China Dream: Still Coming True?
()
About this ebook
Related to China Dream
Related ebooks
Communists constructing capitalism: State, market, and the Party in China’s financial reform Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5China's New Diplomacy Concept: Building a Community of Shared Future for Mankind Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsXi: A Study in Power Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5China's Capitalism: A Paradoxical Route to Economic Prosperity Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsChina and the World: Global Crisis of Capitalism Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe China Questions: Critical Insights into a Rising Power Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSummary of Elizabeth C. Economy's The World According to China Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsStatecraft and Society in China: Grassroots politics in China Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsHow China's Leaders Think: The Inside Story of China's Past, Current and Future Leaders Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Dragon Roars Back: Transformational Leaders and Dynamics of Chinese Foreign Policy Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Little Yellow Book: Quotations from Chairman Xi Dada (COLLECTOR'S EDITION) Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsOne Road, Many Dreams: China's Bold Plan to Remake the Global Economy Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe politics of everyday China Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsChina Ascendant: Its Rise and Implications Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Xiconomics: What China’s Dual Circulation Strategy Means for Global Business Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsMoney and Might: Along the Belt and Road Initiative Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsChina's Futures: PRC Elites Debate Economics, Politics, and Foreign Policy Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsChina's Reform in the Next Ten Years Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Billions: Selling to the New Chinese Consumer Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5China Perspectives: Insights and Analysis Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5China and the 21st Century Crisis Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsDo We Really Know China?: An Outsider’S View Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsUnderstanding China [3rd Edition]: A Guide to China's Economy, History, and Political Culture Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSummary of Clive Hamilton & Mareike Ohlberg's Hidden Hand Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsAvoiding the Fall: China’s Economic Restructuring Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The China Nightmare: The Grand Ambitions of a Decaying State Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratings
Politics For You
A People's History of the United States Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Devil's Chessboard: Allen Dulles, the CIA, and the Rise of America's Secret Government Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Republic by Plato Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Capitalism and Freedom Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5How to Hide an Empire: A History of the Greater United States Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Madness of Crowds: Gender, Race and Identity Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Fear: Trump in the White House Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5On Palestine Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Cult of Trump: A Leading Cult Expert Explains How the President Uses Mind Control Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5Son of Hamas: A Gripping Account of Terror, Betrayal, Political Intrigue, and Unthinkable Choices Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Ever Wonder Why?: And Other Controversial Essays Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Gaza in Crisis: Reflections on the U.S.-Israeli War on the Palestinians Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Government Gangsters: The Deep State, the Truth, and the Battle for Our Democracy Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Freedom Is a Constant Struggle: Ferguson, Palestine, and the Foundations of a Movement Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Girl with Seven Names: A North Korean Defector’s Story Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Parasitic Mind: How Infectious Ideas Are Killing Common Sense Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Gulag Archipelago [Volume 1]: An Experiment in Literary Investigation Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Unhumans: The Secret History of Communist Revolutions (and How to Crush Them) Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5The U.S. Constitution with The Declaration of Independence and The Articles of Confederation Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Essential Chomsky Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Closing of the American Mind Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Sex Trafficking: Inside the Business of Modern Slavery Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Humanity Archive: Recovering the Soul of Black History from a Whitewashed American Myth Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Killing the SS: The Hunt for the Worst War Criminals in History Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Prince Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Daily Stoic: A Daily Journal On Meditation, Stoicism, Wisdom and Philosophy to Improve Your Life Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5
Reviews for China Dream
0 ratings0 reviews
Book preview
China Dream - A cura di Alessia Amighini
China Dream:
Still Coming True?
Editeb by Alessia Amighini
ISBN 978-88-99647-17-9
ISBN (pdf) 978-88-99647-18-6
ISBN (ePub) 978-88-99647-19-3
ISBN (kindle) 978-88-99647-20-9
©2016 Edizioni Epoké - ISPI
First edition: 2016
Edizioni Epoké. Via N. Bixio, 5
15067, Novi Ligure (AL)
www.edizioniepoke.it
epoke@edizioniepoke.it
ISPI. Via Clerici, 5
20121, Milano
www.ispionline.it
Graphic project and layout: Simone Tedeschi, Edoardo Traverso
I edition.
All Rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
The Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) is an independent think tank dedicated to being a resource for government officials, business executives, journalists, civil servants, students and the public at large wishing to better understand international issues. It monitors geopolitical areas as well as major trends in international affairs.
Founded in Milan in 1934, ISPI is the only Italian Institute – and one of the few in Europe – to place research activities side by side to training, organization of international conferences, and the analysis of the international environment for businesses. Comprehensive interdisciplinary analysis is achieved through close collaboration with experts (academics and non-academics alike) in political, economic, legal, historical and strategic studies and through an ever-growing network of think tanks, research centers and Universities in Europe and beyond.
Contents
Introduction
1. Waking from the China Dream
Filippo Fasulo
2. Beijing’s Economy: Dream a Little Dream of China?
Alessia Amighini
3. Financial Markets: the Pain of Reform Before the Gain
Christopher Balding
4. Chinese Foreign and Security Policies: Dream at Home, Nightmare Abroad?
Axel Berkofsky
5. China’s G20 Presidency: Coming at the Wrong Moment
Andrea E. Goldstein
6. Silk Road Economic Development: Vision and Path
Wang Wen and Jia Jinjing
Conclusions. Implications for the EU
Alessia Amighini
The authors 121
Introduction
At a time when economic tremors in China are rippling through world markets and the country – already the second-biggest military spender in the world – is further increasing military spending at double-digit rates, it is key to assess how far President Xi Jinping has gone in fulfilling the China Dream. One of his main slogans (somehow evoking the American Dream), it spells out a specific doctrine of Beijing’s ascendance to cultural, economic and military prowess by 2049, precisely 100 years after the founding of the People’s Republic of China. As Xi’s plan unfolds, China has already reached a series of symbolic milestones. The yuan’s inclusion in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) made it one of the world’s reserve currencies; a new China-led multilateral institution has been established (the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank - AIIB); China was recognized as a market economy by a number of countries, and it keeps pressing the EU and the US to do the same. Moreover, the China Dream laid the ground for the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, which aims at connecting existing and planned global routes to and from various Chinese provinces. Last but not least, the Chinese 2016 G20 Presidency may prove to be a timely occasion for China to define its role in global economic governance. However, in a context of growing economic and geopolitical headwinds (sluggish economy, aging population, and political opposition), progress on domestic political and economic reforms is lagging behind expectations.
In a nutshell, will Xi be able to fulfill his promises and lead his country to prosperity?
Xi’s policies are meant to deal with the inevitable transformation China has already been going through over the last few years. All the multiple facets of his strategy are directed towards a Chinese renaissance – or, in his words, rejuvenation – that should turn the most populous country in the world back to central stage both at the regional and world level. However, today’s China is still a country ripe with contradictions. Skyscrapers and innovative industries abound along with dramatically poor peripheries and rural areas. Despite greater and greater attention to its international agenda, China is still positioned somewhere between a regional and a global power. Besides, its political system still appears far from concluding its journey from a revolutionary party-led system to a stable and institutionalized structure.
The China Dream raises several questions about China’s political and economic identity in the 21st century. The main is whether China will succeed in developing its own model or have to fully embrace the Western liberal order. In the meantime, China’s international aspirations also seem to have reached a turning point. When Xi Jinping came to power he adopted a more assertive approach that shook up the status quo among international economic governance institutions and scaled up tensions with the United States and most of the countries within the Asia Pacific region, mainly due to maritime disputes. The future evolution of China’s international role will be highly dependent on Xi Jinping’s ability to balance China’s revisionist demands – which, according to the China Dream, are simply requests for recognition of its natural and historical position as a great power – with the inevitable reaction and containment they provoke.
When moving to the domestic level, the main question is whether Xi’s China Dream will turn out to be the country’s dream or his own. Political power struggles are heating up and the General Secretary is facing growing resistance within the Party. He quickly attained the rank of most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping or even Mao Zedong, but he still has to strike a final deal between the interests of the political and economic elites and those of the people, also in light of the rising social costs that the ongoing economic transformation will soon bring about.
Against this background, the purpose of this volume is to highlight the viability and major challenges of the China Dream. The opening chapter by Filippo Fasulo places the spotlight on the genesis of the China Dream and its links to earlier policies in traditional and Communist China. Indeed, Xi Jinping developed the China Dream recalling past policies and putting the narrative of national rejuvenation
at the heart of his agenda. In concrete terms, China should be great again
and, to this aim, economic reforms need to be implemented. Unfortunately, Xi’s reformist agenda implies political costs for economic and political stakeholders at the local and the national levels who are attempting to downsize the reach of the reforms. To contrast this opposition, since the 3rd plenum in 2013, Xi has outlined clear-cut policies: political centralization, implementation of the rule of law, ideological radicalization and a sweeping anti-graft campaign. The China Dream’s middle goal of doubling 2010 GDP per capita by 2020 (thus reaching the status of moderately prosperous society) forces Xi Jinping to achieve substantial economic success in the short term. Should he fail, Xi’s China Dream might be questioned even more.
In Chapter 2, Alessia Amighini points out that, despite artfully evoking the American Dream, the China Dream is rather vague in content, scope and horizons, and therefore purposefully serves Xi’s political objectives without the need for him to actually deliver on specific outcomes. In particular, it provides a powerful slogan to revitalise domestic confidence in the future of the country, at a time when the ongoing rebalancing of the sources of economic growth in China implies a sensible slowdown compared to Hu’s times, and painful restructuring in many sectors and regions. By evoking the American Dream, Xi aims to reassure the country’s new middle class that China will eventually be able to achieve prosperity, but economic growth has been and will continue to be slower under his leadership, and structural reforms are lagging behind, in the financial sector and in State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) as well. As the author puts it: the new middle class might have to dream a smaller dream of China than what Xi has evoked so far.
The urgent need for reforms in the financial system is Cristopher Balding’s main focus in Chapter 3. A rising dependence on debt is evidence that financial reforms are stuck in the backrooms of decision-makers in Beijing. The current domestic financial system, marked by an underdeveloped banking industry, is holding back the economic transition needed for achieving the China Dream. The renminbi is a decisive issue too, but its full liberalization – planned for completion by 2020, when the China Dream will ostensibly have led to a moderately prosperous society – is a risky undertaking that might threaten a fragile financial system.
When it comes to the foreign and security field, China’s changing approach to the regional context might transform the China Dream into a nightmare in disguise for many Asia-Pacific countries. In chapter 4, Axel Berkofsky warns against the contradiction between the China Dream as a peaceful concept and the escalation of its territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. Since Xi Jinping came to power, China replaced its Hide and Bide
strategy – adopted since Deng Xiaoping’s leadership – in favor of a more proactive stance. The China Dream and its global reach are questioning the traditional Chinese non-interference
policy due to Beijing’s rising political and economic interests abroad. It remains to be seen if China will eventually be a revisionist power of a global order or will adapt to the current status quo.
So, the Chinese Presidency of the G20 comes at a sensitive moment, as Andrea Goldstein explains in Chapter 5. China’s hosting of the summit is the recognition of the greater role that China is playing in global governance. At home, the G20 might be helpful in escorting China along its multiple transitions (e.g. domestic demand instead of exports, consumption instead of fixed capital formation, services instead of manufacturing, private business instead of state-owned enterprises, innovation instead of capital accumulation). Moreover, at the international level, it also helps China strengthening relations with other emerging economies and promoting IMF reforms. Nonetheless, cooperation among G20 leaders is a prerequisite to achieving sustained and sustainable growth and ultimately Beijing’s success in chairing the G20 Summit will depend on its ability and willingness to bridge Western economic powers and emerging economies.
The last chapter by Wang Wen and Jia Jinjing focuses on a key Chinese undertaking, whose impact may be anything but negligible for both Beijing and the rest