The Trouble with
Lithium 2
Under the Microscope
Meridian International Research
Les Legers
27210 Martainville
France
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Fax: +33 2 32 41 39 98
29th May 2008
Copyright Meridian International Research, 2008. All
rights reserved.
Contents
1
Executive Summary 1
2
Current Production Resources 3
The Lithium Triangle
Salar de Atacama
Geological Structure
Conclusion 10
3
4
5
Salar de Hombre Muerto
11
Salar de Uyuni 11
Geological Structure 13
Production Potential 14
Environmental Factors 15
Conclusion 16
Salar del Rincon 17
Other Brine Resources 20
Clayton Valley 20
China 20
Salar del Olaroz 21
Mineral Resources 21
Western Australia - Greenbushes 21
North Carolina 22
Other Producing Resources 23
Zimbabwe 23
Russian Federation 23
Portugal 24
Canada 24
Brazil 24
Conclusion
24
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Contents
3
Future Potential Resources
Introduction
25
25
Mineral Resources
25
Osterbotten, Finland 25
China, Jiajika 26
Democratic Republic of the Congo (Zaire) 26
Hectorite Clays 26
Brines
27
Searles Lake 27
Great Salt Lake 28
Salton Sea 28
Smackover Oilfield Brines, Arkansas 32
Bonneville Salt Flats, Utah 33
Dead Sea 34
Other Chilean/ Argentinian/ Bolivian Salars 34
China 35
Seawater
4
35
Production and Market Factors 39
Introduction
39
Lithium Carbonate Production
40
China 41
Other Areas 41
Current Lithium Market Factors
42
Existing Market Demand 42
Market Projection Scenarios 43
Production of Battery Grade (99.95%) Lithium Carbonate
Production Factors 46
Battery Recycling 47
Conclusion
5
48
The Wider Environment 49
Geopolitical Environment 49
Nuclear Fusion 51
Environmental and Ecological
Factors 52
6
ii
Conclusion 53
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1
Executive Summary
This report analyses recently published1 revisions to Lithium Reserves,
analyses realistic Lithium Carbonate production potential from existing
and future Lithium resources and discusses major factors of increasing
importance in the development of future Lithium production for the
Automotive Industry.
Our main conclusions are as follows:
1. This report confirms our previous assessment2 that realistically
achievable Lithium Carbonate production will be sufficient for only a
small fraction of future PHEV and EV global market requirements, that
demand from the portable electronics sector will absorb much of the
planned production increases in the next decade and that other battery
technologies that use unconstrained resources should be developed for
the mass automotive market.
2. This report shows that the major economically recoverable Lithium Brine
Reserves are lower than previously estimated at only 4 million tonnes of
Lithium.
3. This report confirms that mass production of Lithium Carbonate is not
environmentally sound, it will cause irreparable ecological damage to
ecosystems that should be protected and that LiIon propulsion is
incompatible with the notion of the “Green Car”.
4. This report confirms that the highly focused geographical concentration
of Lithium production will exacerbate the already strained geopolitical
relations between Latin America and the USA.
The recent paper “An Abundance of Lithium” catalogues numerous
Lithium deposits. It includes a wide spectrum of deposits in which the
concentration of Lithium varies from a low of 8 ppm to 3,000 ppm or
more in some parts of the Andes. Total Global Lithium Reserves of 28
million tonnes are postulated in comparison with a Reserve Base
estimated by the USGS to be 11 million tonnes.
1. An Abundance of Lithium, Whitepaper, RK Evans, 2008
2. The Trouble with Lithium: Implications of Future PHEV Production for Lithium
Demand, MIR, 2006.
Meridian International Research 2008
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Executive Summary
The document is not useful for the industrial and strategic planning
purposes of the battery and automotive industries. It confounds
geological Lithium deposits of all grades and types with economically
viable Reserves that can be realistically exploited and relied upon as a
dependable source of sustainable supply by the mass production scale
of the automotive industry. Many of the deposits catalogued cannot be
considered to be actual or potential Lithium Reserves. They would have
higher production costs and lower production rates than the South
American and Chinese brine deposits, coupled with unproven and
heretofore undeveloped processes.
All such nebulous resources were excluded from our previous analysis
“The Trouble with Lithium” for these reasons. In fact, more thorough
consideration of the Salar de Atacama and Salar de Uyuni show that
global recoverable Lithium reserves are only in the order of 4 million
tonnes.
We cite the opening lines of the Handbook of Lithium and Natural
Calcium by Donald Garrett3:
“Lithium is a comparatively rare element, although it is found in many
rocks and some brines, but always in very low concentrations. There
are a fairly large number of both lithium mineral and brine deposits but
only comparatively a few of them are of actual or potential commercial
value. Many are very small, others are too low in grade”.
This statement summarises the nature of Lithium deposits. A simple
catalogue of geological Lithium deposits cannot be used to estimate
realistic potential and achievable Lithium production. In the present
report, we analyse the main Lithium Reserves, Reserve Bases as well
as the major deposits that are not of economic value to illustrate the
potential Lithium Carbonate production that could realistically be
expected over the next 12 years.
It is our conclusion that total Chemical Grade Lithium Carbonate
production is unlikely to exceed 200,000 tonnes per year before 2015.
Production of high purity (99.95%) Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate as
required for Electric Vehicles will be significantly lower.
If existing demand from the portable electronics sector for 99.95%
Lithium Carbonate continues to grow at the current rate of 25% per
annum, by 2015 if optimum production increases occur, there will be
only 30,000 tonnes of Chemical Grade Lithium Carbonate available to
the Automotive Industry (including from Chinese sources). This would
be sufficient for less than 1.5 million GM Volt type vehicles worldwide.
3. Handbook of Lithium and Natural Calcium, Donald E. Garrett, Academic Press,
2004
2
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Current Production
Resources
2.1
The Lithium Triangle
Some 70 percent of the world’s economic Lithium deposits (Reserve
Base) are found in one small location on the Earth - the Lithium Triangle
where the borders of Chile, Bolivia and Argentina meet. It is bounded by
the 3 Salars of the Salar de Atacama, the Salar de Uyuni and the Salar
de Hombre Muerto.
FIGURE 1
THE LITHIUM TRIANGLE
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Current Production Resources
The Lithium Triangle has sides of approximately 360km, 280km and
560km in length. Within this tiny area is located over 70% of the world’s
Lithium Resources. Exports from all three countries will pass through
the Chilean port of Antofagasta. The cities of Potosi, Salta and
Antofagasta will become the tri-partite Lithium capitals of the world if the
automotive industry attempts to base its forthcoming propulsion
revolution on LiIon battery technology alone.
2.2
Salar de Atacama
The Salar de Atacama is the highest quality Lithium deposit in the world.
As a brine source, extraction is much less expensive and less energy
intensive than from hard rock minerals. The concentration of Lithium in
the brine is the highest in the world and the rate of natural evaporation in
the Atacama Desert is the highest in the world. In absolute size the
Salar de Atacama is the second largest single deposit but is the largest
deposit, larger than the Salar de Uyuni, in terms of its economically
recoverable Lithium content.
FIGURE 2
SALAR DE ATACAMA
In 1978, the Lithium content (Reserve Base) of the Salar de Atacama
was estimated to be 2.2MT to 60m depth4. The USGS estimate the
Lithium Reserve Base in the Salar to be 3MT. The Chilean state mining
company CORFO estimate the Reserve Base in the Salar at 4.5MT of
Lithium metal, some 50% higher than the USGS estimate. In a recent
paper [Evans 2008] the Chilean mining company SQM state that the
Lithium reserves in the Salar de Atacama are 6.9MT based on a depth
of 200 metres into the Salar. SQM’s concession extends to a depth of
40m.
The following graph shows how estimates of the Salar’s Lithium content
have increased.
4. Lithium Reserves and Resources, RK Evans, Energy, Vol. 3, No. 3, 1978
4
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Salar de Atacama
HISTORY OF RESOURCE REVISIONS - SALAR DE ATACAMA
History of Lithium Resource
Revisions - Salar de Atacama
7
6.9
6
Megatonnes of Lithium
FIGURE 3
5
4.5
4
3
2
3
2.2
1
0
Evans 1978
USGS
CORFO
Evans 2008
Geological Structure
To understand how much useful brine containing Lithium there is in the
Salar de Atacama, we will look at its geological structure.
A salt lake bed consists of dried out Sodium Chloride or Common Salt.
This forms a solid deposit called Halite or more commonly Rock Salt.
The top of this halite body near the surface is relatively porous and
permeable to water flow - it forms an aquifer through which flows the
brine containing Lithium and other useful minerals (potassium, boron,
magnesium). Further down into the halite body, millennia of cementation
from precipitation of salts by earlier brine flows and compaction block up
the pores and the halite rock becomes more and more impermeable and
solid. This means that the useful brine, containing Lithium and other
soluble salts, is only located in the top 40 metres of the dried salt bed at
the most. A thin crust of salt then forms above this top layer of liquid and
liquid containing rock salt.
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Current Production Resources
FIGURE 4
SCHEMATIC CROSS SECTION THROUGH SALAR DE ATACAMA
Crust
Liquid Brine
High Lithium, Potassium, Boron
High Permeability
HALITE BODY
(NaCl Rock Salt)
35 m
Zero Permeability - Solid
No Useful Minerals
Seismic surveys of the Salar de Atacama carried out in the 1970s
showed that the highest porosity extends to a depth of 20 - 25m with
some additional lower porosity halite down to 35m. Below this depth,
salt cores show complete recrystallisation of the halite into a solid mass,
devoid of any pores5. This means there is no Lithium to extract below
the current pumping depth, only solid rock salt. Only the upper 30m has
high transmissivity, i.e. only in this region can brine flow relatively freely
to refill the areas from where it is pumped out.
• Below the current extraction depth of 30 metres, there is no Lithium
in the Salar de Atacama.
While the Salar de Atacama has a total surface area of 3500km2, it’s
central Halite Nucleus is 1000 - 1400km2 in area. The main area of
commercial importance in the Salar is the top 15m-30m layer beneath
the surface crust of this Nucleus. Below this top 30m layer, the nucleus
is solid rock salt down to 600m and even 900m in places.
The contour map below6 (Figure 5) shows the lines of equal Lithium
concentration (Isopachs) in the Salar and the Nucleus.
The contour map shows that the distribution of Lithium is far from
homogeneous. The southern half of the lake bed demonstrates a
Lithium concentration of 1000 - 1500ppm. The area of highest
concentration where production is currently located lies in a very small
area on the southern shore approximately 100km2 in extent. The
contour lines go up to 4000ppm, within which concentrations as high as
7000ppm have been found. The 4000ppm area is about 8km2 in extent;
the 3000ppm area is some 20km2 in extent and the 2000ppm area is
about 80km2 around that.
5. Industrial Minerals and Rocks, P604, JE Kogel, Blackwell, 2006
6. Idem, P605
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Salar de Atacama
FIGURE 5
SALAR DE ATACAMA - LITHIUM CONCENTRATION CONTOURS
• The Epicentre of World Lithium Production and Resources is an area
of some 8km2 - 30km2 in extent.
In the very central 8km2 region, assuming 10% porosity (CORFO figure)
and a brine depth of 40m, a Lithium concentration [Li] of 4000ppm and a
brine specific gravity of 1.2g/cc, the total Lithium resource in place in the
1970s before production commenced would have been approximately
150,000 tonnes or 820,000 tonnes of Li2CO3 equivalent. The 20km2
region at 3000ppm would have contained 288,000 tonnes of Lithium or
1.5MT of Li2CO3 equivalent.
• The Epicentre of the Salar de Atacama in which the Lithium
concentration exceeds 3,000ppm is 30km2 in area by 35 metres
deep.
• Before Lithium Production commenced this Epicentre held some
450,000 tonnes of Lithium metal.
SCL commenced Lithium Carbonate production from this resource in
1984 with a capacity of 13,000 tpy. SQM commenced production in
December 1996 with a capacity of 18,000 tpy. We estimate that Total
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Current Production Resources
Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) production from the Salar de
Atacama to date is in the order of 500,000 tonnes.
TABLE 1
ESTIMATED LITHIUM CARBONATE (LCE) PRODUCTION TO DATE SALAR DE ATACAMA (tonnes)a
Year
SCL
SQM
1984 - 1996
100,000
-
1997
14,500
9,000
1998
14,500
18,000
1999
14,500
18,000
2000
14,500
19,000
2001
14,500
21,000
2002
16,330
22,000
2003
16,330
24,000
2004
16,330
26,000
2005
16,330
28,000
2006
22,000
28,000
2007
22,000
32,000
280,000
245,000
TOTAL
Total
525,000
a. 1kT of Li = 5.28kT LCE
Therefore about 100,000 tonnes or some 20% of the Lithium metal in
the central epicentre of the highest grade Lithium deposit in the world
has already been extracted - and possibly 5/8ths of the very best
deposit at over 4,000ppm within this.
SQM are currently engaged in expanding Li2CO3 capacity at their plant
in the port of Antofagasta by 50% to 48,000 tpy. This may require
accessing areas of the salar of lower Lithium concentration. As
production is increased, resources of lower grade will have to be
brought into operation, requiring increasing amounts of resources for a
diminishing return.
It can be seen that expanding production much beyond 100,000 tpy of
Li2CO3 would require covering an extensive area of the salar with
production wells, pipelines and evaporation ponds. The environmental
damage to a unique ecosystem and area of natural beauty that has
remained undisturbed for millennia would be substantial.
It is well known to halite geologists that the porosity of halite decreases
very quickly with increasing depth - it decreases exponentially. This
means that the volume of free space within the Rock Salt or halite
deposit of NaCl decreases exponentially - at double the depth, the free
space or pores available to hold the Lithium containing brine will have
decreased by four - at triple the depth, reduced by a factor of nine and
so on. There is a very definite limit to the depth from which the brine can
be pumped out and this limit is about 40 metres in the case of the
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Salar de Atacama
Atacama. SQM’s wells operate at about 30m depth and 40m is the
depth to which their concession extends.
It can be seen that SQM’s concession only extends to 40m depth for a
very good reason: below that depth the Halite Body is solid rock salt
devoid of Lithium or other useful minerals.
All the minerals of interest are only in the fluid intrusions in the pores in
the upper 35m of the halite body - not in the halite itself.
The impermeability of rock salt is well known. Oil and Gas are often
found beneath salt domes and salt caverns have been proposed for
storing sequestered CO2. In fact, the salt core samples from the Salar
de Atacama referred to above were taken by an oil drilling company.
Production cannot be increased by drilling deeper into the increasingly
solid nucleus of the Salar - this would in fact decrease production.
Production can only be increased by expanding drilling and well
installations over a greater surface area of the salar.
Therefore only the upper surface liquid layer can be considered, up to
35m deep. In 1978, Evans estimated the Lithium content in the SQM
concession to be 2.2MT to 60m depth. The USGS estimate is 3MT and
the Chilean state mining company CORFO estimate is 4.5MT. The latest
claim, based on a 200m depth, is 6.9MT. Therefore there has been
100% reserve base inflation since the late 1970s with little justification.
As shown above, extracting Lithium from 200m depth is impossible.
Much below the current exploitation depth of 30m the halite or rock salt
becomes completely solid Sodium Chloride with no liquid brine in it at all
and therefore no useful minerals to extract. The claim of 6.9MT to 200m
depth fails to take this into account and is therefore a gross
exaggeration. CORFO calculated an effective porosity of 10% for the
upper 30m of the Salar de Atacama nucleus but this did not include the
southern area where it is very low7, between 0.43% and 5.25%. This is
the area with the highest Lithium concentration. The mean effective
porosity of the Salar de Atacama in the upper 40m of SQM’s 820km2
claim area was estimated by the UK consulting geologist firm
Hydrotechnica to be 4.4%. If so, this would reduce the central Epicentre
Lithium content from 450,000 tonnes to 200,000 tonnes and would
mean some 50% of the Lithium in this central area has already been
extracted.
• If the porosity in the top layer of the Atacama in the Southern Area is
only 4.4% as estimated by Hydrotechnica and not 10% as claimed by
CORFO, then Before Lithium Production commenced this Epicentre
contained some 200,000 tonnes of Lithium.
• 50% of this would already have been extracted since 1984.
7. Garrett, 2004, Op. Cit.
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Current Production Resources
Given that Evans’ original 1978 Lithium Resource estimate for the SQM
concession was 2.2MT to a depth of 60m and 40m is the maximum
depth to which Lithium is found, the USGS estimate which takes into
account the rest of the nucleus (but at lower concentration) is probably
the upper limit. It would not be prudent to rely on more.
With a 50% recovery factor and taking into account the reality from
studying the [Li] contour map that only the higher concentration areas of
the salar might be exploited, the upper limit to Recoverable Reserves
cannot exceed 1.0MT.
However, extracting anything like that 50% of the Lithium in the Salar
would take many decades and would destroy it. Production today takes
place where the Lithium concentration is highest. Future production
sites elsewhere on the nucleus will experience lower Lithium
concentrations, lower production rates and higher costs.
Conclusion
Lithium is only found in the top 35 metres of the Salar de Atacama.
Since 1984 some 100,000 tonnes of Lithium have been extracted from
the richest grade deposit on the Southern Edge of the Salar.
The most realistic assessment based on the known low porosity of this
Southern Edge is that before production commenced, this southern high
grade zone contained 200,000 tonnes of Lithium. The maximum it would
have contained was 450,000 tonnes.
Therefore 50% of the highest grade Lithium deposit in the world may
already have been extracted.
While the nucleus may contain 3MT or more of Lithium in total, access
can only be gained to this by wholesale destruction of the salar by
expanding wells and pipelines over a much greater area of its surface.
In reality, the realistic recoverable reserve is less than 1MT.
Increasing investment and resources will be required to maintain
production at current levels as the Lithium content in the salar continues
to fall. Any increase in production will require accessing lower grade
areas of the salar and an exponential increase in resources per unit
production increase.
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Salar de Hombre Muerto
2.3
Salar de Hombre Muerto
The Salar de Hombre Muerto was the second Lithium salt deposit to be
put into production in South America after the Salar de Atacama. It is
located about 220km south west of the Salar de Atacama. Production of
Lithium from the Salar de Hombre Muerto commenced in 1997 - 1998.
Rather than solar evaporation, FMC use a proprietary alumina
adsorption system to directly extract Lithium from the brine. A supply of
fresh water is required to wash out the adsorption beds when they are
full of Lithium and refresh them. In 1997, the Salar was reported8 to
contain only 130,000 tonnes of Lithium metal, which is certainly too low.
Garrett cites 800,000 tonnes which appears reasonable for the size and
grade of the salar. The salar is small in surface area but brine can be
extracted from lower depths than in many other salars.
The concentration of Lithium varies between 220 - 1000 ppm and FMC
extract where it averages 650ppm. The concentration exceeds 700ppm
over large sections of the salar.
Production is about 12,000tpy of Li2CO3 and 6,000tpy of LiCl. This is
used by FMC as feedstock for their Lithium chemicals business. The
reserve is estimated to last 75 years at the current extraction rate, which
is about 5,000 tpy of Lithium metal. This would give a Total Reserve of
375,000 tonnes or about 50% of the 800,000 tonne resource. This is in
accordance with what one would expect. The extraction rate is 1.25% of
the reserve per annum.
2.4
Salar de Uyuni
Although production has not yet commenced at the Salar de Uyuni, we
analyse it in this part of the report because of its perceived importance
as the single largest Lithium deposit in the world. It contains over 40% of
global Lithium brine resources and several initiatives have been made in
the past to exploit it.
It is stated [Evans, 2008] that the Salar de Uyuni contains Lithium
Reserves of 5.5MT. This figure is however the total Lithium metal
resource estimated to be contained in the Salar, not recoverable
reserves. Since the 1980s, some Bolivian and other sources have
estimated the resource at 9MT. The USGS estimate is 5.4MT.
The Salar de Uyuni has a high Mg:Li ratio of 18.6:1, three times higher
than the Salar de Atacama. The higher this ratio, the more difficult it
becomes to produce Lithium. This high ratio in Uyuni will prevent the
formation of Lithium Chloride (LiCl) in the evaporation ponds unless
Magnesium is removed before evaporation and concentration
8. Minsal Lithium Carbonate - Slightly Ahead of its Time, Peter Harben, George
Edwards, Industrial Minerals No. 353, Feb. 1997, P25-39.
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Current Production Resources
commences. This has heretofore been one of the major stumbling
blocks to exploiting the Salar de Uyuni. A similar problem exists at the
Salar de Rincon, where Admiralty Resources will be pre-treating the raw
brine with Calcium Hydroxide to reduce the Magnesium content before
evaporation commences (see below).
FIGURE 6
SALAR DE UYUNI
At 10,000km2 in area, the Salar de Uyuni is the largest salt flat in the
world. However, the concentration of Lithium varies widely in different
parts of the salar and the area of highest Lithium density above
1000ppm is in a small area in the south east where the Rio Grande
enters the salar. This area is about 280km2 in extent. Levels as high as
4.7g/l or 4700ppm have been found here but that is in a very small
focused epicentre. The area with [Li] greater than 3000ppm is about
50km2 in extent. Across the rest of the lake, Lithium levels fall to 500600ppm. Production would be focused in this small south east quadrant
and would offer diminishing returns in other parts of the lake bed. One
can see by looking at the contour map9 of Lithium concentration
(Figure 7), that in fact, most of the Lithium in the Salar de Uyuni will
remain inaccessible or would take decades to extract, not counting the
irreversible environmental damage in covering its surface with brine
extraction facilities and evaporation ponds. As with the Salar de
Atacama, expanding production outside a central high concentration
epicentre (the Rio Grande lagoon region) will result in steeply
diminishing returns. The solar evaporation is 1,500mm per year, less
than half the rate at the Salar de Atacama.
9. Quaternary Geochemical Evolution of the Salars of Uyuni and Copaisa, Ventral
Altiplano Bolivia - F. Risacher, B. Fritz, Chemical Geology 90 (1991) 211-231
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Salar de Uyuni
FIGURE 7
LITHIUM CONCENTRATION COUNTOURS - SALAR DE UYUNI (g/l)
Note the small area on the southern edge where the Lithium
concentration exceeds 1000ppm. Contour lines are in g/l (multiply by
1000 for ppm).
Geological Structure
The structure of the Salar de Uyuni is very different to the Salar de
Atacama. This difference must be understood by the reader due to its
very important implications for the production potential of Lithium from
the resource.
Whereas the brine containing halite layer in the Salar de Atacama is 35
metres thick, the Uyuni halite deposit is very thin, being only 11 metres
thick at the thickest point and only 2m to 5m thick in the south east area
of high Lithium concentration. The halite is however porous all the way
through, with a much higher average porosity of 35% and is filled with
interstitial brine. This means that the quantity of Lithium available per
unit surface area is much lower and a correspondingly greater area of
the salar will have to be exploited for an equivalent Lithium production.
Assuming a 200km2 epicentre at 2000ppm, 3.5m deep, 35% porosity
and brine density of 1.2g/cc, the total Lithium resource in the central
richest region would be about 600,000 tonnes before applying a
recovery factor of 50% giving a Recoverable Reserve of 300,000
tonnes.
• The Recoverable Lithium Reserve in the Central Highest Grade
Epicentre of the Salar de Uyuni is 300,000 tonnes
This is in agreement with Risacher and Fritz’s estimate for the total
amount of Lithium in the Southern Fringe of 500,000 tonnes.
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Current Production Resources
FIGURE 8
UYUNI SALT BODY DEPTH CONTOURS
FIGURE 9
IDEALISED CROSS SECTION - UYUNI vs ATACAMA
100 kms
HALITE
10 metres
Salar de Uyuni
Lithium Zone
2 - 5m deep
40kms
BRINE ZONE
500 metres
HALITE
High Lithium
Zone
Salar de Atacama
Production Potential
In late March 2008, President Evo Morales of Bolivia signed a decree
investing $5.7M to set up a state owned pilot Lithium extraction plant on
the Salar. It will be run by a “General Directorate of Evaporative
Resources of the Salar de Uyuni” under the state mining company
Comibol. There is now a clear intention by the Bolivian Government to
nationalise the entire mining industry, even if joint ventures will be used
with foreign companies to develop resources.
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Salar de Uyuni
It has been reported10 that Bolivia have stated an intention to produce
1,000 tons of Lithium per month from 2013, or 60,000tpy of Lithium
Carbonate Equivalent (LCE). This would be 50% higher than current
production from the Salar de Atacama, the largest producer of Lithium in
the world. The grade of the Uyuni resource is about 50% that of the
Atacama, the Mg:Li ratio is three times as high and the evaporation rate
is 1,500mm per annum compared to 3,600mm per annum or 40% of
that experienced at Atacama.
Taking these factors into account it is highly unlikely that anything like
60,000 tpy of LCE will be produced from the Salar de Uyuni in 2013. If
everything goes according to plan, a more realistic assessment might
be 10,000 tpy by 2015 and 30,000 tpy by 2020.
When the real grade and distribution of Lithium in the Salar de Uyuni are
considered, it can be seen why it is not a particularly attractive resource.
The central epicentre is lower in quality than the Atacama. Compared to
the 30-35m depth available in Atacama, Uyuni is only 2 to 5m thick at
this point. The higher porosity (between 3.5 and 8 times as porous as
Atacama depending on whether the CORFO or Hydrotechnica figures
are used) makes up for this much lower thickness of the deposit to some
extent. The total amount of Lithium stored in the epicentre is thus
comparable to the Atacama but spread out over at least twice the
surface area. In addition the Mg:Li ratio is 3 times as high and the
evaporation rate only 40% of that at Atacama. Even with the higher
porosity, the amount of Lithium in the salt body per unit area is much
lower than in the Atacama. (If the Atacama deposit is 35m deep versus
3.5m and has 10% porosity versus 35%, then overall the Atacama has
nearly 3 times as much interstitial brine per unit surface area and the
concentration of Lithium in that brine is higher). Therefore, a much
greater surface area of the Uyuni will have to be exploited for an
equivalent production with concomitant environmental degradation. The
deposit is so thin it is difficult to see how pumping from wells would be
feasible. There might be a temptation to excavate large depressions into
the surface and let them fill up with brine to then be pumped out, or a
trench system similar to that used at the Bonneville Salt Flats. This
would be highly environmentally damaging.
The Salar de Copaisa to the north of Uyuni contains 200,000 tonnes of
Lithium in lower concentration.
Environmental Factors
As noted above, the Salar de Uyuni is the largest salt flat in the world
and is the brightest object on the Earth’s surface visible from space.
Some in the tourist industry classify it as a Natural Wonder of the World
and it is undoubtedly an area of outstanding natural beauty. During the
southern spring the salar becomes a flamingo breeding ground. The
10. www.evworld.com/artcle.cfm?storyid=1457 “Peak Lithium or Lithium in
Abundance?”, JC Zuleta Calderon, accessed 23/05/08.
Meridian International Research 2008
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Current Production Resources
rains often flood the surface of the salar between January and March.
The flamingo breeding season is from December to February. The
discharge of the Rio Grande into the salar, adjacent to where the
Lithium concentration is highest, creates a permanent lagoon area used
by the birds.
FIGURE 10
VIEW OVER THE SALAR DE UYUNI
Some 60,000 tourists visited the Salar de Uyuni in 2006 despite the
poor infrastructure and this number is increasing. Infrastructure is being
improved with a new road recently constructed between the town of
Uyuni and the regional capital of Potosi to improve tourist access.
Production of Lithium from this unique ecosystem can only be
environmentally damaging. Anything more than limited and very careful
recovery of Lithium is incompatible with the production of “Green Cars”.
Conclusion
Although the Salar de Uyuni appears to be a large deposit in absolute
terms, the Lithium is dispersed over a very wide area in a very thin
deposit.
The real exploitable reserve is therefore only in the order of 300,000
tonnes of Lithium, not several million tonnes.
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Salar del Rincon
2.5
Salar del Rincon
The Salar del Rincon Lithium resource in Argentina has been under
development since 1999 and commercial production of Li2CO3 is now
scheduled for 2008 - 09.
FIGURE 11
DRILLING RIG ON THE SALAR DEL RINCON
It has been stated recently [Evans, 2008] that the Salar del Rincon has
proven and probable in-situ reserves of 1.86MT of Lithium metal. This is
in fact a total resource - not the economically and technically
recoverable reserve. The JORC Inferred Resource Estimate (produced
by independent consultants) issued by Admiralty Resources (ADY) to
their investors on the 27/07/05 estimated the reserves at 250,000
tonnes of Lithium metal or 13% of the latest figure. The independent
October 2004 geologist’s report performed by Pedro Pavlovic, the
leading Chilean expert on Lithium deposits, estimated the Ultimately
Recoverable Lithium content at the same level - 250,000 tonnes.
Pavlovic based this on an estimated porosity for the salar of 8% - 10%,
in line with other salars in the region.
On 27/07/07 Admiralty Resources issued a new JORC compliant report
revising upwards the Lithium metal reserves in the Salar del Rincon to
1.4MT. This was produced by Dr. George Sorentino, who is now ADY’s
Technical Director for the project.
This latest estimate by ADY is shown in Table 2 below.
Meridian International Research 2008
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Current Production Resources
TABLE 2
SALAR DEL RINCON - LITHIUM RESOURCES 27/07/07
Low
Expected
High
Uncertainty
kilotonnes
Proven
Reserves
746
911 ± 53
1,098
± 10%
Probable
Reserves
288
492 ± 72
762
± 25%
Total
Reserves
1,035
1,403 ± 26
1,861
± 15%
Therefore Evans’ figure for Lithium Reserves in the Salar del Rincon is
the most optimistic figure of 1.86MT presented by ADY. This represents
an increase of 744% in reserves since 2004.
While these figures are presented by ADY as Reserves they are in fact
Resources in place i.e. the amount of metal claimed to be geologically
present. Reserves are how much of that resource in place one can
realistically extract and produce. In a recent presentation, ADY state
that their process now in pilot testing demonstrates over 70% recovery
factor, compared to 42% in the Salar de Atacama. Assuming this is the
case and that pilot scale efficiencies will not fall in large scale
production, it must be underlined that the actual reserve would be 70%
of 1.4MT or 1MT of Li metal, not taking into account the fact that
recovery efficiency and production rate will fall at a certain point in the
future as the concentration of Lithium in the Salar falls.
Therefore a more realistic assessment of ADY’s latest figures would be
to estimate Recoverable Lithium Reserves at no more than 1MT and
almost certainly less. It is unlikely that the Salar del Rincon has higher
Lithium resources or reserves than the Salar de Hombre Muerto.
ADY have based this increase in resources on findings from a drilling
survey that the effective porosity of the Salar is 38%, not 8%. In other
words, they have found that the halite rock is far more porous than
previously thought and therefore contains more interstitial Lithium
bearing brine.
At the seven production wells they have drilled, the porosity was only
4.7% and 8% at two of the wells and 38% at the other five. However,
ADY’s report states that "the crystalline mass of the Salar has a porosity
of 3% - 8%, but the presence of very large cavities containing brine
increases the effective porosity to 38%. The system of interconnected
caverns and geodes is that main contributor to the Salar’s effective
porosity”.
This is not quite the same thing as the salar having a porosity of 38%. If
a well does not enter into these cavities, which may or may not be
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Salar del Rincon
interconnected with other brine filled cavities, the well will be in halite of
4.7 - 8% porosity. Each cavity will be in communication with a varying
number and volume of other cavities. Once a cavity system has been
emptied, it will be subject to the 3% - 8% porosity and related low
permeability and flow rate within the crystalline mass surrounding it to
refill it. Therefore even if the average porosity is 38%, leading to a
higher amount of Lithium overall in the salar, this does not necessarily
mean that the recoverable reserve or production rate can be increased
accordingly.
Noting that this latest report does confirm that the crystalline mass of the
Salar has a porosity of 3-8%, it may be prudent to continue to base
independent reserve assessments on 10% porosity, giving a
Recoverable Reserve of 250,000 tonnes of Lithium metal.
When evaluating this resource, it should also be noted that incorrect
claims have been made concerning the replenishment of the salar with
Lithium inflows. In his 2004 report11, Pavlovic calculated that 4000m3 of
water enters the salar every day in the form of precipitation, ground
water and surface (river) water. Of that, three quarters is precipitation
and therefore unequivocally free of minerals.
In the report of 22/12/04 by Dr. Carlos Sorentino, it is stated that
Pavlovic concluded that 4000m3 of brine enters the salar every day and
that “at the salt concentrations indicated, this represents an annual
mass input of 9.3MT of salt.... compared with the project’s forecast
consumption of 0.26MT/year”.
This has been used by ADY to indicate that the salar is being
replenished with Lithium and to imply it is therefore a virtually
inexhaustible resource12.
This is incorrect. Pavlovic was referring to water inflows, 78% of which
are precipitation, not surface or underground water. There is therefore
little or no replenishment of the Salar with Lithium, certainly not in
comparison with the extraction rate and the resource will deplete as it is
extracted.
Due to the high Mg:Li ratio (8.6:1) in the Salar del Rincon, the phase
chemistry does not allow Lithium Chloride brine to be produced unless
some of the Magnesium is removed at the start of the process, to lower
the Mg:Li ratio. ADY intend to do this by pre-treating the raw brine with
Calcium Hydroxide to remove Magnesium and then treating with
Sodium Sulphate to remove Calcium. (Similar treatment is also required
at Atacama to reduce the Sulphate and Calcium content before solar
concentration). This will be performed before the brine is pumped into
the solar evaporation ponds. A similar process or another method will
11. “Evaluation of the Potential of the Salar del Rincon Brine”, Report by consulting
geologist Pedro Pavlovic to ADY, Dec. 2004
12. Rincon Salar Update, 1str November 2006, Admiralty Resources NL
Meridian International Research 2008
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Current Production Resources
also be required at the Salar de Uyuni which has an even higher Mg:Li
ratio of 18.6:1. This accounts for the recent interest by the Bolivian
authorities in the Rincon operations. The higher Mg:Li ratio will add
more cost and more requirement for bulk reagents to the process
compared with extraction in the Salar de Atacama.
ADY project that in 2009-10, they will produce 8,000 tonnes of 99.0%
Li2CO3 and 2,000 tonnes of battery grade material at 99.99%. This
production split matches the current global market shares of these
materials. 2,000 tpy of Battery Grade Li2CO3 would be sufficient for
90,000 GM Volts or ten times as many 1.5kWh HEV0 batteries. Full
production of Li2CO3 is planned to reach 17,000tpy, of which one can
project 4,000tpy will be battery grade.
2.6
Other Brine Resources
Clayton Valley
Clayton Valley or Silver Peak, Nevada, has been producing Lithium
since 1966. The concentration of Lithium has fallen from 360mg/l (ppm)
to 230mg/l today. In 1992, Clayton Valley’s reserves were estimated at
118,000 tonnes of Lithium. The lake is only 50km2 in area. Its Lithium
Carbonate production of about 9,000 tpy is used by Chemetall Foote
internally for manufacture of Lithium chemicals, supplementing their
main source of supply which is now the Salar de Hombre Muerto.
Production is in decline. The Solar Evaporation Rate is 900mm per year,
one quarter of that at the Salar de Atacama.
China
There are three main salt lakes of interest in China:
• The East Taijinaier Salt Lake in the Qaidan Basin, Qinghai Province,
North of Tibet
• The DXC Salt Lake in South West Tibet
• The Zhabuye Salt Lake in Western Tibet
In August 2005, a 5,000 tpy Li2CO3 production plant using brines from
the Zhabuye Salt Lake was opened. The Chinese say this will increase
in the long term to 20,000 tpy of sustained production. This salt lake is in
a very remote region at an altitude of 4,400m or 14,500 feet.
Evaporation rates are therefore lower than at the Chilean or Argentinian
lakes. Li2CO3 occurs here naturally, crystallising on the shores of the
lake, which is remarkable.
The Qaidan basin is said to be the largest Lithium resource in China.
This region, north of Tibet, was once a vast lake. It now contains some
33 salt lakes. Pilot production of LiCl and Li2CO3 (500 tpy) from the
Taijinaier salt lake was started in 2004 and full scale production is now
gearing up. The CITIC Guoan Scientific and Technical Co. officially
inaugurated a 35,000 tpy capacity Li2CO3 plant in Golmud, Qinghai
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Mineral Resources
Province on the 11th January 2007. It will take some years for
production to reach this figure, but makes the facility the largest Li2CO3
plant in the world ahead of SQM’s 28,000 tpy plant at Salar del Carmen
near Antofagasta, which is now expanding to 38,000 tpy.
CITIC Guoan hold a large stake in MGL, the largest Chinese
manufacturer of LiCoOx cathodes for LiIon batteries.
The DXC Salt Lake in central Tibet has a Lithium concentration of about
400mg/l or 0.04% and a Mg:Li ratio of only 0.22. Extraction is attractive
from that perspective, but the lake is a small resource, containing only
1MT of LiCl or 160kT of contained Lithium. With a recovery efficiency of
50%, the total Lithium Carbonate production that could be expected
from the lake would be in the order of 400,000 tonnes. The lake is also
4,400m above sea-level and over 400 miles from the nearest rail head
by rough gravel roads13. The Canadian company Sterling Group
Ventures are considering exploiting this resource with a 5,000 tpy
facility.
Salar del Olaroz
Near to Salar del Rincon in northern Argentina, Orocobre Ltd are taking
advantage of growing Lithium demand to explore the potential of the
Salar de Olaroz. This is a much smaller lake bed than Rincon but is said
to have a higher Lithium concentration of 900ppm. Based on a 10%
porosity estimate, the total amount of Lithium in the resource is
projected to be some 325,000 tonnes of contained Lithium. Mg:Li ratio
has not been reported. Geological mapping of the surface has just
commenced. First production can not be expected for at least 5 years.
2.7
Mineral Resources
Western Australia - Greenbushes
The Greenbushes pegmatite 300km south of Perth is the largest and
highest grade Lithium hard rock mineral resource in the world. However,
the primary mineral extracted from this mine is Tantalum.
The Tantalum and Spodumene operation at Greenbushes is also the
largest producer of spodumene concentrates in the world, destined for
use in high temperature ceramics and glass.
In late 2007, after three years in administration, the mine owner Sons of
Gwalia were bought by Talison Minerals. Australian spodumene
concentrates production capacity is 150,000 tpy. Two grades of
concentrate are produced with a Lithium Oxide content of either 4.8% or
13. Qualifying Report for DXC Salt Lake Deposit, Nyima County, Tibet, China. N.
Tribe & Assoc. Ltd, 20/5/06.
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Current Production Resources
7.5% (Li2O). This production should now be assured for the foreseeable
future.
Sons of Gwalia ceased production of Li2CO3 from spodumene in 1998,
after SQM entered the market with low cost brine source Lithium
Carbonate.
Mt. Cattlin
The Australian mining group Galaxy Resources are planning to develop
another spodumene/ Tantalum resource in Western Australia at Mt.
Cattlin and state that they intend to produce Lithium Carbonate from
spodumene. Analysis of their figures, stating 24.8MT of ore at 0.56%
Li2O content, shows that the deposit contains 65,000 tonnes of Lithium
metal. At an impossible 100% recovery factor this would produce some
350kT of Li2CO3. When recovery factors are taken into account less
than half that or 150,000 tonnes could be produced over the lifetime of
the mine. The ore grade is even lower than the resource in Finland
(q.v.).
North Carolina
North Carolina ceased being economically competitive as a Lithium
Carbonate producer in the 1980s. The Lithco plant in Bessemer City
had a Lithium chemical capacity of 15,000 tpy of Li2CO3 equivalent, but
did not produce exclusively Li2CO3. The Cyprus Foote Mineral
Company Lithium Carbonate plant (Kings Mountain, NC) had a capacity
of 8,000 tonnes per year, producing 99.1% Li2CO3. This would require
further processing to bring it up to 99.95% battery standard. The
Bessemer City mine was shut in 1998 and the Kings Mountain mine and
facility was closed in 1986.
Based on the figures [Kesler] cited by Evans, the average Lithium
concentration in the North Carolina deposit is 70ppm. The USGS do not
include these deposits in their estimates since they were superseded by
brine production. Given the National Security priority that has been
given to reducing dependence on foreign oil, the North Carolina
deposits could in theory be re-developed, to reduce dependence on
foreign Lithium, though it cannot be as economic as brine.
In his 1992 book “La Industria del Litio en Chile” (The Lithium Industry in
Chile), Pedro Pavlovic estimated relative Li2CO3 production costs as
follows:
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Other Producing Resources
TABLE 3
LITHIUM CARBONATE PRODUCTION COSTS
Location
Cost per kg Li2CO3
(1992 dollars)
FMC/ Lithco, Bessemer City,
North Carolina (Spodumene)
$2.43 / kg
Cyprus Foote Mineral Co, Silver
Peak, Nevada (Brine)
$1.65 / kg
Sociedad Chilena
Atacama (Brine)
$1.10 / kg
del
Litio,
The relative cost of producing Li2CO3 from spodumene in the USA
would now almost certainly be even higher than twice the cost of that
from the Salar de Atacama given the increase in the cost of energy in
recent years.
2.8
Other Producing Resources
Zimbabwe
Bikita Minerals in Zimbabwe have been producing lithium containing
concentrates for the ceramics industry since the 1960s. According to
Garrett, the proven reserves are 23MT of ore at 1.4% Lithium Oxide
content, i.e. a resource in place of 150,000 tonnes of Lithium but
Reserves - what can realistically be produced - are estimated by the
USGS to be only 23,000 tonnes. Lithium Carbonate has never been
produced from this Lithium source. Production of Lithium minerals today
from Bikita is about 30,000 tpy (i.e. a Lithium Carbonate equivalent
content of 1000 tonnes since this is unprocessed ore, not a glass grade
concentrate).
In December 2007, in parallel with the passing of the "Indigenisation
and Empowerment Act" which appropriates 50% of white owned
businesses to black control, the mine was taken over by "war veterans"
and the management evicted.
Russian Federation
Russia produces spodumene at the Pervomaisky mine south east of
China. Lithium carbonate used to then be produced at Novosibirsk but
this ceased14 when SQM entered the market.
14. Industrial Minerals and Rocks, P607
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Current Production Resources
Portugal
Portugal’s spodumene production is nominal and used for glass/
ceramic applications.
Canada
Tanco in Canada produce 24,000 tpy of glass grade spodumene (5%
Li2O) as a by-product of Tantalum mining. The contained Lithium metal
is 560 tonnes or 3,000 tonnes of Lithium Carbonate equivalent. This is
too small a Lithium resource to be considered for Li2CO3 production.
Avalon Ventures in Canada are developing a hard rock lithium resource
for a "new mineral composite material for non-combustible materials"
they have developed, i.e. a high temperature ceramic. The raw ore
contains 1.34% Li2O compared to 4% at Greenbushes in Australia.
Brazil
Brazil has produced a limited quantity of Lithium hard rock minerals for
many years. Kogel cites deposits of 300 - 400kT of spodumene and
petalite ore. Companhia Brasileira de Litio produced about 1,500tpy of
Li2CO3 from spodumene concentrates as of 2003.
In Brazil, all lithium-related activities are controlled by the CNEN
(Nuclear Energy National Commission) due to its nuclear applications.
2.9
Conclusion
When the structure of the two largest Lithium deposits in the world
(Atacama and Uyuni) are considered in detail, it is apparent that the
recoverable reserves will be far lower than the total quantity of Lithium
metal present in the salt bodies. We would put the upper limit on the
recoverable reserves in the Salar de Atacama at 1MT and less than that
in the Salar de Uyuni.
Therefore Total Global Lithium Reserves are in the order of 4 million
tonnes.
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3
Future Potential
Resources
3.1
Introduction
This chapter examines the major potential Lithium deposits that are
cited as possible future sources of the metal. It covers the nature of
each resource and estimates how much Lithium Carbonate could
realistically be produced from them.
3.2
Mineral Resources
Osterbotten, Finland
Lithium mineral deposits were discovered in Finland in the 1950s and
numerous studies have been carried out over the years into exploiting it.
The start up mining company Keliber (4 employees) have obtained
environmental permits to produce 6,000tpy of Li2CO3 from spodumene
in the Lantta/ Osterbotten regions, using a new production process. The
company have recently been taken over by a larger Norwegian mining
group. They plan to start Lithium Carbonate production in 2010.
The mineral resource they are exploiting contains 3MT of spodumene at
0.92% Li2O, compared to 4% Li2O at the highest grade spodumene
resource in the world at Greenbushes.
The total amount of Lithium geologically present is therefore 13,000
tonnes or 68,000 tonnes of Li2CO3 equivalent. If half of this is
recoverable, Keliber are projecting production of 6,000 tpy of Li2CO3
from a Reserve of 35,000 tonnes or 16% of the reserve per annum,
giving a mine life of 6 years.
There are other deposits in the area, presumably of lower grade and/or
smaller in size.
6,000 tpy of (battery grade) Li2CO3 would be sufficient for some 270,000
GM Volts per year. After 6 years, production would cease.
Meridian International Research 2008
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Future Potential Resources
China, Jiajika
The Jiajika pegmatite is claimed by China to contain 1.03MT of ore at
1.28% Li2O. This gives a total Lithium resource of 6,000 tonnes of
Lithium metal. Chinese Lithium Carbonate production is now shifting
away from domestic and imported hard rock minerals to domestic brine
resources.
Democratic Republic of the Congo (Zaire)
Regarding the Democratic Republic of the Congo, it is stated [Evans,
2008] that “the pegmatites could contain 2.3MT of Lithium”. Garrett cites
estimates of 309,000 tonnes. A figure for how much Lithium is in the
deposit does not inform about its quality, grade and feasibility of
extracting it. As a hard rock source, Lithium Carbonate production costs
will be much higher than from brine. It would be more feasible to restart
production in North Carolina rather than develop an entirely new
resource in such a politically unstable and undeveloped region.
Kogel does describe the Manolo and Kittolo pegmatites in the Congo as
"probably the largest hard rock lithium resources in the world... their
dimensions imply spodumene reserves that dwarf the currently known
world reserves". She goes on to say: "The deposit may not have an
economic value for years however because of very poor transportation
facilities. The deposit is 2,200km from the Angolan port of Lobito".
In comparison, the high grade Greenbushes mine is 300km from Perth
and situated in a developed politically stable country.
This is a speculative resource that can not be counted as a reserve nor
relied upon for planning purposes.
Hectorite Clays
The Lithium bearing clays at Hector, California have been mined since
the 1950s for their swelling characteristics. Here they contain 0.53% or
5300ppm Lithium [Kogel, P609] but have never been exploited for their
Lithium content, despite numerous studies, since it is chemically easier
to extract it from pegmatite hard rocks minerals, despite the lower
Lithium concentration.
Evans cites a deposit of 2MT of Lithium in the hectorite clays of Oregon
and Nevada with a reserve cut-off percentage used of 0.275% or
2750ppm. Since it has not yet been proven to be economically
recoverable, it cannot be considered to be a reserve. Research on
extracting Lithium from boron clays in Turkey in 2005 estimated15 that a
concentration of 4,000ppm was required for a Lithium Carbonate cost in
Turkey of double then market rates.
15. “Between a Rock and a Salt Lake”, Industrial Minerals, June 2007, P69
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Brines
Studies have been carried out on extracting Lithium from hectorite and
montmorillonite clays since the late 1970s. As with spodumene,
extraction of Lithium from clay also requires an energy intensive
process of calcining in a rotary kiln at 900oC. Gypsum and Limestone
are required16 as co-ingredients during calcining in the ratio of
approximately 5:3:3 parts of clay: gypsum: limestone. Between 70% and
80% of the Lithium can be recovered with this lime-gypsum water
leaching process. The cost of electricity or natural gas is the single
largest item of direct costs.
In 2003, Turkish researchers estimated the cost of producing Li2CO3 in
Turkey from domestic boron clays containing 3000ppm Lithium at
$6,500 per tonne, not including capital costs. This relatively low cost
was based on the owner of the boron clays (Eti Holding) using limestone
they already own and gypsum waste from their boric acid plant. The
market price has now risen to over $10,000 / tonne (low grade) and
continues to rise. Turkey has clays in the area of Bigadic containing
2000 - 2500ppm Lithium which might therefore be able to produce some
Lithium Carbonate in future, but it is only economic at current market
prices and the process has not yet been tested on even a pilot scale.
No commercial scale or pilot scale Lithium extraction from hectorites or
other clays has yet been performed and the automobile/ battery
industries cannot factor such a speculative possibility with an unknown
time scale into their planning.
3.3
Brines
Searles Lake
Searles Lake is located 200km north of Los Angeles. It is a small salt
lake, only 100km2 in area with a very porous halite body (35%) 8m thick
and a high density 1.3g/cc brine. In the central section the Lithium
concentration [Li] is 50-80ppm, falling to 10-70ppm at the edge.
Production of salts at Searles Lake started in 1916 and in 1936
production of dilithium phosphate was commenced. In 1951, a plant was
constructed to produce Li2CO3 to support the US thermonuclear bomb
program. This production of Li2CO3 ceased in 1978 and in 1995 the
reserves of high quality brine became depleted.
It can be seen that Searles Lake is a much less attractive resource than
Clayton Valley, having at best 80ppm Lithium concentration in a small
central area. The total amount of Lithium in the lake can only be low. If
we take 100km2 at 50ppm, multiplied by 8m of halite, 35% porosity and
density of 1.3g/cc, the total Lithium content would be 18,200 tonnes of
Lithium. This is too small a resource at too low a concentration to be
economically viable.
16. Recovery of Lithium from a Montmorillonite Type Clay, RH Lien, US Bureau of
Mines, Report 8967, 1985.
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Future Potential Resources
Great Salt Lake
The Great Salt Lake is divided into a northern and southern section by a
railway causeway which crosses the lake. The northern section has a
Lithium content of 40-64ppm and the southern part 18-43ppm. A system
of two 20,000 acre (81km2) ponds at the northern end are used to
produce NaCl, MgCl and particularly potassium sulphate (K2SO4).
The end liquor from the magnesium plant contains 600ppm of Li and the
K2SO4 plant has achieved 700-1600ppm of Li. Garrett states that tests
have been performed on extracting this Lithium by solvent extraction or
selective crystallisation - if the Lithium from the K2SO4 plant was
recovered it could amount to 41 tonnes of Lithium metal per year.
A major difficulty in producing Lithium from the lake is the very high
Mg:Li ratio of 250:1.
The Evaporation rate at the GLS and at Clayton Lake/ Silver Peak is
1,800mm per year or about half that at the Salar de Atacama.
The Great Salt Lake is estimated to contain 526,000 tonnes of Lithium.
In 1978, the recoverable reserve was estimated17 at 286,000 tonnes.
As a further comparison, the two existing 20,000 acre pond systems are
filled 4 to 10 inches deep with brine during the 24 month evaporation
process. At 50ppm, the total Lithium content of these ponds if filled to a
depth of 10 inches would be 2,400 tonnes. However, studies have
shown that only 41 tonnes could be extracted.
Salton Sea
The Salton Sea is attracting significant interest as a possible new
source of Lithium production. We will examine its potential in some
detail.
The Salton Sea is a salt lake 200 feet below sea level in southern
California, formed in 1905 when the Colorado River burst a levee.
Situated at the southern end of the lake is an area of geothermal activity,
called the “Salton Sea Known Geothermal Resource Area” or SSKGRA.
This geothermal resource consists of a 60km2 underground lake of
superheated pressurised hot brine, containing 4km3 of brine which
extends northwards under the Salton Sea. The surface lake is currently
receding as more of its inflow water is used for other purposes and
plans exist to expand the geothermal capacity northwards as the lake
recedes, permitting access to more of the underground hot brine.
The underground brine has a Lithium content of 100 - 250ppm. The
average value is taken as 200ppm, which is about the same as at
Clayton Valley, Nevada. At a brine density of 1.2g/cc and an estimated
17. Evans, 1978 Op. Cit.
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Meridian International Research 2008
Brines
volume of 4km3, the total amount of Lithium in the underground brine
would be 960,000 tonnes or 1MT in round figures.
Studies have been carried out since the 1970s into recovering minerals
from this resource, which also contains metals such as lead, zinc,
manganese, strontium, barium and tin. Calenergy currently operate 10
geothermal wells in the SSKGRA producing 326MW of electrical power,
making this the largest geothermal power station in the USA. Wells have
been added steadily since the first power plant started operating in the
mid 1980s. Hot brine and steam at a temperature of 260oC comes to the
surface under its own pressure where it is used to drive steam turbines
to generate electricity. The spent brine is then re-injected back into the
underground reservoir.
FIGURE 12
PROPOSED SALTON SEA GEOTHERMAL POWER STATIONS
Recovery Potential
From December 2002 to September 2004, Calenergy operated a Zinc
recovery plant to extract Zinc from the spent brine. They invested
$285M in the plant, including a 49MW geothermal well to power the Zinc
recovery operation. The projected annual Zinc production was 30,000
tonnes but only limited production was achieved despite efforts to
increase production. The Zinc recovery operation was therefore shut
down.
In 2003, Calenergy subsidiary Obsidian Energy obtained permission to
build a separate 10 well power plant nearby with an additional 185 215MW capacity. Construction was supposed to commence by the end
of 2008 but has now been put off by up to 3 years and will be scaled
back to one or two 50-60MW plants.
The start-up company Simbol Mining now plan to develop this resource
to meet the forthcoming growth in demand for automotive LiIon
batteries. They intend to process spent brine from the geothermal
Meridian International Research 2008
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Future Potential Resources
stations and hope to reach 100,000 tpy of Li2CO3 production using a
selective adsorption technology, similar to the strategy used by
Chemetall Foote at the Salar de Hombre Muerto in Argentina. 100,000
tpy is a third more than total current global production and 6.66 times
existing global battery grade (99.95%) Li2CO3 production. Simbol
believe that battery grade Li2CO3 demand will grow by a factor of five (to
75,000 tpy) by 2013 which is in our view not an exaggeration - this
would be sufficient for 3.3M GM Volt class vehicles.
We will now examine how much brine would have to be processed to
produce 100,000 tpy of Lithium Carbonate from the Salton Sea.
100,000 tonnes of Li2CO3 is equivalent to 19,000 tonnes of Lithium
metal.
Lithium concentrations at different wells have been measured at
117ppm to 245ppm. The recent Obsidian Energy proposal shows a
Lithium content of 187ppm.
At a Lithium concentration of 187ppm, brine density of 1.2g/cc and
assuming an optimistic 50% recovery efficiency, Simbol will have to
process over 460,000m3 of brine per day. Comparing this to the oil
industry, this is equivalent to 2.9 mega barrels per day (2.9Mb/d), or one
third of Saudi oil production and more than the UK sector of the North
Sea at its peak. This production will be focused on a small geographic
area 7,000 acres in extent, located in some of the USA’s prime
agricultural land and an area which produces much of its fruit.
It is generally agreed for the SSKGRA that 22Wh of electricity can be
produced per kilogram of brine per hour. Calenergy’s 326MW plant
would therefore have a throughput of 14,800 tonnes or 32.6M lbs of
brine per hour. Calenergy were feeding 20M lbs/hr into their Zinc
Recovery Plant. Obsidian Energy stated for their 200MW proposal that
their 10 wells would have a combined flow rate of 15M lbs/hr out of the
reservoir but this refers to a two phase flow of steam and liquid brine
combined. Only the liquid brine contains minerals. This will now be
substantially reduced, to around half that flow rate when the plant is
finally built.
At a Zinc concentration of 320ppm, Calenergy had a Zinc throughput of
20M lbs x .00032 = 6400 lbs/hr or 2.9 tonnes/hr. Even at 100% annual
operating capacity of 8760 hours, the total Zinc throughput would only
have been 25,000 tonnes before considering recovery efficiencies. It is
not surprising that the 30,000tpy target could not be met.
If Simbol and/or Calenergy recommence mineral recovery from their
geothermal operation, this time to extract Lithium at a concentration of
187ppm and assuming 25% plant downtime and 50% recovery
efficiency, they will produce:
• ((20M lbs/hr x .000187ppm) / 2,200 lbs/tonne) x 6570hrs x 50% =
5,580 tpy of Lithium.
30
Meridian International Research 2008
Brines
• The Annual Lithium Production Potential from the Calenergy
Geothermal Facility on the Salton Sea would be 5,500 tonnes.
• This amount of Lithium could potentially produce 29,000 tonnes of
Li2CO3.
If the proposed Obsidian Energy plant is also taken into consideration,
assuming that the 7.5Mlb/hr of combined steam and brine is 50% liquid,
the annual Lithium Carbonate production potential would be an
additional 5,000 tpy for a total of 34,000 tpy of Li2CO3.
To compare these figures with oil industry flows, 20Mlb/hr of brine is
equivalent to 1.1Mb/d of fluid.
It is very unlikely that wells would be permitted to be drilled into the
geothermal resource purely to extract Lithium. Mineral recovery will only
be possible in conjunction with geothermal power generation. The
existing Calenergy operation causes a drop in reservoir pressure of 8psi
per year. The smaller (200MW) Obsidian Energy operation would
increase the pressure drop to 14psi per year. This is viewed as
sustainable for the 30 year life of the plant. However, the priority for this
resource is its use to generate electricity and the existing power
generating companies would not allow the waste of the geothermal
potential by a pure mineral recovery operation, not to mention the
reduction in their own power generating capacity that would be caused
by pressure reduction.
Therefore any increase in Lithium production will have to go hand in
hand with further development of geothermal power generating
capacity. Ultimately it is estimated that 1000Mwe of capacity could be
installed, double the existing Calenergy and originally proposed
Obsidian Energy plants combined. Therefore a projection of 100,000 tpy
of Li2CO3 from this resource is probably at the top end of what may
ultimately be achievable at an unknown point in the future. No pilot plant
has yet been established to test the proposed Lithium recovery method
and establish its viability.
A Solar Evaporation Pond system could not be used due to land
constraints, a relatively low evaporation rate, the problem of disposal or
processing the much greater quantity of other salts and the overriding
requirement for the spent brine to be re-injected back into the
geothermal reservoir. Therefore a direct adsorption technology would
have to be used, as Calenergy were doing to recover Zinc and as FMC
carry out at the Salar del Hombre Muerto. This approach requires fresh
water to flush the captured Lithium out of the adsorption beds and
recharge them. Water use is a very significant issue in this part of
Southern California where increased water demands are causing the
Salton Sea to shrink. The current plans for management of the Salton
Sea intend to let it shrink to a certain extent, which would open up more
of the geothermal resource for exploitation; however, these plans do not
take into account any extra water demands from future mineral recovery
operations. Water use is therefore another constraining factor that must
Meridian International Research 2008
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Future Potential Resources
be taken into account when considering the future Lithium production
potential of the Salton Sea.
Smackover Oilfield Brines, Arkansas
The Smackover oilfield brines are an extensive underground
geothermal brine lake. On top of the brine floats crude oil, with natural
gas above this. Oil production commenced in the 1920s and for
decades the brine was considered to be of no value. In the 1950s it was
realised that the brine contained very high levels of Bromine and
commercial production of Bromine commenced. The brine contains
many other minerals as well including Lithium.
Garrett states: “A few of the world’s oil field waters have a medium-high
Lithium content, with limited areas of the extensive Smackover brines in
the US perhaps being the highest. One zone in both Texas and
Arkansas has [Li] of 50-572ppm. The Texas brine has an average of
386ppm and the Arkansas brine averages 365ppm. The brine is found
at a depth of 1800m to 4800m. Brines are commercially processed to
recover Bromine”. Garrett estimates that the Smackover brine contains
1MT of Lithium.
The Smackover brines are currently the largest source of Bromine in the
world, accounting for 40% of world production. The largest Bromine
plant in the world was established there in 1961. Some 15,000 wells
pump out brine and send it via a pipeline network to two processing
plants where the bromine is extracted. The spent brine is then reinjected into the underground reservoir. Peak brine flows of 352Mb were
reached18 in 1997, falling to 300Mb in 1999, 321Mb in 2000 and 308Mb
in 2001. Bromine production in Arkansas is under growing competition
from producers on the Dead Sea.
We will now estimate how much Lithium could potentially be recovered
from the brine already processed for Bromine extraction.
Taking a recent average annual brine flow rate of 320Mb and assuming
an average Lithium content of 365ppm, with a specific gravity of 1.2g/cc,
the total Lithium content of the brine currently processed by the Bromine
industry would be 22,000 tonnes. At a 50% recovery rate, some 11,000
tonnes of Lithium could be recovered per annum from the existing brine
flows.
The Smackover brines have been exploited for Bromine by numerous
chemical companies over the years. The current operators are Great
Lakes Chemical Company and Tetra Technologies. Neither of them
have yet seen fit to commence Lithium recovery operations, despite the
significantly higher concentration of Lithium in this resource than at
Silver Peak, Nevada. Recovery of minerals other than Bromine has
been studied. If other factors do not militate against it, this resource may
18. Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission
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Meridian International Research 2008
Brines
be one of the most promising ones to develop, given that a large scale
brine extraction, processing and re-injection industry is already well
established. The Mg:Li ratio is about 4 or 5 to 1. ([Mg] = 1850ppm).
• The Potential Annual Lithium Production Rate from the Smackover
Bromine Brines of Arkansas would be 11,000 tonnes (55,000 tonnes
LCE).
As with the Salton Sea, a solar evaporation pond system would not be
viable, not least because of the need to re-inject the spent brine into the
reservoir to maintain pressure. On the other hand selective adsorption
technology requires a fresh water supply to flush and recharge the
adsorption beds. Union County and surrounding areas in southern
Arkansas where much of the brine extraction is concentrated were
declared “Critical Water Use” areas some years ago due to overexploitation of the underground Sparta Aquifer. Bromine production is
one of the major users of this aquifer. In the late 1990s the USGS
recommended that water use from the aquifer should be reduced by
70% to prevent irreparable damage to it with serious consequences for
drinking water supply. Although steps have been taken to reduce
exploitation of the aquifer, water use continues to be a high priority issue
in the area.
The impact of future Lithium and other mineral recovery on water
demand would therefore be additional factors that would be taken into
consideration before production could commence.
Bromine production from Smackover in 2006 was 240,000 tonnes, with
a total value of approximately $360 million. At a current Lithium
Carbonate price of $10,000 per tonne, 36,000 tonnes of Lithium
Carbonate would produce the same revenue. Approximately 7,000
tonnes of Lithium would be required to produce this. Therefore
production of even quite a limited quantity of Lithium Carbonate such as
5,000tpy would make a significant contribution to revenues from the
Smackover brines. The Dead Sea could not compete with Smackover in
Lithium production due to its very low Lithium content (18ppm).
Bonneville Salt Flats, Utah
The famous Bonneville Salt Flats west of Salt Lake City are cited by the
Bureau of Land Management (BLM) as being one of the most important
natural features in Utah. They attract thousands of visitors each year.
The subsurface brines contain 20-60ppm of Lithium and the Magnesium
concentration is 4000ppm. The Mg:Li ratio is therefore in the order of
100:1.
Potash (KCl) has been produced at Bonneville since 1917. Intrepid
Potash operate the remaining potash recovery facility at Wendover with
8,000 acres of solar evaporation ponds into which they pump 5 billion
gallons of brine per year19. Intrepid have invested several million dollars
19. www.intrepidpotash.com/loc/wendover.html accessed 15/05/08.
Meridian International Research 2008
33
Future Potential Resources
and cooperate with the BLM to pump salt back onto the flat to combat
salt loss from the lake bed.
Intrepid are the largest producer of potash in the USA and this
Wendover facility has capacity for 120,000 tonnes of potash per year.
They also produce Magnesium Chloride, due to the high Magnesium
content.
At 40ppm, the 5 billion gallons of brine processed every year contain
some 900 tonnes of Lithium. At an optimistic 50% recovery, some 2,000
tonnes of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent could be produced each year
from the current operation, compared to Potash production 60 times as
high.
• The Potential Annual Lithium Production Rate from the Bonneville
Salt Flats of Utah would be 450 tonnes or 2000 tonnes LCE.
Lithium recovery from the Bonneville potash operation has been
studied20. The potash end liquors reach a Lithium content of 5000ppm.
Process tests allowed bischofite to be harvested throughout the year,
involving complex heating and cooling of the liquors. The very high
Mg:Li ratio means that recovery of high purity Lithium is very difficult.
In 1985 the Bonneville Salt Flats were designated an Area of Critical
Environmental Concern due to their unique geology, history and scenic
beauty21.
Dead Sea
The Dead Sea has a Lithium concentration of only 10 - 20 ppm and very
high ratios of other minerals. The Mg:Li ratio is 2000:1. The brine is
concentrated in solar ponds in Israel and Jordan to produce potash and
the end liquor often has Lithium levels of 30ppm. Laboratory studies
have been carried out [Garrett, 2004] into extraction of this Lithium
without economic success.
Other Chilean/ Argentinian/ Bolivian Salars
There are many other salars in the Andes which have been surveyed for
their Lithium potential. The best ones are covered in the literature
(Garrett, 2004). These range in Lithium content from 150 to 400ppm.
For instance, the Salar de Surrie lies to the south of the Salar de
Atacama at an elevation of 4,480m (14,700 feet). It is 150km2 in area
and has a Lithium content of 340 - 389ppm. Evaporation rates will be
much lower and irreversible environmental damage inevitable to a
remote unspoiled region. The Salar de Lagunos has an [Li] of 412ppm.
The absolute size of both resources is very small in comparison with
Atacama or Uyuni. The Salar de Copaisa in Bolivia, north of Uyuni,
20. US Patent 4,287,163 DE Garrett, M Laborde, 1981
21. www.utah.com/playgrounds/bonneville-salt.htm, accessed 15/05/08.
34
Meridian International Research 2008
Seawater
covers 2,500km2 and contains only 200,000 tonnes of Lithium. The
concentration is therefore very low.
China
The Chinese salt lakes have been studied extensively for their potential
Lithium and other mineral resources. Garret cites Lithium resources for
the Zhabuye Salt Lake and Qinghai (Taijinaier) Salt Lake of 1MT each.
Zhabuye contains 500-1000ppm of Lithium, has been extensively
studied for its Lithium extraction potential and a 5,000 tpy Li2CO3 plant
started operation in 2005. Potash has been extracted in Qinghai for
many years and studies on extracting Lithium date back to 1983. The
large 35,000tpy Li2CO3 plant opened in Golmud (Qinghai) in 2007 will
take some time to reach full capacity.
A factor that could be considered in the light of recent events is the
status of Tibet. The Tibetan-in-exile group "Stop Mining Tibet" seeks to
lobby public opinion against western mining companies to cease
operations in Tibet, on the grounds that the Tibetan people receive no
benefit from the exploitation of their mineral resources by the Chinese
occupants. Sterling Group Ventures who are developing the DXC salt
lake resource are one of the companies specifically cited by this
organisation.
3.4
Seawater
Seawater has been promoted as a virtually inexhaustible source of
Lithium since the 1970s. We now examine the Lithium extraction
potential of Seawater.
As a comparative yardstick, let us consider the River Nile, one of the
largest rivers in the world.
The Average Discharge Flow Rate of the River Nile is 300,000,000
cubic metres of water per day. This is 22.2 times the flow rate of the
entire Global Oil Industry (85Mb/d).
The density of Seawater is 1.206 tonnes per cubic metre.
Therefore if the Nile was Seawater, the flow rate in weight terms would
be 360M tonnes per day.
Seawater contains 0.17ppm of Lithium by weight.
Therefore a flow of Seawater equivalent to the River Nile would contain
61.5 tonnes of Lithium per day.
In one year, a flow of Seawater equivalent to the River Nile would thus
contain 22,500 tonnes of Lithium, or about the same as current Global
Contained Lithium Production.
Meridian International Research 2008
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Future Potential Resources
If all the Lithium could be extracted and converted to Battery Grade
Lithium Carbonate, this would be sufficient for
22500 tonnes x 5.28 x 1000kg / 16kWh x 1.4kg
or 5,300,000 GM Volts per year.
In recent laboratory scale tests on extracting Lithium from Seawater,
Saga University in Japan extracted 30g of Lithium Chloride (LiCl) from
140,000 litres of Seawater.
140,000 litres of Seawater contains 28.7g of Lithium.
30g of LiCl contains 5g of Lithium.
Therefore some 17.4% of the Lithium in Seawater was extracted by this
process.
This means that to produce enough Lithium Carbonate from Seawater
for 5.3M GM Volts one would need to process not One River Nile but
Five River Niles of Seawater each year (not counting subsequent yield
losses for producing the high purity Li2CO3 required).
So an equivalence can be established between One River Nile and One
Million GM Volts per year.
• One River Nile Flowrate of Seawater or 22.2 times the Continuous
Flowrate of the Global Oil Industry is required to produce Sufficient
Lithium for One Million GM Volts.
This does not take into account the volumes of fresh water and
Hydrochloric Acid required to flush out the unwanted minerals and
extract the Lithium from the Lithium Manganese Dioxide adsorption
columns.
Let us compare this to Global Oil Production of 85 million barrels per
day.
One Barrel of Oil contains 42 US Gallons, giving a Total Daily Oil
Volume of 85M x 42 = 3,570 Million US gallons per day or 13.5 Million
cubic metres per day.
Therefore the Total Flow Rate of the entire Global Oil Industry is 13.5M
cubic metres per day or less than one twentieth of the 300M cubic
metres of Seawater that would need to be processed just for 1M cars.
• A Seawater processing rate equivalent to the entire Global Oil
Industry would produce sufficient Lithium at 100% Extraction
Efficiency for 45,000 GM Volts per year
If the Global Oil Industry was to process 85Mb/d of Seawater instead of
Oil, the Total Lithium Content would be 2.77 tonnes per day or 1000
tonnes per year - one twentieth of existing world Lithium production
even before the real extraction efficiency of 20% and Li2CO3 purification
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Meridian International Research 2008
Seawater
losses are taken into account. At a realistic recovery efficiency, some
6,000 GM Volts at the most could be produced per year from a
Seawater flow rate equivalent to the entire global oil industry.
It is clear that Seawater will never be a viable source of supply for
meaningful quantities of Lithium.
If production was established at the Dead Sea where the Lithium
concentration is 18ppm or 100 times higher than in Seawater, then
some 300 tonnes of Lithium per day would pass through a processing
plant with a volume capacity equivalent to the entire current Global Oil
Production of 85Mb/d, processing some 16 million tonnes of brine per
day. At 20% extraction and conversion to battery grade Li2CO3, this
would be sufficient Lithium for less than 5M GM Volts per annum. The
engineering scale of the operation could only be described as Pharonic.
Meridian International Research 2008
37
Future Potential Resources
38
Meridian International Research 2008
4
Production and
Market Factors
4.1
Introduction
This chapter summarises the main Lithium producing resources and
estimates potential and possible Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE)
production in 2010 and 2015.
Since the early 1990s, global LCE production has increased from less
than 50,000 tonnes per year to reach 80,000 tpy or more. Batteries now
account for about 20% of total Lithium metal demand.
Total Lithium demand has therefore been growing at 4-5% p.a. but more
recently demand from the battery sector has been growing at 25% p.a.,
leading to ongoing shortages of supply. This shortage is leading the
existing producers to increase production and prompting others to
consider entering the market, before demand from the automotive
industry has even commenced.
Consideration of future availability of Lithium for the automotive industry
therefore needs to consider a number of factors:
1. Future overall production and supply of Lithium Carbonate.
2. Production of the high purity Battery Grade 99.95% Li2CO3 required for
3.
4.
5.
6.
(PH)EV applications.
Competition for Lithium products by other, established, market sectors.
Security of supply and reliability of suppliers.
Potential price volatility.
Environmental sustainability and compatibility with the concept of the
“Green Car”.
After presenting an analysis of production potential from already
producing and possible future Lithium resources, this chapter proceeds
to discuss these other factors of equal importance in evaluating the
suitability of Lithium as a strategic material for the automotive industry.
Meridian International Research 2008
39
Production and Market Factors
4.2
Lithium Carbonate Production
The table below summarises the main Lithium Resources, Recoverable
Reserves and Potential Chemical Grade Lithium Carbonate production
to 2020.
LITHIUM RESOURCES/ PRODUCTION ASSESSMENTa
TABLE 4
Deposit
Resource
(Li metal)
Reserve
(Li metal)
Current
Li2CO3
Production
2007
Probable
Li2CO3
Production
2010
Optimum
Li2CO3
Production
2015
Optimum
Li2CO3
Production
2020
Salar de Atacama
3.0MT
1MT
42,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Hombre Muerto
0.8MT
0.4MT
15,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Clayton Lake
0.3MT
0.118MT
9,000
9,000
8,000
8,000
Lithium Brines
Salar del Rincon
0.5MT
0.25MT
-
10,000
20,000
25,000
Salar de Uyuni
5.5MT
0.6MT
-
-
15,000
30,000
Zhabuye
1.25MT
0.75MT
5,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
Qinghai
1.0MT
0.5MT
10,000
20,000
40,000
50,000
DXC
0.16MT
0.08MT
-
5,000
5,000
5,000
Salar Olaroz
0.32MT
0.16MT
-
-
5,000
5,000
Salton Sea
1.0MT
-
-
-
5,000
10,000
Smackover
1.0MT
-
-
-
10,000
25,000
Bonneville
-
-
-
-
-
Searles Lake
0.02MT
-
-
-
-
Great Salt Lake
0.53MT
-
-
-
-
Dead Sea
2.0MT
-
-
-
-
Greenbushes
-
-
-
-
Bernic Lake
-
-
-
-
Osterbotten
-
1,000
6,000
-
Bikita
-
-
-
-
Hectorite Clay
-
-
-
-
Jiajika
-
-
-
-
Brazil
-
-
-
-
81,000
130,000
234,000
308,000
Non-Automotive
Demand (High)
85,000
109,000
203,000
263,000
Available for
Automotive
-
21,000
31,000
45,000
Minerals
Total
4MT
a. Figures in tonnes except MT = Megatonnes
40
Meridian International Research 2008
Lithium Carbonate Production
The table shows current LCE production in 2007, likely production in
2010 and possible production in 2015 - 2020.
The figures for 2010 are what we estimate to be a reasonable and
realistic forecast based on known current developments.
The figures for 2015 and 2020 are optimistic projections (High
Production in the following scenarios) based on an optimum conjunction
of events to develop new resources and smooth development of
resources already under exploitation.
China
The most significant increase in Lithium Carbonate production planned
over the next 5 to 10 years is in China. The Chinese are projecting a
very large increase in production to 55,000tpy of LCE by Citic Guoan at
Qinghai (Taijinaier) alone by 2010. We have chosen to be more realistic
in our assessment. Much of this increase may be destined for domestic
consumption and the nascent Chinese EV industry. It is also more
difficult to produce battery grade Li2CO3 from brine sourced Lithium
Carbonate than it is from hard rock mineral produced Lithium
Carbonate. Although brine sourced Li2CO3 is much cheaper than that
produced form minerals (spodumene) it has higher level of impurities
(sodium, boron, calcium, magnesium) and is more technically
demanding to purify. As the Chinese switch from Li2CO3 produced from
imported or domestic spodumene to Li2CO3 produced from domestic
brine, new and more complex processing will have to be established.
This may account for reports that Chinese sourced Li2CO3 is no longer
being accepted by Japanese LiIon battery manufacturers due to
contamination with impurities. The largest manufacturer of laptop
computer batteries, Sony, produced 20 million LiIon laptop batteries in
2007, accounting for 25% of the market. They had to recall 10 million of
them due to quality problems - one eighth of all the laptop computer
batteries sold worldwide. This was the largest such recall to date.
Therefore production of LiIon batteries will not necessarily increase
simply in accordance with extra Lithium Carbonate production.
Other Areas
Outside of China, the Salar de Atacama remains the main location
where Lithium Carbonate production may be able to be increased
significantly over the next 10 years, but at great environmental cost.
Successful large scale production from the Salar de Uyuni is not a fait
accompli - production is unlikely to reach current Atacama levels for
many years.
The most attractive undeveloped resource outside South America may
be the Smackover Brine of Arkansas. This has a relatively high [Li] of
365ppm and a large brine processing and bromine extraction industry is
already in place.
Meridian International Research 2008
41
Production and Market Factors
4.3
Current Lithium Market Factors
Existing Market Demand
20% of the Lithium produced today is used by the battery sector, an
increase from 9% in 2000. Batteries are the fastest growing source of
Lithium demand, increasing by 25% CAGR according to Roskill
Information Sources.
This is borne out by the global increase in demand for laptop computers
and mobile telephones. Some 78 million laptop computers were sold in
2007, a 23% rise over 2006. In April 2008, Quanta Computer, the
world’s largest contract laptop computer manufacturer, increased their
2008 sales forecast22 from 36M to 40M units, versus 32M units sold in
2007. This is a 25% increase over 2007.
In early May 2008 it was reported that a shortage of LiIon batteries is
restricting laptop computer sales23.
The potential for further growth is illustrated by the One Laptop per Child
(OLPC) foundation project to supply each of the 2 billion children in the
developing world with a $100 laptop computer. OLPC have placed a
contract with Quanta to commence manufacture. Other companies are
also developing ultra low cost laptops and this sector is seen as a new
high growth market. Shipments of laptop computers could easily
continue to grow by 25% or more for many years, fuelled by these new
low cost products. At 80M units per year, it would take 25 years to
supply 2 billion laptops. If the OLPC project is serious, production of
200M laptop computers per year for the OLPC market alone would be
required, not including growth from the existing market and other new
markets.
Similarly, mobile phone sales have increased as follows: 2003 - 517M;
2004 - 670M; 2007- 1,114M; 2008 (projected) - 1,225M. New products
such as 3G phones and the myriad of other portable devices will
continue to fuel high growth rates.
It can therefore be seen that Lithium demand from the existing battery
sector will continue to grow by at least 25% per annum, far outstripping
overall Lithium market growth of 4-5% p.a.
In a recent presentation, Admiralty Resources comment that expanding
Lithium production may still not meet global demand (from existing
applications) and that current market conditions suggest a 30% shortfall
in supply of Li2CO3.
22. www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/145259/
worlds_largest_laptop_pc_maker_raises_shipment_target.html, accessed 23/05/08.
23. www.channelregister.co.uk/2008/05/06/batteries_compal_shortage/ “Battery
shortage leaves Compal Forecast Flat”, 6/05/08, accessed 23/05/08.
42
Meridian International Research 2008
Current Lithium Market Factors
Talison Minerals (owner of the Greenbushes mine) also reported in late
2007 that they could have sold an extra 5kT LCE of mineral
concentrates if it had been available, as demand for heat resistant
cooking tops in Europe continues to increase.
Market Projection Scenarios
If battery grade Lithium Carbonate Demand from existing applications
continues to grow at 25% CAGR, the effects on availability for
automotive applications will be very significant.
In the following table, we show the effect of Lithium Carbonate demand
from the existing battery sector continuing to grow at 25% CAGR while
other existing market applications continue to grow by 3-4%.
TABLE 5
POTENTIAL EXISTING LITHIUM CARBONATE APPLICATIONS
DEMAND (NON-AUTOMOTIVE)
Year
Battery
Grade
Li2CO3
Demand
(tonnes)
Other
Grade
Li2CO3
Demand
(tonnes)
Nominal
Li2CO3
Demand
(tonnes)
Battery
Market
Share
2006
15,000
60,000
75.000
20%
2007
18,750
63,000
81,750
23%
2008
23,400
66,000
89,400
26%
2009
29,300
69,000
98,300
30%
2010
36,600
72,600
109,200
33%
2011
45,800
76,000
121,000
38%
2012
57,220
79,700
136,900
42%
2013
71,500
83,500
155,000
46%
2014
89,400
87,400
176,800
51%
2015
111,700
91,000
202,700
55%
We projected earlier than total chemical grade Li2CO3 production could,
under optimum conditions, reach 234,000 tonnes in 2015. This would
leave only some 30,000 tonnes of Chemical Grade Li2CO3 available for
automotive use in 2015, including Chinese production (and assuming
battery grade processing capacity also rises accordingly and not taking
into account process yields on purifying chemical grade into battery
grade Li2CO3). This would be sufficient for a maximum of 1.3 million GM
Volt class vehicles worldwide including Chinese supply.
If production follows a more conservative growth profile (Low Production
Scenario), with no development of untried resources such as the Salton
Sea and Smackover Brines and environmental constraints limiting
growth at the Salar de Atacama and the Salar de Uyuni, global Li2CO3
production might well reach only 170,000 tonnes by 2015 and 220,000
tonnes by 2020.
Meridian International Research 2008
43
Production and Market Factors
Current market supply is so tight and the potential sources of supply are
so limited that relatively small variations in the amount of Lithium
Carbonate produced in future from each resource have a major impact
on future automotive availability.
Figure 13 shows these relative scenarios up to 2015, in which demand
continues to be fuelled by high growth from the global portable
electronics society, as well as a low demand growth scenario.
FIGURE 13
LCE NON-AUTOMOTIVE DEMAND AND TOTAL SUPPLY
LCE Demand vs Supply
2007 - 2015
350000
300000
Tonnes LCE
250000
200000
B
High Production
J
High Non-Auto
Demand
H
Low Production
F
Low Non-Auto
Demand
150000
J
H
BF
J
FBH
B
H
J
F
2007
2008
2009
100000
B
H
J
F
2010
B
H
J
F
B
B
J
H
B
B
J
H
J
H
J
H
F
F
F
F
2012
2013
2014
2015
50000
2011
Year
Figure 13 shows that a continuation of current high growth in portable
electronics LiIon demand combined with a more constrained production
growth scenario will lead to insufficient supply for existing markets in
2013.
In Figure 14 below, we show the following scenarios out to 2020:
1. The High Non-Automotive Demand Scenario encounters sharply
reduced portable electronics demand after 2014 so that the overall LCE
demand increase falls to 4% p.a. again by 2020.
2. Low Non-Automotive Demand Scenario - very conservative growth in
existing LCE market demand from 2007 - 2020 of 4% p.a., i.e. a
continuation of the historical 1990 - early 2000s LCE growth rate.
3. High Production nearly quadrupling and Low Production nearly tripling
current LCE production from 2007 to 2020.
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Meridian International Research 2008
Current Lithium Market Factors
LCE NON-AUTOMOTIVE DEMAND AND TOTAL SUPPLY - 2020
LCE Demand vs Supply
Scenarios 2007 - 2020
350000
300000
250000
Tonnes LCE
FIGURE 14
200000
150000
B
High Production
J
High Non-Auto
Demand
H
Low Production
F
Low Non-Auto
Demand
B
B HJ
100000
BH HJ F
BFHJ FJ F
B
HJ
F
B
HJ
F
B
HJ
F
B
B
B
J
B
J
B
J
J
H
J
H
H
H
H
F
F
F
F
F
B
B
J
J
H
H
F
F
50000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
• In the High Production scenario combined with High Non-Automotive
Demand driven by continued growth in the global portable
electronics society, some 30,000 tonnes of Li2CO3 will be available
for automotive use in 2015 and (with sharply reduced growth rates
after 2014) 45,000 tonnes in 2020.
• In the best case combination of the High Production scenario
combined with the Low Non-Automotive Demand scenario in which
existing LCE demand grows overall at only 4% p.a. from 2007 to
2020, some 110,000 tonnes of Li2CO3 will be available for
automotive use in 2015 and 160,000 tonnes in 2020. This would be
nominally sufficient for 5M and 7.5M GM Volt class vehicles
respectively.
• In the Low Production scenario where environmental factors are not
disregarded and untried new resources take time to develop
combined with the conservative Low Non-Automotive Demand
Scenario (4% growth p.a.), some 50,000 tonnes of Li2CO3 will be
available for automotive use in 2015 and 80,000 tonnes in 2020. This
would be nominally sufficient for 2.2M and 3.6M GM Volt class
vehicles respectively.
• If LCE demand growth in the High Non-Automotive Demand scenario
does not slow down after 2014, it will outstrip even the High
Production scenario well before 2020.
Meridian International Research 2008
45
Production and Market Factors
Production of Battery Grade (99.95%) Lithium Carbonate
The chemical grade Lithium Carbonate produced from brine and
previously from spodumene is not suitable for use in batteries. It must
be further purified to at least 99.95% purity.
The processes used to produce this high purity Battery Grade Lithium
Carbonate from Chemical Grade involves several reaction and
recrystallisation steps plus in some cases passing through an ion
exchange resin24 to produce the ultra high purity product. Process
losses occur on each step.
The highest yield that might be expected with these processes25 is
about 70%. Therefore it is possible that only 70% of the primary Lithium
Carbonate production may be processed into high purity battery grade
reagent. Unpurified Li2CO3 is recirculated back to improve yields, but
then there are further yield losses in producing the battery electrolyte
salts used in LiIon batteries (LiPF6 and LiBF4).
Therefore it may be prudent to reduce the gross Lithium Carbonate
production and potential figures in this report by 30% to account for
processing losses into battery grade material suitable for Electric
Vehicles.
Production Factors
SQM are investing $52M in their Antofagasta Lithium Carbonate plant to
increase capacity from 32,000 tpa to 48,000 tpa. This does not include
extra raw material imports (soda ash), extra tanker trucks to bring the
LiCl brine down from the Salar de Atacama nor the increased number of
extraction pumps and increased evaporation pond area required. The
brine tankered from the evaporation ponds to the Li2CO3 plant contains
6% Lithium; therefore the volume will increase from 85,000m3 to some
130,000 m3 per year, with a 50% increase in tanker road traffic.
To produce 1 ton of Li2CO3, more than three times that weight of LiCl
brine has to be tankered down from the Salar and 1.8 times as much
weight of Soda Ash has to be imported. Therefore nearly 5 times as
much weight of material has to be transported to the plant as leaves it in
finished product.
As we have illustrated, it seems likely that 50% of the very best Lithium
deposit in the world, the 3000- 4000ppm heart of the Salar de Atacama,
has already been extracted. Certainly, at least 20% has been extracted.
If 50% has been extracted, only some 500,000 tonnes LCE remains in
the high concentration core, which by now will be much lower in
concentration than in 1984. It is probable that in the next decade,
increasing investment and resources will be required to maintain
production. If the current [Li] is 3,000ppm, then extending production
24. See US Patent 7,214,355 for a description of various processes
25. See US Patent 6,592,832
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Current Lithium Market Factors
into the wider areas of the salar where [Li] is 1500ppm will require
double the number of wells and area of ponds for the same production.
Environmental Impact Assessments will be required beforehand. The
environmental impact would undoubtedly be severe.
We have also illustrated that the highest grade central Lithium node in
the Salar de Uyuni contains only 500,000 - 600,000 tonnes of Lithium, in
a much more spread out and thin deposit than the Salar de Atacama. A
trench system of production similar to that at Bonneville may have to be
adopted causing significant environmental damage. It is evident that the
vast majority of the 5MT to 9MT resource in the salt pan remains
inaccessible without destruction of the salar.
It must also be remembered that Lithium Chloride (and subsequently
Lithium Carbonate) is not produced from brines in isolation. The major
product of these operations are potassium and magnesium salts, which
in any case have to be precipitated out as solid and removed before
Lithium Chloride can be produced. In 2001, SQM produced 650,000
tonnes of potash (KCl), 150,000 tonnes of K2SO4 and only 21,000
tonnes of Li2CO3.
ADY’s main bulk products at the Salar del Rincon will be KCl and
Na2SO4.
Therefore the issue will arise of marketing the other salts in a
competitive market and the cost of producing them and disposing them
back in the salar if they cannot be sold. Once the other solid salts have
been precipitated out, they cannot be easily disposed of back in the
salar but only left on the surface. Therefore increased Lithium
Carbonate production cannot be considered in isolation from the major
global market for muriate of potash (KCl) and other salts.
Battery Recycling
The European Union have set a mandatory target for 45% of portable
equipment batteries in the EU member to be recycled by 2016.
In 2006, 20% of all batteries were recycled; however, the number of
LiIon and NiMH batteries recycled fell compared to the previous year.
LiIon recycling fell from 635 tonnes in 2005 to 547 tonnes in 2006. The
level of recycling in the Eastern European member states is particularly
low.
As with all EU directives, there are widespread concerns that the 2016
target will not be met.
There are no such recycling directives in the USA.
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Production and Market Factors
4.4
Conclusion
It is apparent that if Lithium Carbonate demand from the portable
electronics sector continues its current high growth rates during the next
decade, intense competition will arise between the automotive industry
and the electronics industry for supply of LiIon batteries. Planned and
possible Lithium Carbonate production increases will not be able to
meet demand from both sectors. The portable electronics sector is
experiencing chronic shortages of Lithium today and its growth
prospects, driven by new low cost products aimed at new multi-billion
unit markets, do not appear to be undimmed.
Foreseeable Lithium production increases may be able to more or less
match demand from the growing portable electronics society until 2015,
at the risk of causing permanent environmental damage to the Andean
Altiplano.
Realistic Lithium production increases have no prospect of also meeting
the demands of an entire product and propulsion revolution in the
Global Automotive Industry in the next decade.
Even if non-automotive Lithium demand was to level off at 120,000 tpy
in the mid 2010s (50% higher than current demand), the level of surplus
Li2CO3 possibly available in the optimistic High Production Scenario in
2015 could only meet demand for 4 to 5 million GM Volt class vehicles
and up to 8 million GM Volt class vehicles worldwide in 2020, or a small
fraction of global automotive requirements.
Finally, new Chinese brine-sourced Li2CO3 cannot necessarily be relied
upon by battery manufacturers in other parts of the world, for quality
reasons, domestic EV demand and Chinese policies to reduce exports
of strategic materials as currently experienced with rare earth metals.
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5
The Wider
Environment
5.1
Geopolitical Environment
In Chile, exploration and exploitation of Lithium is considered a strategic
activity and along with offshore hydrocarbons and the production of
nuclear energy, is the sole preserve of the state. In 1982, Chile passed a
law ruling that as a strategic material Lithium could not be awarded in
concession to private entities. Under the Chilean Constitution, Lithium is
State Property. There have been moves by the Chilean Senate’s
Mineral Committee to investigate the concessions awarded to SQM and
SCL for Lithium extraction under previous Governments. Technically,
they might be illegal. Certainly Chile, Argentina and Bolivia are well
aware of the strategic implications of Lithium both for automotive
batteries and for future nuclear power technologies. Lithium was used in
the first fusion bombs and is still used for this application. Both Lithium 6
and 7 would be used in a future magnetically confined "hot-fusion"
technology. In 2006, construction of the international ITER fusion
research centre at Cadarache in France was agreed and fusion with a
Lithium plasma will be one of the research avenues.
Chile has proposed the establishment of an "Institute of Lithium" to bring
together SQM, SCL and Lithium users with the Chilean Atomic Energy
Commission to look at development of Lithium industries in the country,
such as Li-Al alloys, LiIon batteries, Nuclear Fusion and Cement. With
their market leading position of 36% of global Li2CO3 supply and the
best resource in the world, there is likely to be renewed impetus to
develop value added products from their Lithium resources.
In Argentina, the incoming Kirchner government have imposed a 10%
export duty on all mineral exports to boost government receipts.
Everywhere in South America, the people are demanding accountability,
a much greater financial return from the exploitation of their immense
mineral wealth by foreign companies and protection of the environment.
Salta Province in Northern Argentina, where the two Lithium salars are
located, is described by local activists as being in a state of war against
the “mining invasion”.
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The Wider Environment
A cause celêbre in Chile is the Pascua Lama gold mine project by
Barrick Resources. Barrick intended to "remove" three glaciers to gain
access to the gold deposit, depriving 70,000 farmers of their water
supply from the glacier melt water. The agriculture of an entire valley
would be devastated. Needless to say, this does not endear foreign
mining companies to the local populace. Despite receiving an
environmental permit the project has not yet been able to proceed.
In Brazil, all lithium-related activities such as the industrialisation, import
and export of lithium minerals, production of organic and inorganic
chemical products and alloys are controlled by CNEN (Nuclear Energy
National Commission) due to its nuclear applications.
It is apparent that Lithium will become a more and more strategic
material. The South American nations intend to develop free of what
they perceive as post war US neo-colonialism as evidenced by the new
wave of political leaders who have been swept to power in recent years:
not just Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales or Luiz de Silva but also Michelle
Bachelet in Chile and Cristina Kirchner in Argentina. In Chile, the largest
producer of Lithium in the world with the best quality resource, Lithium is
legally State Property. Just as Resource Nationalism is increasingly
being felt from the oil producing countries who are increasing their own
consumption and reducing exports to conserve oil for future
requirements, Chile, Bolivia and Argentina may well follow the same
path. South America will also require electric vehicles and might decide
Lithium is worth more to them to maintain their own motive power.
Chile’s current Lithium Carbonate production of about 45,000 tonnes
could nominally support manufacture of 2M GM Volt sized 16kWh
batteries per year. Future production increases could support a
domestic LiIon battery industry. Chile and Argentina may have sufficient
leverage in future to persuade foreign LiIon battery manufacturers to
establish local production facilities in return for privileged access to
Lithium Carbonate.
In April 2008, the US Navy reactivated its Fourth Fleet to patrol Latin
American and Caribbean waters. The fleet was dissolved in 1950 after
the Second World Water but is being revived to send a signal to the
socialist governments of South America. Ecuador intend to shut down
the US military base in the country and both Brazil and Argentina have
protested about US plans to install a new military base in Paraguay near
the Bolivian gas fields. Latin America could be self sufficient in oil for
many years should it choose to reduce exports. The idea of a South
American Defence Council has been relaunched by Brazil, specifically
excluding the USA.
The trend is clear. The supply of 70% of the world’s Lithium will
increasingly come under state control as oil exports are politically
controlled by the OPEC nations today. Unlike OPEC which has in
general shared little of its oil wealth with the general populace, the New
Governments of South America see themselves as more socially
responsible and unlike the previous regimes are not politically aligned
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Nuclear Fusion
with the USA: indeed there is a very strong backlash in Latin America
against the real or perceived neo-colonialism of US foreign policy.
In the current US climate of "reducing dependence on foreign oil",
exchanging dependence on oil from perceived hostile nations of the
Middle East, whose governments have in fact been politically allied with
the USA, for dependence on "Foreign Lithium" from nations where both
the populace and the governments are no longer sympathetic to the
USA, would be unwise.
China’s Lithium brine deposits are located in Tibet. This is also a
politically sensitive region. While there is no doubt that stability will be
maintained and there is no physical risk to Li2CO3 supply to the Chinese
LiIon battery industry, an ethical and moral issue might arise in basing
Electric Vehicles on Lithium from Tibet.
With much of the world’s Lithium Ion battery manufacturing capacity
installed in China and China’s growing need for sustainable oil free
transportation, it would not be surprising to see China prioritise its own
EV industry. Planned Chinese Lithium Carbonate production increases
could easily be absorbed by a domestic EV industry, leaving little
available for export. As the dollar becomes weaker there becomes less
and less incentive to export to the USA.
From a security point of view, the USA could redevelop its domestic
Lithium resources and set up domestic LiIon battery manufacturing
capacity as a strategic asset if the automotive industry intends to rely on
LiIon batteries as the sole solution rather than also adopting other
battery technologies which use unconstrained resources.
5.2
Nuclear Fusion
This report will not consider in detail the extra demands a future Nuclear
Fusion infrastructure would place on Lithium supply. However, the ITER
reactor under construction at Cadarache in France will test the concept
of using Lithium to breed Tritium for subsequent fusion with Deuterium.
Various figures have been quoted in the industry stating that a 1GW
power station would require a Lithium blanket weighing 146 tons,
replaceable 5 times during the reactor life and would consume 3 tons of
Lithium per annum. US installed electrical power capacity is
approximately 460GW.
Lithium will be used to produce tritium in magnetically confined nuclear
fusion reactors using deuterium and tritium as the fuel. Tritium does not
occur naturally and will be produced by surrounding the reacting plasma
with a ‘blanket’ containing lithium where neutrons from the deuteriumtritium reaction in the plasma will react with the lithium to produce more
tritium. (6Li + n > 4He + 3H). Various means of performing this will be
tested at the ITER reactor.
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51
The Wider Environment
Other figures state that 2MT of Lithium would be required over 20 years
just to replace current fission reactors and operate those new Fusion
Reactors. This would be between 30% and 50% of Global Lithium
Reserves.
5.3
Environmental and Ecological
Factors
Lithium is a rare and scarce metal found only in significant quantities in
two remote, unspoiled and fragile parts of the Earth: the Andes and
Tibet. The Salar de Uyuni is quite justifiably recognised as a Natural
Wonder of the World. To extract enough Lithium to meet even 10% of
global automotive demand would cause irreversible and widespread
damage to these environments, that have taken millennia to form. On
the other hand, the alternative and superior battery technologies of
ZnAir and Zebra (NaNiFeCl) depend on common metals and materials
that are already the mainstay of industrial civilisation and found
ubiquitously.
The concept of the “Green Car” is incompatible with the fact that if LiIon
batteries are used to propel it, it will be produced at the expense of two
of the most fragile and beautiful ecosystems that are left on this planet.
The degradation of the salars and effects on their wildlife will be hard to
defend and justify, when it was completely avoidable by using metals
that are already well established in our industrial infrastructure.
It would be irresponsible to despoil these regions for a material which
can only ever be produced in sufficient quantities to serve a niche
market of luxury vehicles for the top end of the market. We live in an age
of Environmental Responsibility where the folly of the last two hundred
years of despoilment of the Earth’s resources are clear to see. We
cannot have “Green Cars” that have been produced at the expense of
some of the world’s last unspoiled and irreplaceable wilderness. We
have a responsibility to rectify our errors and not fall into the same traps
as in the past. This means using materials and resources which cause
an absolute minimum of environmental damage and which allow Electric
Vehicles to be produced not for a niche market but for the mass market.
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6
Conclusion
Realistic analysis of the world’s Lithium deposits and potential sources
shows that maximum sustainable production of battery grade Lithium
Carbonate will only be sufficient for very limited numbers of Electric
Vehicles. Projections of overall Lithium Carbonate production must take
into account that a much higher purity of 99.95% is required for LiIon
battery production. Therefore battery grade Li2CO3 availability will
further lag behind overall industrial Li2CO3 production.
Existing demand for Li2CO3 for portable electronics batteries is
stretching the ability of the Lithium producers to keep pace even before
the first automotive batteries 100 times as large as a laptop computer
battery reach the market.
If all future Li2CO3 production increases are purified into battery grade
material, it will still only be sufficient in the most optimum scenario for at
most 4 to 8 million GM Volt class vehicles worldwide per annum by 2015
- 2020.
It appears that at least 20% and quite possibly as much as 50% of the
highest grade Lithium deposit in the world, within the Salar de Atacama,
has already been extracted at a production rate 10 times lower than that
required to sustain automotive industry requirements.
The Salar de Uyuni is a very thinly dispersed resource and its realistic
producible Lithium reserve is only in the order of 300,000 tonnes. This
combination of factors at the two largest Lithium salt deposits means
that great caution and realism must be exercised in forecasting potential
future global Lithium production volumes.
Increasing Lithium Carbonate production significantly will destroy some
of the most beautiful and unique ecosystems in the world for a material
that can only supply a niche automotive market. LiIon powered cars are
not “Green Cars” but Environmentally Destructive Cars.
The geopolitical scenario of a world outside China being dependent on
the Lithium Triangle of Bolivia, Argentina and Chile for nearly all of its
future Lithium Carbonate supply should be sufficient in itself to give
Meridian International Research 2008
53
Conclusion
pause to the headlong adoption of LiIon batteries by the automotive
industry.
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