“It doesn’t really snow here.” This is a statement you’ll often hear from residents of the more temperate areas of the country. Through previous experiences, they’ve been conditioned to expect a typical range of seasonal weather conditions. Occasionally, there may be a heat wave or cold snap that pushes temperatures slightly outside the norm, but these events rarely do more than make locals a bit uncomfortable for a few days. At worst, there might be a dusting of snow in the deep of winter on rare occasions, leading to traffic jams and school closures, but it fades away quickly, and life goes on. This cycle can lead to a condition psychologists call normalcy bias — the tendency to expect that events will always happen the way they’ve happened in the past. Normalcy bias is one of the greatest enemies of preparedness, since it causes us to underestimate the likelihood and destructive power of a disaster that doesn’t fall in line with previously observed historical patterns.
For one example of this phenomenon in action, look no further than the Great Texas Freeze of February 2021. The National Weather Service described it as a “brutal and enduring cold that enveloped the entire state of Texas,” and it marked the coldest winter storm since 1989 — far enough in the past that many Texans had no memory of a winter so harsh. With nearly nine days of freezing temperatures throughout much of the state, it was also the longest freezing streak in Texas’ recorded history. The impact was disastrous. A total of 246 deaths were attributed to the storm, the majority of which were a result of hypothermia. Power outages affected nearly 10 million people. Grocery store shelves were picked bare. Iced roads became impassable in cities and caused fatal pileups on highways. Pipes burst in homes and municipal infrastructure, causing many counties to advise residents to boil their water before drinking it. More than $1 billion in damages were caused by the Great Freeze.
So, how can you prepare for a deep freeze of this magnitude if you live in an area where it’s practically unheard of? Even if your household is ready, will you be able to cope with the widespread impact of infrastructure and roads shutting down for weeks? We asked cold weather survival instructor Jerry Saunders and search-and-rescue training officer Patrick Diedrich to share their thoughts on how to approach this chilling scenario.
The Scenario
SITUATION TYPE
Unexpected deep freeze
YOUR CREW
Yourself, your wife, two children (ages 2 and 6), and your mother-in-law (age 77)
LOCATION
Southern Arizona
SEASON
Winter
WEATHER
Snow and freezing rain; high 25 degrees F, low 3 degrees F
The Setup
Your family lives in Sahuarita, Arizona, about 30 minutes south of downtown Tucson. You’ve resided here your entire life, and your wife grew up in Florida, so neither one of you has much experience dealing with cold weather. You have two kids — a toddler and a 6-year-old — as well as your wife’s elderly mother, Lynn, living at the house. Lynn has had chronic health problems recently, so she takes several medications and needs help with daily tasks. As a result of caring for her and the kids, your wife hasn’t been able to work, and money has been especially tight lately.
The Complication
About a week ago, news stations
