FEATURE
OCEAN PREDICTION AND THE ATLANTIC
BASIN: SCIENTIFIC ISSUES AND
TECHNICAL CHALLENGES
By J. Dana Thompson, Tamara L. Townsend,
A. Wallcraft and W.J. Schmitz, Jr.
"Prediction is hard, especially about the future."
Nils Bohr
TheGulf Stream
System has been a
central focus for
oceanography since
the time of Ben
Franklin and packet
ships.
T H E ATLANTIC is the best observed and most
studied of the ocean basins. The Gulf Stream System has been a central focus for oceanography
since the time of Ben Franklin and packet ships.
In the North Atlantic, ocean science has been vigorously pressed to improve observations and basic
understanding for the practical benefits of commerce and strategic concerns. Demands for ocean
"nowcasts" (the current state of the ocean) and
forecasts on time scales from the mesoscale (10s
ofkm, days to weeks) to the basin and global scale
(1,000s of km, months to decades) originate from
an extraordinarily diverse community, including
scientists planning and undertaking field programs, designers of new observing systems, military strategists, commercial interests, protectors
of the environment, and those concerned with regional climate prediction and global change.
In the Navy Ocean Modeling and Prediction
(NOMP) Program the Atlantic has served as the
first test bed for research and development of limited-area ocean-forecast capabilities and their
transition to an operational system (initially in
the Gulf Stream from Cape Hatteras to the Grand
Banks). This area has historically been of high
priority for naval operations. Sponsored research
by the Office of Naval Research (ONR), the National Science Foundation (NSF), other government agencies, and the international community
J.D. Thompson, T.L. Townsend, Ocean Sensing and Prediction Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space
Center, MS 39529-5004, USA. A. Wallcraft, Planning Systems
Incorporated, Slidell, LA 70458, USA. W.J. Schmitz, Woods
Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543,
USA.
36
have focused on the Gulf Stream and Northwest
Atlantic for several decades [e.g., The Mid-Ocean
Dynamics Experiment (MODE, POLYMODE),
The Regional Energetics Experiment (REX), The
Synoptic Ocean Prediction Program (SYNOP) ].
As a consequence, the basic scientific understanding and data bases are relatively good (by oceanographic standards) for that portion of the Atlantic
basin. (Compared with the atmosphere, however,
the data availability is quite poor.) Nevertheless,
the task of developing skillful, validated mesoscale
ocean predictions, even in this limited-domain, is
a stunningly difficult task. The lack of a synoptic
observing network similar to that in the atmosphere is a major obstacle to success.
The essential elements for successful ocean
prediction are described in various portions of this
special issue and have been succinctly discussed
by Hurlburt (1984) and in the Proceedings of the
Ocean Prediction Workshop (1986). Table 1 indicates the various classes of ocean response to
atmospheric forcing and provides a convenient
nomenclature for the present discussion. We are
attempting to forecast for all classes on the basin
scale, but the primary emphasis is on Class II:
mesoscale instabilities not directly forced by surface wind and heat fluxes. Three essential requirements for successful predictions are l) adequate
input data for initial and boundary conditions, as
well as for validation; 2) adequate computational
capability for analysis, assimilation, and prediction; and 3) properly designed and tested ocean
models and assimilation schemes consistent with
the available data.
A whole series of basic scientific and technical
questions arise in undertaking ocean prediction
OCEANOGRAPHY-VoL5, No. 1-1992
Table 1
Classes of oceanic response to atmospheric forcing*
CLASS
EXAMPLE
IMPLICATIONS
1. STRONG, RAPID
(LESS THAN A
WEEK), AND
DIRECT
UPPER MIXED LAYER, SURFACE
WAVES, UPWELLING (BOTH
COASTAL AND EQUATORIAL
PROCESSES), STORM SURGES
2. SLOW (WEEKS
TO MONTHS)
AND INDIRECT
MESOSCALE EDDIES, MEANDERING
CURRENTS, FRONTAL LOCATIONS,
FEATURES RELATED TO FLOW
INSTABILITIES ON THE MESOSCALE
EL NINO; MUCH OF THE TROPICAL
OCEAN CIRCULATION; GYRES;
PAJTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH
GEOMETRIC CONSTRAINTS
(MEDITERRANEAN CIRCULATION)
3. SLOW (WEEKS
TO YEARS)
A N D DIRECT
FORECASTS ARE SHORT RANGE;
LIMITED BY ATMOSPHERIC
PREDICTIVE SKILL; LESS
SENSITIVE TO ERRORS IN
INITIAL STATE; MORE
SENSITIVE TO ERRORS IN
FORCING
FORECAST MAY HAVE RANGE OF
MONTH OR MORE; MORE
SENSITIVE TO INITIAL STATE; LESS
SENSITIVE TO ERRORS IN FORCING;
STATISTICS MAY BE PREDICTED
VIA SIMULATION; REQUIRES
OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC
DATA; ALTIMETER DATA
PROMISING
LONG RANGE FORECAST POSSIBLE;
SENSITIVE ONLY TO ERRORS IN
FORCING ON LONG TIME SCALE;
"NOWCASTING" AND FORECASTING
FEASIBLE USING OCEAN MODELS
WITH SPARSE OCEAN DATA
* Adapted from Hurlburt, 1984.
for the North Atlantic. Because the available operational data, particularly below the surface, is
so sparse (even for the "well-observed" Atlantic),
the demands on our prediction models and assimilation schemes are far greater than for the atmospheric equivalent. Although ocean simulation
is now a widely recognized tool for understanding
nonlinear, time-dependent ocean dynamics, proceeding to models for ocean prediction is a major
qualitative leap. We must still determine if our
best simulation models are also our best ocean
prediction models.
Simulation studies and at least rudimentary
prediction systems have been developed for each
class of forcing. In Class I, the global Thermodynamic Oceanographic Prediction System
(TOPS) mixed-layer forecast model was developed
at the Naval Ocean Research and Development
Activity (NORDA) in the early 1980s, drawing
on university and in-house research, and has been
operational at , Heet Numerical Oceanography
Center (FNOC) for several years (Clancy and Pollack, 1983; Rosmond, 1992, this issue). In Class
III, models are now being used for El Nino prediction with some apparent forecast skill (i.e.,
forecast capability) (Barnett et aL, 1988). A Class
II capability is now emerging, as we show below.
OCEANOGRAPHY.Vol. 5, No.
1.1992
Limited-Area Gulf Stream Models
For Class II problems, the first limited-area
Gulf Stream prediction models are now operational and have shown some forecast skill superior
to persistence (no change) at 1 and 2 weeks (Fox
et aL, 1991 and 1992, this issue; Robinson, 1992,
this issue). Figure 1 shows a simulated Gulf Stream
in a limited-area i~ ° horizontal-resolution twolayer model. The model design is basically as described by Thompson and Schmitz (1989). Elements of this simulation are specified constant
inflow transport, a radiation condition on the entire eastern boundary, bottom topography, and
mean wind forcing. The model is run to statistical
equilibrium. Thompson and Schmitz (1989)
demonstrate that a realistic mean Gulf Stream
path can be obtained in this model only if the
Deep Western Boundary Current is included as
an additional source of potential vorticity. Without it, the Gulf Stream "overshoots," hugging the
coast and separating near 40 ° N. This problem of
overshoot has been seen in a number of eddyresolving ocean models and is presently the subject
of substantial research (Cessi, 1990; Ezer and
Mellor, 1992). Although there are numerous alternative explanations (buoyancy and momentum
forcing, model resolution, model formulation, to-
We
must still
determine if our best
simulation models are
also our best ocean
prediction models.
37
pographic and coastal processes) hypothesized as
important in the separation process, much is still
unexplained. Thermodine ventilation to the north
of the G u l f Stream is likely to be a critical element
of the dynamics (Huang, 1991).
FREE
SURFACE
DEVIATION
DF =
45N
40N
10.0 CM
N. A T I . A N T I C
6 1 ~'3~1:2:
l.J
DATE = 336/0009
-1
Our work has shown that a realistic model climatology, including the mean path of the G u l f
Stream and recirculation, is an essential component of the forecast system. Using model statistics
to relate surface fields to subsurface fields, we obtain a dynamically consistent initial state using
surface information from infrared data, altimeter
data, and "feature models" (Hurlburt et al., 1990;
Fox et al., 1991). This initial state is critical for
forecasting the Gulf Stream evolution on time
scales of days to weeks. Large initial imbalances,
particularly at depth, can excite internal and external gravity waves as well as topographic Rossby
waves. These wave motions can swamp the true
field and destroy a forecast over the time scale of
interest.
35N
Basin-Scale Models
Although the limited-area modelling work is
shown to be feasible and skillful in the Gulf
Stream, it is clear that for longer time scales, wider
I i i ! i ! ! i ,
30N{g.I
I [ ! l ! ! ! I ~ l I ! ! i I
75W
70W
65W
60W
55W
coverage, and with a variety of assimilation
50W
45W
MIN = -71.511
MAX = 4 0 . 3 4 0
schemes expansion of the model to basin and
-INF-70
-60 -50
-40
-30 -20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
INF
global
scales is necessary. In the past decade,
,~-~
I
idealized basin-scale eddy-resolving models have
Fig. 1: Sea-surface height (cm) snapshot at year 10 from the Naval Research
become sufficiently realistic and the data suffiLaboratory Limited-Area Model of the Gulf Stream. The model has two
ciently extensive so that modelers and observalayers, with bottom topography, constant inflow (50 SV) and includes a Deep
tionalists have begun to compare their respective
Western Boundary Current (20 Sv). (1Sv = 50 × 10~ m ~ see-9.
results, particularly in the Gulf Stream System
(Schmitz and Holland, 1986). Limits on computational resources and data sources require
simplification and intelligent model design to
i::i:.-~"
"~' " r. .... "':::-: ,=- ~=-•
------"'~'~-~
¢:::::!=
maintain a feasible, cost-effective eddy-resolving
capability. Recently, physically comprehensive
basin-scale models of the North Atlantic nearly
50~..,.:..: ...... ::.: ..... ::'"':-~.~'~". / - i ~ ' - ~ ~ dl~Po
~<c.: ................
able to resolve eddies have been developed for the
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
elf
~ , ,.,
............ f:=2::=L.~-.:
World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE)
::::::::::::::::::::::::::
(~._£'r-~ p,,.~/ ~
~
:::::::.::,':~
,i "-~
in the Community Modeling Experiment (CME)
for multiyear simulations in ocean climate studies
(Bryan,
1990). Several other Atlantic basin-scale
~oN...
•
--,-~-..., ~
~
.............
~.................
or global models also have been developed but
are not yet truly eddy-resolving (Semtner and
~0~- . . . . ".'~
"::" , ~
\
================================ Chervin, 1988; Bleck and Smith, 1990).
Figure 2 shows a snapshot of sea-surface height
from the Navy's basin-scale eddy-resolving model
of the North Atlantic. This two-layer primitiveequation model is a descendent of the semi-imBQ'
~.-plicit layered formulation of Hurlburt and
Thompson (1980), where the model equations
have been vertically integrated through each layer.
10S'Laplacian friction and a quadratic bottom stress
are included. This version has closed boundaries
20S . . . . . .
and bottom topography and was driven by the
80W
60W
40W
20W
0
M1N = - , 5 2 . 8 1 9
MAX = 7 0 . 8 4 6
monthly wind stress climatology of Hellerman
-INF-50
-40 -30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
INF
and Rosenstein (1983) to statistical equilibrium
at 1 o horizontal resolution and then interpolated
Fig. 2: Sea-surface height (cm) snapshot of the basin-scale North Atlantic
to ~ o and the integrations continued. Computamodel at ~° horizontal resolution in year 17, forced by Hellerman-Rosenstein
tions were performed on the Navy's new Primary
(1983) monthly mean wind climatology. This is one of thefirst eddy-resolving
Ocean Prediction System (POPS-I) at the Naval
basin-scale models with realistic geometry run on the new Navy Cray YMP
Oceanographic Office, Stennis Space Center,
at the Naval Oceanographic Office.
Mississippi. The heart of POPS is a 128 million-
38
OCEANOGRAPHY.Vol.
5, N o . 1-1992
word, 8 processor CRAY YMP. The first results
on the new machine were obtained in late 1990,
and currently both local and remote laboratory
and university users are supported. Note that
in Figure 2 both Gulf Stream meanders and
cold and warm core rings are simulated by the
model.
Although Figure 2 shows results from a closed
basin, it is clear that a thermally driven, crossequatorial flow from the South Atlantic is an
important c o m p o n e n t of the Gulf Stream transport. Recently the Atlantic "conveyor belt,"
which includes the thermohaline contribution
to the flow, has received particular attention in
relation to ocean climate (Gordon, 1986).
Schmitz and Richardson ( 1991) have estimated
that nearly one-half of the transport in the Florida Current has its origin in the South Atlantic.
Thus, the thermohaline component of the G u l f
Stream System must be taken into account, even
in relatively short-time-scale mesoscale prediction. Figure 3 shows results from two identical
1.5-layer reduced-gravity model experiments at
~o horizontal resolution driven to statistical
equilibrium by the monthly mean winds of
Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983). One experiment is with a closed basin. The other experiment is with a 15-Sv inflow-outflow included,
with the source being a 20°-wide prescribed inflow at 20°S and the sink occurring at 60°N,
also through a 20°-wide open boundary. Note
that the eddy kinetic energy maximum in the
Gulf Stream region is nearly a factor of three
larger in the experiment with South Atlantic inflow. Also note the highly energized equatorial
wave guide in the experiment with inflow. The
dynamics of cross-equatorial flows and related
instability processes is an exciting topic of current basic research (Kawase et al., 1990).
EDDY KINETIC
LAYER = 1
ENERGY/MASS
DE = 0 . 2 5 0
N Atlantic
62511:1:
2.1
M Z / S 2 (LOG)
60b
1NF
1
-1,25
I
50>
-I.50
im
-1.75
403
1
-2.00
-2.25
30?
-2.50
-2.75
20?
1
-3.00
1
107
-3.25
-3,50
1
-3.75
-4.00
1
10~
-.I . 2 5
I
-INF
205
.qOW
80W
70W
60W
501Y
MIN = - 9 . 3 4 9 8
W.R.T. YR 16 T 0
40W
30W
MAX = - 1 . 1 7 9 5
18 A N N U A L
'2(IW
1 fill
c
MEAN
(A)
EDDY
LAYER
KINETIC
= I
ENERGY/MASS
DE
N Atlantic
02511:1:21.1
= 0.250 M Z / S 2 (LOG)
c-'-
INF
1
-1.25
1
-1.50
1
-1.75
1
-2.00
-2.25
-2.50
Model/Data Comparisons
Validating basin-scale models for mesoscale
prediction is itself an important research activity.
Finding appropriate measures for comparison is
not always straightforward. The deep eddykinetic-energy field is particularly illuminating
for model/data comparisons (Thompson and
Schmitz, 1989), as are comparisons of model seasurface-height variability with altimetry (Hallock
et al., 1989). Another interesting data set for validation is the long-term transport measurements
of the Florida Current. A 10-year time series is
now available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Subtropical
Atlantic Climate Studies (STACS) program
(Schott et al., 1988), using submarine electromagnetic cable estimates calibrated by direct velocity observations between Jupiter, Florida and
Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island near
27°N. The daily STACS data have been low-pass
filtered (30-40 day cutoff) and are plotted in Fig-
~EAN~RAPHY-Vol.
5, No. 1-1992
1
-2.75
1
-3.00
1
-3.25
-3.50
I
-3.76
II
-4.00
1
-4.25
1
-INF
9OW
80W
70W
60W
50W
MIN = - 6 . 5 0 5 4
40W
30W
MAX = - 0 . 7 4 0 1
20W
10W
0
W.R.T. YR 1 8 TO 2 0 ANNUAL MEAN
(B)
Fig. 3: Contours for the log o f eddy kinetic energy from a 1.5-1ayer reducedgravity model driven by Hellerman-Rosenstein (1983) monthly mean winds
to statistical equilibrium: (A) in a closed basin and (B) with a 15-Sv South
Atlantic inflow and a high-latitude outflow. M a x i m u m eddy kinetic energy
is 0.07 m 2 s -2 and 0.19 m 2 s -2 in A and B, respectively.
39
Florida
Straits
Observed
Transport
1982-1989
and Simulated
Observed From Cable Data
Model Cycle A
Model Cycle B
45- - -
40-
~35-
..~
0
III
25
Model
20
JAN82
" jAN83
set-ups
A and
" jANS~I
B a r e i d e n t i c a l e x c e p t for initial s t a t e a n o m a l i e s
" jAN85
" jAN86
" JAN87
JAN88
JAN89
JANg0
¢A)
Mean
4
- -
Florida
Annual
Straits
Cycle
Transport
Over 1982-1989
Observed From Cable Data
Model
- ECMWF/HR
Model - ECMWF/iiR
(A)
(B)
3.
eL
t_
@
•4
1.
..~
o
~ -1.
0
e~
~I _'~11
L
..4-
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apt
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
(B)
Fig. 4."(A) Calibrated cable-estimated volume transport of the Florida Current
from the Subtropical Atlantic Climate Studies Program (STACS) at 27°N
(courtesy Jimmy Larsen, NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory,
Seattle) versus model-determined transport for two different 8-year cycles of
the same European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts windforcing. Observations and model data were low-pass filtered (30-40 day cutoff)
and plotted daily. (B) The annual cycle of transport from the STACS data
and from the two model cycles.
40
ure 4A. Note the mean transport is near 32.5 Sv and
the maximum transport occurs on the summer.
Earlier models have shown the summertime
transport maximum observed in the STACS Program. For example, Anderson and Corry (1985)
used a non-eddy-resolving two-layer basin-scale
model driven by monthly mean wind anomalies
from Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983). Rhodes
and Heburn (1986) used a global, coarse-grid reduced-gravity model driven by FNOC operational
wind fields. However, both models failed to account for the large amplitude of the annual cycle
of transport and the magnitude of the mean
transport.
In Figure 4A, we also have plotted transports
from a three-layer, finite-depth model driven to
equilibrium by the monthly mean climatological
winds (Hellerman and Rosenstein, 1983) for 70
years and then run for more than two 8-year cycles
of winds having the annual mean from Hellerman
and Rosenstein (1983), but anomalies about the
mean from the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational
winds. This is one of the few long time series from
an operational center that has a reasonably consistent wind field from year to year. Constant
South Atlantic inflow was specified from estimates
of Schmitz and Richardson (1991) and high-latitude water-mass formation was parameterized via
entrainment/detrainment and a source-sink flow.
We have plotted two wind cycles to show the interannual differences in transport from the model
due to differences in initial state and nonlinear
processes, including influences of Loop Current
eddy shedding in the Gulf of Mexico. Two important results from this experiment are clear: I)
The mean transport of the model current is nearly
identical to that observed. The South Atlantic inflow comprises about 13 Sv of this total. 2) The
amplitude of the fluctuations in transport are
comparable to those observed, including the
summertime maximum and the rapid decrease in
transport in the fall. The annual cycle, as shown
in Figure 4B, also is reproduced well by the model.
These results give us some confidence in both the
model and the forcing functions.
Finally, although we are rapidly pushing toward
an eddy-resolving basin-scale prediction capability
in NOMP, we should note that a global, non-eddyresolving model driven by FNOC Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
(NOGAPS) winds is running on a daily basis under an operational evaluation program. Figure 5
is a snapshot of the sea-surface height for 25 January 1992 from this ~°, reduced-gravity model.
It is clearly only a preliminary version of the model
we hope will eventually be running on a routine
basis with data-assimilation and eddy-resolving
capability. However, as discussed in the article by
Hurlburt et al., (1992, this issue), we are rapidly
approaching the day when this capability will be
realized.
O C E A N O G R A P H Y - V o l . 5, No. 1-1992
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Navy Ocean
Modeling and Prediction Program (Bob Peloquin,
Program Manager), under the Global Ocean Prediction System project (Program elements
62435N and 63207N), the Naval Research Laboratory's Global Eddy-Resolving Ocean Model
basic research program, and the Office of Naval
Research Accelerated Research Initiative entitled
"Ocean Dynamics from GEOSAT." Discussions
with Harley Hurlburt and George Maul have been
especially useful.
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OCEANOGRAPHY-Vol.5, No. 1,1992
t30W
-INF-45
-35
-25
-15
60W
MIN = - 5 1 . 6 0 2
-5
5
15
25
35
.lOW
;.' 0'~
MAX = 5 4 . 7 5 0
.1550
t)
INF
Fig. 5: Sea-surface height (cm) from a global non-eddy-resolving reducedgravity ocean model driven by operational Fleet Numerical Oceanography
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41