Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Vol. 2, No. 3, 1986 The (Surprising) Stability of Youth Crime Rates Philip J. Cook I and John H. Laub 2 Despite the profound demographic and socioeconomic changes characterizing family life in recent years, youth crime rates have remained more or less constant since 1971. This finding is of interest given the intense public concern regarding the welfare of children. It also serves as a convenient basis for projecting the future volume of youth crime. KEY WORDS: crime rates; juvenile crime; projections. 1. I N T R O D U C T I O N This is a t i m e o f i n t e n s e c o n c e r n a b o u t the welfare o f children. The n u c l e a r f a m i l y , w h i c h has b e e n the p r i m a r y social institution for e d u c a t i n g , socializing, controlling, a n d p r o v i d i n g for c h i l d r e n , is on the d e c l i n e ( M o y n i h a n , 1986). T r e n d s in illegitimacy, divorce, female l a b o r - f o r c e part i c i p a t i o n , a n d p a r e n t a l attitudes i n d i c a t e the d i m e n s i o n s o f this decline. U h l e n b e r g a n d E g g e b e e n (1986) c o n c l u d e t h a t these t r e n d s constitute " a d e c l i n i n g c o m m i t m e n t o f p a r e n t s to their c h i l d r e n over the p a s t several d e c a d e s " (p. 35). T h e y suggest that this c h a n g e in the q u a l i t y a n d q u a n t i t y o f p a r e n t i n g m a y a c c o u n t for the r a p i d i n c r e a s e in d e l i n q u e n c y rates a n d o t h e r t r o u b l i n g t r e n d s in y o u t h b e h a v i o r that t h e y say o c c u r r e d t h r o u g h o u t the p e r i o d 1960-1980 (p. 32). 3 ~Departments of Public Policy Studies and Economics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27706. 2College of Criminal Justice, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115. 3Uhlenberg and Eggebeen (1986) used the court disposition rate as their measure of youth crime. We favor the arrest rate on the grounds that it is less affected by changes in juvenile justice policy. The juvenile court disposition rate increased almost 50% between 1970 and 1980 for youths aged 10-17 years; the arrest rate increased only 7%. 265 0748-4518/86/0900-0265505.00/0 9 1986 Plenum Publishing Corporation 266 Cook and Laub In this paper we provide further documentation of the decline in family life, which has indeed been dramatic in recent years. But our measures of youthful crime rates point to a quite surprising conclusion--namely, that these rates have remained nearly constant in recent years. The arrest rate per 1000 youths aged 13-17 years was the same in 1983 as in 1970, with a negligible variance in the interim. This long plateau in youthful crime rates is interesting precisely because it has occurred during a time of great demographic and socioeconomic shifts that we might reasonably expect would influence every aspect of youthful behavior, including crime involvement. It is also interesting in the more mundane context of projecting future youth crime rates. We explore both of these interests in what follows. 2. TRENDS IN YOUTH CRIME Table I exhibits arrest rates for the age group 13-17 years, the group Table I. Arrest Rates for Youths Aged 13-17 Years per 1000 Population, 1965-1983 ~ Year Total arrests Total index crime arrests b'c Property index crime arrests b Violent index crime arrests c 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 73.5 74.6 82.3 89.5 93.6 97.4 101.9 98.1 97.5 111.3 103.9 102.0 101.5 106.9 106.8 101.0 102.4 108.0 97.9 26.9 26.8 28.7 30.1 31.8 33.2 34.8 33.5 34.1 42.5 40.0 37.9 37.5 39.7 39.8 38.2 37.3 38.2 35.7 24.8 24.5 26.1 27.3 28.6 29.9 31.1 29.7 30.2 38.0 35.5 33.8 33.6 35.1 35.4 33.7 32.8 33.5 31.3 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.6 4.4 4.0 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.4 ~Source: Arrest statistics compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, adjusted for population coverage of reporting units. See footnote 4 for additional information. blncludes arson, auto theft, burglary, and larceny. Clncludes aggravated assault, murder and nonnegligent homicide, rape, and robbery. 267 Stability of Youth Crime Rates that is responsible for the great bulk of youth crime for the years 1965-1983. 4 Their overall arrest rate exceeded 100 per 1000 for most of the years since 1971. About 37% of these arrests have been for the "Index" crimes of violence (criminal homicide, aggravated assault, robbery, rape) and against property (burglary, auto theft, larceny, arson). These two arrest rate series are displayed in Fig. 1. The overall arrest rate for youths aged 10-17 years are also included for the sake of comparison. The most notable thing about all these series is their low variance since 1971. 110: ~~*~~AToto ]00- I ge13-17 90- o o o 8070- ~ A Totolge 10 17 605040- ~ Index Age]3-17 3020 65 70 75 YEAR 80 Fig. 1. Youth arrest rates per 1000 population, 1965-1983. (Arrest statistics compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, adjusted for population coverage of reporting units. See footnote 4 for additional information.) 4The arrest rates were adjusted to take into account the varying population coverage in the Uniform Crime Reports over the 1965 to 1983 period. Comparing the population coverage reported in the U C R annual reports with the U.S. Bureau of the Census population counts, the U C R coverage ranges from about 70 to 92% of the U.S. population over the time period in question. In order to use these U C R data, the arrest rates were adjusted each year to correct for undercoverage of the U.S. population. For more information on adjustment factors see Smith et aL (1980, pp. 304-306). Moreover, in 1979, arson was reclassified as an Index crime. For the sake of comparability, the U C R data reported here include arson in the total Index crime category as well as in the property Index crime category for each year throughout the 1965 to 1983 series. Similarly, in 1978, the category "manslaughter by negligence" was removed from the U C R reports. For the sake of comparability, the U C R data reported here exclude manslaughter by negligence arrests for the years 1965 to 1977. Cook and Laub 268 Table II. Descriptive Statistics for Youth Arrest Rates, 1971-1983 Total arrests/1000 for ages 13-17 Mean SD Total index arrests/ i000 for ages 13-17 Total arrests/1000 for ages 10-17 1971-1983 1975-1983 1971-1983 1975-1983 1971-1983 1975-1983 103.0 4.2 103.4 3.3 37.6 2.6 38.3 1.4 71.3 3.1 72.0 2.2 As s h o w n in T a b l e II, t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n f o r e a c h o f t h e t h r e e a r r e s t r a t e series was less t h a n 4 % o f t h e m e a n . E x t e n d i n g t h e s e series b a c k to i n c l u d e t h e 13 y e a r s 1 9 7 1 - 1 9 8 3 d o e s i n c r e a s e t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s s o m e w h a t b u t has little effect o n t h e m e a n s . I n t e r e s t i n g l y , this s t a b i l i t y in arrest rates f o r y o u t h s has b e e n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a r a t h e r s h a r p r e d u c t i o n in t h e i r r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e in t h e o v e r a l l c r i m e p i c t u r e . As s h o w n in T a b l e I I I , v i o l e n c e arrests o f y o u t h s u n d e r 18 y e a r s d r o p p e d f r o m o v e r 2 3 % o f t h e t o t a l in 1975 to 17% in 1983. P r o p e r t y c r i m e arrests f o r y o u t h s d r o p p e d f r o m o v e r 5 0 % o f t h e t o t a l to 3 4 % (in Table III. Arrests for Children Under 18 Years (UCR Data) Percentage of Year All arrests Index crime arrests Violent index crime arrests Property index crime arrests 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 21.4 22.9 24.3 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.8 25.6 26.4 27.2 25.9 24.9 24.0 23.3 22.5 20.9 19.8 17.9 16.8 48.8 49.5 49.1 48.9 47.8 46.2 45.4 44.6 44.8 45.2 43.2 41.6 41.3 40.5 38.8 35.9 33.5 30.9 30.4 19.7 20.4 21.3 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.8 22.6 22.7 22.6 23.1 22.0 21.0 21.4 20.1 19.3 18.5 17.2 16.8 55.2 56.5 55.7 55.3 54.1 51.8 50.9 50.6 50.9 50.8 48.1 46.2 46.3 45.5 43.5 40.2 37.4 34.5 33.9 Stability of Youth Crime Rates 269 1983). This decline is a c o n s e q u e n c e o f the large b a b y - b o o m cohorts aging out of the j u v e n i l e - c o u r t j u r i s d i c t i o n . The result is that the j u v e n i l e justice system is r e s p o n s i b l e for a s o m e w h a t s m a l l e r piece o f the crime p r o b l e m in the mid-1980s t h a n it was in the 1960s a n d early 1970s. A final i n t e r t e m p o r a l p a t t e r n of some interest is the relative arrest rates for Black a n d White youths, as s h o w n in T a b l e IV. The Black arrest rate for I n d e x crimes has b e e n several times as high as the white arrest rate t h r o u g h o u t this period. This difference p e a k e d circa 1970, with a B l a c k / W h i t e ratio of a b o u t 3.0 for property crimes a n d over 11.0 for v i o l e n t crimes. Since 1975 those ratios have b e e n relatively c o n s t a n t at a b o u t 2.2 a n d 6.5, respectively. It s h o u l d be a c k n o w l e d g e d that arrest t r e n d s are n o t necessarily reliable i n d i c a t o r s of the u n d e r l y i n g trends in j u v e n i l e crime rates. The l i k e l i h o o d that a crime will result i n a recorded arrest d e p e n d s o n a n u m b e r of f a c t o r s - - t h e p r o p e n s i t y of victims to report crimes to the police a n d request that the police i n t e r v e n e formally if there is a k n o w n suspect, the police Table IV. Ratios of Black Arrest Rates to White Arrest Rates for Youths Aged Less than 18 years (UCR Data) ~ Year All index crimes Property crimes Violent crimes 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 10.4 9.8 11.1 10.4 11.4 11.1 11.4 10.4 8.5 7.8 6~6 6.6 6.0 6.6 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.7 aEach entry is the ratio of the Black arrest rate per capita to the White arrest rate per capita for youths 17 years or younger. 270 Cook and Laub department's standard operating procedure for dealing with juvenile suspects, and so forth. If the likelihood that a crime results in arrest changes over time, then to that extent the arrest trend misrepresents the underlying trend in juvenile crime. 5 But it is reassuring that estimates of the volume of juvenile crime for the period 1973-1981, generated from National Crime Survey data, are quite compatible with the arrest trends reported above (Laub, 1983). 6 To summarize, the annual statistics on juvenile arrests changed rapidly during the period 1965-1971 and have been relatively static since then. This characterization applies to overall arrest rates and arrest rates for both property and violent Index crimes. If it is reasonable to project that the arrest rate "plateau" will continue for another decade, then predicting the volume of juvenile arrests for 1995 is simply a matter of multiplying the projected juvenile population in that year by the plateau value of the arrest rate. 3. TRENDS IN FAMILY C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S Juvenile arrest rates per 1000 have not varied much since the early 1970s. Our best guess for the juvenile arrest rate in 1995 and beyond is that it will remain on the~same "plateau" as in recent years, simply because we have no strong reason for thinking it will move either up or down. This section considers and rejects one possible argument for suggesting that juvenile crime and arrest rates will in fact increase during the next decade: the continuing decline in the stability and resources provided children by their parents. It seems only common sense that children will be less prone to delinquency if they are raised in a stable home environment providing a high level of adult supervision, guidance, and support than otherwise. 7 Indeed, it has long been known that a disproportionate number of delinquents are from single-parent a n d / o r low-income households. This observation suggests that the increase in the proportion of children raised in households 5For a general discussion of police arrest statistics, see Sherman and Glick (1984). 6Self-reported delinquency data from the National Youth Surveyalso show a generally stable pattern for the period for which they are available, 1975-1980. See Elliott et al. (1983) for details. ' 7For an interesting analysis of changes in routine activity patterns of youth with implications for informal social control mechanisms, see Felson and Gottfredson (1984). Wilson and Herrnstein (1985, Chap. 9) review a number of studies relevant to the question of whether the absence of a father in the family is criminogenic. The evidence is not clear-cut, due in part to the difficulty of deciding what is the relevant control group for children raised by their mothers. Stability of Youth Crime Rates 271 that lack the parenting and economic resources of the "traditional" middleclass nuclear family will lead to a corresponding increase in youthful involvement in crime. As far as we can tell from the available data, this increase has not occurred, at least for the period since 1970. There are various indicators of the decline of the nuclear family. First is the fraction of births that are out of wedlock (see Table V). This fraction stood at 4.5% for the 1955 cohort, which reached its most active delinquent phase in 1970-1971. The 1965-1967 cohorts, which reached their most active phase in the early 1980s, included nearly twice this percentage of illegitimate births. (The non-White illegitimacy percentage is much higher than the White percentage ~nd increased from 20 to 30% between 1955 and 1967.) The period since 1970 has also been characterized by a gradual decline in the percentage of children living with two parents (see Table VI). For all children, this percentage dropped from 85 to 75 between 1970 and 1982; for Black children, the percentage dropped from 58 to 42. During this same period the percentage of children with mothers in the labor force increased from 39 to 55. These indicators suggest a substantial decline in the percentage of children raised to adulthood by both natural parents and an increased percentage of children who were sharing their mother's time and energy Table V. Trends in Out-of-Wedlock Births and Births to Young Women a Out-of-Wedlock Births as a percentage of all births Year Total White Non-White Black 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 3.9 4.5 5.3 7.7 10.7 13.0 13.2 14.2 14.8 15,5 16.3 17.1 18.4 18.9 19.4 1.7 2.1 2.7 4.0 5.7 6.4 6.5 7.3 7,7 8.2 8.7 9.4 11,0 11.6 12.1 16.8 19.4 21.6 26.3 34.9 41.7 42.7 44.2 45.2 46.5 47.6 48.8 48.4 48.5 48.8 ----37.6 45.8 47.1 48.8 50.3 51.7 53.2 54.6 55.2 56.0 56.7 Births to women unde r 20 as a percentage of all births 12.1 12.2 14.0 15.9 17.6 19.7 19.2 18.9 18.0 17.2 16.6 16.0 aSource: National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Vital Statistics of the U.S. 1980, Vol. 1. Natality and unpublished data from NCHS. 272 Cook and Laub Table VI. Percentage o f Children Under 18 Years Living with Both Parents and Percentage with Mothers in the Labor Force a Percentage living with both parents Year Total White Black Percentage with mothers in labor force 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 85 83 83 82 81 80 80 79 78 77 77 76 75 75 75 89 88 88 87 87 85 85 85 84 84 83 82 81 81 81 58 54 54 52 51 49 50 47 44 43 42 43 42 41 41 39 39 40 41 42 44 46 48 50 52 53 54 55 55 56 ~Sources: (1) StatisticalAbstract of the U.S., 1982-83, Table 76; (2) U.S. Bureau of the Census Current Population Reports, P 20, No. 389 (1984), "Marital Status and Living Arrangements: March 1983"; (3) Bureau of Labor Statistics, Handbook of Labor Statistics. with her job. And despite this increase in labor-force participation by mothers, the percentage of children living in poor households increased somewhat between 1980 and 1983 (see Table VII). In looking ahead to 1995, we know that the youths in the age group of greatest delinquent activity (13-17 years) will be members of birth cohorts characterized by unprecedented rates of illegitimacy--for Black youths, the fraction is over half. This and the related trends discussed above are troublesome for a number of reasons, but recent history gives no support for the notion that this continued deterioration in the nuclear family will necessarily lead to an increase in delinquency. 8 There is something of a sociological mystery here. We believe that the home is the primary site for "civilizing" children and that the amount and quality of effort devoted by parents to this task appear to be declining on the average [see also Felson and Gottfredson (1984) and Uhlenberg and Eggebeen (1986)]. Since there is no evidence of an increase in "uncivilized" SOne particularly encouraging trend is the reduction in the prevalence of drug use by highschool seniors since 1978 (Flanagan and Brown, 1984, p. 360; personal communication with Lloyd Johnston, May 3, 1985). Stability of Youth Crime Rates 273 Table VII. Percentage of Children Under 18 Years Living in Poverty~ Year Total White Black 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 20 17 16 15 14 15 15 15 14 15 17 16 16 16 16 18 20 21 22 14 12 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 11 13 11 11 11 11 13 15 17 17 -5I 47 43 40 42 41 43 41 40 41 40 42 41 41 42 45 47 46 a Source: u.s. Bureau of the Census Current Population Reports, Series P 60, No. 145 (1984), "Money Income and Poverty Status of Families and Persons in the U.S.: 1983." (criminal) b e h a v i o r by y o u t h s in recent years, we are e n c o u r a g e d to search for c o m p e n s a t i n g trends in o t h e r institutions that c o n t r i b u t e to the civilizing process. But this p a p e r is n o t the right c o n t e x t in w h i ch to l a u n c h such a search. F o r now, we s i m p l y note the t r e n d in o n e i n d i c a t o r that m a y be r e l e v a n t - - t h e ratio o f adults ( a g e d 18-65 years) to c h i l d r e n (aged 10-17 years). As s h o w n in T a b l e V I I I , this ratio has i n c r e a s e d steadily since 1970 a n d will c o n t i n u e u p w a r d till the 1990s. To the extent that o t h e r adults s u p p l e m e n t p a r e n t s ' efforts to g u id e y o u t h f u l b e h a v i o r , t h e n this ratio i nd i cat es an increase in society's capacity in this respect. Th e a d u l t - c h i l d ratio m a y also have an i n d i r e c t influence on y o u t h f u l b e h a v i o r t h r o u g h its effect on p o p u l a r culture, the political process, a n d the t o l e r a n c e g e n e r a l l y a c c o r d e d y o u t h f u l m i s b e h a v i o r . J a m e s Q. W i l s o n gives a related e x p l a n a t i o n for the c r i m e b o o m o f the 1960s: Since the 1960s, an increase in the proportion of young persons in the population has been met by the celebration of the youth culture in the marketplace, in the churches, and among adults .... This institutionalization in all parts of society 274 Cook and Laub Table VIII. Trends in the Adult-Child Population Ratio s Ratio of Year Adults (18-64) to children (10-17) White adults (18-64) to White children (10-17) Black adulfs-(18-64) to Black children (10-17) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 3.57 3.55 3.52 3.51 3.50 3.49 3.51 3.55 3.60 3.66 3.76 3.89 4.03 4.19 4.38 4.50 4.64 4.83 5.01 3.68 3.67 3.64 3.62 3.61 3.62 3.65 3.69 3.75 3.81 3.92 4.06 4.22 4.39 4.58 4.70 4.85 5.04 5.23 2.80 2.75 2.70 2.67 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.69 2.72 2.76 2.82 2.90 3.01 3.12 3.26 3.39 3.51 3.68 3.84 1985 1990 1995 2000 5.30 5.79 5.43 5.34 Projections 5.53 6.03 5.68 5.57 4.16 4.67 4.26 4.15 ~Source: Various U.S. Bureau of the Census population reports and U.S. Bureau of the Census Current Population Reports, Series P 25, No. 952 (1984), "Projections of the Population of the United States by Age, Sex, and Race: 1983-2080", Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. of the national desire of youth for greater freedom may well have given legitimacy to all forms of self-expression--including, alas, those forms that involve crime and violence--and thus helped magnify and sustain what would have been a crime increase in any event. (1983, p. 38) B y s y m m e t r y , it is p l a u s i b l e t h a t t h e m o r e r e c e n t decline i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n of young persons in the population may be causing a drift away from "the youth culture." O u r p o s i t i o n , t h e n , is t h a t t h e l o n g p l a t e a u i n j u v e n i l e a r r e s t r a t e s is the result of opposing trends in powerful etiological factors that have (by Stability of Youth Crime Rates 275 chance?) balanced each other for more than a decade. The future course of some of the demographic factors is quite predictable, but we have no reliable way of projecting their net influence on delinquency rates. In the interest of making some concrete projections, we assume that the "balance of forces" will continue. 9 But that assumption may prove wrong by a wide margin. 4. I M P L I C A T I O N S FOR T H E FUTURE Approximately 85% of arrests of youths under 18 years involve teenagers aged 13-17. This is the group of primary concern in projecting the future crime. The size of this group peaked in 1974 and has declined steadily since. By 1990 it will be 5 million less than in 1974 (a 23% reduction) but will increase thereafter through the year 2000 (see Table IX). Since Black youths have an arrest rate more than double that of White youths, it is of some interest to note that the trend in the Black youth population is highly correlated with that in the White population. Blacks made up 13.7% of the population aged 13-17 years in 1975: this percentage increased slightly, to 14.7%, in 1985 and will be about 15.5% in 1995. Because there is so little change in racial population composition over this period, we ignore race in what follows. One scenario is that arrest rates (both total and Index) in future years will be the same as in recent years. Given the assumption that juvenile arrest rates will remain at the same level through the year 2000, the number of juvenile arrests can be projected, based entirely on census projections of the future population of youths aged 13-17 years (see Table X). These projections are meant to apply to total arrests as well as Index arrests. The underlying volume of serious juvenile crime should also follow this pattern. We believe that the confidence intervals around these projections should be quite broad due to uncertainty about future arrest rates. (Relatively speaking, there is very little uncertainty about the size of the future populations.) For an historical precedent for the possibility of large changes, note that the Index juvenile arrest rate increased by 30% between 1966 and 1971. The possibility of a swing of this magnitude (in either direction) during the next few years cannot be ruled o_ut. At this point, we cannot provide a convincing explanation for the long plateau in youth crime rates. The number of possible explanations vastly exceeds the number of data points during the 13-year period. But we believe that the plateau is a fact, and an intriguing one, given the major demographic and socioeconomic changes that have occurred since 1970. It seems safe to 9For other recent efforts to project delinquency rates, see Blumstein et al. (1980), Fox (1978), Klepinger and Weis (1985), Cohen et al. (1980), and Easterlin (t978). 276 Cook and Laub Table IX. Trends in the Population Aged 13-17 Years a Millions Year Total White Black 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.1 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.1 21.0 20.8 20.5 19.9 19.8 19.1 18.6 18.4 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.6 17.8 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.2 16.6 16.4 15.8 15.3 15.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 Projections 1985 1990 1995 2000 18.1 16.2 17.8 19.3 14,9 13.2 14.3 15,4 2.7 2.4 2.8 3.2 aSource: See Table VIII, Footnote a. Table X. Projected Change in Number of Juvenile Arrests Period Percentage change 1985-1990 1985-1995 1985-2000 -10 -2 +6 Stability of Youth Crime Rates 277 p r e d i c t t h a t t h e q u a l i t y o f f a m i l y life will c o n t i n u e to d e t e r i o r a t e . W i l l y o u t h c r i m e rates r e m a i n i m m u n e to this d e t e r i o r a t i o n ? ACKNOWLEDGMENTS A l o n g e r v e r s i o n o f this p a p e r was c o m m i s s i o n e d b y t h e H a r v a r d E x e c u t i v e S e s s i o n o n J u v e n i l e J u s t i c e a n d was s p o n s o r e d in p a r t b y t h e Office o f J u v e n i l e J u s t i c e a n d D e l i n q u e n c y P r e v e n t i o n . T h e a u t h o r s w i s h to t h a n k M a r k M o o r e f o r h e l p i n g to o r g a n i z e this r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t a n d set it o n a p r o d u c t i v e track. REFERENCES Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., and Miller, H. D. (1980). Demographically disaggregated projections of prison populations. J. Crim. Just. 8: 1-26. Cohen, L. E., Felson, M., and Land, K. C. (1980). Property crime rates in the United States: A macrodynamic analysis, 1947-1977; With ex ante forecasts for the mid-1980's. Am. J. Sociol. 86: 90-118. Easterlin, R. A. (1978). What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure. Demography 15: 397-421. 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