The Soviet, Australian and Canadian proposals at catalysts of the ASEAN’s activity. Council for Security and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region as the “second-track” of the Asia-Pacific cooperative security system. ASEAN as the “driving force” of ARF: points of criticism and the response. The East Asia Summit (EAS) as a multilateral dialogue platform. The contribution from the East Asia Vision Group and the East Asia Study Group to the region-building narrative. China and the EAS: reasons behind interest. Discussions on the participation in the East Asia Summit in 2003- 2005. East Asia Free Trade Area (EAFTA) and Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia (CEPEA) as mutually contradictory projects and their assessment. The admission of the US and Russia in the East Asia Summit and its agenda in the 2010s. ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus Eight (ADMM+8): a retrospective view. Non-traditional security challenges in the ADMM+8 agenda. Main reasons behind the ASEAN’s plans to establish the ADMM+8: the practical and the reputational dimensions. Most important outcomes of the ADMM+8 sessions in 2010-2017. Challenges encountered by the ADMM+8 and the tasks ahead. The future challenges of ASEAN as the “driver” of the cooperative security system in the Asia-Pacific region. Bringing up a new generation of leaders, the empowerment of the ASEAN’s people, elaborating on the ASEAN identity, upgrading the ASEAN institutions.

The key reasons behind linking the Indian and the Pacific oceans. The SLOC factor: rising volumes of trade. The rise of China and India in international politics and economy. The emancipation of Asia-Pacific middle powers (Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Australia). The institutional dimension of the issue: the ASEAN-led multilateral dialogue platforms in the Indo-Pacific narrative. The Indo-Pacific region in the priorities of its key actors. China: the security vulnerability factor in the Indian Ocean. The “string of pearls” and the “places not bases” strategies. Can China’s infrastructure projects be converted into military bases? The specificity of Indian policy: why has India’s Indo-Pacific discourse been modest so far? The United States: the cooperative (India) and the competitive (China) motivations for driving the Indo-Pacific narrative. The economic dimension of the Indo-Pacific project. How to make the Indo-Pacific region-building efforts efficient? Which institutions will drive the Indo-Pacific agenda? Is the Indo-Pacific region a strategic system? What principles of cooperation should be developed?

Australia as a typical “middle power”: the potential and foreign policy vision. The key goals and tasks of Australia’s foreign policy: the US factor and the nascent bid for self- dependency. Australia as part of the US-led system of alliances in the Asia-Pacific region. The rationale for the alliance: the US’ and Australia’s perspectives. The main constraints on Australia’s security profile in the Asia-Pacific region: the international and the domestic factors compared. Japan in current Australia’s policy: why do the two countries favor each other? The practical dimension of Australia-Japan cooperation. Trilateral cooperation between Australia, Japan and the US: accomplishments and limitations. India as a new security partner. Prospects for the Quadrilateral Defense Cooperation (Quad): an assessment. The Indo-Pacific discourse in Australia’s foreign policy vision and actions. Prospects for a clash of Australian geo-economic and geo-political priorities. Will the “tyranny of distance” change for a “peril of proximity”? The specificity of New Zealand’s foreign policy (the factor of food production). New Zealand’s regional role in the Pacific, relations with the main partners (the US, China and Australia). Differences between the policies of New Zealand and Australia. New Zealand in the Belt and Road Initiative: potential benefits, challenges and tasks ahead. Small countries of South Pacific as a focus of attention of major powers. China’s policy: the “third islands chain factor”. Main Chinese infrastructure projects in Oceania. The Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations Plus (PACER Plus): an assessment.

The Kashmir issue: the ethnic, political and international dimensions. The historical background of the issue: from late-1940s to late-2010s. India and Pakistan: the competing nationalist narratives. The internal dimension of the Kashmir issue: the demand for self- determination. Terrorist organizations and their influence in Kashmir: the nascent drive to “Kashmiriyat”? Critical questions of the future evolution of the issue. Can the existing Line of Control be recognized as the formal border? The Siachen Glacier issue and its specificity. The geographical location and the strategic significance of the Glacier. The historical retrospective of the issue and the reasons for the current stalemate. The peace efforts and the results obtained. A trans-boundary park under the auspices of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and a World Heritage Part under the auspices of UNESCO: aspirations and limitations. The specificity, stages and driving forces of India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear programs. India’s and Pakistan’s positions towards Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and Comprehensive Nuclear Test ban Treaty as case studies). The US factor in the development of India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear potentials. The present state of India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear forces: the SIPRI assessments: the strategic and the tactical capabilities. Three structural characteristics of the nuclear dimension of India-Pakistan contradictions. China’s, the US’ and Russia’s factors. India’s overall power superiority factor in the India-Pakistan nuclear standoff. Pakistan’s asymmetric response in Kashmir as part of the issue.

The territorial disputes in relations between China and India. The specificity of Tibet dispute. The economic, political and strategic significance of Tibet for China and for India. The Shimla conference and its influence upon the future evolution of the issue. The key reasons behind the contradictions over Tibet: the economic, political-security and ideological dimensions. The specificity of the Doklam issue. Why does India support Bhutan? Is a large- scale conflict likely? Does the existence of the Sino-Indian dispute serve the interests of both parties? Infrastructure projects in South Asia and their implications upon China-India relations. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its Indian dimension. Main reasons for India’s concerns. Can Indian ports cope with the expected requirements of the BRI? China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): main features and components. The Pakistani perspectives on CPEC: economic and political aftereffects. The civilization dimensions of Sino-Indian contradictions. The perceptions of victimhood: the Kashmir and the Taiwan issues. How do India and China perceive each other’s policy in South Asia: the offensive vs the defensive narratives.

The specificity of the international dimension of the Afghanistan issue. The importance of tribes in the political life of Afghanistan. The factor of nuclear powers. Afghanistan between the world civilizations. The specificity of Taliban in Afghanistan. Al-Quaeda and associated groups. ISIS (forbidden in Russia) in Afghanistan: can it compete with the indigenous Taliban movement? International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. Resolute Support Mission: aims and accomplishments. US-led efforts: main shortcomings. Regional perceptions of the Afghanistan issue. Factors shaping China’s policy. The specificity of China’s policy: economy versus politics. Afghanistan’s prospects for participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. India’s main goals in Afghanistan and the Pakistani factor. Development projects in Afghanistan: India’s contribution. The Kashmir dimension of India’s policy towards Afghanistan. Pakistan’s priorities and policy in Afghanistan: the rationale for sheltering the Taliban leadership. Afghanistan in Iran’s priorities: the US and the Shiite dimensions. Russia’s primary concerns in Afghanistan: the Central Asian. Russia’s advantages in pursuing its policy. Prospects for Russia-US cooperation in Afghanistan: are they realistic?

The specificity of self-perception (the Indian and the Chinese factors). Bangladesh: a connecting corridor between South Road Initiative: importance and potential challenges. Nepal: the factor of geography. Nepal in the BRI and the Indian factor. Main problems generated by the BRI. The specificity of Bhutan’s relations with China and India. Sino-Indian standoff in summer 2017 and its implications for Bhutan. The Doklam plateau factor and Bhutan’s dilemma. Sri-Lanka and the Maldives: the strategic position and its BRI dimension. China’s and India’s policies towards Sri-Lanka and the Maldives: an interplay of economy and security. Can small island states maintain independence as the Indo-Pacific narrative develops? The Belt and Road Initiative and South Asia: why has economy stumbled on politics? Main reasons and their assessments.