Preparations for the 2010 FIFA World Cup: Vulnerability
and Threat of Terrorism (WP)
Anneli Botha
Area: International Terrorism
Working Paper 14/2010
16/4/2010
Elcano Royal Institute
Madrid – Spain
www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_eng
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Preparations for the 2010 FIFA World Cup: Vulnerability
and Threat of Terrorism (WP)
Anneli Botha *
Although South Africa successfully hosted a number of sport events (Rugby World Cup
in 1995, African Cup of Nations in 1996, the All African Games in 1999 and the Cricket
World Cup in 2003) as well as other events, such as World Summit on Sustainable
Development in 2002 and the Non‐Aligned Movement summit in 1998 that attracted
regional and international attention, hosting the FIFA World Cup in 2010 is clearly
different –one only needs to take domestic and international attention and interest into
consideration–. On a national level, hosting the event called for a revamping of
infrastructure, including the building of new stadiums. All events are confronted with
different security threats. One cannot, for instance, compare the Olympic Games with a
political event, or even hosting the FIFA World Cup with hosting the Cricket World Cup,
mentioning two sports events that have been targeted or against which terrorist attacks
have been planned. Based on this reality, disregarding the potential threat of terrorism of
the FIFA World Cup in South Africa because it was never a target of a major terrorist
attack will be a mistake.
This Working Paper will provide an overview of the following:
•
•
Terrorist threats associated with hosting a prominent sports event, while placing
potential threats in context in South Africa.
An overview of preparations for the FIFA World Cup.
The aim of this paper is not to discourage visitors from coming to South Africa, but rather
to place the potential threat of terrorism in context. Understandably, South Africa is not
on the same level of alertness towards terrorism than countries in other parts of the
world, but it is especially this level of comfort, or the common assessment that ‘it will
never happen to us’, that contributes to South Africa’s vulnerability as a potential target.
While crime and the threat of hooligans are more realistic, South Africa also needs to
realise that in being part of the international community places the country in a different
threat category than it is normally used to.
Why Target the FIFA World Cup?
The host country of major sports events must assess the value of the exposure and direct
and secondary benefits it might get from them. In assessing the potential economic and
political benefits of hosting an event of this magnitude it will have to weigh up against
*
Senior Researcher on Terrorism at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Pretoria, South Africa.
2
them the costs required to develop and construct additional infrastructure, building
and/or upgrading sport facilities, as well as focusing on other indirect needs such as
housing and providing security to foreign guests. Equally, terrorists also need to make
similar estimates, but with a very different outcome in mind. In other words, potential
terrorists will assess the value of attacking an event from different perspectives,
depending on their motivation and objectives. It is essential from the onset of this analysis
to emphasise that the event is the primary target and not the host country. In other words,
although the country might have been low on the radar as a target, a different set of rules
applies to events that attract tremendous media interest and foreign visitors. In
conducting this analysis it is advisable to rather overestimate than underestimate the
potential threat from crime or terrorism. Although both are interrelated, particularly if
adopting a holistic approach, the primary focus in this paper will be on the potential
threat of –and vulnerability to– terrorism.
Threat assessments are not limited to threats with an obvious or even indirect connection
to the event or its participants. The representative or symbolic value of the event or venue
also needs to be taken into consideration, since terrorists and other politically‐driven
groups seek recognition for their cause in a theatrical manner and then instil fear by
eroding the public’s confidence in the state for their safety. It therefore came as no
surprise that al‐Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) posted a threat on the
Mushtaqun Lel Jannah (‘Longing for Paradise’) website in early April: ‘How amazing could
the match United States versus Britain be when broadcasted live on air at a stadium
packed with spectators when the sound of an explosion rumbles through the stands, the
whole stadium is turned upside down and the number of dead bodies are in their dozens
and hundreds, Allah willing. Al‐Qaeda, who managed to deliver 50 grams of explosives
to the Detroit plane, 1 after infiltrating dozens of US security barriers, al‐Qaeda, who
enabled brother martyr Abul Kheir (Abdullah Asiri) to get into the palace of Mohammed
bin Nayef, 2 al‐Qaeda, who humiliated the worldʹs greatest intelligence apparatus through
the operation of Mujahid Abu Dujana al‐Khorassani (Humam al‐Balawi), who shattered
the pride of the CIA and the Jordanian intelligence combined 3 . Al‐Qaeda will have a
presence in the games, Allah willing. Not only the US and Britain, but other countries are
on the hit list of the terrorist group, including France, Germany and Italy: All those
countries are part of the Zionist‐Crusader campaign against Islam’. 4 Although the
1 Referring to the Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab who, on a flight from Amsterdam to Detroit on 25
December 2009, attempted to detonate explosives hidden in his underwear.
2 On 27 August 2009 Abdullah Asiri, a Saudi citizen attempted to assassinate Prince Muhammad bin Nayef,
the Deputy Interior Minister for Security Affairs in Saudi Arabia with a pound of explosives hidden on his
body. Similarly to Abdulmutallab, Asiri did not succeeded in his attempt, but rather killed himself and only
slightly injured Prince Nayef.
3 On 30 December 2009 Abu Dujana al‐Khorasani, working for Jordanian intelligence, managed to convince
his handlers that statements he had made on websites about wanting to die as a martyr were part of his cover.
The suicide attack subsequently killed seven CIA personnel and a Jordanian intelligence officer.
4 ‘North African Islamic Terrorist Group Threatens FIFA World Cup’, Digital Journal, 8/IV/2010.
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seriousness of this threat is being contested by South African officials, the reality remains
that any group and individual with an ‘issue’ will be tempted to capitalise on the stage set
by hosting an international event of this magnitude.
This Working Paper will provide a brief vulnerability assessment in an attempt to identify
possible threats, specifically terrorism ones, based on their feasibility and on indicators of
potential exploitation such as: lax immigration and security laws; corruption levels; long
porous borders associated with insufficient border control units or instruments; and
advanced infrastructure without effective security measures. These threats are further
categorised by the potential likelihood that they will be exploited, thereby providing an
informed assessment based on detecting, monitoring and predicting potential threats.
Assessing the Threat and Vulnerability of Terrorism
Analysing the risks, vulnerability and threats confronting South Africa in preparation of
the FIFA World Cup, we consider both domestic and transnational terrorism. Especially
when hosting an international event, no host country can isolate itself from international
developments and the consequences of globalisation and the Internet. Only a limited
number of domestic conflicts remain truly domestic. In one example, although the Tamil
Tigers (LTTE) concentrate most of their attacks in Sri Lanka and India, expatriate
communities sympathetic to the Tamil cause have so far been involved in providing
financial support to the LTTE. Until recently these communities were left ‘in peace’ –
although monitored– to continue with their activities till the Sri Lankan government
began to increase the pressure on host governments to crack down especially on the
financing of terrorism. South Africa, for instance, also hosts Tamil communities in certain
areas of the country, and although these communities limit their activities in South Africa
to legitimate dissent, the possibility of launching attacks at the FIFA World Cup (as with
other international events) cannot be excluded. It will therefore be essential to include in
this analysis immigrant political and ethnic communities within the country that are in
conflict or strife with either their respective governments or with other groups. It should
be borne in mind that although no conflict might have manifested itself in South Africa,
the FIFA World Cup is an international event that will most probably include
representatives from the opposing party in the conflict, not to mention the value of media
coverage that can be used to gain recognition or enhance the conflict’s profile. The fact no
extremist or radical group has never made its views known to the public or expressed
opinions in its host country about existing feuds in its country of origin does not mean
that they do not exist. In other words, the lack of previous activities should not be the
benchmark for assessment.
In a more recent example, in preparation for the 2008 Olympic Games, China listed a
number of security challenges, ranging from pro‐Tibetan groups to the East Turkestan
Islamic Movement (ETIM), a separatist group particularly active in the western Xinjian
4
region. In the build up to the opening of the Games, the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) –
linked to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM)– claimed responsibility for the
following attacks: 5
•
•
•
•
•
5 May: a Shanghai bus bombing that killed three.
17 May: another Shanghai attack along with an attack on the police in Wenzhou in
which an explosives‐laden tractor was used.
17 May: the bombing of a Guangzhou plastic factory.
21 July: the detonation of explosive devices on two public buses in Kunming, the
capital of Yunnan province, that resulted in two people dead and 14 injured.
August 2008: two Islamic militants rammed a truck into a group of Chinese guards
and lobbed grenades, killing at least 16, in the north‐western Xinjiang province.
The threat from domestic terrorist groups with transnational links was placed higher on
the list of potential dangers than one from outside the country. Even considering the links
between the ETIM, the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (IMET) and the Islamic
Movement for Uzbekistan (IMU) with al‐Qaeda, an important lesson can be taken from
this analysis: transnational terrorists will strive to align themselves to domestic actors that
know the territory, instead of using foreign operatives that will definitely attract
unnecessary attention in a controlled society.
Similarly, those conducting an analysis should not limit their assessment of potential
groups posing a threat to the countries involved in the event, since any terrorist group
and/or individuals hoping to draw attention to their cause can target it (irrespective of the
target country participating in the event). During the 2010 African Cup, the Front for the
Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC) targeted the Togo national team and
achieved its objective of drawing attention to its ‘forgotten’ cause, while having nothing
specific against Togo itself. In other words, the ‘event’ was the target and not the host
country. The 1972 Olympic Games attack is another example of exploiting an event to
make a statement, while the host country –Germany– was never the intended target.
Furthermore, it is unknown to what extent certain terrorist attacks influence subsequent
one, as terror groups tend to learn from the example of others. In other words, in South
Africa’s case, the terrorist threat is not limited to the participating countries: Algeria,
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Cameroon, Chile, Denmark, France, Germany, Ghana,
Greece, Honduras, Italy, Ivory Coast, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Mexico, the
Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Paraguay, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South
Africa, Spain, Switzerland, Uruguay, the UK and the US. Attacks might equally be
directed at matches that do not involve a ‘high value target’, such as the US, the UK or
other European countries. Considering that security alertness might be greater at matches
involving ‘high‐value targets’ or at larger venues such as Johannesburg, Cape Town,
Pretoria and Durban, terrorists might rather consider smaller venues such as Rustenburg,
5
‘Chinese Islamists Threaten Olympics: US Group’, Agence France Presse, 7/VIII/2008.
5
Nelspruit and Polokwane (not that security will be absent at these locations).
Nevertheless, the symbolic value of targeting a ‘high‐grade target’ at a high‐level security
venue cannot be underestimated.
Domestic Terrorism
Although active or dormant domestic terror organisations might have previously
exclusively focused their attention on domestic targets, prior experience indicates that
they might capitalise on the international attention that they will most certainly get, in an
attempt to gain recognition for their grievances. It will therefore not be advisable to
assume that since domestic organisations have been reluctant to launch attacks against
international targets in the past they will necessarily refrain from targeting the World
Cup. As mentioned earlier, the bigger the attraction, particularly in terms of media
attention, the greater the possibility that even small groups might see the potential in
placing a particular issue and/or grievance on the proverbial front page.
For example, on 27 July 1996, Eric Robert Rudolph detonated an explosive device at the
Centennial Park where the 1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta were held. The attack was
followed by bombings directed at abortion clinics in Sandy Springs and Birmingham and
at the Otherside Lounge, a gay/lesbian bar before. Categorised as a right‐wing extremist
who lived near the Georgia border in North Carolina, Rudolph’s primary motivation was
to fight against abortion and homosexuality. In targeting the Olympic Games, Rudolph’s
goal was to force the cancellation of the Games or, at the very least, create such a state of
insecurity that the streets around the venues would empty of people. According to
Rudolph himself: ‘The purpose of the attack was to confound, anger and embarrass the
Washington government in the eyes of the world for its abominable sanctioning of
abortion on demand’. His original plan was to knock out the power grid surrounding
Atlanta and, in effect, pull the plug on the Games. When he was unable to acquire the
high explosives necessary to achieve this objective, he resorted to his backup plan and
built five low‐tech timed devices, propelled by smokeless gunpowder and full of masonry
nails. It is important to note that he primarily targeted law enforcement personnel
through the use of secondary devices and the warning given through a 911 call in the case
of the Olympic bombing. According to Rudolph: ‘The location and time of detonation was
to be given, and the intent was to thereby clear each of the areas, leaving only uniformed
arms‐carrying government personnel exposed to potential injury… I knew the weapons
used [highly uncontrollable timed explosives] and the choice of tactics [placing them in
areas frequented by large numbers of civilians] could potentially lead to a disaster’. On
the day of the attack, Rudolph placed a backpack containing the bomb on the ground
under a bench. He set the timer and walked towards a nearby phone booth. He dialled
911 and claimed ‘there’s a bomb in Centennial Park’, when the 911 operator hung up on
him. Due to bystanders that heard his second call he did not mention the exact location of
the device (underneath a bench near the base of a concert sound tower). Despite this
second call, information on the bomb threat never reached the park. A security guard,
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however, spotted the bag and informed his supervisor, who summoned two bomb
experts. Notwithstanding attempts to clear the area, the device detonated, killing one
person (with a second person dying as a result of a heart attack) and injuring a further
111. 6
An important lesson from the Atlanta Olympic bombing is that Eric Robert Rudolph had
not committed an earlier act of terrorism that could have drawn attention to his
intentions. The threat also came in the form of a lone attacker, commonly referred to as a
‘lone wolf’, who was operating independently from any identifiable organisation,
although the motivation might be similar to that of an identifiable movement –a threat
associated with the decentralised nature of terrorism–.
Although now dormant, South Africa has been confronted by periodic incidents of right‐
wing extremism with threats from a vigilante group known as People against
Gangsterism and Drugs (PAGAD) subsequently leading to a campaign of urban terrorism
in Cape Town until 2000.
As regards right‐wing extremism, the Boeremag (‘Boer Force’) was the last group to have
raised concern. Instead of being one identifiable movement associated with specific
activities, both legal and illegal, manifestations of right‐wing extremism sporadically
come and go and also often involve a core group that plans and executes activities in a
clandestine fashion, making it extremely difficult to provide an assessment of structures,
reach and operations. Although active before 1994, the white right has since that date
been fighting for ethnic survival. While only a few still strive for white supremacy, the
majority realise that in essence the fight today is to protect the Afrikaners’ cultural
identity. A number of smaller groups that act within the boundaries of the law believe
that achieving an ethnic Afrikaner state or autonomous region is the only solution.
Smaller cells under names such as Boere Aanvals Troepe, as well as the Boeremag, were
implicated in a few attacks and broader plots to overthrow the existing government.
Although right‐wing extremism is particularly associated with rural areas, involving
former members of South Africa’s security apparatus, the trend is changing and now even
professionals that formerly kept away from right‐wing politics have become attracted. As
in the period before 1994, right‐wing groups predominately use commercial explosives
but also target military facilities to gain access to military equipment. The use of explosive
devices is directed at broader infrastructures, including bridges, railway lines and dams.
Sabotage such as this was a common practice during the Anglo‐Boer Wars and was at that
time of strategic importance in cutting supply lines. However, in a modern setting, attacks
on infrastructure can only be described as short‐sighted, an indication more of frustration
than of any real strategic intention. Targeting taxi ranks, sports events and places of
public interest or causing mass casualties associated with targeted assassinations were, of
S. Freeman (2006), ‘The Untold Story of Abortion‐clinic Bomber Eric Robert Rudolph?, Orlando Weekly,
24/VIII/2006, http://www.orlandoweekly.com/util/printready.asp?id=10931, accessed 24/VII/2008.
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course, more serious. According to information revealed during the Boeremag trial, its
tactics included the use of explosives and assassinations. Most notably a plot was
uncovered in December 2002 in which Boeremag member Herman van Rooyen rigged a
car bomb with 384 kg of explosives, together with two bags of nuts and bolts for shrapnel.
The car bomb was apparently meant for a game between Kaizer Chiefs and Sundowns at
Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria. 7 In addition to earlier plans to target soccer games in
particular (as they are associated with the black community in South Africa), the Boeremag
also established relationships with right‐wing groups in the US and Europe, especially
Germany, that raised some concern. Whether the Boeremag or other right‐wing groups
will target the FIFA World Cup, possibly resulting in transnational casualties, is
uncertain, although it will most likely take the opportunity to direct international
attention towards concerns such as affirmative action, land reform and cultural
marginalisation.
People Against Gangsterism and Drugs (PAGAD) and associated organisations have
served mainly as a broad anti‐crime front. PAGAD’s initial attacks were directed against
drug dealers and known gangsters. The growing prominence of cell structures as part of
the G‐Force (Gun‐Force) as well as an extreme Islamist agenda changed PAGAD from a
vigilante/pressure group to a domestic terror group that included in its target selection
state structures and representatives, including police stations, outspoken community
members and restaurants, particularly those associated with the US or with
homosexuality. Under the umbrella of PAGAD, similar structures were formed, each with
a different reason for their existence, namely: Muslims Against Global Oppression
(MAGO), Muslims Against Illegitimate Leaders (MAIL) and People Against Prostitutes
and Sodomites (PAPAS). Each of these structures presented a different aspect of life in the
Western Cape that could be used to recruit new members. For example, a small PAGAD
ally, Qibla, took part in a march on 7 January 2000 to the Russian Embassy in Cape Town
in protest against the killing of Muslims in Chechnya, and its leader Achmat Cassiem
handed over a memorandum demanding that Russia end the ‘bloodshed’ in Grozny. 8 In
reaction to the US strikes against Sudan and Afghanistan in retaliation for the bombings
in Kenya and Tanzania on 6 August 1998, PAGAD allegedly began to target businesses
linked to the US, the best example being the explosion that targeted Planet Hollywood on
25 August 1998. The influence of international politics was confirmed with the bombing
of a Jewish Synagogue in Wynberg on 18 December 1998 in reaction to US and British
bombing raids over Iraq. During this period numerous protests were held under the
banner of MAGO. Earlier in 1999 MAGO’s spokesman, Moain Achmad, accused the
South African government of being part of a US‐led ‘hidden agenda’: ‘Because it [a multi‐
religious conference and alleged funding for Parliament] comes from the United States,
which is controlling the whole world, we know there is a hidden agenda’. 9 In addition to
‘Boeremag Planned to Detonate 384kg Bomb’, Independent Online, 15/XII/2002.
A. Smith (2000), ‘Cape Muslims March on Embassies’, Cape Argus, 7/I/2000, http://www.newsview.php.
9 Vaill J 1999. Protest at CT meeting of world religions, SAPA, 1 December.
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the traditional use of pipe bombs, the later campaign included car bombs, a motorcycle
bomb, the use of mobile phones to detonate explosive devices and the use of ammonium
nitrate instead of gunpowder. Although the primary culprits were arrested and
prosecuted (a few have already been released, most notably Abdussalaam Ebrahim) and
the fact that PAGAD’s violent activities came to a standstill, this does not imply that its
underlying reasons and structure have come to an end since 2000. Western countries,
including the US and its allies in Iraq and Afghanistan, will be participating in the FIFA
World Cup, providing an opportunity to South African nationals or those who could
benefit from a strong anti‐Western sentiment and other elements that led to South Africa
being categorized as a haven for transnational terrorism to direct their attacks against
representatives of the West.
South Africa is currently confronted by other challenges to which brief reference should
be made. For someone not following the news on a daily basis, South Africa could be
described as a stable country and a ‘success story’ after the peaceful transition from
Apartheid in 1994. It is only when scratching beneath the surface that an outsider can
begin to realise that there is much anger and frustration in the country. Afrikaner fears are
again in the spotlight following the statements by Julius Malema, leader of the ANC
Youth League, over the last few months and, more particularly, his revival of the anti‐
Apartheid struggle song ‘Kill the Boer, Kill the Farmer’. It might seem insignificant, but
‘Boer’ refers to white Afrikaner and with over 3,000 white farmers having been killed in
attacks since 1994, the murder of Eugene Terre’Blanche, leader of the Afrikaner Resistance
Movement (AWB), on 3 April brought the issue to the fore again. Although the AWB is
disregarded by many as insignificant and unable to attract broad Afrikaner support, the
impact of Terre’Blanche’s murder caused a deep resonance. After being hacked to death
on his farm, his death has sparked tension between many white Afrikaners (often having
no connexion with the AWB) and black South Africans, more specifically the ANC Youth
League, COSATU and the Pan‐African Congress (PAC). Tension between black and white
had never been so high since before the 1994 elections. The World Cup will thus provide a
good opportunity for both sides to capitalise on it, through demonstrations, for instance.
Attacks specifically directed against foreigners during the World Cup are, however,
unlikely.
Although related to domestic politics, it is to be expected that people might use the
platform created by the World Cup to protest against issues such as service delivery,
crime and racial tension. Affecting all South Africans is the question of service delivery
that recently led to violent protest action against the current government. Frustrated by
the current government’s inability to honour its election pledges and by rising electricity
prices, members of –especially– the black community turned to violence and barricaded
roads and attacked buildings and vehicles. Further fuelling the current situation is the
perception that employers, such as mining companies, prefer to employ foreigners rather
than locals –an urgent danger signal that there will be a return to xenophobic attacks–.
9
Also, the introduction of the bus‐rapid transit (BRT) system resulted in the taxi industry
expressing anger against the government and warned that there might be a reaction,
leaving the service users stuck in the middle. The Minister of Sport, Makhenkesi Stofile,
only had this to say: ‘No right‐thinking South African would even try to disrupt the
World Cup. They love this country’. 10
Transnational Terrorism
Globalisation, particularly developments in communications (with specific reference to
the Internet), the mass media and global travel (including migration and immigration
trends) have facilitated the ‘transnationalisation’ of domestic terrorism. Issues that
previously had an exclusively domestic character and focus, today expand well beyond
national borders. Terrorists have begun to realise that they can also expand their
operations (particularly financing, planning, recruitment and training) to areas that do
not attract the attention of security and intelligence agencies, ie, to terrorist havens.
Although South Africa has been fortunate in not having been targeted in an act of
transnational terrorism, other countries on the continent (most notably Algeria, Morocco,
Somalia and Nigeria) have not been so lucky. In most incidents terrorists have used
conventional weapons, such as bombs and small arms, although an alarming trend is the
use of coordinated attacks, including secondary strikes targeting first responders.
Improvised explosive devices (IED) are still considered the most effective method.
Although bombings traditionally attract more attention, the use of firearms should not be
disregarded. One only needs to recall the impact of the Mumbai and Lahore attacks in
November 2008 and February 2009, respectively, to appreciate the devastating impact of
the use of automatic and semi‐automatic fire in a coordinated attack. In Africa the easy
accessibility of firearms as a result of still unresolved domestic conflicts definitely
heightens the concern. The most important lesson is that terrorists always opt for the most
cost‐effective and easily available weapons to execute their attacks.
The Threat from Transnational Terrorism in South Africa
Traditionally, when assessing the threat of transnational terrorism to a particular country
a distinction is made between countries categorised as targets or as havens:
Factors such as the following will influence the decision to target a country:
•
The availability and protection of selected targets.
•
Access to weaponry and/or explosives.
10
C. Barnes (2010), ‘Taxis Assured of Part in World Cup Plan’, Cape Argus, 22/III/2010.
10
•
•
•
•
•
The safety to operate without being detected (with or without ‘support’ structures),
including the ease with which a country is entered and exited without drawing
attention, or if detected, without being importuned. To ensure security a sub‐regional
approach should be called for and the following factors considered:
(a) Uncontrolled areas.
(b) Protection and monitoring of formal and informal points of entry.
(c) Corruption and the capacity of the security forces. In the former case, the ability of
non‐South African nationals to obtain South African identity documents and
passports has led to growing concern within the international community. In
contrast to cases of forgery in countries around the world, criminals and potential
terrorists can gain access to blank official passports or even manage to get
passports issued under fraudulent names. Cases of vulnerability in Home Affairs
have led to a number of investigations.
The ability to blend into the local community through:
(a) Marriage with a local national. A worrying development in South Africa –due to
the corruption in the Home Affairs department– is the existence of marriages
being carried out without the knowledge of the South African citizen concerned.
(b) Business: potential terrorists might become involved in providing assistance to
poor communities and thereby indirectly ‘buy’ goodwill and loyalty.
(c) Finding pockets of support, particularly amongst immigrant communities (legal or
illegal).
The levels of knowledge and sense of duty and citizenship of ordinary citizens in
reporting crime and suspicious activities to the police.
The sense of kinship that minorities have towards individuals with whom they share
a common culture, religion or history. This definitely contributes to the vulnerability
and exploitation of foreign residents when recruiting and/or securing assistance in the
execution of the attack.
The levels of actual and potential support can be divided into three broad categories:
(a) Support for the ideals of a terrorist organisation. This is often protected under the
basic rights of freedom of speech and association (although it is criminalised in a
few countries under the prevention of the incitement to terrorism). It is usually
manifested in open or covert sympathy for the ideals of a person or group
associated with terrorism or through the participation in protest actions. It cannot
be considered the same as belonging to a terrorist organization, but it does serve
as an indicator of sympathy.
(b) Financial assistance, that might be given knowingly or unknowingly. For instance,
on 26 January 2007, under Executive Order 13224, the US listed Moulana Farhad
Ahmed Dockrat, a Muslim cleric from Pretoria, and his cousin, Dr Junaid Ismail
11
Dockrat, a dentist from Mayfair, and although no legal action was brought against
either of them, the case raised substantial media attention. However, this was not
the first listing in which South Africa was implicated: on 29 May 2003, the Al‐Aqsa
ASBL (better known as the Al‐Aqsa Foundation) was listed by the US Federal
Register as a financier of terrorism, based on its alleged association with Hamas.11
With an office in Johannesburg, this international organisation also has offices in
the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, Sweden, Pakistan and Yemen. According to
the US State Department, Moulana Farhad Dockrat allegedly gave around
R400,000 in 2001 to the Taliban ambassador to Pakistan, to be forwarded to the Al‐
Akhtar Trust headquarters in Pakistan, which had been identified as a fundraiser
for al‐Qaeda in Afghanistan. The Al‐Akhtar Trust had been identified by the US as
a Special Designated Global Terrorist in terms of Executive Order 13224 as early as
14 October 2003. According to news reports, Dr Dockrat was identified as an al‐
Qaeda ‘financier, recruiter and facilitator’. Dr Dockrat allegedly recruited South
Africans and coordinated their journeys to Pakistan to train with al‐Qaeda, during
which time he was in contact with Hamza Rabi’a. The latter was an Egyptian
national described as a high‐level al‐Qaeda operations chief who was killed in
Pakistan on 1 December 2005. 12 The US also accused Dr Dockrat of raising
R120,000 that Rabi’a received in March or April 2004. 13 With reference to the
allegation that Dr Dockrat recruited and facilitated the transfer of South African
nationals to receive training in Pakistan, his name came up in another case: Dr
Firoz Ganchi and Zubair Ismail (who had been tutored by Moulana Farhad
Ahmed Dockrat) were arrested after a long shoot‐out with Pakistani forces along
with Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, (an alleged al‐Qaeda member) and another 11
suspects (including a Sudanese national and an Uzbek woman –possibly
Ghailani’s wife–) in a safe‐house in Gujrat, Pakistan, on 25 July 2004. Gujrat is
situated close to the border with Kashmir. Ghailani, a Tanzanian national in US
custody, was allegedly involved in the 1998 Nairobi and Dar es‐Salaam Embassy
bombings. Speculation after the announcement that the two South African
nationals had been arrested in the company of a known al‐Qaeda operative and
the allegation that plans were uncovered to attack places of interest in South
Africa caused outrage in the South African Muslim community. Although the
South African mission only got access to Dr Firoz Ganchi and Zubair Ismail on 4
October, the South African government maintained that the two were innocent. 14
The two South Africans, however, explained that they had been hiking in
Pakistan, an explanation not generally accepted by analysts considering the
11 US Department of the Treasury, ‘Treasury Designates Al‐Aqsa International Foundation as Financier of
Terror Charity Linked to Funding of the Hamas Terrorist Organization’, 29/V/2003,
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js439.htm.
12 Global Security, Abu Hamza Rabi’a, http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/profiles/abu_hamza_rabia.htm
13 U.S Department of the Treasury. “Treasury Targets Al Qaida Facilitators in South Africa” 26 January 2007.
Available at: http://ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp230.htm
14 SAPA (South African Press Association) 2004. Consular access to SA men in Pakistan, 6 October.
12
conditions in Pakistan and the company they kept (Ghailani). 15 The Pakistani
Foreign Secretary Riaz Khokhar, when confronted with the explanation that Dr
Firoz Ganchi and Zubair Ismail were tourists, explained: ‘Please try to understand
that these two gentlemen were picked up from a small town where tourists
normally don’t go. There is hardly anything of touristic interest. And they were...
in the company of a man who has been sought after by virtually the entire West...
so clearly they were not keeping very good company’. While acknowledging the
fact that being arrested in the company of Ghailani does not necessarily constitute
a crime, he continued: ‘… you don’t end up in a place like Gujrat in a safe house...
with one of the most wanted terrorists in the world’. 16 According to a memo that
accompanied Dr Firoz Ganchi and Zubair Ismail when they were deported back to
South Africa, the two suspects (after being held by the Pakistani authorities for
five months) were allegedly on an al‐Qaeda training mission to Pakistan. 17
(c) Presumed innocent until proved guilty is an important element in South Africa’s
legal tradition, yet at face value the perception was created that South Africa is
politically reluctant to acknowledge or act on the suspicion that South African
nationals might be involved in or indirectly support suspicious activities. While
supporting and protecting citizens against wrongful persecution, a perception was
created that South Africa is a haven for terrorists. Although South Africa might on
a political level argue that it does not support the US‐led war on terrorism and
that it honours principles associated with a liberal democracy, being considered
‘soft’ on counter‐terrorism could give rise to challenges similar to those Europe
was confronted with before and after 9/11. While being warned by Middle Eastern
and North African countries that had experienced extremism and terrorism in the
1990s, European countries labelled North African nations such as Algeria, Tunisia
and Egypt as undemocratic. Regardless of their gross human rights violations and
their lack of political reform, by giving political asylum to ‘terrorists’ European
countries became more vulnerable to extremism and terrorism. Essentially,
terrorists exploit the various advantages presented by different political systems
and countries throughout the world. Terrorists are driven by interest, not loyalty.
•
Direct involvement is knowingly associating through direct participation in the
execution of a terrorist act.
As regards countries used as safe havens, individuals or groups might decide not to carry
out terrorist acts in a particular country, based on the realisation that an attack might
draw ‘unwanted’ interest from its government and security forces in the activities of a
group and its support networks. Although the status quo might be maintained for a
while, sleeper and support cells can easily be activated.
BBC Monitoring Africa, Two South Africans named international terror suspects, 21 January 2007.
All Africa, 2004. SA Men in Gujrat ‘No Tourists’, 20 August.
17 Mahlangu, D Piliso, S and Lubisi D 2004. South Africans were on al‐Qaeda mission. All Africa. 20 December.
15
16
13
In addition to cases such as these of foreign nationals trying to establish cells or small
networks, there is also the possibility of South African national being committed to a
transnational cause and using the opportunity to target an international event.
From Haven to Potential Target
The announcement that South Africa would host the 2010 FIFA World Cup was made on
14 May 2004. As usual, notice was given well in advance to allow the host country to
prepare the stadiums and infrastructure in time to host the event. However, at the same
time terrorists are given an equal opportunity to plan and ‘build’ the necessary
infrastructure (if it does not already exist in the host country) to execute an attack.
Previous major acts of transnational terrorism took years to get in place, without raising
the suspicions of intelligence agencies and security forces. For example, al‐Qaeda had
operated in Nairobi since at least 1993 and in Mombasa since 1994 while preparing for the
1998 US Embassy bombings in East Africa. Planning before the attack included: 18
•
•
•
The establishment of safe‐houses for its members and others in transit.
The opening of small businesses and relief organisations to subsidise and act as a
cover. For example, in 1993, Khalid al‐Fawwaz, who would later become a spokesman
for Osama bin Laden in the UK, started a business in Nairobi called Asma Limited
that was later transferred to Abu Ubaidah al‐Banshiri, a military commander. Wadih
El‐Hage established another business there, Tanzanite King, and a relief organisation,
Help Africa People. In August 1994, Mohammed Saddiq Odeh, a Jordanian member
of al‐Qaeda who had been trained in the camps in Afghanistan, arrived in Mombasa.
During the same year Muhammad Atef, who would later be killed in Afghanistan,
visited Odeh in Mombasa and gave him a fibreglass boat to start a wholesale fishing
business for al‐Qaeda. Under the arrangement, Odeh could take whatever money he
needed to cover his expenses while giving the rest to al‐Qaeda.
Provide training.
Although the target of the 1998 and Paradise Hotel bombings has nothing to do with
hosting a major sports event, a number of important lessons can be drawn from these
attacks:
•
The cell was able to settle in the country and evade capture. Al‐Qaeda operatives
spent six years in East Africa before the attack, so they knew the area and could
operate easily.
M. Lacey & B. Weiser (2002), ‘After Attack, Kenya Traces Qaeda’s Trail in East Africa’, The New York Times,
1/XII/2002.
18
14
•
The men lived among Kenya’s Muslim population, married into the local community,
set up businesses to act as covers and used locals to help with their new lives. For
example, Oded told the FBI that al‐Qaeda had friends to assist in business ventures
and surveillance.
In planning and executing an attack, terrorists spend a lot of time selecting the target,
analysing and assessing opportunities and vulnerabilities, as well as conducting their
own research to secure the attack’s successful execution. Considering the time frame and
activities associated with hosting the event, the threat to the World Cup starts with the
building and renovation of sport facilities. On a strategic level, being able to gain access to
plans of stadiums and actual access to facilities during the event takes time and careful
planning, but contributes to the successful execution of an attack.
Although there are a number of differences between Kenya (and Tanzania) and South
Africa in light of the preparations for the FIFA World Cup it should be noted that South
Africa was previously mentioned or implicated in a number of attacks and plots, as
revealed by the arrest of:
•
•
•
•
•
19
Khalfan Khamis Mohamed, a Tanzanian national who fled to Cape Town in the
aftermath of the 1998 bombings in Kenya and Tanzania.
Saud Memon, a Pakistani who, according to media reports, was allegedly ‘picked
up’ by US officials in South Africa on 7 March 2003.
Three suspected al‐Qaeda operatives of Syrian and Jordanian origin in April 2004,
as announced by the National Police Commissioner after they had been in South
Africa for almost a year. 19
Haroon Rashid Aswat, implicated in the 7/7 attacks in London and in setting up an
Oregon training camp in 1999. He was arrested in Zambia on 20 July 2005 but
prior to his arrest had lived in Johannesburg for five months.
Rangzieb Ahmed, an al‐Qaeda director of operations, and Habib Ahmed
(unrelated to the former), convicted in December 2008 in the UK on terrorism‐
related offences. During court proceedings it became known that they had
planned to travel to Dubai from Pakistan via China and South Africa as part of a
major terrorist plot. While in Dubai, they heard about the death of Hamza Rabia
(already referred to) and decided to return to the UK on separate flights.
According to Rangzieb Ahmed’s testimony, he and Habib Ahmed were in contact
with Mohammed Zillur Rahman who continued on to South Africa. Rahman
allegedly made contact with an individual only known as ‘Imran’ and planned to
BBC Newsfile, ‘South African Police Say Key Landmarks Targeted by Al‐Qa’idah’, 4/VIII/2004.
15
get hold of South African passports and ID to get them (and potentially others)
into the US. 20
•
Mohammed Gulzar, who was one of eight suspects on trial in connection with a
plot to blow up planes on flights between the UK, the US and Canada using liquid
explosives in 2006. He entered Britain on a flight from South Africa via Mauritius
under the name Altaf Ravat on 18 July 2006 after having lived in South Africa for a
few years. According to his marriage certificate, Gulzar married Zorra Siddique on
30 June 2006 in Nigel, South Africa. His forged passport also showed a one‐day
trip to Swaziland on 13 July 2006. 21 Although Gulzar was identified as an alleged
facilitator, he was acquitted of charges of conspiracy to commit murder in
September 2008 despite evidence linking him to Rashid Rauf (who fled to
Pakistan), Abdullah Ahmed Ali and Assad Ali Sarwar, who were all convicted. 22
With reference to the integrity of South African passports, it is important to note
that Rashid Rauf was arrested with a forged South African passport by the
Pakistani authorities in August 2006. 23
This possibility has raised further concern that sleeper cells are in existence in South
Africa. The idea of a sleeper cell is that a person or small group of people are sent to or
recruited in a particular country with the intention of being activated at a later stage in
time to commit a terrorist act. The success of these operations is determined by the ability
of the cell’s members to lead ‘normal’ lives without attracting any attention from
intelligence or security personnel and to continue planning an attack maintaining their
cover until the attack is executed.
At the same time, central role players can move into the target country to execute the
attack over a relatively short period of time before the event is hosted. In this scenario, the
terrorist network needs an existing cell that knows the target country. This might also
involve local support, given knowingly or unwittingly.
Types of Threats and Potential Modus Operandi
The examples mentioned above provide a brief overview of the potential perpetrators:
transnational terrorist organisations, small cell structures (including sleeper cells) and
20 ‘Testimony of Rangzieb Ahmed’. Cageprisoners,
http://www.cageprisoners.com/downloads/RangziebAhmed.pdf, accessed 23/III/2010.
21 I. MacLeod (2008), ‘Al‐Qaeda’s Central Leadership Active, Experts Say’, The Ottawa Citizen, 30/IV/2008,
http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=0ea1ffd3‐cbae‐4451‐957a‐72814eab333e&p=2,
accessed 23/VI/2008.
22 S. O’Neill (2008), ‘British Terror Cell Plotted to Bring Death to Hundreds with Home‐made Liquid
Explosives, The Times, 9/IX/2008.
23 R. Jawad (2007), ‘Disappeared Pakistani Terror Suspect Held Over London Bombings’, Agence France Presse,
18/IV/2007.
16
individuals motivated by certain principles or a certain ideology and acting as part of a
decentralised network. While not all types of threats and scenarios can be addressed here,
a few basic elements should be highlighted:
•
•
•
The type of attack and weapon used will be determined by the objective and the
availability of material. In other words, instead of using a chemical or biological agent
(although this cannot be excluded), terrorists will opt for the most accessible and cost‐
effective modus operandi.
Successful terrorists need to have the ability to change or adapt their tactics as
required. In countering a potential act of terrorism, the security forces often prepare
for the outrageous (which is necessary because terrorists also need to rely on the
unexpected for success), while a lesser device or even a simple threat can cause
massive damage (eg, causing panic that leads to a crowd stampeding).
Attacks can come in the form of discriminate or focused attacks on athletes or high‐
ranking government officials –including heads of state– or as indiscriminate attacks
intended to cause mass casualties and damage.
Bomb Threats and Bombings
Causing panic with a bomb threat might not sound like a ‘real’ act of terrorism, but the
consequences can be disastrous. Preparing for 2010, sufficient planning and counter
measures need to be in place to deal with bomb threats, particularly in ensuring that
evacuation procedures are in place, in order to minimise panic. Based on their
sophistication and objectives, bombing incidents can be categorised as:
•
•
•
Threats intended to disrupt or distract attention.
Suspicious packages or devices to attract attention or cause disruption. There is a
difference between an actual device being discovered and a false alarm, although
the impact and consequences are the same.
An actual explosion that might aim to cause mass casualties or a small device
intended to cause panic.
To counter the threat from hoaxes, they have been made punishable under South Africa’s
counter‐terrorism legislation –better known as the Protection of Constitutional
Democracy against Terrorism and Related Activities Act–.
The use of explosives is the most common terrorist tactic because:
•
It attracts media attention, particularly if the target is visible and symbolic.
17
•
•
•
•
•
Explosives are cost effective and more than sufficient to achieve the intended
objective.
Gaining access to explosives and planning and executing an attack does not require
the involvement of a large network or cell as in the case of kidnapping or hijacking.
There is a minimal risk of the bombers being detected and apprehended before the
attack, especially if the device is detonated remotely.
Building a device is inexpensive compared with other methods that require a basic
knowledge of chemistry, while bomb recipes can be downloaded from the Internet.
Explosive materials are easily available and include chemicals, fertilisers and
commercial explosives.
Available for predominately commercial and military applications, terrorists commonly
use:
•
•
•
Powder. Virtually any type of explosive can be improvised in powder form and black
powder is commonly used in pipe bombs.
Improvised plastic explosives. Although knowledge is required, a mixture of ground
potassium chloride and petroleum jelly can be detonated with a blasting cap.
Liquids. Improvised liquid explosives are commonly available, and include Peroxide‐
based explosives such as triacetone triperoxide (TATP, or acetone peroxide), diacetone
diperoxide (DADP) and hexamethylene triperoxide diamine (HMTD). TATP was used
in the 7/7 London bombings and, unlike nitrogen, is difficult to detect by sniffer dogs
and conventional hi‐tech methods, as shown by the case of Richard Reid, the ‘shoe
bomber’. These ingredients are readily available and commonly found in paint
thinners and only require the addition of an acid catalyst, such as sulphuric or
hydrochloric acid. HMTD is less sensitive than TATP, but still dangerous, while it is
more sensitive to impact than TCPT. Although referred to as a liquid, TATP in
powder or crystal form is more concentrated, but also more volatile. 24 The South
African authorities can learn from other countries on the need to inform the public,
especially storeowners, as to what items should raise suspicion if sold in large
quantities. It is unfortunate that not only terrorists experiment with dangerous
combinations, but also teenagers and the curious, often with disastrous consequences.
R. Schulte‐Ladbeck, P. Kolla & U. Karst (2003), ‘Trace Analysis of Peroxide‐Based Explosives’, Analytical
Chemistry, vol. 75, nr 4, 15/II/2003, p. 731‐732.
24
18
Although terrorists more commonly use improvised explosives, the ability to get hold of
military or commercial explosives increases the threat. South Africa has witnessed an
alarming increase in ATM bombings in which commercial explosives have been used. To
place this threat in context, ATM bombings have increased by 3,000% from 2006 to 2008.
Using explosives stolen from mines, an estimated 292 ATMs have been blown up across
the country between 1 January 2008 and 12 July 2008. 25 Despite a notable decrease in the
number of incidents in 2009 as a result of the counter measures adopted at mines and
police operations, it is still important to factor this trend into the analysis, as there is the
possibility of an individual or small group buying commercial explosives from criminals
on the black market and using them in a terrorist action. Driven by financial gain,
criminals with access to commercial explosives might have no moral objections in selling
explosives to those willing to pay. The Madrid train bombings are an example of the link
between terrorism and crime. The terrorists had little trouble buying Goma 2 ECO (a
nitroglycol‐based explosive –similar to nitroglycerin– manufactured in Spain but also
exported) from José Emilio Suárez Trashorras, a miner. Trashorras, a police informant and
drug trafficker, had no ideological ties with the bombers. 26 One of his drug distributors
and associates was Rafa Zouhier, a Moroccan national who put him in touch with Jamal
Ahmidan who wanted to buy a large quantity of dynamite. In February 2004 Trashorras
sold 110 kg of commercial explosives to the bombers, who later used them in the attack. 27
An unexploded device provided an insight into the explosives used. After investigations
it was revealed that the device contained 10 to 12 kg of Goma 2 ECO explosive connected
to a detonator by a 136m cable. 28 In the aftermath, the Spanish authorities attempted to
tighten regulations controlling the storage and sale of explosives. However, the difficulty
in maintaining strict control over commercial explosives was made evident in March 2005
when police in Portugal arrested 11 people who had sold more than 750 kg of Goma 2
ECO on the black market. 29
To detonate an IED, terrorists can use:
•
Electronic or mechanical timers, either fused or triggered with chemicals, including
wristwatches, alarm clocks and kitchen timers.
25 ‘ATM bombings up 3000%’, News24, 12/VII/2008,
http://www.news24.com/News24/South_Africa/News/0,,2‐7‐1442_2356341,00.html, accessed 13/VII/2008.
26 ‘Madrid Bombings: Defendants’, BBC News, 17/VII/2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4899544.stm,
accessed 19/VII/2008.
27 ‘Jose Emilio Suarez Trashorras’, Global Jihad, 14/III/2007, http://www.globaljihad.net/view_page.asp?id=81,
accessed 19/VII/2008.
28 A. Goodman (2004), ‘Security High for Spanish Trains’, CNN, 3/IV/2004,
http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/04/02/spain.bombings/, accessed 24/VII/2008.
29 I. Cobain and R. Cowan (2005), ‘Clues from Million‐piece Jigsaw Point to Experienced Terrorists’, The
Guardian, 11/VII/2005, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2005/jul/11/july7.uksecurity3, accessed on 24/VII/2008.
19
•
•
Action switches, including devices for booby‐traps to detonate when lifted, opened,
etc, but also buttons to be pushed by a suicide bomber.
Electrical or radio signals, eg, an electric door‐opener or transmitters and receivers
used in remote‐controlled toys and mobile phones.
The following broad categories of bombers can be identified based on their specific role
and the organisational structure they belong to:
•
•
Amateurs, including individuals motivated by a vast number of reasons. In addition
to Eric Robert Rudolph (discussed above), another example of a loner is Joel Henry
Hinrichs III, a 21‐year old mechanical engineering student from the University of
Oklahoma in Norman, who detonated an explosive device (that he carried) close to
the Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on 1 October 2005. At the time of the explosion
around 84,000 spectators were watching a football match between the Oklahoma
Sooners and the Kansas State Wildcats. 30 Onlookers stated that he had attempted to
gain access to the stadium but was prevented from entering because he refused to
allow his backpack to be searched. This suggests two important consideration:
(a) Security personnel successfully prevented him from entering the stadium.
(b) However, a person carrying an explosive device can enormous damage, even
outside a stadium while waiting with other spectators to enter. In other words, it
is not necessary to be inside to be a serious security threat.
‘Professional’ terrorists, who are often organised in small cells and are motivated by a
political, ideological or religious philosophy or objective.
Placement and delivery systems can include:
•
•
The use of vehicles, as they can carry a greater weight of explosives. The use of public
transport (eg, taxis), delivery or emergency vehicles for exterior bombings can be
influenced by:
(a) The level of access and type of device.
(b) The wish to cause visible structural damage.
Explosives carried by the bomber himself. Although the weight of explosive is more
limited, it is possible to gain entry to the inside of a building. The bomber can enter a
venue or alternatively introduce a device with inside assistance or hide it at the venue
and collect it at a later stage. An example of the potential threat of time‐delayed
devices –although unrelated to a sports event–, in Fremont (USA) Rodney Joel Blach
planted two pipe bombs with a timer in September 1997 in a renovated house in Corte
‘Crime Scene Overview of the Suicide Bombing in Norman, Oklahoma, 7:30pm, Saturday, October 1, 2005’,
http://zombietime.com/oklahoma_suicide_bombing/, accessed 5/X/2008.
30
20
del Sol. Although the intended target was not in the house, the device detonated six
months after it was planted, causing massive damage. 31
Thus, it is necessary for security preparations to begin well before the start of the event. In
addition to ensuring that no explosive devices are brought into the venue on the day of
the event, further measures must be taken to prevent potential perpetrators from gaining
access and:
•
•
Planting a device before the event, using existing items as a disguise (eg, a vending
machine).
Impersonating an employee or, in the case of the World Cup, a steward appointed by
FIFA to ensure security inside the stadiums or other personnel such as maintenance
operatives, etc. Although security checks can be a deterrent, it should be borne in
mind that those involved might not have criminal records or cause any suspicion
before the event. Although in‐depth security checks are absolutely necessary, they are
not 100% effective.
Of course, an extensive security sweep will be conducted before the event, but the
resourcefulness of terrorists in the past and the extent of freely‐available information on
the Internet on the construction of ‘non‐traceable’ or difficult‐to‐trace explosives
essentially means that if terrorists want to target a particular event, they will find a way to
do so, particularly when time is on their side. The only effective counter‐strategy is
intelligence and, as previously shown, a great deal of ‘luck’ on the part of the security
forces. Intelligence agency officials will confirm that although specific information can
prevent an attack, those gathering and analysing information are confronted with a
number of challenges:
•
•
•
Information seldom provides the following specific information: when and where the
attack will take place; who will be responsible; how the attack will be carried out and
with what means; and the reason or motivation behind the attack. Information often
comes in fragments that often only make sense in retrospect, after the attack.
The information overload often makes it difficult to differentiate between essential
and ancillary data.
Information is gathered by different individuals within the same organisation
working from different offices as well as by different security structures. All
organisations face a common challenge: how to share meaningful information within
an organisation, as well as between organisations while avoiding the negative impact
H.K. Lee (2001), ‘Fremont Bomber Convicted: Ex‐technician for Cops Targeted Homes of Top Police
Officers’, The San Francisco Chronicle, 1/VI/2001.
31
21
of human nature. Trust and professional jealousy are probably some of the most
challenging aspects that intelligence agencies have to deal with.
Kidnapping or Hostage Situations
On 5 September 1972, Black September (a Palestinian group affiliated with the Popular
Front for the Liberation of Palestine, PFLP) managed to take nine members of the Israeli
Olympic team hostage at the Olympic Games in Munich. After a failed rescue attempt, the
nine athletes, five hostage‐takers and one policeman were killed. The incident is probably
the best‐known terrorist incident associated with sport. It not only showed how
vulnerable security at sports events might be, but also how valuable attacks directed at
athletes and VIPs are. Although much could be done to secure the protection of athletes at
a stadium, it is a challenge to ensure the same level of protection where they are housed
or while in transit to and from a stadium. The propaganda value of targeting athletes,
even if the outcome is the death or capture of members of the organisation or network, is
a definite concern.
Unconventional Tactics
After the events of 9/11, any possible scenario before any potential event will include the
possibility of a hijacked airplane, the use of a manned aircraft or of remote‐controlled
aeroplanes entering the airspace above it. Copying 9/11, any of the above‐mentioned
might attempt to crash into a stadium or, perhaps, release an airborne chemical agent.
Security and Pre‐Incident Planning
Assessing the likely risks is only the first step in successful security planning, and should
be followed by constructive plans to deal with any possible incident, including allocating
exact responsibilities. This is particularly necessary since a number of agencies and/or
departments will be involved in the case of the FIFA World Cup.
Basic security during the event should include the following:
•
Deterrence of a would‐be attacker. Potential targets can be protected by erecting
security barriers, implementing more rigorous search procedures and stepping‐up
access requirements to high‐risk areas. Security checks are of prime importance and
Article 18 of FIFA’s Safety Guidelines 32 specifically stipulates that: ‘Security checks
shall be carried out on persons at the entry/exit points of the outer and inner
perimeters, as well as at entry points to areas that are not open to the general
public…’.
FIFA (2003), ‘FIFA Safety Guidelines’, 24/XII/2003,
http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/competition/fifa%5fsafety%5fguidelines%5fe%5f1785.pdf,
accessed 9/V/2008.
32
22
•
•
•
•
Successful intelligence gathering and the effective interception of components
necessary for terrorist attacks.
An environmental assessment, to decide on the best course of action in response to a
particular threat.
Incident preparedness of all the players involved. The effectiveness of the security
plan will depend on the ability of all, from the lowest ranked official, to carry out their
assigned duties under all circumstances envisioned.
Effective communication between the various agencies involved.
In South Africa a comprehensive plan was drawn up under the guidance of a committee
that involved all the different players. In addition, a number of different scenarios were
tested to identify weaknesses and to enhance the cooperation between the agencies
involved.
A Sub‐regional Approach to Security
Preventing and combating terrorism requires an international –especially sub‐regional–
and integrated approach. In other words, a purely domestic policy will not be effective in
deterring potential threats. South Africa will register a tremendous influx of spectators
and tourists during the period of the World Cup and although a successful terrorist plot
requires long‐term planning, key role‐players might only arrive in the country
immediately before the event. If the persons involved are not already in the country they
need to gain entrance legally or illegally. If the security forces and law enforcement
agencies already know the potential suspect, officials need to have access to this
information at all points of entry. To be able to verify and assess the potential threat of
passengers on an airplane, such information needs to be made available as soon as
possible. In other words, the security and intelligence agencies need to have access to a
global database such as Interpol’s 24/7, but also information made available bilaterally.
Assisting the South African law enforcement and intelligence services will be their
respective counterparts from –particularly– the US and Europe. Countries participating in
the event will be interested in protecting their players and nationals visiting South Africa,
but also need to have a direct line of communication if any of their nationals should are
involved in an incident.
However, if the suspect is already known, it can be expected that he will use either false
travel documents or enter the country illegally. South Africa has a long and porous
border, which is not only used by potential terrorists but also by crime syndicates and
illegal immigrants.
23
Notwithstanding the fact that terrorism is normally categorised as a low‐level threat to
stability in the region, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) –on a
political level– and the Southern African Regional Police Chiefs Cooperation Organisation
(SARPCCO) –representing practitioners– have re‐affirmed the need for a sub‐regional
approach in preventing terrorism before, during and after the FIFA World Cup. They will
develop a new SARPCCO counter‐terrorism training manual for this purpose, and if
necessary investigate acts of terrorism. Since it will not be limited to counter‐terrorism or
the 2010 World Cup, as a sub‐regional bureau of Interpol SARPCCO will facilitate:
•
•
•
•
•
Regional co‐operation
Cross‐border crime
Information sharing
Interpol facilities
Regional training
The sub‐regional approach, particularly as regards securing borders and sharing
information, should ensure that constructive steps are taken to not only prevent terrorism
but, more importantly in the longer term, transnational organised crime.
South Africa’s Police Service and intelligence agencies will be responsible for security. To
further enhance these agencies, the government has granted R650 million to purchase
new equipment, including: eight Remote Operated Vehicles (ROV) –specifically designed
to dismantle explosive devices or gather information, particularly video material, in
unsecure situations–; six R44 Raven II helicopters; six command and control vehicles; and
crowd control management equipment. 33 The South African Police service has also
received specialised training and equipment from, among others, the US, the UK and
France. In addition, the police has also implemented plans to improve its access to
information. Most notably, and similar to the US and Europe, the passenger lists of
incoming flights will be forwarded to the authorities to ensure that ‘undesirable’
individuals do not enter the country. Probably the greatest challenge in this regard will be
to avoid an information overload, leading to the possibility that analysts might miss or
disregard data that at the time might be considered irrelevant but may prove to be
essential in the correct context.
Political leadership is, however, not the only essential element in presenting South Africa
as a safe venue. Additionally, there must be a criminal justice response to terrorism and,
in this respect, South Africa approved the Protection of Constitutional Democracy against
Terrorist and Related Activities Act in 2005. It is important to note that it took close to 10
years to draft, as it was necessary to create it through a transparent process that ensured
that the checks and balances essential to a liberal democracy were incorporated,
respecting the Rule of Law, Human Rights and due processes.
33
S. Smillie (2008), ‘Police Gear Up for 2010 Security’, The Star, 28/X/2008.
24
The Responsibility of the Security Agencies
Security at the World Cup will be the responsibility of FIFA in partnership with the South
African Police Service (SAPS). According to Article 30(1) of the Regulations of the 2010
FIFA World Cup, 34 South Africa as ‘the Organising Association is responsible for order
and security in and around the stadiums before, during and after the matches’. Although
the SAPS will be responsible for ensuring safety on the outer perimeters and in dealing
with an emergency situation, security within the stadiums will be the responsibility of
private security companies or ‘stewards’, as referred to in Article 21 of FIFA’s safety
guidelines: ‘Safety and order must be guaranteed from the moment the stadium is
opened. This also applies to the implementation of all responsibilities listed in these
guidelines’. Article 21 (6) lists the following duties:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Conducting security checks at entry points to the outer and inner perimeters as well
as to any other areas without general public access.
Protecting security‐relevant areas (eg, turnstiles, points of sale, team and referee
dressing rooms, rooms and areas reserved for VIPs as well as the vehicles of these
persons, and media representatives together with their technical equipment).
Ensuring that stadium sectors remain separated, in accordance with the
corresponding tickets.
Preventing fans from moving into another stadium sector for which they do not
possess a valid ticket.
Ensuring that all entry and exit points, as well as emergency exit routes, remain
unobstructed.
Manning entry and exit points, as well as emergency exit points to and from the
spectator sectors (particularly those with standing areas), from a stadium’s opening
until it is closed.
Preventing stadium visitors from gaining unauthorised access to areas for which they
have no authorisation and, in particular, from gaining access to the pitch and
immediate surroundings.
Protecting players and match officials when entering and leaving the field of play.
Controlling the flow of vehicles and spectators within the confines of the stadium.
Informing the police, first‐aid services, fire service and any other bodies of any
incidents that might pose a threat to security, in the event of security being unable to
eliminate the danger immediately.
FIFA (nd), ‘Regulations 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa’,
http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/competition/fifa_wc_south_africa_2010_regulations_en_14123.pdf,
accessed 9/V/2008.
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In addition to safety at the stadiums hosting the respective games, organisers and private
businesses must make provision for additional entertainment, including:
•
•
•
•
Exhibition halls at stadiums.
Big‐screen viewing facilities close to the stadium to allow people that do not have
access to the stadium to follow the event.
Big‐screen facilities outside the responsibility of FIFA.
Sports cafés that will also attract spectators.
These additional activities and venues pose their own specific security challenges.
Particularly, it should be realised that these ‘unofficial venues’ are confronted with
similar security threats and that controlling access and providing security might be
especially challenging. Terrorists who hope to attract media attention might decide to
avoid possible interception and capture at the actual venue and attack a large
concentration of people on a site without the necessary security measures.
The Role of Ordinary Citizens and Other Challenges
Ordinary citizens have an extremely important role to play in a country’s safety and
security, from reporting on criminal activities to informing of suspicious behaviour. It is
an unfortunate reality that safety and security, particularly as regards terrorism, is often
presented as solely the state’s business. Although the responsibility of informing the
police of any suspicious activity rests with the public, it cannot do so unless it is provided
with the adequate knowledge and without establishing a relationship of trust.
Although the Act does not define or clarify what is meant by suspicious behaviour, the
experience from previous terrorist incidents is that the following should arouse suspicion:
•
•
To people with a close relation with the potential suspect:
(a) Isolation and detachment from friends and family members.
(b) A sudden change in behaviour, eg, become extremely religious and insisting on
family members follow his/her example.
(c) Irritability, including mood swings or the opposite depending on the person and
type of group.
To people at the venue:
(a) Nervous behaviour, shortness of breath, excessive sweating, hot flushes, etc.
(b) Excessive clothing.
More challenging is the fact that for most South Africans, terrorism is a remote and almost
‘unreal’ threat –to the extent that a suspicious package might rather be taken than
considered a potential explosive device–. This fosters the perception that ‘it will never
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happen to us’ but, unfortunately, conditioning ordinary citizens to recognise the threat as
real and immediate only comes with experiencing terrorism itself.
Additionally, terrorism is still a very sensitive topic in South Africa. The country’s history,
and the conviction of South Africa’s Muslim community that the eight‐year US‐led ‘war
on terrorism’ is a ‘war on Islam’, followed by associated injustices and pro‐Palestinian
sentiment have further contributed to sensitivity about engaging on the topic without
being stigmatised as pro‐American. This is an easy sentiment for extremists to exploit.
Nevertheless, although some African communities are still sceptical of the US, the election
of President Obama and his policy of change might have an impact on perceptions.
South Africa is host to large legal and illegal immigrant communities. International
migration occurs daily as a result of both conflicts and economic opportunities and,
although a global trend, it has a definite impact on security. It is only natural that people
speaking the same language and having the same cultural heritage will stay together,
particularly when in a country illegally, immigrants find a sense of belonging and safety
in numbers. Often these communities are isolated, have a low level of integration and are
difficult to access or infiltrate by the security forces. They offer a natural refuge and are
vulnerable to the influence of extremists. The question of when and how a state should
integrate its non‐indigenous population is often left unanswered. In some cases large
foreign populations have been settled long enough to give rise to second‐generation
immigrants. As long as they are not assimilated into the host country, inner conflicts of
belonging can develop, particularly when it is felt that the host culture is not only
different but in conflict with the immigrant’s, leading to further isolation. They can
therefore offer terrorists a safe place to stay, where perhaps no questions are asked and
may even actively and knowingly support his ideals. As an international event, the FIFA
World Cup can be an attractive opportunity to exploit for the parties to a conflict to attack
one another even if it has nothing to do with South Africa.
Conclusion
Preparing and hosting the FIFA World Cup in 2010 will bring tremendous opportunities
to South Africa: from stimulating a sense of patriotism to foster nation‐building to
creating new employment opportunities and the building and/or revamping of
infrastructures. Nonetheless, with the positive also comes the negative: opportunities for
both criminals and terrorists to achieve their respective goals. This paper’s aim is to reflect
on a number of threats and vulnerabilities associated with hosting the FIFA World Cup
and thereby alerting visitors and ordinary citizens to the issues at stake. In other words,
its object is not to instil fear but rather to inform and make aware. It is an unfortunate
reality that ordinary crime is still the most immediate threat to visitors and spectators,
and although this paper has concentrated on the potential threat of terrorism, basic
principles such as communal responsibility and involvement are essential to prevent and
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combat basic criminal activities. Information empowers people, and by just a bit more
aware, and by not just noticing but also acting by informing the appropriate authorities of
suspicious behaviour or objects, ordinary people can play a valuable role in contributing
to a safe 2010 World Cup –thereby also contributing to the positive image of South Africa
as a safe destination–.
Anneli Botha
Senior Researcher on Terrorism at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Pretoria, South Africa
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