Socioeconomic and Demographic Trends of Northwest Indiana since 1970

Socioeconomic and Demographic Trends of Northwest Indiana since 1970 Micah Pollak* Indiana University Northwest Abstract Northwest Indiana is a region with a storied economic past. Once one of the dominant steel and manufacturing powerhouses of the United States, in the 1970s the region began a decline similar to other “rust belt” regions in the United States. Since the 1970s the region has undergone dramatic change as it struggles to define itself for the twenty-first century. Despite these challenges, the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics and trends, when viewed at the regional level, appear quite typical for United States. However, the representative nature of Northwest Indiana at this level conceals vast differences between cities within the region. In this paper I analyze the broad socioeconomic and demographic changes in Northwest Indiana at the city-level since the 1970s. I find significant variation between cities within the region in terms of trends in population, income, age, education, race, ethnicity and poverty. The former urban core of the region still faces significant challenges, while some of the surrounding cities and towns have been extremely successful and are developing faster than the state of Indiana and the Nation overall. Keywords: Northwest Indiana, Rust-Belt Economics, Gary Indiana PREPRINT VERSION This version: 4/27/2016 Latest version: 6/24/2016 Preprint of an article published in the Journal of the Indiana Academy of the Social Sciences, Vol. 19, 2016 © Indiana Academy of the Social Sciences Indiana University Northwest, School of Business & Economics, 3400 Broadway Gary, IN 46408, mpollak@iun.edu * 1 “Gary is a misnomer. The new steel capital on the southern lip of Lake Michigan […] should have been christened Economy, Indiana” -Will H. Moore (1909, 23) 1. Introduction In 1909, Will H. Moore, a Chicago real-estate man, wrote that the conditions in Gary, Indiana foretold the coming of a “second Pittsburgh – but smokeless, clean and attractive” (Moore 1909, 7). He had no idea how prescient his claim would be as Gary followed both the meteoric rise and then tumbling decline of other major manufacturing cities in the United States. Unfortunately for the city of Gary, another claim of Will H. Moore, did not hold true: “that if for any period through lessened demand the United States Steel Co.’s production should fall off onehalf, all of the steel they make will be made at Gary, and all their other still mills in the country closed down until demand increases” (Moore 1909, 7). While the decline of Gary is tragic, the implications go well beyond the city limits. Perhaps the saying ought to be “As Gary goes, so goes Northwest Indiana.” Despite the significant economic changes in Northwest Indiana since the 1970s, looking at the area from a regional level shows socioeconomic and demographic trends that are very similar to the state and the nation. However, by digging deeper and looking at Northwest Indiana from the scale of individual cities, dramatically different trends emerge. Northwest Indiana has been an important economic center of Indiana and the Midwest for more than a century. The rise of the region as a steel and manufacturing powerhouse began in the early 1900s with the construction of the United States Steel Company’s Gary Works, which according to Will H. Moore was, at the time, “the largest enterprise of the human race in all history” and represented “seven-eighths of the total capacity of all of the United States Steel Co.’s other mills in the United State put together” (Moore 1909, 7). As steel production grew, workers flocked to the region to take advantage of stable, high-paying jobs. Between 1920 and 1960, the percent of the state of Indiana’s population living in Lake County doubled from 5.5% to 11% and the population of the urban core cities in Lake County (Gary, Hammond & East Chicago) almost tripled, going from 127,349 to 347,687. At its economic peak in 1960, occupying only 1.7% of the land area of Indiana, Lake county was home to 11% of the State’s population and generated 11.8% of income in the state. 2 While today Northwest Indiana is not the world economic force it once was, it still remains important to both Indiana and the Midwest. In 2014 Lake County was home to 7.5% of the state’s population and generated 7.3% of the income in Indiana. The Gary Works remains U.S. Steel's largest domestic facility and in 2014 the Great Lakes region was responsible for about 40% of all steel produced in the United States, much of which was produced in Northwest Indiana (American Iron and Steel Institute 2014). In addition, Northwest Indiana remains a major transportation hub for the Midwest with major international ports at Indiana and Burns Harbors, an international airport in Gary, three “Class I” railroads, multiple major interstates as well as convenient access to the greater Chicago area. The economic forces behind the sudden economic decline of the urban manufacturing core of Northwest Indiana are similar to those behind the collapse of other “rust belt” cities like Detroit, Youngstown, Flint, or Cleveland. Despite the economic importance of the “rust belt” region in the United States in the 1960s and 1970s there is surprisingly little economic research on the decline of these regions. In general, the decline of these urban areas was primarily due to the overreliance on a single industry. High (2015) provides an overview of the economic and cultural factors leading up to the decline of North American manufacturing, with special focus on the steel industry. The traditional argument in the case of the steel industry is based on a combination of decreased competitiveness and increased pressure from international competition, Yoon (2013) argues that the decline of “rust belt” cities can be attributed in part to rapid technological change in manufacturing. Alder, Lagakos, & Ohanian (2014) construct a general equilibrium model which explains roughly half of the decline in manufacturing employment for the Great Lakes “rust belt” region by declines in investment and productivity. While there is limited research focusing on the economics of the collapse, there is even less focusing on “rust belt” regions in the long-term after the collapse. The two notable exceptions are Blanchard, Katz, Hall, & Eichengreen (1992) and Feyrer, Sacerdote, Stern, Saiz, & Strange (2007) that look at the long-term consequences of the collapse in manufacturing, steel and the automobile industry. Both of these works, however, focus on broadly aggregated “rust belt” regions. The first focuses on data at the state-level and the second focuses primarily on counties and Major Statistical Areas (MSAs). While Feyrer, Sacerdote, Stern, Saiz, & Strange (2007) do focus some on the city-level, their data does not include the “rust belt” cities of 3 Northwest Indiana. In addition, while focusing on the county-level may be reasonable for a city like Detroit, where in 1960 the city contained 63% of the county’s population, it is less reasonable for a city like Gary, which in 1960 contained only 35% of county’s population. In this paper I focus on the socioeconomic and demographic changes that occurred in the years after the decline of U.S. manufacturing in the 1960s and 1970s, within the region of Northwest Indiana at the city-level. While Barnes (2012) and O’Hara (2011) both discuss Northwest Indiana and some of the other cities in the region, their focus is primarily on the city of Gary. I demonstrate that the aggregate trends observed at the regional level for Northwest Indiana do not accurately reflect trends at the city-level. When viewed at a regional level, Northwest Indiana appears to be fairly representative of the United States in terms of levels and trends in income, education, age, race, ethnicity and poverty rates. However, looking more closely at the city-level, broad disparity in these variables emerge. To the best of my knowledge, this paper is the first to characterize and analyze the socioeconomic and demographic trends since 1970 within the region of Northwest Indiana and specifically among and between all the major cities and city groups in the region. 2. Background Information The focus of this paper is on the major socioeconomic and demographic trends in Northwest Indiana at the city-level. While the exact definition of the term “Northwest Indiana” varies, for the purposes of this paper, and unless specified otherwise, the term “Northwest Indiana” will refer to the four counties in the geographic northwest of Indiana, or the counties of Lake, Newton, Porter and Jasper. This definition is also chosen to be consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ definition of the Gary Metropolitan Area. In addition, I will use the term “regional level” to refer to data aggregated for this Northwest Indiana region. The main source of data will be the U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing for years before 2000, and the U.S. Census Annual Community Survey for years after 2000. In 2014, in Northwest Indiana there were eleven major cities with a population of over 20,000. These eleven cities account for over 60% of the population in Northwest Indiana. For this analysis I focus primarily on these eleven major cities, comparing both across them, as well 4 as with the Northwest Indiana region, the state and nation. Figure 1 provides a map of Northwest Indiana with the location of these eleven cities. Figure 1 - Map of Northwest Indiana and Major Cities Source: U.S. Census Bureau Geographic Cartographic Boundary Files Between 1900 and 1970 the population of Northwest Indiana grew twice as fast as the nation and three times as fast as the State of Indiana. After 1970, the population growth of Northwest Indiana abruptly stopped. From 1970 to 2014 the population of the United States grew by more than 110 million (by 54.5%, or 1% per annum) while the population of Indiana grew by more than 1.3 million (by 25.9%, or 0.5% per annum). During this same period, the population of the Northwest Indiana remained relatively stagnant, adding only 40 thousand people (6.2% growth, or 0.1% per annum). While at the regional level population remained relatively unchanged, within the major cities of Northwest Indiana the population changes were dramatic. Table 1 shows the population change between 1970 and 2014 for the eleven major cities in Northwest Indiana as well as at the county level, for Indiana and for the United States. 5 Table 1 - Population Changes for Northwest Indiana Cities (1970-2014) Count/City 1970 Lake County 546,253 Schererville 3,663 Crown Point 10,931 Merrillville 15,918 Munster 16,514 Hobart 21,485 Highland 24,947 Hammond 107,790 East Chicago 46,982 Gary 175,022 Porter County 87,114 Portage 19,127 Valparaiso 20,020 Newton County 11,606 Jasper County 20,429 665,402 NWI Combined Counties (Lake, Porter, Newton & Jasper) Indiana 5,195,392 United States 203,302,031 Annualized 2014 % Change Growth Rate 493,140 -9.7% -0.2% 29,082 693.9% 4.8% 28,259 158.5% 2.2% 35,262 121.5% 1.8% 23,325 41.2% 0.8% 29,136 35.6% 0.7% 23,429 -6.1% -0.1% 79,585 -26.2% -0.7% 29,387 -37.5% -1.1% 79,165 -54.8% -1.8% 165,819 90.3% 1.5% 37,008 93.5% 1.5% 31,745 58.6% 1.1% 14,140 21.8% 0.4% 33,443 63.7% 1.1% 706,542 6.2% 0.1% 6,542,411 314,107,084 25.9% 54.5% 0.5% 1.0% Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1970-2000), American Community Survey (2010,2014) Following the peak of the American steel industry in 1970, the precipitous decline that followed led to a mass exodus of people from the traditional urban and manufacturing core cities in Northwest Indiana. The city of Gary was the hardest hit, losing half of its population in less than 40 years. East Chicago and Hammond also suffered, losing 37.5% and 26.2% of their population respectively between 1970 and 2014. Despite this staggering decline in population, many did not move far. The declines in population in the urban core were offset by strong population growth in neighboring cities. Much of the population growth in these cities during this time was driven by manufacturing workers relocating from the urban core cities (Barnes 2012, O’Hara 2011). While more than 140,000 people left the three cities of Gary, East Chicago and Hammond between 1970 and 2014, the remaining eight major cities in the region added more than 100,000 people. For complete data on population in Northwest Indiana cities & counties between 1970 and 2014 see Table 3 in section 5. 6 The eleven major cities in Northwest Indiana today can be roughly categorized into four groups based on median household income and location. These groups also share many socioeconomic and demographic similarities. To aid discussion, I will focus on the four city groups shown in Table 2 wherever possible and highlight whenever there is a significant deviation by a city within a group. Group Group 4 3 Group 2 Group 1 Table 2 – Northwest Indiana Major City Grouping Median Household Income (2014) $27,458 27,215 39,771 49,711 55,840 62,738 64,250 69,011 72,532 51,180 49,656 City Gary East Chicago Hammond Merrillville Hobart Highland Crown Point Schererville Munster Portage Valparaiso County Lake Lake Lake Lake Lake Lake Lake Lake Lake Porter Porter Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey (2014) While these city groups are based on income and county, there is another interpretation of their grouping. Group 1 represents the traditional urban core of Lake County, heavily focused on steel production and manufacturing. These three cities were also the three largest cities in the region for most of the 20th century. Group 2 represents cities immediately neighboring group 1 that primarily served as bedroom communities for workers in the urban core. Group 3 represents a mix of traditionally rural towns and suburban cities, all one degree further away from the urban core and even less directly involved with manufacturing. Finally, group 4 represents the two major cities to the east in Porter County. 3. City-Level Trends & Analysis Between 1970 and 2014 at the regional level, Northwest Indiana appeared relatively typical compared to the state of Indiana and the United States overall. Socioeconomic and 7 demographic variables such as median household income, median age, race and ethnicity in Northwest Indiana tracked fairly closely with the state and nation. However, aggregation at the regional level conceals significantly different trends within Northwest Indiana at the city (and city group) level. One area in which the trend at the regional level conceals changes at the city-level is in median household income. Figure 2 shows the real median household income between 1970 and 2014 for the four city groups in Northwest Indiana. In 1970 median household income in the urban core (group 1) was similar to the state and national median household income. As the steel industry continued to struggle, median household income in these cities fell significantly below the national average. In 2014 the median household income for the cities Gary and East Chicago was $26,000 less than, or approximately half, of the national average. Hammond did not fall as far with median household income, dropping to 75% of the national average. Figure 2 - Median Household Income $ , $ , Median (ousehold )ncome dollars $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Group Munster, Schererville, Crown Point , Group (ighland, (obard, Merrillville , Group Portage, Valparaiso , Group (ammond, East Chicago, Gary , , NW) Combined Counties , , )ndiana United States $ Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1970-1990), American Community Survey (2000-2014) While historically the other city groups (groups 2, 3 and 4) were well above the state and national median household income, the difference for most has shrunk over time. Only the cities in group 3 (as well as Highland in group 2) remain significantly above the state and national median household income. For the cities in group 3, the median household income has 8 consistently remained at least 20-30% higher than the national median since 1970. These trends at the city-level can be explained by older, more affluent households with higher life-cycle earnings, leaving the urban core cities and relocating to the other cities in Northwest Indiana. For complete data on median household income in Northwest Indiana cities & counties between 1970 and 2014 see Table 4 in section 5. The median age for the population of Northwest Indiana has also closely followed the trend at the state and national level. However, similar to income, the difference in median age across cities in the region has been widening. Figure 3 shows the median age by city group between 1970 and 2014. Since 1990, the more affluent city groups 2 and 3 have been well above the state and national median age while groups 1 and 4 have fallen further below. Since 1970 the median age for group 1 cities has gone from 1.7 years younger than the nation to 2.3 years younger while the median age for groups 2 and 3 grew older relative to the nation. The median age of group 2 went from 2.8 years younger than the nation to 1.3 years older. Group 3 went from 0.3 years older to 3.9 years older. Group 4 went from 4.9 years younger to 1.5 years younger. For complete data on median age in Northwest Indiana cities & counties between 1970 and 2014 see Table 5 in section 5. Figure 3 - Median Age Group Munster, Schererville, Crown Point Group (ighland, (obard, Merrillville Median Age Group Portage, Valparaiso Group (ammond, East Chicago, Gary NW) Combined Counties )ndiana United States Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1970-1990), American Community Survey (2000-2014) 9 Relative changes to the median age of a city’s population do not always have an immediately obvious economic interpretation, and may be positive or negative depending on what drives the change. For example, a decrease in the median population age may be beneficial and signal potential for strong future growth if it is driven by an inflow of a younger, welleducated individuals, or it can be a symptom of economic decline if it reflects the moving away of older, more affluent households. Likewise, an aging population could be a symptom of economic decline in the long-term if there are not sufficient young households to maintain the city population, or it could reflect the establishment of a more stable and wealthier community if caused by the inflow of older, higher-income households and individuals. When combined with changes in median household income in Figure 2 and the level of education in Figure 4 (which is discussed below), the decrease in median age for the urban core cities and the increase in median age for the other cities shows a clear picture of inter-city relocation in the region. Beginning in 1970 and earlier, the decline of the steel industry drove older, more affluent households away from the urban core and into the other city groups. Those that remained in the urban core were, on average, younger, less well-educated, lower-income and generally less mobile. While these trends in median household income and median age are visible when viewed at the city-level, they offset each other and disappear when aggregated to the regional level. However, there are trends in some other socioeconomic and demographic characteristics that are significant enough to be visible at the regional level. These trends exhibit even greater variation when viewed at the city and city group level. One of the best predictors of lifetime earnings is education level. The median lifetime earnings for a worker with a bachelor’s degree are 74% higher than with only a high school diploma and 133% higher than with no high school diploma (Carnevale, Rose and Cheah 2011). As a result, trends in education are likely to be closely related to trends in household income. Figure 4 shows the percent of the college-aged population (those 25 years and older) with a bachelor’s degree or higher by city group. Because the city of Valparaiso differs significantly from Portage, group 4 is broken up into the two individual cities. Unlike median household income and median age, the education level in Northwest Indiana is noticeably different than that of the state and nation. In 1970 the percent of the college-aged population in Northwest Indiana with at least a bachelor’s degree was 6.8% compared to Indiana’s 8.3% (or 18% lower) and the 10 Nation’s 10.7% (or 35.9% lower). Since then Northwest Indiana has seen growth in college education, but still remains well behind the state and the nation. In 2014 the percent of the college-aged population in Northwest Indiana with at least a bachelor’s degree was up to 21.1% compared to Indiana at 23.6% and the nation at 29.3%. For complete data on percent of population in Northwest Indiana cities & counties with at least a bachelor’s degree between 1970 and 2014 see Table 6 in section 5. Figure 4 - Percent with Bachelor's Degrees or Higher Valparaiso % Group Munster, Schererville, Crown Point % with Bachelor's Degree or (igher % % Group (ighland, (obard, Merrillville % Portage % Group (ammond, East Chicago, Gary % NW) Combined Counties )ndiana % United States % Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1970-1990), American Community Survey (2000-2014) Viewed from a regional level, Northwest Indiana appears to be behind the state and the nation in terms of college education, but still roughly keeping pace. However, in the cities within the region the story is different. In the group 1 cities, the college education rate has increased from 5.1% in 1970 (38% below the state and 52% below the nation) to only 12.3% in 2014 (48% below the state and 58% below the nation). Within group 1, the college education rates in 2014 were 7.5% in East Chicago, 13.1% in Gary and 13.2% in Hammond. In 2014 all of the cities in group 3, along with the city of Valparaiso,1 had an education rate significantly higher than both Valparaiso is home to Valparaiso University, a major private residential university, which likely explains why the college education rate is much higher than in Portage despite their similar socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. 1 11 the state and the nation while the remaining seven other cities had an education rate significantly lower than both the state and the nation. While the percent of the population that is collegeeducated has been increasing in the urban core cities, it has not been increasing fast enough to keep up with expansion of education in the state and nation. At the regional level, the race and ethnicity demographics for Northwest Indiana appear quite typical for the United States. In 2014 Northwest Indiana was 71% white, 18% black and 15% Hispanic or Latino compared to the national average of 74% white, 13% black and 17% Hispanic or Latino. For the most part, between 1970 and 2014 regional racial and ethnicity demographics have followed national trends quite closely. However, race and ethnicity at the individual city-level differs dramatically from the aggregate for the region. Figure 5 and Figure 6 show the racial and ethnicity trends for Northwest Indiana. One of the fundamental stories behind the social and economic change in Northwest Indiana is the racial component of the mass exodus of population from Gary in the 1960s and later. O’Hara (2011) and Barnes (2012) discuss the social and economic reasons behind this mass outmigration from the city, which include the decline of the steel industry as well as racism and backlash after the election of one of the nation’s first black mayors, Richard G. Hatcher. According to Barnes (2012), during this time there was an migration out of the city by whites to cities like Merrillville and Portage. This type of race-based outmigration also occurred in other urban manufacturing areas like Detroit and a more detailed economic analysis of this type of trend in other U.S. cities can be found in Frey (1980). Evidence of this trend also can be seen in the census data. Figure 5 shows the white percent of the population for cities in Northwest Indiana between 1960 and 2014. The most striking trend is for Gary which went from 61% white in 1960 to 16% white only 30 years later. 12 Figure 5 - City Racial Composition, % White Groups , and minus Merrillville % % % % Percent White % (ammond % Merrillville % % % % % East Chicago NW) Combined Counties )ndiana United States Gary Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1960-1990), American Community Survey (2000-2014) Gary was not the only urban core city that experienced a widespread outmigration by race as East Chicago and Hammond also saw a significant decrease in the percent of their white population. East Chicago went from 76% white in 1960 to 27% white in 2014 while Hammond went from 98% white in 1960 to 52% white in 2014. Occurring later, the neighboring city of Merrillville also went from 98% white in 1980 to 43% white in 2014. All four of these cities experienced an almost 50 percentage point reduction in their white population over fifty years or less. While the percentage of the population that is white in Gary remains extremely low, it increased in 2014 for the first time in the history of the city since its initial founding. The other seven cities in Northwest Indiana have been relatively homogenous in terms of racial composition since 1970, decreasing from 100% white in 1960 to an average of 86% white, with no two cities ever differing by more than a few percentage points. For more complete data on race in Northwest Indiana cities & counties between 1960 and 2014 see Table 7 in section 5. If the racial changes in the urban core cities can be thought of as the major racial trend in the region, then the changes in the Hispanic and Latino population in East Chicago and Hammond represent the major ethnicity trend. Like racial composition, the ethnic composition of Northwest Indiana at the regional level is similar to the United States. However, ethnicity is 13 significantly different for some individual cities in the region. Figure 6 shows the percent of the population of Hispanic or Latino descent by city group between 1980 and 2014. Figure 6 - City Ethnicity, % Hispanic or Latino NW) Combined Counties )ndiana United States % % Percent (ispanic or Latino East Chicago % (ammond % % Groups , , % Gary % Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1980-1990), American Community Survey (2000-2014) Since at least 1980 East Chicago has been home to a much larger Hispanic and Latino population than national average and since 2000 the city has been majority Hispanic and Latino (50% in 2014). In Hammond the percent of the population Hispanic or Latino in 1980 was 8%, which was close to the national average. This rate began increasing in 1990 and by 2014 more than 36% of the population in Hammond identified as Hispanic or Latino. In contrast to these two urban core cities, Gary has the lowest percent of population that is Hispanic or Latino at 6% in 2014. The remaining eight cities in groups 2, 3 and 4 had a proportion of Hispanic and Latino that in 2014 ranged from 7-17% and averaged 12.3%, which was well below the national average of 17%. For more complete data on ethnicity in Northwest Indiana cities & counties between 1980 and 2014 see Table 8 in section 5. One final important socioeconomic variable is the number of families living below the poverty rate. The definition of poverty level is determined in the census by a poverty threshold that has varied over time and is based on family size and composition. For example, in 2014 the 14 poverty threshold for a family of two adults and two children was $24,008. Like many of the other characteristics mentioned so far, the poverty rate for Northwest Indiana as a region has followed closely the level and trend of state and national poverty rates. In 2014 the poverty rate for Northwest Indiana was 12.3%, compared to 11.5% for the United States and 11.3% for the State of Indiana. However, within the city groups of Northwest Indiana there is considerable disparity. Figure 7 shows the poverty rates of the city groups from 1970 to 2014. Not surprisingly, there is a strong inverse correlation between the poverty rates shown in this figure and median household income in Figure 2. Figure 7 - Poverty Rates % percent of families with income below the poverty level % % Group (ammond, East Chicago, Gary NW) Combined Counties )ndiana United States Group Portage, Valparaiso % % Group (ighland, (obard, Merrillville % Group Munster, Schererville, Crown Point % Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1970-1990), American Community Survey (2000-2014) Consistent with their low median household income, the urban core cities in group 1 have the highest poverty rate in Northwest Indiana with a rate of 34% in East Chicago, 33% in Gary and 20% in Hammond. The poverty rate in East Chicago and Hammond has been in the double digits since 1990 while Gary it has been in the double digits since 1970. In 1970 the cities in group 4 were well below the national poverty rate, but have since seen poverty rise. In 2014 Portage had a poverty rate of 11.9% and Valparaiso had a poverty rate of 10.5%, both close to the national average of 11.5%. The other two city groups, group 2 and 3, have consistently 15 maintained a poverty rate well below the national average. For complete data on poverty in Northwest Indiana cities & counties between 1970 and 2014 see Table 9 in section 5. 4. Conclusions To an outsider, Northwest Indiana might look fairly representative of the United States. In 2014 the median household income was within 1% of the national median household income and median age was within one year of both the state and national median age. The percent of the population with at least a bachelor’s degree was also close to the national average. The racial and ethnic diversity of the region was similar to the nation, with 71% of the population white, 18% black and 15% Hispanic or Latino (compared to the U.S. national averages of 74%, 13% and 17% respectively). The poverty rate in Northwest Indiana was lower, but similar to, the national rate. In addition, all of these socioeconomic and demographic characteristics have tracked fairly close to their national counterparts going back to 1970. However, the representative nature of Northwest Indiana at the regional level conceals wide differences in the characteristics and trends of the cities within the region. At the city-level there is a strong dichotomy between the traditional urban core cities and those less closely tied to the steel industry. The urban core still accounts for 40% of the population in the region but has seen sharp declines in population. Gary and East Chicago, the largest and third largest city in the region for most of the twentieth century, have both lost more than 50% of their population since 1970. Over the same time, the median household income in these cities fell to half the national median. While not quite as extreme, in Hammond the population has declined by 29% and income by 36% since 1970. The population that remains in these cities is younger and less well-educated. 36% of Hammond’s population is Hispanic or Latino and 50% in East Chicago. Gary is 83% black and is one of the largest minority-majority cities in the United States, surpassed only by Detroit. Finally, the poverty rate in these urban core cities has steadily climbed since 1970 and in 2014 was two to three times the national rate, with one out of every three people in Gary and East Chicago below the poverty threshold. In contrast to the urban core cities, the larger traditionally rural towns and suburban cities in Northwest Indiana that are further away from the urban core have prospered, in part because of the population migration out of the urban core. Those that could afford to relocate were older, 16 wealthier and better educated households and families. As a result, since 1970, cities like Munster, Schererville and Crown Point saw their population, median household income and education rates all grow significantly faster than the state and nation. Positioned between these two groups (both geographically and economically) are the remaining major cities in Northwest Indiana. These cities have also seen their population grow from their proximity to the urban core cities, but have not benefited to the same extent. Median household income for these cities, which was 20-30% higher than the national median in 1970, has fallen to be on par with the nation. While the percent of the population with a college degree increased by 19 percentage points nationwide since 1970, in these cities (with the exception of Valparaiso) it increased by only half as much. Over the same time, poverty rates, which are still below the national average, have been increasing faster than for the state and the nation. Despite its nationally representative appearance at the regional level, Northwest Indiana features profoundly different socioeconomic and demographic trends within the region among its major cities. These differences, which are only visible at the city-level or finer, illustrate the challenges the region faces in developing a healthy and sustainable economy in the future. Understanding the past trends is the first step towards reversing the negative ones. Any successful strategy to grow the economy of Northwest Indiana as a whole must acknowledge and take into consideration these historical trends in order to provide a comprehensive plan for economic growth in Northwest Indiana. 17 5. Additional Data Tables Many of the data referenced in this paper are not available in a fully digitalized and convenient form, as the U.S. Decennial Census was not fully digitalized until 1990. This section includes the compiled data tables underlying the earlier figures for the reader’s reference. Table 3 – Population in Northwest Indiana Cities and Counties, 1970-2014 City/County Lake County Hammond East Chicago Gary Highland Hobart Merrillville Munster Schererville Crown Point Porter County Portage Valparaiso Newton County Jasper County Indiana United States 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 546,253 522,965 475,594 484,564 496,005 493,140 107,983 93,714 84,236 83,048 80,830 79,585 46,982 39,786 33,892 32,414 29,698 29,387 175,415 151,968 116,646 102,746 80,195 79,165 24,947 25,935 23,696 23,546 23,727 23,429 21,485 22,987 21,822 25,363 29,059 29,136 15,918 27,677 27,257 30,560 35,246 35,262 16,514 20,671 19,949 21,511 23,603 23,325 3,663 13,209 20,155 24,851 29,243 29,082 10,931 16,455 17,728 19,806 27,317 28,259 87,114 119,816 128,932 146,798 164,343 165,819 19,127 27,409 29,062 33,496 36,828 37,008 20,020 22,247 24,414 27,428 31,730 31,745 11,606 14,844 13,551 14,566 14,244 14,140 20,429 26,138 24,960 30,043 33,478 33,443 5,195,392 5,490,224 5,544,159 6,080,485 6,483,802 6,542,411 203,302,031 226,545,805 248,709,873 281,421,906 308,745,538 314,107,084 Combined Cities & Counties Group 1 330,380 Group 2 46,432 Group 3 31,108 Group 4 39,147 NWI Combined 578,288 Counties 285,468 76,599 50,335 49,656 683,763 234,774 72,775 57,832 53,476 643,037 218,208 79,469 66,168 60,924 675,971 190,723 88,032 80,163 68,558 708,070 188,137 87,827 80,666 68,753 706,542 Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1970-2000), American Community Survey (2010,2014) 18 Table 4 - Median Household Income in Northwest Indiana Cities & Counties, 1970-2014 (in constant year 2014 dollars) City/County Lake County Hammond East Chicago Gary Highland Hobart Merrillville Munster Schererville Crown Point Porter County Portage Valparaiso Newton County Jasper County Indiana United States 1970 $62,231 62,151 52,508 55,992 72,837 68,726 54,669 86,152 70,642 69,461 66,205 67,916 66,034 50,347 50,050 56,853 54,686 1980 $60,107 56,304 48,465 48,620 75,693 66,824 72,006 88,119 69,157 67,898 68,271 69,351 58,256 50,874 53,063 49,599 47,508 1990 $52,599 46,454 33,508 33,506 68,147 59,793 62,590 83,779 73,713 64,868 64,182 59,901 54,609 49,463 49,328 49,761 51,937 2000 $54,654 46,421 34,675 35,566 67,025 62,402 64,736 82,634 77,408 69,105 69,381 62,064 59,842 53,498 56,666 54,312 54,870 Combined Cities & Counties (weighted average by population) Group 1 57,510 51,121 38,152 39,565 Group 2 70,935 71,699 63,561 64,670 Group 3 78,461 76,533 74,474 76,622 Group 4 66,954 64,380 57,485 61,063 NWI Combined 61,562 61,068 54,728 57,917 Counties 2010 $52,483 41,513 31,237 29,995 62,569 58,492 53,627 75,651 72,599 68,795 65,588 53,819 51,016 54,635 59,345 51,378 55,920 2014 $49,617 39,771 27,215 27,458 62,738 55,840 49,711 72,532 69,011 64,250 62,818 51,180 49,656 49,769 56,214 48,737 53,482 35,070 57,643 72,201 52,522 55,892 32,629 55,219 68,361 50,476 53,030 Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1970-2000), American Community Survey (2010,2014) 19 Table 5 - Median Age in Northwest Indiana Cities & Counties, 1970-2014 City/County Lake County Hammond East Chicago Gary Highland Hobart Merrillville Munster Schererville Crown Point Porter County Portage Valparaiso Newton County Jasper County Indiana United States 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 26.0 28.2 33.0 35.9 37.4 27.7 29.4 32.6 33.9 33.3 27.7 27.6 30.7 30.8 30.9 25.2 26.0 31.2 33.6 36.7 24.7 30.2 35.7 39.8 41.5 26.0 29.8 34.9 37.7 38.0 27.9 31.8 36.2 37.0 36.7 29.3 35.3 40.4 42.9 44.8 23.9 26.5 32.4 37.2 40.9 27.1 31.9 35.7 40.5 39.6 24.1 27.2 32.8 36.3 38.4 22.7 27.3 32.7 35.4 36.4 23.6 25.9 31.0 32.7 33.4 29.5 29.1 33.7 37.3 42.4 24.5 27.0 32.0 35.0 38.0 27.2 29.2 32.8 35.2 37.0 28.1 30.0 32.9 35.3 37.2 2014 37.8 34.2 29.8 37.9 42.0 38.9 36.4 44.3 40.5 39.6 39.0 37.9 33.5 42.9 38.7 37.2 37.4 Combined Cities & Counties (weighted average by population) Group 1 26.4 27.3 31.6 33.3 34.4 Group 2 25.3 30.7 35.6 38.1 38.4 Group 3 28.4 31.9 36.2 40.0 41.6 Group 4 23.2 26.7 31.9 34.2 35.0 NWI Combined Counties 26.0 28.0 32.9 36.0 37.8 35.1 38.7 41.3 35.9 38.2 Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1970-2000), American Community Survey (2010,2014) 20 Table 6 - Percent of College-aged Population with at least a Bachelor's Degree in Northwest Indiana Cities & Counties, 1970-2014 (percent of age 25+) City/County Lake County Hammond East Chicago Gary Highland Hobart Merrillville Munster Schererville Crown Point Porter County Portage Valparaiso Newton County Jasper County Indiana United States 1970 6.3% 5.1% 3.6% 5.6% 9.9% 7.5% 10.4% 20.6% 8.1% 13.9% 10.8% 4.5% 19.2% 3.9% 6.2% 8.3% 10.7% 1980 10.1% 7.0% 5.5% 7.6% 14.4% 9.3% 13.4% 28.0% 11.2% 15.7% 14.7% 6.6% 27.7% 8.3% 9.3% 12.5% 16.2% 1990 2000 12.8% 16.2% 9.2% 11.3% 6.6% 7.1% 8.8% 10.1% 18.9% 22.1% 11.7% 14.2% 15.1% 20.2% 33.2% 39.2% 25.3% 29.5% 20.9% 25.0% 18.5% 22.6% 9.3% 10.1% 27.9% 34.5% 8.1% 9.6% 10.8% 13.0% 17.6% 19.4% 20.3% 24.40% Combined Cities & Counties Group 1 5.1% 7.1% 8.7% Group 2 9% 13% 15% Group 3 16.9% 16.8% 26.8% Group 4 11.8% 15.8% 17.5% NWI Combined Counties 6.8% 10.8% 13.8% 10.1% 19% 31.4% 20.8% 17.3% 2010 18.9% 12.1% 8.6% 11.6% 25.0% 16.2% 18.9% 35.6% 31.7% 30.1% 25.2% 13.8% 36.2% 9.5% 14.2% 22.4% 27.9% 2014 20.0% 13.2% 7.5% 13.1% 27.0% 15.8% 20.2% 40.5% 32.8% 31.3% 26.4% 15.4% 35.9% 9.1% 15.3% 23.6% 29.3% 11.4% 20% 32.4% 23.6% 19.9% 12.3% 21% 34.5% 24.5% 21.1% Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1970-2000), American Community Survey (2010,2014) 21 Table 7 - Percent of Population White in Northwest Indiana Cities & Counties, 1960-2014 City/County Lake County Hammond East Chicago Gary Highland Hobart Merrillville Munster Schererville Crown Point Porter County Portage Valparaiso Newton County Jasper County Indiana United States 1960 83% 98% 76% 61% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 89% 1970 79% 95% 72% 47% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99% 93% 87% 1980 71% 89% 48% 25% 99% 98% 98% 97% 98% 98% 98% 97% 98% 99% 99% 91% 83% 1990 70% 85% 38% 16% 98% 98% 92% 95% 96% 97% 98% 97% 98% 99% 99% 91% 80% 2000 67% 72% 37% 12% 94% 94% 70% 92% 91% 95% 95% 93% 94% 97% 98% 87% 75% 2010 64% 59% 35% 11% 89% 85% 46% 86% 87% 88% 91% 84% 90% 96% 96% 84% 72% 2014 62% 52% 27% 12% 84% 86% 43% 82% 85% 86% 92% 87% 91% 97% 97% 84% 74% Combined Cities & Counties Group 1 75% Group 2 100% Group 3 100% Group 4 100% NWI Combined Counties 85% 66% 100% 99% 100% 83% 49% 98% 97% 98% 78% 44% 96% 96% 97% 78% 39% 85% 93% 93% 75% 35% 71% 87% 86% 73% 31% 68% 84% 89% 71% Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1960-2000), American Community Survey (2010,2014) 22 Table 8 - Percentage of Population Hispanic or Latino in Northwest Indiana Cities & Counties, 1980-2014 City/County Lake County Hammond East Chicago Gary Highland Hobart Merrillville Munster Schererville Crown Point Porter County Portage Valparaiso Newton County Jasper County Indiana United States 1980 8% 8% 42% 7% 3% 3% 5% 2% 3% 2% 2% 5% 1% 1% 1% 1.6% 6.4% 1990 2000 2010 2014 9% 12% 17% 17% 12% 21% 34% 36% 48% 52% 51% 50% 6% 5% 5% 6% 4% 7% 13% 15% 5% 8% 14% 13% 7% 10% 13% 14% 3% 5% 10% 12% 4% 6% 11% 12% 2% 4% 8% 7% 3% 5% 2% 9% 6% 10% 16% 17% 1% 3% 7% 8% 1% 3% 1% 6% 1% 2% 1% 6% 1.8% 3.5% 6.0% 6.3% 9.0% 12.5% 16.3% 16.9% Combined Cities & Counties Group 1 12.4% 14.0% 18.0% Group 2 3.6% 5.3% 8.2% Group 3 2.2% 2.8% 5.2% Group 4 3.3% 4.1% 7.0% NWI Combined Counties 6.9% 7.6% 10.0% 24.5% 13.2% 9.6% 12.1% 12.2% 25.4% 13.9% 10.0% 13.0% 14.6% Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1980-2000), American Community Survey (2010,2014) 23 Table 9 - Percent of Families with Income Below the Poverty Level in Northwest Indiana Cities & Counties, 1970-2014 City/County Lake County Hammond East Chicago Gary Highland Hobart Merrillville Munster Schererville Crown Point Porter County Portage Valparaiso Newton County Jasper County Indiana United States 1970 1980 7.4% 9.2% 5.0% 6.9% 10.9% 5.0% 12.3% 18.0% 2.4% 2.3% 4.7% 3.5% 2.2% 2.5% 1.9% 2.5% 4.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 4.5% 3.8% 3.1% 4.6% 3.5% 3.2% 9.0% 7.2% 8.5% 6.2% 7.4% 8.0% 10.7% 9.6% 1990 2000 2010 2014 11.7% 9.7% 12.20% 14.2% 11.8% 12.0% 17.30% 20.0% 24.5% 22.5% 31.20% 34.3% 26.4% 22.2% 28.10% 33.3% 2.5% 1.8% 3.90% 4.3% 3.9% 2.9% 4.00% 7.6% 2.9% 2.6% 7.80% 9.7% 0.7% 2.8% 1.80% 6.9% 2.7% 1.4% 3.80% 3.7% 2.2% 2.1% 3.90% 4.3% 4.6% 3.9% 6.60% 8.2% 7.3% 5.8% 9.70% 11.9% 5.1% 4.8% 8.90% 10.5% 6.5% 4.8% 4.80% 7.9% 7.2% 4.6% 7.70% 6.2% 7.9% 6.7% 9.60% 11.3% 9.6% 9.2% 10.10% 11.5% Combined Cities & Counties (weighted average by population) Group 1 9.7% 12.5% 20.9% 18.4% Group 2 3.1% 2.7% 3.1% 2.5% Group 3 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% Group 4 3.3% 4.0% 6.3% 5.3% NWI Combined Counties 7.1% 8.1% 10.0% 8.1% 24.0% 27.8% 5.5% 7.6% 3.2% 4.8% 9.3% 11.3% 10.5% 12.3% Source: U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing (1970-2000), American Community Survey (2010,2014) 24 6. 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