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Technical Note: The Financial Forecast Center has moved away from publishing standard deviations of the forecast's performance in recognition that the distribution of value movements in the financial markets follow Levy or Cauchy distributions, not Gaussian or normal distributions. Likewise, the forecast model's errors follow similar distributions. A Gaussian distribution significantly underestimates the probability of a large price or rate movement. A Gaussian distribution may underestimate the probabilty of a 3 sigma price movement by a factor of 10. In other words, the chance of a 3 sigma movement is potentially 10 times greater than that predicted by a Gaussian probability curve. The above change in error reporting enables a more accurate depiction of a forecast model's potential performance.
M. Hossen, M. Faiad, M. Chowdhury, and M. Islam. International Journal of Computer Science & Information Technology (IJCSIT), 10 (1):
95 - 105(February 2018)