Sir David Spiegelhalter has been Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge since October 2007. His background is in medical statistics, with an emphasis on Bayesian methods: his MRC team developed the BUGS software which has become the primary platform for applying modern Bayesian analysis using simulation technology. He has worked on clinical trials and drug safety and consulted and taught in a number of pharmaceutical companies, and also collaborates on developing methods for health technology assessment applicable to organisations such as NICE. His interest in performance monitoring led to his being asked to lead the statistical team in the Bristol Royal Inf irmary Inquiry, and he also gave evidence to the Shipman Inquiry. In his post he leads a small team which attempts to improve the way in which the quantitative aspects of risk and uncertainty are discussed in society. He works closely with the Millennium Mathematics Project in trying to bring risk and uncertainty into education, gives many presentations to schools and others, advises organisations on risk communication, and is a regular newspaper columnist on current risk issues. Sir Spiegelhalter is Chairman at The Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, a Fellow at Churchill College Cambridge, and Associate Fellow of the Centre for Science and Policy. He was elected FRS in 2005 and awarded an OBE in 2006 for services to medical statistics. He received a knighthood in the Queen’s Birthday Honours List in 2014 for services to statistics.
Zan Boag: You said that one regret in your life that you hadn’t taken enough risks, that you’d been too cautious in your career and in your travels. You say, “I wish I’d done more adventurous things.” What part do you think that your job played in being cautious and not taking more risks? Or is this simply a regret that most of us are likely to have as we get older?
Sir David Spiegelhalter: I don’t think my job has hugely influenced my attitude to risk, it’s much more that my personality has led me to my particular job, and it’s also led me to
